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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Statistical margin of error is +/- on the raw values, and not the margin of comparing the two sides. If the MoE on demographic sub group is +/- 5, it is totally realistic for the resulting margin to be a 10 point swing.
Knew this would probably be the biggest soundbite of the whole interview. This is going to get huge airtime in the coming months.
What is the guy even doing. Like, bare minimum speaking? It looks like all he makes the news for nowadays is when he goes playing golf or shitposting on Twitter. Thats it. Why does he even want to be president when he is just being a bum. He can do that while not being a president. If you are the president then at least do something about 150k dead or the plague. But he's just sitting there nope-ing and denying everything.
Still have a few months left as the hinges keep getting worse, but this may be the most insane.
But then again its a sliding scale, his interviews are always insufferably inept and insane even back in 2015 during announce. This is him deeply in the defensive as opposed to on the offense in prior years.
Wonder what could have happened in the last 4 years to cause a drop in GOP identification
People really need to stop panicking about subgroup analysis of a single poll everytime it says that Biden isn't +20. Just throw it on the pile and move on until you see a trend emerging. Otherwise you will have daily panic attacks until November
"He's the Commander in Chief, the head of the military, QED"
I agree.
I don't view this interview as much more shocking than the interviews he's been giving since 2015.
What's changed is that the ground has hardened. His interviews don't command the days worth of attention and "this is what he likely meant," benefit of the doubt from all but his most diehard supporters (who you expect that from anyway).
Biden being over 50 or super close to 50 on a consistent basis whereby Hillary was never at 50 is the biggest news out of the recent polls. No need to panic at all.
U.s. really needs to pass a bill making Astro turfing a federal felony.
Also make impersonating someone online count as a federal felony in identity theft
Current Astro turfing is fake//bot accounts that pretend to be real people pushing anything from conspiracy theories, political discourse, to advertising.
Also make impersonating someone online count as a federal felony in identity theft
Current Astro turfing is fake//bot accounts that pretend to be real people pushing anything from conspiracy theories, political discourse, to advertising.
No one in their right minds would think Texas is a swing state yet, the only reason half these states are in play is because of Trump AND his terrible handling of... everything. That doesn't mean you don't take advantage of what is happening and try to grab an extra senate seat or 3 and state congressional districts that you really have no business winning, especially in a redistricting year.
2018 existed. Everyone hates Trump, his handling of Covid pushed it from a +5 to a +12 and brought other states and races in play, but he was not a favorite and no reason to think he would have won when the US resoundly rejected him and his party in 2018 in historic fashion.
I'm convinced he never wanted to be President. It was all fun and games being up there on the debate stage in 2016, insulting everyone and getting those all-important ratings. I think he would have been happiest to lose during that stage, after a few others had dropped out, then spend the rest of his life golfing, shitposting and sleeping around as usual. Then when he won the nom and it was against a woman, his ego wouldn't let him lose. And so the entire world suffered.
Ask them if they afforded Obama the same privilege.
It's kinda crazy that this is a contest between two people who are prone to putting their foot in their mouth, but one of them is self-aware enough to know this and is perfectly happy staying out of his opponent's way and then there's the guy who's still 100% convinced he has all the best words.
Here's the thing though- Texas has been trending bluer for some time. Trump notwithstanding, the only reason it isn't already a swing state in 2020 is because it has extremely low voter participation (it's either 49th or 50th, despite its population) due to a combination of hispanics not voting at the same rates that other ethnic groups do, and ridiculous voter suppression that is enforced at the local level.
O'rourke's run in 2018 did a lot to put democrats in local positions and get out the vote where it previously wasn't, setting up the state to be competitive in 2020 even though he lost. A texas that goes blue in 2020 is going to permanently accelerate that trend and dismantle a lot of the systemic barriers that kept voter participation low in that state. Someone other than Trump running in 2024 isn't going to stick it back in the Red State column, that horse will have left the barn.
