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RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,102
Good law for those of us living in 2050

but it's not retro active so it will do nothing to stop the damage about to be done the next three decades
Not particularly true. If Biden got two terms then it'd be 7-6 within 8 years and that's not counting Thomas dying or something.

And I've seen no one at all that thinks we can retroactively hit sitting justices with term limits.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,956

This would mean Thomas (Bush) being forced out at Biden's year 1, and Breyer (Clinton) being forced out at year 3, and since Breyer is already 82 he'd likely be replaced during Biden's term anyway. Next Pres would replace two R's, and next Pres after that replace two D's, unless someone dies/retires early. So that would effectively make the court 5-4.

Unless Kamala is Pres in 2024, and she gets to replace the two R's?

Good luck forcing term limits retroactively. I can't see that passing through the courts.
 

thefro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,996
Good luck forcing term limits retroactively. I can't see that passing through the courts.

The best way would be to expand the court first in a separate law, then pass term limits/the "senior status" bill once you have the new justices installed who you know are votes to hold "senior status" Constitutional.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,102
This would mean Thomas (Bush) being forced out at Biden's year 1, and Breyer (Clinton) being forced out at year 3, and since Breyer is already 82 he'd likely be replaced during Biden's term anyway. Next Pres would replace two R's, and next Pres after that replace two D's, unless someone dies/retires early. So that would effectively make the court 5-4.

Unless Kamala is Pres in 2024, and she gets to replace the two R's?

Good luck forcing term limits retroactively. I can't see that passing through the courts.
Sitting justices are exempt from the term limits rule.
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
How would a justice ever reach 18 years once all of the current judges are cycled out? If a president is appointing someone every 2 years each term, a justice at most would have an "active" role of what, 12 years or so? I guess that's the point? Or does a president only get to appoint in year 1 and 3, but none if re-elected to a second term. Although, what if they serve non-consecutive terms?

It's not a terrible plan I guess and it does seem to recognize the importance of institutional knowledge.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
We have the longest Democratic Senator drought in the nation; the last time Kansas elected one was in 1932. If this was the final result for the election it would be absolutely disastrous for the GOP.
yeah that is a huge swing and if states like kansas are swinging this way this shit is going to a landslide for democrats nationwide.
 

Culex

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
6,844
If Kansas truly ends at +6 for Trump on election night, that means blowout loss to Biden.
 

nexus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,645
Is it bad that I feel like we should just let them get their justice in, then hopefully it drives more turnout towards the dems and we can win the senate back (hopefully)? I feel like it's an easier fight to say how much trump sucks and how covid isn't being taken care of than them trying to fight about a justice.

If we can win it all back then hopefully dems will just expand the court.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
Is it bad that I feel like we should just let them get their justice in, then hopefully it drives more turnout towards the dems and we can win the senate back (hopefully)? I feel like it's an easier fight to say how much trump sucks and how covid isn't being taken care of than them trying to fight about a justice.

If we can win it all back then hopefully dems will just expand the court.
i think they could fight hard, but they have the votes to do it either way. its still pissing off a lot of people.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,885
Attica Scott, the only black woman in the Kentucky legislature and a great rep, was arrested and charged with rioting last night, all for being part of a protest after curfew. Fucking disgusting.

www.wave3.com

Rep. Attica Scott, 23 others charged with rioting, unlawful assembly in Louisville

Protests resumed in downtown Louisville on Thursday as many of the 127 protesters arrested the night before were released from jail.

The cops are frightened and making stupid mistakes. If you're trying to tamp-down her legislation, you don't go full V for Vendetta and make her into a symbol of your own lawlessness.

They're hardening protesters resolve, not dispiriting them with this kind of heavy-handed bullshit
 

Hedge

Member
Oct 26, 2017
408
Term limits period aren't allowed by legislation. It would require a constitutional amendment.

I thought we have some of the SC justices on the record, including Roberts, for term limits on the SC judges.

And I thought the work around on the good behavior clause was to cycle term limited SC justices back to the lower courts. The constitution references in the above mentioned clause can be construed as any federal judgeship. So moving them to another federal court stays within the constitution
 

Mcfrank

Member
Oct 28, 2017
15,201
Is it bad that I feel like we should just let them get their justice in, then hopefully it drives more turnout towards the dems and we can win the senate back (hopefully)? I feel like it's an easier fight to say how much trump sucks and how covid isn't being taken care of than them trying to fight about a justice.

