US PoliEra 2020 |OT7| Good Trouble

wesker83 · Aug 6, 2020

Plinko said:
Fantastic response to Trump's attack on Biden's faith.

And the replies to that tweet will surprise no one. Biden doesn't practice religion because his religion doesn't allow abortion or same sex marriages blah blah blah.

Fucking hypocritical asshats these evangelicals are supporting a porn star fucking, adulterous, pedophile, probably rapist, and vulgarian Trump. But Biden supports pro-choice and gay marriage so he is the problem. Totally rational thinking that is.

BrokenFiction · Aug 7, 2020

devilhawk · Aug 7, 2020

Chaos Legion said:
I'm going to throw up. Why'd I watch this again.

Not really anywhere comparable. In 2016 you had polls with 15-25% undecided at this point. A poll with a similar differential but far fewer undecided is a much different poll.

cartoon_soldier · Aug 7, 2020

devilhawk said:
Not really anywhere comparable. In 2016 you had polls with 15-25% undecided at this point. A poll with a similar differential but far fewer undecided is a much different poll.

In 2016 Trump led polls at some points too...he hasn't yet at least.

But this was also the post convention bump for Hillary which she squandered away going on a 1 month fundraising jaunt. Biden has to be careful and not disappear from the spotlight completely.

SwordsmanofS · Aug 7, 2020

Most importantly of all: polls in 2016 were not weighted by education. Everyone in the polling world now knows that was the big indicator as to why polls were 'off'. (Again, even if they were 'off', the were still technically within the margin of error at the end, so it's not like it was too bad.) Now they know, and account for it.

A big example of pollsters correcting their polling misses was seen in the UK last year. After 'missing' the polling on Brexit and Teresa May's election, they course corrected and fixed their models. The result was in 2019 it showed that the Conservatives would win a substantial majority. Polls all throughout showed that. And despite what many in UK Era wanted to believe, Corbyn was uniquely unpopular and polls showing a tightening of the race were way off. Polling done long before hand proved true: Conservative won massively that night. Polling caught it, because they adjusted and learned from their mistakes in the past. We're seeing the same here Stateside.

I've said it before, but I look back to that Virginia election in 2017 as either the canary in the coal mine for what was to come. Despite being a local election, it had the nation's attention and as such was nationalized. Why? Because the whole thing became a referendum on Trump and Trumpism, even if no one stated it outright. Though everyone treated it that way.

That Governors race? Many polls had Moderate Democrat Northam up on Trump-lite Gillispi(sp?) by like 10 for much of the race. The polls tightened as time went on, and a few polls had the thing as a toss up. The end result? Northam by like 10. It was a complete rout. More importantly, it was seen as a rejection of Trump.

I'd say 2016 was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. 2020 is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump.

I'm tired; thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

plagiarize · Aug 7, 2020

SwordsmanofS said:
Most importantly of all: polls in 2016 were not weighted by education. Everyone in the polling world now knows that was the big indicator as to why polls were 'off'. (Again, even if they were 'off', the were still technically within the margin of error at the end, so it's not like it was too bad.) Now they know, and account for it.

A big example of pollsters correcting their polling misses was seen in the UK last year. After 'missing' the polling on Brexit and Teresa May's election, they course corrected and fixed their models. The result was in 2019 it showed that the Conservatives would win a substantial majority. Polls all throughout showed that. And despite what many in UK Era wanted to believe, Corbyn was uniquely unpopular and polls showing a tightening of the race were way off. Polling done long before hand proved true: Conservative won massively that night. Polling caught it, because they adjusted and learned from their mistakes in the past. We're seeing the same here Stateside.

I've said it before, but I look back to that Virginia election in 2017 as either the canary in the coal mine for what was to come. Despite being a local election, it had the nation's attention and as such was nationalized. Why? Because the whole thing became a referendum on Trump and Trumpism, even if no one stated it outright. Though everyone treated it that way.

