US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.

[Joeytj]

wait, i've never seen this video before, if this is really why Trump decided to run for president i'm dead lmao

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Like others have already pointed out, Trump's been toying with the idea of running for president since the 80s. So much so that the Simpsons made a joke about him being president before Lisa, remember? It's always been a "joke, but maybe not?" thing in America. And now in hindsight, all of us should've been more serious about the possibility.

But I think Obama knew it and did take Trump seriously. That's why he went hard on Trump in 2011 at the Correspondent's Dinner. Trump was the main birther during those years and it was an open secret he was exploring the possibility of a 2012 run against Obama. But after Obama got Osama Bin Laden and he roasted Trump in that event, Trump understood he wouldn't be able to beat him in 2012 and it would be better to wait for 2016 and Hillary. Trump likely understood that there was a massive pushback from white people against Obama growing but Obama himself was still popular with a majority of America. So he had to wait.

 

[Falore]

To be fair He didn't beat hillary either, and 3 million american votes agree. He is only president due to a technicality (or as i like to call it the electoral college which allows people to be president even when they lose)

 

[Joeytj]

To be fair He didn't beat hillary either, and 3 million american votes agree. He is only president due to a technicality (or as i like to call it the electoral college which allows people to be president even when they lose)

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He beat Hillary where it counts. Trump no doubt thought he would either win or loose outright —and not the EC minus the popular vote combo he really got— but he won anyway. Trump knew that 2016 was going to be his last good shot at being president and he took it, that's my point. Much like Obama knew 2008 was going to be it and not later, like some wanted him to (especially Hillary supporters).

 

[Deleted member 46804]

The threat now isn't him being voted in. I don't think there is any way for that to happen. The real threat is him refusing to leave office and the GOP backs him on staying in the White House. There is no precedent for a president refusing to concede and the military is immediately put into the terrible position of having to make the choice to remove him. The good news is that his supporters have been shown to be cowards when push comes to shove while the progressives in the country have shown they have no problem taking to the streets to make shit right.

 

[lenovox1]

The threat now isn't him being voted in. I don't think there is any way for that to happen. The real threat is him refusing to leave office and the GOP backs him on staying in the White House. There is no precedent for a president refusing to concede and the military is immediately put into the terrible position of having to make the choice to remove him. The good news is that his supporters have been shown to be cowards when push comes to shove while the progressives in the country have shown they have no problem taking to the streets to make shit right.

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The closer November gets, the further away this possibility seems, honestly. It implies that Trump actually wants to be in the Oval Office, and that he wouldn't massively prefer to "lead from the back" on his Twitter account.

There are people of the QAnon conspiracy theorist type that are embedded in his administration, and they would love to occupy the White House like Ted Bundy occupied that ranch. Trump doesn't seem to have the taste for it.

Is there any good indication of this threat?

 

[bye]

Is there any good indication of this threat?

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Indicating they want feds patrolling nationwide could be one.

 

[Critch]

The threat now isn't him being voted in. I don't think there is any way for that to happen. The real threat is him refusing to leave office and the GOP backs him on staying in the White House. There is no precedent for a president refusing to concede and the military is immediately put into the terrible position of having to make the choice to remove him. The good news is that his supporters have been shown to be cowards when push comes to shove while the progressives in the country have shown they have no problem taking to the streets to make shit right.

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That's an empty threat. The Constitution is incredibly clear on this, and we get this fearmongering about every single President on either side. No, he won't stay in office one millisecond longer than his term. Not to mention that even if he barricaded himself in, Biden would still be President, since location is meaningless. You could have 9 conservatives on the SC and they wouldn't have him staying if he loses the election. Besides, he's a coward, he'll complain all the way out and on twitter until he dies, but there's no way he stays.

 

[thuway]

The threat now isn't him being voted in. I don't think there is any way for that to happen. The real threat is him refusing to leave office and the GOP backs him on staying in the White House. There is no precedent for a president refusing to concede and the military is immediately put into the terrible position of having to make the choice to remove him. The good news is that his supporters have been shown to be cowards when push comes to shove while the progressives in the country have shown they have no problem taking to the streets to make shit right.

