She is. How is Trump going to win again, which will absolutely delight her, if he blows all that money?
Daniel Dale @ddale8
Hannity asked Trump what America will look like four years from now if he is re-elected. Transcript of the reply:
12:09 AM · Jul 24, 2020
Source: Coelho Pushing Biden to Pick Bass – California Globe
californiaglobe.com
"According to a highly placed source in Sacramento, Coelho, whose 10-year stint included many atop the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has been in close contact with the Bass camp. The source told the Globe that Coelho told another person that Biden's folks told Bass it's her or Duckworth."
Idk whether to believe this.
That's the most words I've ever seen that say nothing.
She is. How is Trump going to win again, which will absolutely delight her, if he blows all that money?
I don't know much about her, but why would Bass put FL in jeopardy?I think Florida Democrats are going to do whatever they can to have bass not be the VP
If people thought Bernie's comments "praising Castro" were going to cost us Florida...
I don't know the extent of the comments but she apparently used some supposedly endearing term Castro's supporters called him when he died. Which I think if Bernie got in trouble for saying Cuba had a good literacy program I imagine that will likely become a big talking point.I don't know much about her, but why would Bass put FL in jeopardy?
Interesting. Would certainly be good to know and hopefully it's part of the vetting process.I don't know the extent of the comments but she apparently used some supposedly endearing term Castro's supporters called him when he died. Which I think if Bernie got in trouble for saying Cuba had a good literacy program I imagine that will likely become a big talking point
Interesting. Would certainly be good to know and hopefully it's part of the vetting process.
Trump plays catch at a White House event to celebrate the opening day of Major League Baseball.
Photograph: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Trump's lead among white voters has all but vanished. Anything like it threatens longstanding GOP structural advantages
It's not easy to imagine the consequences of this kind of demographic shift, but they are potentially very significant. For illustrative purposes, consider a simple simulation: apply the shifts in national polls to our post '16 estimates of the result by group
Nationwide, this yields the following result:
Biden+10, 54-44
Whites 46-52
...col+ 59-39
...no col 37-61
Black 90-9
Hispanic 63-35
plausible enough for illustrative purposes
By state, these estimates yield results that look a lot like recent polls (though keep in mind that, unlike this simulation, national shifts would undoubtedly manifest in non-uniform and unpredictable ways by state):
MI Biden+10
WI +10
PA +9
FL +6
NC +6
AZ +4
The next-tier of states also looks quite a bit like state polls, though the Democratic weakness among Hispanic voters in national polls (which I'm not sure I expect to last and may not materialize in TX) barely blocks blue TX
ME-2 Biden+2
OH +2
IA +1
GA +1
TX Trump+1
All of this shouldn't be too surprising. More surprising is what comes next:
AK Trump+4
UT Trump+5
SC Trump+7
MT Trump+7
KS Trump+8
MO/IN Trump+9
As cautioned earlier, individual states will defy national trends in significant ways, esp weird ones like AK/UT. But this creates risk for the GOP: it wouldn't take much more for a few to be really competitive, even if, for the same reasons, one or two might remain solid Trump. Obviously it doesn't matter too much whether Biden flips AK or something. But it may matter a lot downballot: four of those states feature plausibly competitive Senate races, and extra Senate flips would matter a lot for Democrats.
As an aside, the 2022 Senate map does not feature many competitive Democratic-held races, and if Dems could get to 53+ seats they'd have a very serious path to hold the Senate through 2024 and a hypothetical midterm wave
The consequences for the GOP in the House might be equally alarming, as Biden carries more than 250 congressional districts in this scenario At this point, Biden gains among white voters really do reach, if barely, the 'busted gerrymander' point in OH/TX/MI.
Biden wins several of the Trump +10 or more districts that keep popping up in private polls, like IN05, MO02, TX21, etc. But he also wins districts that aren't getting much attention, perhaps because they're not overly heavy on college grads, like AZ06, OH10, MI06, FL16
Finally someone did it. I love these people for being brutal and not giving a single fuck.
Biden holds early edge in ABC News’ Electoral College race ratings: ANALYSIS
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a discernible Electoral College advantage over President Donald Trump, according to ABC News’ initial general election ratings.abcnews.go.comFormer Vice President Joe Biden holds a discernible -- though not insurmountable -- Electoral College advantage over President Donald Trump, with multiple paths to the presidency but little margin for error, according to ABC News' initial ratings for the 2020 general election.With this weekend marking 100 days to Election Day, ABC's race ratings place 279 electoral votes as either solidly or leaning Democratic -- slightly more than the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. Another 72 electoral votes are rated as toss-ups, while 187 are either solidly or leaning Republican
Don't worry Mitch McConnell is on the case.Yep, that number is going to spike, fast, if another stimulus isn't passed next week
I'm skeptical of that "deadline." I don't think they turn at all.Can't wait to see the GOP's Labor Day deadline roll around and seeing so many Republicans start eating each other.
Current 538 polling averages along with these race designations by ABC News
Lean D states
Minnesota - Biden +10.9
Michigan - Biden +7.6
Pennsylvania - Biden +7.5
New Hampshire - Biden +7.4 (Note: almost no polling)
Wisconsin - Biden +6.8
Nevada - Biden +6.6 (Note: almost no polling)
Tossup
Florida - Biden +7.5
Arizona - Biden +2.8
North Carolina - Biden +2.2
Georgia - Trump +1.4
Lean R states
Ohio - Biden +2.0
Texas - Totally even, +0.0
Iowa - Trump +0.4
Alaska - Trump +2.0
Montana - Trump +9.0
Based on polling averages Ohio, Texas, and Iowa should be tossups quite frankly. And Florida lean Democrat.
On what planet is a Biden 7.5+ state a toss-up? This stinks of game playing with narratives because putting Florida in the D column means the race is basically over.
Hillary at no point in the race had consensus leads in multiple states for this long or wide of a margin.Hillary was up by about that much in some states that she did lose (Wisconsin). The margins of error are pretty huge this far out, and it is really really hard to say whether a +7.5 in July corresponds to a 5%, 10%, 20%, or 35% chance of losing, and where the cutoff between Lean and Toss-Up lies.
Current 538 polling averages along with these race designations by ABC News
Lean D states
Minnesota - Biden +10.9
Michigan - Biden +7.6
Pennsylvania - Biden +7.5
New Hampshire - Biden +7.4 (Note: almost no polling)
Wisconsin - Biden +6.8
Nevada - Biden +6.6 (Note: almost no polling)
Tossup
Florida - Biden +7.5
Arizona - Biden +2.8
North Carolina - Biden +2.2
Georgia - Trump +1.4
Lean R states
Ohio - Biden +2.0
Texas - Totally even, +0.0
Iowa - Trump +0.4
Alaska - Trump +2.0
Montana - Trump +9.0
Based on polling averages Ohio, Texas, and Iowa should be tossups quite frankly. And Florida lean Democrat.
Hillary at no point in the race had consensus leads in multiple states for this long or wide of a margin.
Yeah I don't understand their decisions on a lot of these states. Are they afraid to move more out of toss up?