If we can win it all back then hopefully dems will just expand the court.
My worry is dems won't have the spine.
 

BWoog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
38,264
Sometimes I really think the majority of Democrat representatives want what Republicans want, I really do.
 

Gpsych

Member
May 20, 2019
2,890
I don't understand how Biden went from a +9 in Az in an A+ poll (and other polls just a bit below that) to now it being basically a toss-up with Trump even slightly ahead in a matter of a week. Makes me think that polling for Az is all kinds of messed up.
 

The Albatross

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,985
Not sure I believe this Kansas poll or that it's really representative. I'd Trump is only +6 in Kansas, a state he won by about +20 in 2016, then I think he'd have much lower than the 42-46% approval rating that he's had. If Kansas is not a home run +15 for Trump, which is like his most dedicated base, then I think it'd show the bottom has fallen out on his support and he'd plummet below 40% approval.
 

Wraith

Member
Jun 28, 2018
8,892

Rachel Sachs @RESachs

The Trump Administration is pledging to borrow almost $7b in potential future savings from a program that does not yet exist to send $200 prescription drug discount cards to some Medicare beneficiaries "in the coming weeks."

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC

The President is STEALING SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS from the Treasury to buy votes for his re-election. This is perhaps the single most corrupt act in American history; its more money than both parties will likely spend in all campaigns, combined. Scale of it is incredible.
www.statnews.com

Trump promises seniors $200 prescription drug gift certificates, but questions abound

Trump pledged to send $200 prescription drug coupons to 33 million Medicare beneficiaries “in the coming weeks,” a nakedly political ploy to curry favor with seniors.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
If Kansas truly ends at +6 for Trump on election night, that means blowout loss to Biden.
More importantly, it positions Bollier well to win the Senate race - I have a very hard time picturing a substantial number of Biden/Republican-downticket voters this go-round, especially in Kansas where one of Bollier's specific appeals is she was elected as a Republican in 2018 and then left the party.

house might see a shit load of gains too.
There's probably a ceiling on House gains but I would love it if we saw 250+ in the House.

I'm guessing 240 which would still be a gain.

I don't understand how Biden went from a +9 in Az in an A+ poll (and other polls just a bit below that) to now it being basically a toss-up with Trump even slightly ahead in a matter of a week. Makes me think that polling for Az is all kinds of messed up.
Arizona has a high Latino population which makes it difficult to poll, Nevada has a similar problem.
 

Geg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,539
I don't understand how Biden went from a +9 in Az in an A+ poll (and other polls just a bit below that) to now it being basically a toss-up with Trump even slightly ahead in a matter of a week. Makes me think that polling for Az is all kinds of messed up.
Yeah I was just looking at that. Lot of weird state polling recently.
 

SquirrelSr

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,015

Rachel Sachs @RESachs

The Trump Administration is pledging to borrow almost $7b in potential future savings from a program that does not yet exist to send $200 prescription drug discount cards to some Medicare beneficiaries "in the coming weeks."

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC

The President is STEALING SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS from the Treasury to buy votes for his re-election. This is perhaps the single most corrupt act in American history; its more money than both parties will likely spend in all campaigns, combined. Scale of it is incredible.
www.statnews.com

Trump promises seniors $200 prescription drug gift certificates, but questions abound

Trump pledged to send $200 prescription drug coupons to 33 million Medicare beneficiaries “in the coming weeks,” a nakedly political ploy to curry favor with seniors.

The orange desperately wants to buy votes by sending checks and cards with his name on them.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
A modest lead in Kansas falls in line with Trump only leading whites overall about 6 or so and the education demos of Kansas being pretty decent

Ill also once again say anyone who was happy Kobach did not win the primary needs to go stick their head in the fucking toilet and flush several times
 

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
The cops are frightened and making stupid mistakes. If you're trying to tamp-down her legislation, you don't go full V for Vendetta and make her into a symbol of your own lawlessness.

They're hardening protesters resolve, not dispiriting them with this kind of heavy-handed bullshit
I hope so. The goal seems so far away, given we'd have to pass laws over the opposition of a 61-37 GOP-controlled state house and a 29-9(!) GOP-controlled state senate. I have to work not to get dispirited about everything. But the protests do raise my morale. And, as you say, it couldn't be clearer what the system is or what we're up against.
 

