Those morons who think mail voting is fraught with fraud - all it tells me that if you repeat something untrue often enough, people will believe it.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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ABC News @ABC
NEW: A vast 76% of Americans say Pres. Trump, in talking about people he disagrees with, "crosses the line in terms of what's acceptable." 26% say Joe Biden does the same.
12:10 AM · Jul 19, 2020
NEW: A vast 76% of Americans say Pres. Trump, in talking about people he disagrees with, "crosses the line in terms of what's acceptable." 26% say Joe Biden does the same.
12:10 AM · Jul 19, 2020
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A presidential race hasn't been decided by double digits since Regan in 84. No ones going looking for numbers like that. It is possible that pollsters are still undercounting whites without a college degree but that would only shift the results by a point or two.
I pray that the dems use these polls to slam the fuck out of these GOP going into the stimulus issue. GOP is absolutely going to throw Trump into even deeper waters trying to cut COVID funding, UI and force protections for businesses over schools. Looking at some titanic level polling out there for them.
No I'm agreeing with you here. The margins are so huge that it would be a colossal fuck up of epic proportions if pollsters are completely wrong. This is becoming closer and closer to the Taiwan elections where the question is less "is Kuomintang going to lose?" but rather "how badly is Kuomintang going to lose by? 10 points, 20 points?"
It might have implications in more swingy states like Texas (can't believe we're saying this), Arizona (can't believe we're saying this too) and North Carolina, however.
I'm still iffy on polls this far out. It's probably the PTSD from 2016 (Hillary also had double digit polling lead in summer in some polls). A percentage of ashamed republicans will crawl back to the master, we just dont know how much.
Yes this is encouraging. Great to see him into the 50s and well into 50s in this case.
Not even close to comparable. Hillary was leading but the margin was much smaller and their were more undecideds.
Even if that happens, is it enough to eradicate Biden's consistent 50% status, and erase an 8-10 point lead?:
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You never know. Things will tighten the closer we get to November, and the way the EC is structured gives Trump an inherent 4-5 point edge.
This time 4 years ago, Trump was actually up like .5% in the polling average. Hillary all through out had trouble breaking the upper 40s all election.
Biden has had none of those issues.
Hillary did poll double digits from some reputable outfits even in october. But there were so many shitty unnecessary media carnivals with her which I dont see happening with Biden. I understand that Biden's lead is looking more baked in because of how awful Trump has been.
I also don't think the "Republicans are underrepresented" argument really stands. This is D+6 (it was +3 in 2016, but +6 in 2012). The 2018 mid terms were D+4.
If anything both the D and R are underrepresented in favor of I's which would make it a wash (2016 was 36/33 and 2012 was 38/32).
If anything both the D and R are underrepresented in favor of I's which would make it a wash (2016 was 36/33 and 2012 was 38/32).
I would imagine the biggest difference in this election, like the Taiwan election, is that the conservative party is unable to shake off the population's primary concern. In Taiwan, it was the KMT's willingness to co-operate with China and in America its the handling of coronavirus.
The story of 2016 was primarily whether or not you trust Clinton and the late Comey letter release definitely did a number on her. Her disapprovals were well below Biden's, which is also the story of 2020 Trump as well so far.
The story of 2016 was primarily whether or not you trust Clinton and the late Comey letter release definitely did a number on her. Her disapprovals were well below Biden's, which is also the story of 2020 Trump as well so far.
The WaPo poll is another example of Biden doing better on phone polls than online. Presumably because of how far seniors have swung in this election.
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Tightening assumes those voters come back.
Trump never shuts his mouth, the covid pandemic isn't going away, the economy won't magically recover itself and 55% of the country hates his guts.
The race is over IMO. We fight for the senate now.
The numbers are undoubtedly better for Biden than they were for Hillary. He's more likeable, more trusted, he regularly crosses into the 50's, and there's less undecideds.
Still, I mostly am just focusing on the severity of the pandemic here. That dictates everything right now. If there's a sustained 50,000+ daily cases in September and October, Trump has no chance. If there's some miracle and the cases drop to 20,000 or so and stay there by the start of September, he can spin some kind of turnaround narrative. I doubt that would even be enough to save him, but Trump would have some small chance, enough to worry me.
Still, I mostly am just focusing on the severity of the pandemic here. That dictates everything right now. If there's a sustained 50,000+ daily cases in September and October, Trump has no chance. If there's some miracle and the cases drop to 20,000 or so and stay there by the start of September, he can spin some kind of turnaround narrative. I doubt that would even be enough to save him, but Trump would have some small chance, enough to worry me.
From what I can tell, Trump has attracted a not insignificant amount of Black and Latinx men to his side in the past few years. Probably same reason that white men have swung towards Trump, they're into his fake tough guy posturing.
Significant tightening is unlikely, people responding to Trump's presidency questions with strongly disapprove is at minimum 45%. That's 45% of people who are never coming back to Trump, which is an absurdly high number.
Do people care about Hunter Biden? He's a kid who got where he is through mostly nepotism but there's a plague running through America, the economy is falling through the floor, people can't pay rent or eat, and the Trump children are just as guilty if not more so. Some kid getting high paying jobs because of his dad is the least of people's concerns, especially when you have fucking Jared and Ivanka telling everyone to FIND SOMETHING NEW or selling Goya beans in the White House.
Nevermind Trump and Barr have shown themselves to be partisan as fuck with regards to the justice department so people will generally automatically assume there's political motive behind any "October Surprises".
