I won't believe Texas is a swing state until I see it play out in November. I hope Biden doesn't try and run the table again. To his credit, it doesn't seem like he's going to fall for the trap.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda
"The most transformative presidents in our nation’s history — Lincoln, FDR, LBJ — were not ideologues."
www.vox.com
Pretty good piece and gives me hope we can shift the fight further left.
It's only a swing state in this election because of Trump, and Biden is doing fine focusing on what he needs to and adding more states in. There are important races in play in TX and Georgia that need money and to ride the coattails of the huge anti Trump fervor. This is not like 2016 and taking the wrong lessons from 2016 does nothing to help
edit: excuse me for misreading and then trying to correct you. i did not think it was that big of a swing from a major trump lead to a respectable biden one.
i don't think trump's led a florida poll in the last month or so. the best result's been a tie, with biden usually over a +5 mark, which would mean there'd have to be a pretty big margin of error, especially as he's getting 50% or more in half of those polls.
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President Trump's campaign to paint Joe Biden as mentally unfit becomes a gamble
Some analysts believe the attacks on Joe Biden's mental fitness could make President Trump more vulnerable among senior voters he's already losing.
www.usatoday.com
Yes triple down on attacking his age and mental awareness. That'll show em.
It'll back fire regardless, if they time that for Friday before the election.
It's going to enrage people and drive them to the poles to vote Trump out.
Even republicans know it's bullshit, and they don't ever want a Comey 2.0 announcement again.
I'll just add this.
Biden will win 41 states!!!!!
If I say it enough, it becomes reality!!!!!!
Biden will win 41 states!!!!!
If I say it enough, it becomes reality!!!!!!
A 5 point bump from RV to LV is ridiculous. Just goes to show how much more success democrats would have if their voters just showed up to vote. And the face that there are Dem trifecta states that still don't make voting easier is ridiculous. All dem states can move to the Colorado model and they don't is a failure of the democratic party.
The names are fairly self-explanatory. But are likely voters a subset of registered voters, or vice-versa? Never really understood the gap.
It doesn't seem like anyone has taken any lessons from 2016, to be honest. But that is okay and it doesn't matter because it's a once in a lifetime pandemic and you could probably put a box with a Che Guevara sticker up and still win against Trump right now. What does seem inevitable is that people will take the wrong lessons from 2020. I'd bet money that if a pandemic had not happened Biden would have lost.
But in any case, my postulations (and everyone else's) on an alternate election don't matter and what-ifs aren't really pertinent to right now. I just still don't think Texas is a swing state and unless I am misremembering, many others here have echoed my hesitation. I would love to be surprised, though. But like I said in my last post - I'm not particularly worried, Biden seems to have his eye on the ball and to have learned from Clinton's campaign errors.
Yeah, they can't come up with a new "scanda"l that close to the election - especially one involving Hunter because no one gives a fuck except people already in the bag for Trump. Those suckers need time to breathe and percolate through the right-wing media system and out into the MSM. With Hillary, it worked because we'd been hearing about buttery emails, Benjamin Ghazi, Whitewater, and "SHE WON'T BAKE COOKIES?!" since the 90's.
I would qualify this: Trump is being sunk not by the pandemic per se, but by his horrific mismanagement of the pandemic. It seems like most leaders around the world have benefited from a "rally round the flag" effect — there are even leaders who've managed COVID badly and come out ahead politically, like Boris Johnson. Trump's utter, sociopathic incompetence is the part that's once-in-a-lifetime.
Do they think a bunch of sick/dead kids and dead parents and teachers, etc... is going to help them somehow? Hell, there only has to be ONE dead child linked to school openings being reported on the news and people will flip the fuck out - and rightly so.
DeSantis is actively trying to kill people, and I'm really trying to wrap my head around their end game here. Why would this bizarre death-cult response to the virus convince ANYONE but super-loons to vote GOP ever again?
Can Florida recall DeSantis? He's killing them.
Fox News Poll: Biden holds lead over Trump as coronavirus concerns grip nation
Coronavirus infected the election.
www.foxnews.com
Biden 49, Trump 41. Biden's lead is +9 with those who are extremely likely to vote.
JFC
I'm speechless.
He just completely made that up - and apparently can't remember what DACA is.
I'm speechless.
He just completely made that up - and apparently can't remember what DACA is.
Wow... LOL
I bet Trump is going to tear into FOX on Twitter. I'm surprised FOX is airing this.
Also, given that Trump won by the narrowest of margins and 2018 had the Midwest snap back hard to the Democrats, I don't think Trump was in a great position to begin with.
Oh man, this is going to be the most painful thing imaginable isn't it.
Parts of Fox News have been surprisingly hard on the Republicans lately. Some of them are just economic conservatives so have no love for the pure culture war they're waging here, some are desperately trying to drum into the GOP's head that not dealing with the coronavirus will kill their election chances. I don't think they're into journalistic integrity all of a sudden, its all self motivated.
I agree. if I'd had to bet on Trump vs Biden back in February, I would have called the race as leaning Biden's way.
Seems very dubious. I can't think of any poll he's been ahead in that category. His anti-science nonresponse to Corona makes me highly skeptical about that number.
I mean once the virus has killed everyone it can kill, sure, it would disappear.
Seriously? Hasn't Trump been down double-digits with that group in other polls?
how long before they start sending DHS to the villages?President Trump's campaign to paint Joe Biden as mentally unfit becomes a gamble
Some analysts believe the attacks on Joe Biden's mental fitness could make President Trump more vulnerable among senior voters he's already losing.www.usatoday.com
Yes triple down on attacking his age and mental awareness. That'll show em.
Exactly. One day, this will all be over. LOL
Trump says Biden is going to have lower TV ratings. OH NO NOT THE TV RATINGS!
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Likely voters screens are *mostly* a subset of Registered voter screens, but not entirely. The criteria for a registered voter screen is super straightforward because it's a boolean question. Usually, to pass a likely voter screen you also need to be registered, but some pollsters and in some states (e.g. where same day registration is allowed), will ultimately count some number of enthusiastic respondents as LV even if they're not yet registered
Yeah thats way out of line with other polls and even the 2018 election results. That Post poll was just too good lol, I needed something to take the edge off.
Also has him ahead with seniors by 1 when in the previous one he was down by 10 in that category. Maybe they changed their methodology.
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