Casa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,501
So last week it was "oh shit, Arizona is looking great but those PA polls look scary."

Now it's "oh shit, those PA polls are looking great again but Arizona is now looking scary close."

Should we even concern ourselves with polls that swing so wildly in such a short time? Seems ridiculous that any state can swing nearly 10 points in a week or two.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
So last week it was "oh shit, Arizona is looking great but those PA polls look scary."

Now it's "oh shit, those PA polls are looking great again but Arizona is now looking scary close."

Should we even concern ourselves with polls that swing so wildly in such a short time? Seems ridiculous that any state can swing nearly 10 points in a week or two.
throw them on the pile and only look at aggregators reacting to single polls doesnt really mean much. the aggregate means more.
 

Zyrokai

Member
Nov 1, 2017
4,247
Columbus, Ohio
I'm feeling pretty good today heading into the weekend. It took a week for me, especially after RBG's death, but yesterdays polls and my NOT panicking about stacked Electors has helped a lot. SCOTUS still hurts, but I'm feeling decently OK for today. I hope it lasts the whole weekend and something vehemently horribly doesn't come out.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
I'm feeling pretty good today heading into the weekend. It took a week for me, especially after RBG's death, but yesterdays polls and my NOT panicking about stacked Electors has helped a lot. SCOTUS still hurts, but I'm feeling decently OK for today. I hope it lasts the whole weekend and something vehemently horribly doesn't come out.
I feel way better than 2016. I'll tell you that. I think we will be able to move forward this decade.
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,956
That set of DFP Arizona polls is strange. They have Trump +1, but Kelly at +9. I mean, ticket-splitting does happen, but are there really that many Trump/Kelly voters for there to be such a gulf?
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
I think I might have just gotten polled by PPP in Texas. It was a text invitation to fill out a form. Looks like the underlying form was powered by SurveyMonkey, so not sure if that counts as a PPP poll or a SurveyMonkey one. It only asked about presidential approvals and voting intention. Nothing on the Senate.
 

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
15,784
The RNC keeps calling my house, but when they hear the glee in my voice, they disconnect.
Talk to me you cowards!
 

Antrax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,276
He seems to be doing well with the 50-65 crowd (youngest 10 years of the boomers, oldest 5 of Gen X). I have a theory that that's in part due to that demographic being most concerned about stick prices since they are approaching retirement.

But it might also be that these are the people who came of age under Nixon, Carter, and Reagan.

It's the latter I think.

And if you had to describe a voter that you were confident was in Trump's corner, you pick a white guy in his late 50s with no college degree. I can't find the data right now, but I'm pretty sure you can add divorced. If someone fits that whole description, they're probably as much of a pro-Nixon/pro-Trump culture warrior as you can get.
 

Wraith

Member
Jun 28, 2018
8,892
Florida has now removed all capacity restrictions on bars and restaurants. Combined with no mask mandate, I'm sure this will work out great.
www.tampabay.com

DeSantis lifts statewide restrictions on bars and restaurants as Florida moves to phase 3

The governor said local governments will have to justify any restrictions on capacity.
Florida is lifting all state restrictions on the capacity on bars and restaurants as it moves into the third of its three-phase reopening plan, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Friday during a press conference in St. Petersburg.

DeSantis said he would sign an order Friday that would guarantee restaurants the right to operate at a minimum of 50 percent capacity. He said his order would preempt local rules forcing restaurant closure and would make municipalities justify any rules that would limit capacity between 50 percent and 100 percent.

DeSantis said the move to phase three is happening immediately. The move largely rolls back the restrictions that were put in place as the state tried to deal with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Florida Senate President Bill Galvano, R-Bradenton, joined DeSantis at the press conference at The Birchwood on Beach Drive, along with some local restaurateurs. He thanked DeSantis for his measured approach on the economy and the coronavirus.
Looking at some other recent headlines:
www.tampabay.com

Florida passes 14,000 coronavirus deaths mark Friday

The state also recorded 2,847 coronavirus cases.
www.tampabay.com

Party on: Gov. DeSantis says colleges should ease up, as cases mount

A roundup of Florida education news from around the state.
www.tampabay.com

Florida coronavirus cases tick up in September, stalling progress

And the number of COVID-19 hospital patients is no longer dropping.
www.tampabay.com

Florida adds 2,541 coronavirus cases and 179 deaths Thursday

The state has recorded just under 14,000 coronavirus deaths since March.
 
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