Biden's advantage among registered voters is up from a virtual dead heat, 49-47%, in late March, before the spiraling pandemic situation hammered Trump's ratings. Biden, similarly, was just +4 among registered voters in January, as economic sentiment hit a 20-year high. That said, what comes can go: Biden led Trump by 17 points last October and 15 in September, leads that he then relinquished, only to fully regain his footing now.
Trump's retreat since the early days of the coronavirus outbreak has been largest in one of his core groups, rural Americans, with his lead among registered voters in this group shrinking from 47 points in late March to 18 points now, 56-38%. As noted Friday, his rating for handling the pandemic also has fallen especially sharply in rural areas. (The race is 52-43%, Biden-Trump, among suburbanites, and 68-27% in urban areas, both essentially steady.)
Regional shifts also are substantial. Biden's advanced in the Midwest, from a dead heat to a 17-point lead. It's close in the South, 50-44%, Biden-Trump, compared with a 13-point Trump lead in late March. And Biden is ahead by 15 points in the Northeast and a broad 30 points in the West.
In a key center group, Biden leads by 54-37% among independents, unchanged from May but up from an even split in March.
Biden now leads by 25 points among women, double his margin in late March, and is a non-significant +4 among men, compared with -9 among men then. This includes a broad 60-36% Biden lead among suburban women, compared with a virtual dead heat among suburban men, 49-45%, Trump-Biden.
Biden holds a 30-point lead among college graduates, 63-33%, vs. +15 points in late March. (Hillary Clinton won this group by just 10 points in 2016, 52-42%.) And Trump has gone from an 18-point lead among white registered voters to a scant 4 points now, while 94% of Black registered voters support Biden.
White Catholics, potentially a swing voter group, divide essentially evenly, 51-47%, Trump-Biden, vs. +13 for Trump in March; Trump won white Catholics by 61-37% in 2016. Trump currently does better, 61-34%, among non-college white men, but this is a group he won with 71% four years ago. Across the political spectrum, college-educated white women favor Biden by 60-38%, compared with their 51-44% vote for Clinton over Trump in 2016.
Trump retains support from 90% of registered voters who say they voted for him in 2016, but loses 8% of them to Biden. Biden, for his part, wins 95% of Clinton's 2016 supporters, with 3% going to Trump.
Notably, too, Biden wins registered voters who are very worried about catching the coronavirus by an overwhelming 82-14%, and those who are somewhat worried by a narrower 53-41%. Those who are less worried, by contrast, prefer Trump, 69-26%.
Indeed, in a statistical analysis called regression, being worried about catching the coronavirus is a significant independent predictor of vote preference, controlling for other factors including partisanship, ideology and demographics.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/YYTAD2U6SBBVPL7Q73X7G4ZHBI.jpg)