That Governors race? Many polls had Moderate Democrat Northam up on Trump-lite Gillispi(sp?) by like 10 for much of the race. The polls tightened as time went on, and a few polls had the thing as a toss up. The end result? Northam by like 10. It was a complete rout. More importantly, it was seen as a rejection of Trump.

I'd say 2016 was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. 2020 is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump.

I'm tired; thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

It was a good TED talk.

GrapeApes · Aug 7, 2020

Carpetbagger turned Fox News contributor Dan Bongino loses his frivolous defamation lawsuit against The Daily Beast. Bongino also has to pay the Beast's attorneys' fees.

Sean C. · Aug 7, 2020

wesker83 said:
And the replies to that tweet will surprise no one. Biden doesn't practice religion because his religion doesn't allow abortion or same sex marriages blah blah blah.

Fucking hypocritical asshats these evangelicals are supporting a porn star fucking, adulterous, pedophile, probably rapist, and vulgarian Trump. But Biden supports pro-choice and gay marriage so he is the problem. Totally rational thinking that is.

Conservative evangelicals have been obviously full of it ever since they vilified Carter, the most rigorously pious occupant of the Oval Office in recent history.

Deleted member 34788 · Aug 7, 2020

Little cold on MSNBC polls even though I do like Kornacki a lot, the lovable stat nerd, but holy shit at 125 electoral votes

Can here the panic alarms being set off in trumps campaign all the way across the pond.

Chaos Legion · Aug 7, 2020

SwordsmanofS said:
Most importantly of all: polls in 2016 were not weighted by education. Everyone in the polling world now knows that was the big indicator as to why polls were 'off'. (Again, even if they were 'off', the were still technically within the margin of error at the end, so it's not like it was too bad.) Now they know, and account for it.

A big example of pollsters correcting their polling misses was seen in the UK last year. After 'missing' the polling on Brexit and Teresa May's election, they course corrected and fixed their models. The result was in 2019 it showed that the Conservatives would win a substantial majority. Polls all throughout showed that. And despite what many in UK Era wanted to believe, Corbyn was uniquely unpopular and polls showing a tightening of the race were way off. Polling done long before hand proved true: Conservative won massively that night. Polling caught it, because they adjusted and learned from their mistakes in the past. We're seeing the same here Stateside.

I've said it before, but I look back to that Virginia election in 2017 as either the canary in the coal mine for what was to come. Despite being a local election, it had the nation's attention and as such was nationalized. Why? Because the whole thing became a referendum on Trump and Trumpism, even if no one stated it outright. Though everyone treated it that way.

That Governors race? Many polls had Moderate Democrat Northam up on Trump-lite Gillispi(sp?) by like 10 for much of the race. The polls tightened as time went on, and a few polls had the thing as a toss up. The end result? Northam by like 10. It was a complete rout. More importantly, it was seen as a rejection of Trump.

I'd say 2016 was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. 2020 is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump.

I'm tired; thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

It's a reassuring TED Talk.

Richiek · Aug 7, 2020

Trump Is Anxious That Joe Biden Is Going To Pick Kamala Harris For VP

According to Nicolle Wallace, the Trump political operation is most anxious that Biden will pick Sen. Kamala Harris to be his running mate.

www.politicususa.com

Just do it already Biden. Announce Harris as VP.

Greigor the FellHand · Aug 7, 2020

Richiek said:
Trump Is Anxious That Joe Biden Is Going To Pick Kamala Harris For VP

According to Nicolle Wallace, the Trump political operation is most anxious that Biden will pick Sen. Kamala Harris to be his running mate.

www.politicususa.com

Just do it already Biden. Announce Harris as VP.

Trump &pence : " if he chooses Harris we might slip up and say really bad words, ahh fuck"

AniHawk · Aug 7, 2020

SwordsmanofS said:
Most importantly of all: polls in 2016 were not weighted by education. Everyone in the polling world now knows that was the big indicator as to why polls were 'off'. (Again, even if they were 'off', the were still technically within the margin of error at the end, so it's not like it was too bad.) Now they know, and account for it.

