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One thing that is interesting to me is I feel like there has been a lot of focus on Wisconsin/Michigan/Florida/Arizona, when the state that right now decides the election is Pennsylvania. Michigan is nearly off the board of this point and Wisconsin is actually polling much better for Biden than Pennsylvania is.
Trump still subscribed to the idea that anger is bad if you are black, I see.
It will be a huge relief if Biden wins in November, but it's going to be a loooong two months until the inauguration.
My biggest fear is that the media won't be able to let go of Trump and will constantly be reporting on his tweets and his bullshit commentary on what a horrible job Biden and the Dems are doing.
Republicans is Risarray.
Kinda love that the moderate wing of the GOP is toxic to the Trump wing.
Keep fighting each other, guys.
The earliest cases I know of Corona were a family that got it from their elementary school kids. This was late April.
Seeing as he had absolutely no comprehension of how normal people live day-to-day even before the pandemic (this is someone dense enough to believe that ID is required to buy groceries), in addition to having no empathy whatsoever, I'm surprised that the people surrounding him are still surprised by any of this.
I want Trump to go sit in a room full of 3rd graders for a whole school day. Don't worry, it's not like they are little petri dishes.
Anyone who has worked in a cubicle farm knows how many people with sick kids bring it to work with them and then spread it around. But NOOOOOoooooo schools will be magically fine.
I wonder if this is an ally of Fauci feeding these reports from inside the meetings. It's pretty obvious Fauci thinks Trump is a giant malevolent moron, but has to play nice in public lest Trump unleash more of his rabid flying monkeys
I'm not sure what pathways to victory Trump has at this point. Michigan is definitely gone. Pennsylvania? Wisconsin? Probably gone. There's not enough options left on the board.
I've been waiting to cast this vote for four real god damn long years.
In today's insanity.. Trump is now taking credit for a program that Obama put together with SpaceX.
Here's an update on the relief negotiations. To me the biggest issue now is that the GOP is way too low on aid for cities and states. We need close a trillion to avoid brutal budget cuts next year. $400 a week in additional UE isn't bad, but it should be extended past December.
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To be fair he already tried to claim he's done more for the black community than anyone else.
Is it strange that I'm both sad and relieved to see Kobach gone in Kansas? He legit seemed like our best opportunity to snag such an unlikely senate seat for six years.
Luckily dems could still very well hit 52 seats if they can win in Iowa and Montana. I feel confident about NC and Maine.
Indeed
We also need more high profile male socdem/demsoc representation in congress along with black voices like Tlaib, Omar and Pressley. Mondaire, Bowman and Bush will be refreshing voices for the movement. Really hoping we can get Alex Morse across the finish line as well. We'll need white progressives like Siegel and Morse to counter the likes of Buttigieg and Kennedy.
We're still so early in this movement and people are understandably anxious, but the payoff will be evident in the late 2020s imo. Eventually the boomer/silent gen old guard will be gone and early progressive winners will be the big dogs on the playground before their freaking fifties. Just gotta be patient.
I'm starting to wonder if it's possible for this lady and Ernst to just Brownback Iowa like Sam Brownback did in Kansas with his far right nonsense. Messing with schools may blow up in their faces much harder than they expect. The GOP could stand to learn a thing or two from Ohio's Dewine in this regard. The fewer waves, the better.
Luckily dems could still very well hit 52 seats if they can win in Iowa and Montana. I feel confident about NC and Maine.
Indeed
We also need more high profile male socdem/demsoc representation in congress along with black voices like Tlaib, Omar and Pressley. Mondaire, Bowman and Bush will be refreshing voices for the movement. Really hoping we can get Alex Morse across the finish line as well. We'll need white progressives like Siegel and Morse to counter the likes of Buttigieg and Kennedy.
I really love to see these endorsements go nowhere lol.
Elizabeth Warren is really the best choice for VP
We're still so early in this movement and people are understandably anxious, but the payoff will be evident in the late 2020s imo. Eventually the boomer/silent gen old guard will be gone and early progressive winners will be the big dogs on the playground before their freaking fifties. Just gotta be patient.
Jennifer Jacobs @JenniferJJacobs
Iowa gov @KimReynoldsIA says schools who defy state mandate that at least 50% of classes be in person could face licensure discipline. "If schools move to primarily remote learning without approval, according again to the law, those days do not count toward instructional time."