The only reason has always been the electoral college and how undemocratic it is. States like Ohio and Florida might be in play now but I don't think they were before at all. I assumed Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin were swing states before the pandemic and possibly even lean republican.
It makes sense to go after Florida and Ohio ... and Michigan/Penn/Wisconsin should be safe now? It does not make any sense at all to go after Texas and I won't change my mind on that until I see a presidential election within 8 points no matter what any poll says.
Anyway, I don't doubt that Trump would never win the popular vote or that 2018 was a rebuke - the issue always seemed the distribution of votes (the Midwest seemed drifting rightward while gains in states like Arizona/Georgia/Texas were numerically significant for the popular vote but unlikely to be reflected in the electoral college) + midterms have always been terrible for the incumbent. It wasn't ordained before the pandemic that 2018 would be a bellweather for 2020.
Dems in Texas NEED NEED NEED to win those 9 state house seats so we can control redistricting in the state next year. Redistricting is going to determine the future of Texas. If I was a mega wealthy Dem I'd be pumping millions into Texas right now specifically into Texas House seats
"Beautiful World Wars" WTF, I know that's like a go-to phrasing for him, but it's so totally tone deaf.
Yeah when even Fox News is putting out this highly-publicized interview where Chris Wallace isn't just playing the usual games... no dude, you were wrong about COVID, you have no plan for healthcare, your passing a cognitive test doesn't mean shit, Biden doesn't actually support the things you accuse him of, etc. that signals a mood change. The media loved the Trump circus in 2016, but now, at least the more conscientious ones have grown tired of it as the real-world consequences become graver.
I see the intrigue of the 2020 election becoming less about "can Trump pull off another win?" and more "how badly can Trump lose by?" You want clickbait and media attention? Trump might lose Texas. That's a pretty extraordinary story.
AS someone who has adminstered a ton of MOCAs it's always hilarious that Trump makes it sounds like some kind of IQ test when really if you aren't getting very close to perfect there is something wrong.
I think it's less about the Health Care plan specifically and more in relation to Trump's vague proclamation last week that we're about to see things that have "never been done before."
He and Barr are going to push Executive Orders as fiats - as in the DACA ruling gives Trump absolute executive power to change existing and create new interpretations of the law as he see's fit.
Now, I realize that A) this is nothing new as absolute executive authority is something Barr's been pushing ever since he got the AG position and B) none of this actually enforceable and will get tied up in courts until after the election.
Regardless, it's going to be crazy, likely incredibly dangerous, ridiculously distracting from the other important matters at hand
Sir, they said, sir, we've never seen anything like this. And he was a great, strong man with tears in his eyes.
I struggled trying to. Maths. Does anyone really know how it works?
If he was smart, he could have said 86 after Wallace said 93, and wiggled out of that line of questioning. But he didn't.
It's kind of crazy how Trump gets away with installing his cronies in acting roles as head of these agencies seemingly permanently so they can avoid any accountability and not have to be Senate confirmed.
This is indeed looking scary.
It's kind of crazy how many nominal Democrats resign, and bestow Trump with even more power. I mean, look at that dude on the USPS board.
That's not what concern trolling means.
And no, there's still no legitimate reason to worry about elections being canceled.
True. And Democrats in Congress just throw up their hands and go "what can we do?" and hope things go well in November instead of trying to hold the administration accountable now by holding hearings or subpoenaing people to testify.
Democrats in general do this. They represent their constituency very well and pretty much on point. Feckless.
There's a difference between feeling worried vs. bombarding the thread with defeatist ramblings that leapt to the furthest conclusions.
Yeah because they won't just be stonewalled or in court for months and months.
And it's not like they didn't impeach Trump. And even with that, the courts didn't care about subpoenas or anything like that. It's a waste of time given the majority party has chosen to not follow any laws and allow the executive to do what they want and the courts are punting and stalling as much as possible.
But sure it's all the Dems fault.
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