A big example of pollsters correcting their polling misses was seen in the UK last year. After 'missing' the polling on Brexit and Teresa May's election, they course corrected and fixed their models. The result was in 2019 it showed that the Conservatives would win a substantial majority. Polls all throughout showed that. And despite what many in UK Era wanted to believe, Corbyn was uniquely unpopular and polls showing a tightening of the race were way off. Polling done long before hand proved true: Conservative won massively that night. Polling caught it, because they adjusted and learned from their mistakes in the past. We're seeing the same here Stateside.

I've said it before, but I look back to that Virginia election in 2017 as either the canary in the coal mine for what was to come. Despite being a local election, it had the nation's attention and as such was nationalized. Why? Because the whole thing became a referendum on Trump and Trumpism, even if no one stated it outright. Though everyone treated it that way.

That Governors race? Many polls had Moderate Democrat Northam up on Trump-lite Gillispi(sp?) by like 10 for much of the race. The polls tightened as time went on, and a few polls had the thing as a toss up. The end result? Northam by like 10. It was a complete rout. More importantly, it was seen as a rejection of Trump.

I'd say 2016 was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. 2020 is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump.

I'm tired; thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

with election after election in 2017, 2018, and 2019 we see that mostly, people have been turning against republicans. 2018 was the fifth highest turnout for us house races in us history (behind '04, '08, '12, and '16). and a healthy majority of democrats turned out in michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin (7-10 point wins each!). even in 2018, more democrats showed up than republicans in arizona. polls are telling people what's been going on there for years already.

the only states polling well for biden that i find surprising are florida (which seemed to be trending away from democrats), georgia (which moved super fast towards them so this is mostly whiplash), and texas (out of sheer disbelief).

Witness · Aug 7, 2020

Richiek said:
Trump Is Anxious That Joe Biden Is Going To Pick Kamala Harris For VP

According to Nicolle Wallace, the Trump political operation is most anxious that Biden will pick Sen. Kamala Harris to be his running mate.

www.politicususa.com

Just do it already Biden. Announce Harris as VP.

Good. Now fucking announce it already.

Plinko · Aug 7, 2020

Are polls being weighted by education now?

TheHunter · Aug 7, 2020

Plinko said:
Are polls being weighted by education now?

Yes.

Midnight Jon · Aug 7, 2020

Plinko said:
Are polls being weighted by education now?

for the most part, yeah

Korigama · Aug 7, 2020

Richiek said:
Trump Is Anxious That Joe Biden Is Going To Pick Kamala Harris For VP

According to Nicolle Wallace, the Trump political operation is most anxious that Biden will pick Sen. Kamala Harris to be his running mate.

www.politicususa.com

Just do it already Biden. Announce Harris as VP.

Indeed, all the more reason to finally do it.

cameron · Aug 7, 2020

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: five more House rating changes today, including four in Democrats' direction - and two veteran House Rs moving into our Toss Up column.

#AZ06 Rep. David Schweikert (R) and #MO02 Rep. Ann Wagner (R) represent near-100% suburban districts where President Trump's numbers have tanked since 2016. That these districts would be Toss Ups in 2020 would have been semi-unthinkable at the beginning of the decade.

8:56 AM · Aug 7, 2020

Midnight Jon · Aug 7, 2020

personally think it's even wilder that there's a Likely Democratic district in Kansas

e: well would you look at that

cameron · Aug 7, 2020

Trump, losing his grip on GOP, wields less influence as crises mount

President Trump is losing his grip on congressional Republicans and is facing pushback on delaying the election and false claims about mail-in voting.

www.latimes.com

WASHINGTON — Less than three months before election day, evidence is mounting that President Trump is losing political influence in Washington and facing the early onset of "lame duck" status as Republican leaders in Congress increasingly appear willing to defy or rebuff him.