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The threat of him winning the election is very real and keeps me awake at night. There is a thread in the OT that says a vaccine could be available by September. That's two months where he will chest beat and feed into his base.

Do not let up and be complacent. This is what got us here.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Can Merkel like, do something about that fucking bank already

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It's half in jest but still Deutsche is not a state owned bank and I don't know about this incident but it probably concerns an US daughter of Deutsche. Deutsche is hard working to put itself out of business but that doesn't mean that the bank that picks up its carcass will be any better.

 

[Deleted member 46804]

That's an empty threat. The Constitution is incredibly clear on this, and we get this fearmongering about every single President on either side. No, he won't stay in office one millisecond longer than his term. Not to mention that even if he barricaded himself in, Biden would still be President, since location is meaningless. You could have 9 conservatives on the SC and they wouldn't have him staying if he loses the election. Besides, he's a coward, he'll complain all the way out and on twitter until he dies, but there's no way he stays.

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This is far different from any presidency of our lifetime and I think the threat of prosecution for him and his cronies once he leaves office is very real. If his options are possibly go to jail or fight to stay in office under false claims of election fraud, I think he chooses the latter and gets support from the GOP members that are tied up in his bullshit. And yes the location of the presidency doesn't matter but you can't have two presidents. Basically Trump could put the country into constitutional crisis if he so chooses.

 

[Deleted member 46804]

The threat of him winning the election is very real and keeps me awake at night. There is a thread in the OT that says a vaccine could be available by September. That's two months where he will chest beat and feed into his base.

Do not let up and be complacent. This is what got us here.

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Definitely not complacent but I just feel like the tide has shifted. No matter what I'm definitely going to make sure everyone I know is out there voting in November.

 

[Argyle]

The threat of him winning the election is very real and keeps me awake at night. There is a thread in the OT that says a vaccine could be available by September. That's two months where he will chest beat and feed into his base.

Do not let up and be complacent. This is what got us here.

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It should be noted that "available" is likely to mean a few million doses in September/October. It means that maybe frontline healthcare workers and maybe high risk people in things like nursing homes and meat packing plants get the vaccine first because it's pretty unlikely there will be enough to vaccinate widely at that point.

 

[cameron]

It would seem the morale did not improve with increased beatings out in Portland.

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>

 

[cameron]

Acting DHS dipshit retweeting Andy Ngo:

 

[Slayven]

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This is why the BLM trend turned so quick. Cracking a few black skulls is one thing in america, white people getting brutalized is a whole nother.

 

[Rag]

I kinda hate that journalists keep asking him if he'll accept the results of the election. They should know that a question like that plants the thought in Trump's mind that he has the authority to not accept the results of the election.

 

[RocketKiss]

I kinda hate that journalists keep asking him if he'll accept the results of the election. They should know that a question like that plants the thought in Trump's mind that he has the authority to not accept the results of the election.

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Why don't they ask that if he thinks there will be shenanigans then why doesn't he and the Republicans support the Election Security bills?

 

[Piston]

The threat of him winning the election is very real and keeps me awake at night. There is a thread in the OT that says a vaccine could be available by September. That's two months where he will chest beat and feed into his base.

Do not let up and be complacent. This is what got us here.

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Even if there is a vaccine, what the hell makes you think he would even help roll out a vaccine correctly? There will be scandal and incompetency in every aspect of his administration. That has been the one true constant.

 

[Erpy]

Even if there is a vaccine, what the hell makes you think he would even help roll out a vaccine correctly? There will be scandal and incompetency in every aspect of his administration. That has been the one true constant.

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Under normal circumstances, I'd expect him to do what he tried to do with PPE and just ship it en masse to swing states in an attempt to quickly make up his deficits there, except at this point there's just so many states in play that even that approach will be hard. :P

 

[Greigor the FellHand]

This is why the BLM trend turned so quick. Cracking a few black skulls is one thing in america, white people getting brutalized is a whole nother.

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Something I thought about how to describe what blm is, to people who don't understand it.


