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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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This reasoning doesn't hold much water because there are lean D states with smaller margins (Wisconsin, Nevada) than Florida's 7.5 and Florida is in the toss-up column.
Florida's polling has also been incredibly stable, and race fundamentals outside of polling (bad economy, unpopular incumbent, Florida's struggles with COVID) benefit Biden, not Trump.
And finally, the "but Hillary" argument is nonsense, as Clinton's negatives were substantially higher than Biden's were, meaning much of her support was "soft" and subject to change. Biden isnt in this category, and in fact we've seen polling where nearly 50% of the electorate is in "will NEVER support Trump" territory.
Wild 8 point swings at this point simply aren't plausible, and trying to stick Florida in the "toss up" column when it's been polling as it is for as long as it has been is horse race bullshit and should be called out as such.
This is so awful, and it didn't have to happen at all.
COVID-19 patients will be 'sent home to die' if deemed too sick, Texas county says
Starr County once went about three weeks without a COVID-19 case at the beginning of the pandemic. It banned large gatherings, tested hundreds of residents a day, issued stay-at-home orders and required face masks — many of the same mandates now commonplace across the U.S. The poor and mostly Latino county on the Mexico border was containing COVID-19.
"A model for the country," Starr County Judge Eloy Vera said Tuesday — as he shared an update that now appears gloomy.
In April, its aggressive and successful approach to beating the coronavirus was spotlighted by NBC News.
But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged.
A committee will deem which COVID-19 patients are likely to die and send them home with family, Jose Vasquez, the county health authority, said during a news conference Tuesday.
"The situation is desperate," Vasquez said. "We cannot continue functioning in the Starr County Memorial Hospital nor in our county in the way that things are going. The numbers are staggering."
COVID-19 patients will be 'sent home to die' if deemed too sick, Texas county says
Starr County once went about three weeks without a COVID-19 case at the beginning of the pandemic. It banned large gatherings, tested hundreds of residents a day, issued stay-at-home orders and required face masks — many of the same mandates now commonplace across the U.S. The poor and mostly Latino county on the Mexico border was containing COVID-19.
"A model for the country," Starr County Judge Eloy Vera said Tuesday — as he shared an update that now appears gloomy.
In April, its aggressive and successful approach to beating the coronavirus was spotlighted by NBC News.
But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged.
A committee will deem which COVID-19 patients are likely to die and send them home with family, Jose Vasquez, the county health authority, said during a news conference Tuesday.
"The situation is desperate," Vasquez said. "We cannot continue functioning in the Starr County Memorial Hospital nor in our county in the way that things are going. The numbers are staggering."
I think it reflects the background history of the state.
The background history of the state isn't all that relevant given current conditions on the ground right now.
Yes, it typically polls closely and is firmly in the swing state category, but there are very real, very serious reasons why it is not polling closely in 2012. That state is literally the worst COVID Hotspot on the planet and both Trump AND DeSantis' favorability have fallen off a cliff because of it.
Gore and Hillary losing it by slim margins in wildly different social and economic conditions don't override that.
Abbott's reopening really screwed them over. They're completely overwhelmed even while sending patients to neighboring counties and getting some help from the state/military. If this was a natural disaster, it would be national news, federal disaster declared, and FEMA support rushed to the scene. But it's a pandemic, and because our country fucked up, it's a disaster everywhere.
Given redistricting is coming, this is the worst time for a total collapse for the GOP (just as 2010 was the worst time for a blowout of the Dems).
looking at 2004 numbers too - kerry/bush was somewhat similar in the summer of 2004 as clinton/trump in 2016. both polled in the low or mid 40s, but bush had somewhat decent approvals at the time (45-49). it was still competitive until about september when bush ran away with it. i wonder if there's truly a point of no return where the momentum is too great to overcome. the conventions are late in august and generally provide a bump to the respective candidates - would that basically be the end of any major shifts other than tightening?
the only thing that i sideye is seeing polling for trump at 40-43 anywhere when the national vote came in at 46 and disapproval has generally maxed out around 54-55. i mentally tack on 2-4 points for him and 1 for biden whenever there's still 7 that are unallocated.
the only thing that i sideye is seeing polling for trump at 40-43 anywhere when the national vote came in at 46 and disapproval has generally maxed out around 54-55. i mentally tack on 2-4 points for him and 1 for biden whenever there's still 7 that are unallocated.