In recent days, GOP lawmakers who once saluted — or at least didn't publicly oppose — Trump initiatives have thrown cold water on some of his ideas and proposals — rejecting his suggestion to delay the Nov. 3 election, repudiating his unsubstantiated claims that mail-in-voting leads to mass fraud, eliminating funds for a new FBI headquarters across from his hotel, and snubbing his calls for a payroll tax cut.

--------------------------------

Trump is "not really a player in these negotiations," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist. "He does not have much political capital to spend on [Capitol Hill.]"

"Congressional Republicans don't want to cross Trump, but they also don't want to carry his water," Conant said.

Trump's disengagement from the nitty-gritty of governing is not new. Nor is his penchant for contradicting his own administration on matters large and small.

But after nearly four years of daily presidential mistruths, polls show a strong majority of Americans don't trust what Trump says about the pandemic, or his bizarre claims of success in fighting it — a distinct liability as he faces reelection with nearly 160,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 and an economy in tatters.

Now as he enters the twilight of his first term with dimming prospects for a second, the president is finding that Republicans are notably less willing to indulge his inclinations, ideas and persistent magical thinking amid a seemingly never-ending national crisis.

"He has lost a great deal of his personal power," said David Gergen, a counselor to four presidents. "He still has his constitutional powers, and, if anything, he's pushing more against the limits of those. But he's lost the ability to rally people behind him and there's no one thing he can do as president to turn this around.

"Most Republicans know that," Gergen continued. "So increasingly, it becomes every man or woman for themselves."

Mac_Lane · Aug 7, 2020

Yikes about that latest jobs report. So much for the V-shaped recovery predicted by that hack Kudlow.

TheHunter · Aug 7, 2020

You see the 1.8 million added jobs I see that 50% of all jobs lost are gone for good.

US employers hire 1.8M despite new COVID-19 shutdowns

The Labor Department's July jobs report, released Friday, shed light on the labor market's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

www.foxbusiness.com

lmcfigs · Aug 7, 2020

Mac_Lane said:
Yikes about that latest jobs report. So much for the V-shaped recovery predicted by that hack Kudlow.

it's not looking good. but if 56% or so of the unemployed right now are positive that their situation is temporary, then that would point to a relatively quick recovery when we are able to minimize the spread of the virus. If we also look at wages - they've barely moved even as the unemployment rate skyrocketed. These are promising signs if only we didn't handle the virus so poorly.

Sheepinator · Aug 7, 2020

TheHunter said:
You see the 1.8 million added jobs I see that 50% of all jobs lost are gone for good.

US employers hire 1.8M despite new COVID-19 shutdowns

The Labor Department's July jobs report, released Friday, shed light on the labor market's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

www.foxbusiness.com

I wrote about that 1.76M gain elsewhere here. First, the BLS still has a problem counting misclassified workers, which they said this month would put the unemployment rate 1% higher than they reported. Second, based on the DoL's weekly reports which track states data, the drop in unemployment reported by the states was 0.466M. The BLS uses "surveys" to arrive at a number almost 4x larger. These are the two latest examples for why I refer to them as the Bureau of Lies and Statistics.

TheHunter · Aug 7, 2020

Sheepinator said:
I wrote about that 1.76M gain elsewhere here. First, the BLS still has a problem counting misclassified workers, which they said this month would put the unemployment rate 1% higher than they reported. Second, based on the DoL's weekly reports which track states data, the drop in unemployment reported by the states was 0.466M. The BLS uses "surveys" to arrive at a number almost 4x larger. These are the two latest examples for why I refer to them as the Bureau of Lies and Statistics.