Ending police brutality, abuse of force, illegal activity, and theft(civil asset forfeitures)

For years white America looked on at these police committing these attrocities and told them selves it's only effecting minorities, it's fine.

In recent years policing unchecked have now started doing what they historically did to minorites to everyone.

Blm is how we fix this. Once we stop the racist tactics and go after the abuse of power, it fixes the whole damn problem.

 

[thuway]

Under normal circumstances, I'd expect him to do what he tried to do with PPE and just ship it en masse to swing states in an attempt to quickly make up his deficits there, except at this point there's just so many states in play that even that approach will be hard. :P

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I wouldn't count him out. Trust me, the virus is what is sinking his campaign. A vaccine coming through would instantly boost his numbers

 

[Casa]

I do think that a widely available and highly effective vaccine before the election would help Trump considerably. Since you know he'd be on wall to wall daily TV coverage bragging and taking credit for it somehow. His poll numbers would improve.

But I think even that won't be enough to save him. It'll make it nervier than it should be, though.

 

[Greigor the FellHand]

I do think that a widely available and highly effective vaccine before the election would help Trump considerably. Since you know he'd be on wall to wall daily TV coverage bragging and taking credit for it somehow. His poll numbers would improve.

But I think even that won't be enough to save him. It'll make it nervier than it should be, though.

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It won't.

Why?

Rolling out a 70% effective become would likely take 6-8 months best case.

Then you have to factor in the growing percent of people that would outright refuse it.

 

[i like big butts]

Boost his numbers in what measurable way?

Rasmussen Reports (that Rass) claims 47% (that's nearly 50%) of people are responding to Trump's job as president with strongly disapprove. A vaccine isn't going to save him there.

Trump's problem isn't just coronavirus. It's also race relations, being an asshole, being on the wrong side of police brutality and the confederate flag (Jesus Christ Mississippi Republicans are against Trump on this matter).

Trump's numbers started to take a huge hit when he tear gassed a church to hold a bible upside down for a minute. That has nothing to do with coronavirus.

 

[AniHawk]

trump's problem has been that, since 2016, he's had a ceiling of 46%, maybe 47% at best for support. and this is pretty in-line with romney (47.2%) and mccain (45.7%). the group that turns out to vote republican is consistent, but if the group that turns out to vote against republican does so in the same numbers as 2012, then trump's not winning wisconsin, pennsylvania, or michigan. his disapproval rate should closely match the people who vote for biden. and that's without taking into account just how fed up and energized people are to vote out these assholes and have been since 2017.

and he could absolutely have a small bump in late august and september due to the convention and if a vaccine becomes available, but i can't see that lasting through october when there are debates and the death toll is still rising by the thousands every week.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

I do think that a widely available and highly effective vaccine before the election would help Trump considerably. Since you know he'd be on wall to wall daily TV coverage bragging and taking credit for it somehow. His poll numbers would improve.

But I think even that won't be enough to save him. It'll make it nervier than it should be, though.

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There are 15 weeks to Election Day. We aren't getting a vaccine into voters' hands in the next 15 weeks. There's a greater chance of mass evictions, another stock crash, schools closing for the entire fall, an NFL shutdown, and Trump botching a natural disaster response over the next 15 weeks, IMO.

I think whenever a vaccine is announced, politicians everywhere will get a bump for like two weeks. Then, as citizens come to understand that it'll be months until they themselves actually get the vaccine, that bump will boil over into anger.

 

[i like big butts]

trump's problem has been that, since 2016, he's had a ceiling of 46%, maybe 47% at best for support. and this is pretty in-line with romney (47.2%) and mccain (45.7%). the group that turns out to vote republican is consistent, but if the group that turns out to vote against republican does so in the same numbers as 2012, then trump's not winning wisconsin, pennsylvania, or michigan. his disapproval rate should closely match the people who vote for biden. and that's without taking into account just how fed up and energized people are to vote out these assholes and have been since 2017.

and he could absolutely have a small bump in late august and september due to the convention and if a vaccine becomes available, but i can't see that lasting through october when there are debates and the death toll is still rising by the thousands every week.