Nevermind Trump and Barr have shown themselves to be partisan as fuck with regards to the justice department so people will generally automatically assume there's political motive behind any "October Surprises".
If the entire country went into full lockdown right now, you might have a prayer of getting cases back down to 20k per day in a couple months. Not to mention that deaths have just begun their upturn and lag by weeks. And that schools will open soon in many places for the first time in months.
If they don't have an airtight case showing serious wrongdoing, I would think that would backfire big league.
Barr has kinda lost whatever credibility he had especially after the hearings last week. If he comes out with an October surprise, it will be seen as a clear political attack by a Trump stooge. Also really hard to drown out 200k dead Americans by October by cheap stunt fuckery. Bill Barr opens criminal investigation into Hunter Biden. Who cares. We don't have enough morgues and cemeteries to hold all the dead.
One final time for Collins to express concern without actually saying or doing anything meaningful.
Yeah, but they never care about the details. It's always been about getting a bullshit scandal on right wing media and knowing that the more reputable news outlets will pick it up and treat it as a real news story at some point.
The only way Hunter Biden is going to seriously bother a notable number of people is if Barr has an airtight case that he's the Zodiac Killer and Joe Biden knew all along.
Who gives a fuck? No one will care what Trump's toady will manufacture. He's no Comey, Biden is no Hillary, and this is no 2016.
Starting the LV screens now.
Yeah, Biden's floor is much higher than Hillary's was. By a lot.
Massive eye emoji here
These are all true and relevant, but I think the biggest stat is how many people will not consider backing Trump. That number has been as high as 50% in some polls. If I was a Trump strategist, that's probably the main stat I'd be polling constantly, and I'd have it on a digital counter in the office to remind people of it. There is a massive number of people who have completely ruled out voting for Trump.
Too little, too late. The Comey letter wasn't the start of some scandal, it was one last reminder of a longtime pounded in "scandal" after decades of smearing of Clinton, coming in a very close race. It confirmed or reaffirmed long held notions by the public about her, a last minute stunt by zero credibility Barr against well liked mild mannered Biden will not land the same.
Right, I see it being unlikely. Still, I can envision a reversal being possible because all major businesses are now requiring masks and word is out that we're in a major spike and it's time to get serious and social distance and stay at home whenever possible. The benefits of that would have to be strong enough to override some states opening up further and school starting back.
Lol
Never ever seen a Presidential polling disparity that large in my life. Should be even larger but y'know... 😒
Biden now leads by 25 points among women, double his margin in late March, and is a non-significant +4 among men, compared with -9 among men then. This includes a broad 60-36% Biden lead among suburban women, compared with a virtual dead heat among suburban men, 49-45%, Trump-Biden
Fuck Todd. Suburban men were a mistake.
Never ever seen a Presidential polling disparity that large in my life. Should be even larger but y'know... 😒
Biden now leads by 25 points among women, double his margin in late March, and is a non-significant +4 among men, compared with -9 among men then. This includes a broad 60-36% Biden lead among suburban women, compared with a virtual dead heat among suburban men, 49-45%, Trump-Biden
Fuck Todd. Suburban men were a mistake.
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On the one hand, I don't believe it and won't believe it until I see it reflected on election day.
On the other hand, we've still got 10-15 points to go until the crazification factor margin. So there's still room for him to go down.
On the other hand, we've still got 10-15 points to go until the crazification factor margin. So there's still room for him to go down.
AK, (maybe KS) and SC are definitely in play now with an advantage that large. We just need more state polls, tho those states arent polled for the general too often, itll be good to start.
From Thursday. Maybe a repost.
www.nbcnews.com
Analysis: Five decades later, Trump is still pushing segregationist policies
Analysis: The president has been saying a fair housing rule backed by Joe Biden would "abolish the suburbs." He means Biden wants to stop segregation.
www.nbcnews.com
"His campaign sounds more like George Wallace than Ronald Reagan," Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins said. "His message is clear: 'Elect me and I'll keep Black people out of your neighborhoods and out of your schools.'"
Trump may think that sounds scary to white suburban swing voters. But they have been fleeing his party — in part because of racism — and their departure threatens both his re-election hopes and the chances that Republicans will keep control of the Senate.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday showed Biden with an 11-point lead over Trump among registered voters nationally, and a Quinnipiac survey released the same day showed Biden with a 15-point margin. By a 62 percent to 33 percent margin, suburban voters told Quinnipiac that Biden would do a better job than Trump of handling the coronavirus crisis.
"The suburbs are a lot more worried Trump will kill them with his competence than Biden will kill them opposing racism," said Stuart Stevens, a longtime GOP strategist and author of the forthcoming book "It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump."
Watching Trump talk about the issue is like playing a documentary on the civil rights movement in reverse slow motion. His "abolish the suburbs" slogan tells a lot about the way he thinks about the world — and the way he thinks voters do — as he scrambles for a foothold in his re-election bid.
To win, he has to recapture some of the white suburbanites who voted more against Hillary Clinton than for him. His approach is a caricature of a campaign to convince them that he is the only thing standing between them and the destruction of some retro 1950s idyll of white suburbia.
Those are Trump's words: "abolish the suburbs." They build on his promise to restore "law and order." And they sound like 1966 Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nominee George P. Mahoney, a segregationist whose slogan was, "Your home is your castle, protect it."
Back then, Maryland suburbs outside Baltimore and Washington were experiencing an influx from "white flight." Now, Montgomery and Prince George's counties, which sit adjacent to the nation's capital, are majority-minority and have median household incomes well above the national average.
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