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds says students in school districts that hold classes online without receiving state approval will not receive credit for that time.7:19 AM · Aug 5, 2020
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds escalates stakes for defiant schools in showdown over mandate on in-person learning
Reynolds: "If schools move to primarily remote learning without approval, according … to the law, those days do not count toward instructional time."www.desmoinesregister.com
I'm starting to wonder if it's possible for this lady and Ernst to just Brownback Iowa like Sam Brownback did in Kansas with his far right nonsense. Messing with schools may blow up in their faces much harder than they expect. The GOP could stand to learn a thing or two from Ohio's Dewine in this regard. The fewer waves, the better.
I'll ask this again: Kansas is likely going to go for Trump. It just is what it is. So if voters are pulling the lever for Trump, on what world are they going to pull the lever for Barbara Bollier or leave that box unchecked. How is Trump okay to vote for but Kobach was a bridge too far?
Yeah, the upshot for 2022 is that the Senate map leaves us with only a handful of vulnerabilities. Worst-case scenario probably involves losing Arizona (if Kelly wins this year, he'll be up for re-election), New Hampshire and Nevada, and even then I'm not super pessimistic about any of them - New Hampshire seems like it'd be the toughest, especially if Sununu runs against Hassan.
If Democrats win 53 seats or more this election, they'll be pretty well insulated from the Senate majority flipping in 2022. On top of which, if D.C. and Puerto Rico do become states and send four Democratic Senators to Washington right away, that would turn a 53-47 majority into a 57-47 majority, making the GOP's task in 2022 of now flipping six seats borderline impossible (the other seats - California, Connecticut, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Washington and Vermont - would probably stay blue even in an R+10 environment). And that's without acknowledging a few, potentially open Republican-held seats (namely Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin) that could flip depending on candidate strength and the overall environment.
The real test, of course, will be flipping the House, but depending on the Senate margins this year, I'm pretty confident if we flip the majority this year we'll have it locked in for 4-6 years. If we lose the House in 2022 that obviously puts an end to any legislation getting passed, but retaining Senate control would at least guarantee a solid window for filling the judicial bench.
One of my fears of Trump of being re-elected is that, if given another four years, he has absolutely no incentive to do anything to end the pandemic or contain the virus. The moral and humanitarian crisis of trying to free a country from pandemic does not resonate with him. The extent to which he cares about the virus is whether or not it will make him a one-term president. If he passes that test, and never has to face voters again, why would he ever have to give a shit about the virus again?
Presumably, if the USPS' slowed delivery is due to budget crunches and reduced working hours, then more funding will help alleviate that. Presumably!
I have to listen to ads by Sethi and Ads attacking Sethi every day in the office at work. Usually they run back to back. Sethi runs these crazy fucking racist ads about how democrats hate america want to destroy everything, burn all the flags, and kill all the babies, and then I hear ads attack him for NOT BEING CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH.
They aren't ordered to slow things down. They are ordered to stop working so hard during a pandemic, removing extra trips and overtime. This, naturally, slows things down because of a huge increase in mail, which then snowballs, and things just get terrible. If they can attach some stipulations to the money to increase working hours, etc... they aren't going to hire people on a dime, so they will have to force the jackass to allow OT again
Different race/midterms. There was less incentive for Republicans to get out and vote, since this was votes for governor and congress candidates. With Trump at the top of the ticket for this election, I dont see how Trump voters won't do anything other than vote R down the ticket.
Edit: one more point to add, Kobach promised to continue Brownbacks failed policies, who at the time was the most unpopular govenor in America.
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When you are ordered to shut off mail sorting machines and then sort the mail by hand, you are being ordered to deliberately slow things down.
The house will be able to do redistricting next year right? Unfucking the gerrymandering that the republicans did in 2011 will probably help with house races in 2022
God I think I hate grifting pieces of shit like this way more than the true believers.
Mondaire is good but I don't think he identified as a demsoc. Or it could just be political posturing.
The black, gay Harvard grad taking on Nita Lowey
Mondaire Jones says the Hudson Valley congresswoman isn’t a fighter.
www.cityandstateny.com
state houses will, yes (it'll probably help if HR 1 gets passed ASAP)
100% agree. Any time I've seen her interviewed recently while pimping her book I think, I haven't warmed to her as potential VP or Pres either.
Oh really? After hearing so much that the republicans gerrymandered everything to shit after winning back the house in 2010 I assumed it was them. But I guess it was actually because the tea party won big in state elections too?
They sure did.