OMG there was a previous photo, and it's been photoshopped by Darth:
He's such a horribly ugly mother fucker. I can't wait to ignore him completely.
Frankly that concern seems pretty unwarranted right now. Firebrand reps don't have a great track record getting into the White House.
OMG there was a previous photo, and it's been photoshopped by Darth:
The hell was that photographer doing with that shutter speed? I wouldn't put a Reuters tag on it.
When he's just like Hannity who I can ignore pretty easily will be glorious.
If I was Biden I would disband that whole stupid operation on like my second or third day.
That seems... extremely mild, but yeah I guess the Cuban American dynamics in Florida can be complicated. If she checks a lot of other boxes, I'm not sure those comments should rise to the level of outright dumping her.An article on the subject:
Florida Democrats recoil at Karen Bass VP float
The California congresswoman’s past comments about Fidel Castro "are troubling," said one lawmaker in the nation’s largest swing state.www.politico.com
Separating NASA out into their own military branch is fine, though I would prefer that they be removed from the military entirely. Space Force is among the least of my concerns.
there was a sentiment made by John Oliver, that I wanna echo here. there is a small chance that he is doing this Space Force crap because he wants to eventually own the moon.
*sigh* every day we grow closer to living to the reality of the Space Force TV show
Yeah. This Florida PTSD is nonsense. There's nothing special about Florida. There were just like, 4 50-50 coin flips in the last twenty years that all came up Republican. That's a 1/16th chance. With 50 states, at least one state is going to go Against you in multiple close races in a row - it's just probability.
Space Force is a dumb name anyway. If anything, it should have been United States Star Command.
wow and the entire purpose of that branch will be to help create props for every space opera movie to come out in the future. that would be a better purpose than "SPACE DOMINANCE"
"We're in the middle of a global pandemic, skyrocketing unemployment, massive protests against police brutality and Trump is absolutely destroying this country piece by piece. So why not vote Biden?"
"because his VP once referred to Castro in a nice way"
??? Florida politics are insane.
"because his VP once referred to Castro in a nice way"
??? Florida politics are insane.
The original name, before Trump changed it, was USAF Space Command.
Yes, Trump didn't make a new military branch. He changed a name.
Underselling how much of an issue that causes in FL.
Can't really just tell older Cuban blocks of voters to just get over it or anything.
But then again older cohorts were probably not voting for dems anyway.
I don't mind the idea of a space branch.
The Pentagon will see money and bodies NASA will never see. And many of the agents and employees in NASA came directly from the military.
That's kind of my take. How many older Cuban American voters were going to be voting for any Dem in any circumstance anyway? Maybe it is more about a turnout play and motivating them to show up for Trump I guess. But I don't see many that were going to ever vote for a Dem in general.
NASA is not part of the military. Its funding comes from non-defense discretionary spending.
Space Force is a spinoff of the space operations of the Air Force. The space policy wonks I know were of the opinion that a spin-off would be beneficial, but that a "Space Corps" (comparable to the Marine Corps in scope) would be better than an entirely new "force."
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Biden's VP is a question mark that could help his ticket a bit or hurt it if he screws it up. Might open up some lines of attack.
Shouldn't be a real bounce for either after the conventions considering they're scaled down.
The debates certainly shift momentum, or a health issue for either candidate (particularly Biden).
COVID & the economic fallout will dominate the news for at least the next couple months so it's hard for me to imagine a purely political attack on Trump/Biden breaking through that.
My understanding was that NASA was part of the Air Force. Maybe I got things mixed up.
It's not just a new name. It's a reorganizing of the command structure. They are no longer under the umbrella of the Air Force.
Yeah, NASA is the civilian space agency. The military contracts them for certain things but they are a separate organization. As Sobriquet said, USAF Space Command was part of the Air Force. That was the 'space' branch of the military, which is completely separate from NASA.
So is that a Fallon bit? Either way it's going to make that giant orange baby mad
Its been completely gutted and drained of its top talent
Much like every other institution
Honestly we already had more desirable private sector options for top level government employees but Trump made the choice even easier
Kamala and Tammy definitely make the most sense. Karen Bass just doesn't seem likely, there isn't much name recognition there.
Is that the reason why? I didn't realize how the CDC was drained out of its top talent but it makes sense.
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