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That brings into the problem of him being an incumbent. He's an overwhelmingly negative person with no patience for policy. That sort of worked in 2016 where he was able to talk shit about the wall, a potential trade war, and ripping apart Obamacare. He hasn't built the wall, hasn't won a trade war and ironically made Obamacare more popular than ever simply because people finally figured out that it was the same as the ACA and the Republicans were actually serious about killing health care for millions of Americans.

Having a high disapproval ceiling isn't that bad if your opponent has similarly awful disapproval. The problem comes when you don't have much to offer beyond a good stock market returns for big investors and people nearing retirement - which is offset by everyone else wondering if they're going to feed themselves in a month's time - and people really don't have a strong opinion regarding your opponent.

Sure Trump could theoretically win but he's shown that he isn't bothering to correct course regarding coronavirus. That alone really dampens his odds because the economy is still going to be balls even with news of a vaccine.

 

[thuway]

trump's problem has been that, since 2016, he's had a ceiling of 46%, maybe 47% at best for support. and this is pretty in-line with romney (47.2%) and mccain (45.7%). the group that turns out to vote republican is consistent, but if the group that turns out to vote against republican does so in the same numbers as 2012, then trump's not winning wisconsin, pennsylvania, or michigan. his disapproval rate should closely match the people who vote for biden. and that's without taking into account just how fed up and energized people are to vote out these assholes and have been since 2017.

and he could absolutely have a small bump in late august and september due to the convention and if a vaccine becomes available, but i can't see that lasting through october when there are debates and the death toll is still rising by the thousands every week.

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i hope your right, but i still have trauma from 2016. Sounds selfish and stupid. TheHunter has told me to calm down, but it was legit one of the worst days I've ever had. In no way shape or form am i getting complacent or optimistic. i am literally looking at this election as if we are the under dogs.

 

[Slayven]

trump's problem has been that, since 2016, he's had a ceiling of 46%, maybe 47% at best for support. and this is pretty in-line with romney (47.2%) and mccain (45.7%). the group that turns out to vote republican is consistent, but if the group that turns out to vote against republican does so in the same numbers as 2012, then trump's not winning wisconsin, pennsylvania, or michigan. his disapproval rate should closely match the people who vote for biden. and that's without taking into account just how fed up and energized people are to vote out these assholes and have been since 2017.

and he could absolutely have a small bump in late august and september due to the convention and if a vaccine becomes available, but i can't see that lasting through october when there are debates and the death toll is still rising by the thousands every week.

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It's cute you think he won't shit his pants during the convention

 

[TheHunter]

I keep telling ya'll the GOP won't stop the culture war with Trump.

 

[Deleted member 198]

I keep telling ya'll the GOP won't stop the culture war with Trump.

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Well duh, but that's only because the GOP is swiftly being taken over with Q and Trump nuts.

 

[TheHunter]

Well duh, but that's only because the GOP is swiftly being taken over with Q and Trump nuts.

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That's good for us.

 

[Chaos Legion]

That's good for us.

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I fail to see how increased polarization is good for anyone, to be honest.

 

[kalindana]

Biden will be on Joy Reid's new show tonight:

Spoiler: twitter text

Happening tonight: @JoeBiden will join @JoyAnnReid for the first-ever episode of #TheReidOut during the 7pm ET hour on @MSNBC.

 

[Serule]

Well duh, but that's only because the GOP is swiftly being taken over with Q and Trump nuts.

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Trump has heated up the GOP and boiled off the moderate members, leaving behind thick gooey concentrated crazy

 

[Slayven]

Trump has heated up the GOP and boiled off the moderate members, leaving behind thick gooey concentrated crazy

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an accurate analogy

 

[Deleted member 13101]

That's good for us.

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It's still bad for everyone ultimately.

 

[Dierce]

I fail to see how increased polarization is good for anyone, to be honest.

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I also agree with this statement. Polarization, aka republicans moving further to the right, only helps spread the false both sides narrative that the media likes to push. Imagine having to compromise with these Q idiots.

 

[TheHunter]

I fail to see how increased polarization is good for anyone, to be honest.