This was what the state legislative majorities looked like after the 2008 elections:
And then after the 2010 elections:
Close, but incomplete. Kobach is so deeply unpopular that...
GOP dread over possible Kobach nomination in Kansas
Republicans fear that Democratic meddling has helped to erase Roger Marshall’s lead in this week’s primary, potentially costing the party a Senate seat and perhaps its majority.
www.politico.com
This is KANSAS. The number of Republican voters greatly outclassed the number of Democratic voters in 2018. If you add up the number of Dem/Rep voters statewide in the elections, approx 40k voters switched from Republican to Democrat to vote against Kobach and many more voted third party: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/kansas/
Trump's mental processes work a lot like Cartman's memory in "Fishsticks", where every time he recalls the crafting of the titular joke he has aggrandized his role in it more.
Is PR a lock for 2 Dem Senators? I've no idea, it's just I've seen posts here saying it's not that simple.
I assume DC is a much easier sell to get approved in Congress? Doesn't PR need another referendum too? Seems hard to argue against DC, it would be saying people living in mainland America shouldn't have representation. And while the population is small, so are are multiple other states. Eight other states have population of 1.05M or less and DC would be right in the middle of those.
It's more complicated than that. That "racial gerrymander" is why Cori Bush is going to win the general in a landslide and why that district is almost always going to be represented by a person of color. You could draw the districts in such a way that favored democrats, but that would probably mean including more of Clayton, University City, and maybe St. Charles in the district, all of which basically means packing more white voters so their votes get wasted turning 60-40 democratic wins into 55-45 ones. That's almost certainly what we should do, since beating republicans is so important, but it means fewer majority-black districts. (Ironically, Cori Bush probably doesn't win this primary in Clay's old district). I can't blame people of color that prefer Clay's alternative, which ensures that PoC have a say in both Democratic Party politics and the legislature independent of their status as democratic voters.
i phone banked for Cori Bush. I voted for Cori Bush, and I'm thrilled that she won. But Lacy Clay supported the green new deal, single payer, and many more progressive initiatives. his Office was extremely helpful in helping my family navigate the stupid, stupid unemployment system, and his constituent services were in general top notch. He didn't do everything right, but he served with honor, and I think he'll be even better suited to a role as a leader within the party apparatus than as a legislator.
The fact that he even has trouble feigning concern is the wildest part of this all.
Man truly lacks a single ounce of empathy.
GOP-aligned groups in PR could compete under the right conditions, but the Democratic-aligned candidates would normally be favoured.
No, quite the opposite, Puerto Rican statehood is a much easier sell. Even the GOP notionally supports it. There's a new referendum scheduled for this fall. DC statehood is all but universally opposed in the GOP and doesn't poll well nationally.
Trump +3 in Iowa is fine for Biden nationally but man do I want Greenfield to win that senate seat.
Interesting. Why is that? (DC being opposed)
And what's the deal with the PR referendums? Is it a case of keep redoing it until they get the result they want?
If he stole credit for more Obama policies and programs rather than sabotaging them, we'd be in a better state.
Blows my fucking mind that Arpaio is still around. JFC, Maricopa
DC is a much easier sell - they held a statehood referendum in 2016 and it passed overwhelmingly, like 80-90% or something. They want representation.
PR is a bit trickier, like you said. For one thing it's very unclear as to whether they actually want it, they've voted on the issue several times. The problem is that there's never been a straight yes-or-no answer to it - the 2012 referendum gave voters the option for statehood, to remain a territory, or declare independence from the US, and the vote split roughly the same three ways. In a more recent referendum, statehood was the overwhelming favorite, but opponents sat out the vote in protest, so it can't be called a clear affirmation of anything.
I think the best course of action would be either this year or next year (2021, assuming Biden wins) to hold a final referendum - statehood, yes or no, and this one is for all the marbles. As in "if this passes, we will formally request statehood from Congress, and if it's a DDD government they will probably grant it." Make it a straight up-or-down approval question so there's no room for interpretation.
As for which way a Puerto Rican state would lean? It probably wouldn't be a slam dunk Safe D state the way DC would be, though I assume it'd at least start out Lean/Likely D-ish. Long term it could trend Republican depending on whether or not the GOP can start making significant inroads with Hispanic voters.
Interesting, thanks for the detailed info. Guess he can always run for higher office there if he wants to see how he fares if he's interested. All I see online are progressives that are super happy that Bush won and he's out.
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