Got a thread in OT.

cameron · Aug 7, 2020

Right-wing media defanged as anti-Biden storylines disintegrate

The anti-Biden storylines that generated the most traction in the past year have disappeared.

www.axios.com

-------------------------------

shadow_shogun · Aug 7, 2020

@mkraju
New - US officials have presented intel to lawmakers and the campaigns indicating Russia is behind a disinformation push targeting Biden. But just like 2016, the two parties are at odds over what it means and how much to disclose. w/⁦@ZcohenCNN⁩

Intel officials tell Congress that Russia is spreading false information about Biden | CNN Politics

US intelligence officials have presented information to lawmakers and presidential campaigns indicating Russia is behind an ongoing disinformation push targeting former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, according to sources familiar with the matter.

t.co

https://t.co/0InOWyM4ks?amp=1
10:06 AM · Aug 7, 2020

Sheepinator · Aug 7, 2020

3-day golfing weekend, must be nice! With some grift on the side too. Why not? Nothing important going on in the country anyway.

lmcfigs · Aug 7, 2020

poor guy wore himself out

Tackleberry · Aug 7, 2020

wesker83 said:
And the replies to that tweet will surprise no one. Biden doesn't practice religion because his religion doesn't allow abortion or same sex marriages blah blah blah.

Fucking hypocritical asshats these evangelicals are supporting a porn star fucking, adulterous, pedophile, probably rapist, and vulgarian Trump. But Biden supports pro-choice and gay marriage so he is the problem. Totally rational thinking that is.

I need to see a pissed off Joe Biden at a debate.
Trump NEEDS to be called out for the bullshit he has done over the course of his presidency

You want to win over people? You show fire, passion and a true desire to put things RIGHT.

Call him out for his nepotism.
Call him out for his lies.
Call him out for his piss-poor handling of the pandemic.
Call him out for racial division.
Call him out for his constant golfing and tweeting.

CALL HIM THE FUCK OUT. EXPOSE HIM FOR THE PIECE OF SHIT HE IS.

DanarchyReigns · Aug 7, 2020

Seeing the Biden threads in Off-Topic is just... baffling. Purity tests, loaded titles, people that still act like Biden is somehow as bad as Trump (or worse). Do they not understand what's at risk?

Smylie · Aug 7, 2020

Tackleberry said:
I need to see a pissed off Joe Biden at a debate.
Trump NEEDS to be called out for the bullshit he has done over the course of his presidency

You want to win over people? You show fire, passion and a true desire to put things RIGHT.

Call him out for his nepotism.
Call him out for his lies.
Call him out for his piss-poor handling of the pandemic.
Call him out for racial division.
Call him out for his constant golfing and tweeting.

CALL HIM THE FUCK OUT. EXPOSE HIM FOR THE PIECE OF SHIT HE IS.

Civility tho ...

CrocM · Aug 7, 2020

I wonder if Stan Van Gundy has political aspirations in Florida. Might be crazy but I think he'd be a slam dunk candidate and he's been good on Twitter

kess · Aug 7, 2020

DanarchyReigns said:
Seeing the Biden threads in Off-Topic is just... baffling. Purity tests, loaded titles, people that still act like Biden is somehow as bad as Trump (or worse). Do they not understand what's at risk?

Nur Trump, uns!

Beer Monkey · Aug 7, 2020

Trump hiding for days, scared of Teflon Joe. Sad!

DanarchyReigns said:
Seeing the Biden threads in Off-Topic is just... baffling. Purity tests, loaded titles, people that still act like Biden is somehow as bad as Trump (or worse). Do they not understand what's at risk?

It's a gamer site. Therefore it's loaded with secret Trumpers.

Casa · Aug 7, 2020

You know the jobs report is subpar when Trump doesn't call an emergency, unannounced presser to gloat and take credit for it.

Instead, he just said "fuck it, golf time."

Aaron · Aug 7, 2020

DanarchyReigns said:
Seeing the Biden threads in Off-Topic is just... baffling. Purity tests, loaded titles, people that still act like Biden is somehow as bad as Trump (or worse). Do they not understand what's at risk?

At the risk of overgeneralizing, a lot of the people who say that stuff aren't even American and therefore don't have as much skin in the game. You could make an argument that they'd be more affected by Biden's foreign policy (which, if I'm being real, is not great), but they'll often pivot to the bog standard "Biden doesn't support Medicare for All, which means he wants to legalize killing poor people" talking points anyway.

e: And yes, secret Trumpers, the people who support him but are aware that basically everything he stands for violates the ToS (except for like, tax cuts). So instead they just bash Biden under the guise of bOtH sIdEs ArE bAd while crossing their fingers that Trump pulls it off.

i like big butts · Aug 7, 2020

I won't lie, Ana Navarro is goddamn trash. But if she's not just a useless media talking head and can actually work at helping Biden win Florida, then I'll take it.