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It's still bad for everyone ultimately.

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A majority of the country isn't crazy on the whole "Nazi culture war" thing.

 

[Plinko]

I'm late on the conversation, but people who don't think most republicans will accept and cheer on the secret unmarked police authoritarianism are out of their mind. They will. They are right now. This is what they've always wanted with a republican president.

They project almost everything.

 

[AniHawk]

It's cute you think he won't shit his pants during the convention

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it's no different from any other day - but the embarrassed independents who gee-wiz don't know WHO to vote for will probably latch onto one thing or another. it happened in march when he came out and put on a performance that, if you squinted and covered your ears, looked presidential. and that effect will be gone in september and october.

i hope your right, but i still have trauma from 2016. Sounds selfish and stupid. TheHunter has told me to calm down, but it was legit one of the worst days I've ever had. In no way shape or form am i getting complacent or optimistic. i am literally looking at this election as if we are the under dogs.

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i think this presidency has amplified my anxiety to levels that negatively affected my physical health. i remember watching the results come in too. i was at work and by the time i left for the night, it was clear that hillary had lost to this gigantic asshole. and complacency is a problem, sure. republicans and romney truly thought they had it in the bag in 2012 too. why not? 2010 midterms were a bloodbath for dems, romney and obama polled closely, and the first debate as a disaster for the president (which was turned around dramatically in the next two and the vp debate). but biden's polling aggregate has been 50% or higher for over a month now. and the closest it's ever been was the same margin obama had over romney.

looking at 2016 and looking at 2020, the one thing i distrust in the polls is how many people are saying they actually support trump. i have zero faith that these 'undecideds' are actually unsure of who to vote for, but i do believe that trump's ceiling is at least 1 point lower than 2016. that would be a worse performance than mccain, which fits in line with models predicting a 2008-style win for biden right now.

if it helps, take a look at the polling aggregates from 2016: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/. there's a similar amount of undecideds between then and now, but you'll see johnson sucking up a good deal of the votes. look at 2020's and essentially what would have been johnson's are biden's. the third-party vote was 5% in 2016, which has been under 2% in the elections from 2004-2012. the factors that brought about trump's win in 2016 aren't factors here, and he doesn't have a record to run on that would get him a majority.

 

[TheHunter]

"Fuck you and your mothers" is apparently something Ken is ok with.

 

[shiba5]

It would seem the morale did not improve with increased beatings out in Portland.

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What happened in Portland, prior, to make the protests so large and lasting? Do they have a particularly awful police department?

 

[Greg NYC3]

It would seem the morale did not improve with increased beatings out in Portland.

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Who could have possibly foreseen that Trump's gestapo tactics would backfire? Who I ask you, who???

It's also put the protests back in the spotlight again after coverage of them had actually died down. It's almost as if Trump's every instinct about everything is wrong 🤔

 

[Carn]

Imagine having to compromise with these Q idiots.

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A little comfort: these people are most likely not able to govern or create policy at all, so they'll dig their own political graves.

 

[MrCheezball]

This has probably been covered, but with Antifa getting added to the terrorist list, I imagine this gave DHS a lot of nasty leeway.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Good stuff

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I'm late on the conversation, but people who don't think most republicans will accept and cheer on the secret unmarked police authoritarianism are out of their mind. They will. They are right now. This is what they've always wanted with a republican president.

They project almost everything.

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I'm slightly more surprised at the number of "libertarians" who simultaneously hold the opinions that "we were always against DHS and the police state" and "I don't mind seeing Marxists being dragged off the streets because they are my political enemies." Same excuse as the 2A types.

Yesterday, there was an Afghanistan vet who commented that he wore his name and badge on his uniform even when fighting overseas. There were people in his mentions saying that "he was safe behind a base fence when deployed, not in danger of mob reprisal like the brave DHS agents out in the streets of Portland."

The men with badges and truncheons are always going to be right when they are stomping on the necks of undesirables to these people. It's never been hyperbole to call these people fascists. They would kill or arrest everyone in those crowds if they could.

 

[YamchasRevenge]

 

[shiba5]

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I guess they live by themselves.