If Trump can't win Florida, its 99% going to be a short night in November.

Mcfrank · Aug 7, 2020

Midnight Jon said:
personally think it's even wilder that there's a Likely Democratic district in Kansas

e: well would you look at that

That 11 point swing from Hillary to Biden is beautiful. Apply that nationally and some nice things happen.

Sheepinator · Aug 7, 2020

That Russian interference news is a timely reminder. We've all been so focused on his attempts to cheat the election by screwing with the USPS, and his attempts to cheat the election with his personal law firm at the DoJ, and his attempts to cheat the election by having Kanye on the ballot in certain states, that we've almost forgotten about his attempts to cheat the election with the aid of foreign agents.

DanarchyReigns · Aug 7, 2020

Aaron said:
At the risk of overgeneralizing, a lot of the people who say that stuff aren't even American and therefore don't have as much skin in the game. You could make an argument that they'd be more affected by Biden's foreign policy (which, if I'm being real, is not great), but they'll often pivot to the bog standard "Biden doesn't support Medicare for All, which means he wants to legalize killing poor people" talking points anyway.

That make sense. I do get the feeling a lot of the commenters on political threads aren't American, or if they are, they haven't had any issues these last four years. I haven't either, but that doesn't mean I'm okay with more Trump. Fuck that.

Tackleberry · Aug 7, 2020

Smylie said:
Civility tho ...

You can call someone out, be pissed off and still be civil about it.

Deleted member 198 · Aug 7, 2020

DanarchyReigns said:
Seeing the Biden threads in Off-Topic is just... baffling. Purity tests, loaded titles, people that still act like Biden is somehow as bad as Trump (or worse). Do they not understand what's at risk?

They understand the risk, but they either don't care about the consequences of their actions, have some dumb 4D accelerationist plan, or are actively trying to depress potential voters.

xenocide · Aug 7, 2020

Aaron said:
At the risk of overgeneralizing, a lot of the people who say that stuff aren't even American and therefore don't have as much skin in the game. You could make an argument that they'd be more affected by Biden's foreign policy (which, if I'm being real, is not great), but they'll often pivot to the bog standard "Biden doesn't support Medicare for All, which means he wants to legalize killing poor people" talking points anyway.

Also generally a very vocal minority of forum users. Over a long enough timeline you see a lot of the same names making many of the same arguments/statements. It happens. I just wish a lot of this passion was directed towards taking out Republicans rather than tearing down Democrats, or volunteering to register voters, work polling sites, or GOTV campaigns.

Midnight Jon · Aug 7, 2020

not liking that Navarro hiring isn't exactly a purity test, but you'd think team "30% will win this because no one will ever drop out" would maybe learn to shut their mouths about campaign strategy at some point this year

Ac30 · Aug 7, 2020

Lol I love how the mods nerfed the title on that Navarro thread

Sho_Nuff82 · Aug 7, 2020

In other news that will be kicked down the road until after the election:

BREAKING: Full DC Circuit rules in favor of House Judiciary Committee that it does have the power to sue to enforce subpoenas like the one it's been long pursuing to get testimony from former Trump WH Counsel Don McGahn.

ArkhamFantasy · Aug 7, 2020

Did they change the thread title? I put it on ignore immediately.

Dodongo · Aug 7, 2020

DanarchyReigns said:
Seeing the Biden threads in Off-Topic is just... baffling. Purity tests, loaded titles, people that still act like Biden is somehow as bad as Trump (or worse). Do they not understand what's at risk?

Some of those dudes just legitimately don't understand strategy. If we listened to them, progressive goals would only slip further and further from reach, while we lose repeatedly.

US PoliEra 2020 |OT7| Good Trouble

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