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SwordsmanofS

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,451
I give it another two weeks before the NYT and WP have stories about their being serious consideration about Trump dropping out. I called months ago that their would be open talk about whether Trump really wanted to run again. This would just be the evolution of that.
 

GrapeApes

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,492


Apparently Bill & Hillary Clinton have been executed and when Trump wins reelection, the White House is going to start a pay-per-view channel where you can watch their executions. https://t.co/DAHm5hzNkg

False alarm


Don't worry everyone. I just checked and whew, my parents are fine despite apparently being hung March 28th (wave mom @HillaryClinton) and shot at some unspecified time (wave dad @BillClinton).
This is deranged and dangerous. It has to be laughed at and taken seriously. https://t....
 

Darkstar0155

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,163
I think the inevitable second wave (combined with economic disaster, kids dying from going to school, mass evictions, etc.) might get him down to 25% but no further than that.
If this gets even worse again this fall (very possible) and NFL games are hampered in some great way (very likely) I could see him dropping under 30, but just barely. No way would he ever drop below 25% unless something really crazy happens like him just having a completely bat shit crazy debate performance (possible).
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,385

Chart_TrumpsHandling_v02_DP_1594924321652_hpEmbed_17x12_608.jpg

Table_ApproveOfTrump_v01_DP_1594924173504_hpEmbed_3x2_608.jpg

Chart_PandemicPriorities_v01_DP_1594924098044_hpEmbed_17x12_608.jpg


abcnews.go.com

64% distrust Trump on coronavirus pandemic; approval declines as cases grow: POLL

Six in 10 in a new ABC/Post poll disapprove of how he’s handling COVID.

That plummet in rural as COVID spread out of the cities. Suddenly it became real for all of those people.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
I don't think there is going to be much of a second wave when states are just ignoring it, it'll just be this constant drumbeat of ever increasing to steadily hold at high levels of positives. PA who rode the first wave down already backtracked on its opening when cases jumped a bit (even with increased testing because we believe in science and not excusal bullshit) and closed bars again, limited indoor dining from 50 to 25% and are watching gyms closely... Governor said the large majority of new outbreaks were coming from young people crowding bars according to the contract tracer's.

the constant drumbeat will do even worse for Trump because he won't be able to get his head above the Covid water to change the narrative. No one cares about anything he has to say when coronavirus is all over the news. It doesn't help when everything he says people think he's even more of an idiot like... statues, or suburban planning, or immigration when no one wants to come to the virus ridden shithole, or even his inexplicable "white people get shot too!"

his numbers will continue to get worse. I'm not sure the EV can change much more from the 400 Biden will get, but he will win ultra red states but much smaller margins and lose swing and blue states by huge margins
 

plagiarize

Eating crackers
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,540
Cape Cod, MA
I don't think there is going to be much of a second wave when states are just ignoring it, it'll just be this constant drumbeat of ever increasing to steadily hold at high levels of positives. PA who rode the first wave down already backtracked on its opening when cases jumped a bit (even with increased testing because we believe in science and not excusal bullshit) and closed bars again, limited indoor dining from 50 to 25% and are watching gyms closely... Governor said the large majority of new outbreaks were coming from young people crowding bars according to the contract tracer's.

the constant drumbeat will do even worse for Trump because he won't be able to get his head above the Covid water to change the narrative. No one cares about anything he has to say when coronavirus is all over the news. It doesn't help when everything he says people think he's even more of an idiot like... statues, or suburban planning, or immigration when no one wants to come to the virus ridden shithole, or even his inexplicable "white people get shot too!"

his numbers will continue to get worse. I'm not sure the EV can change much more from the 400 Biden will get, but he will win ultra red states but much smaller margins and lose swing and blue states by huge margins
What will happen, second wave or not, is regular flu season is going to heap even more burden onto already over burdened hospitals.
 

Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,572
The drop to below 50 in the rural areas in how he handled the pandemic has to have GOP campaign managers fuming.

I give it another two weeks before the NYT and WP have stories about their being serious consideration about Trump dropping out. I called months ago that their would be open talk about whether Trump really wanted to run again. This would just be the evolution of that.

He isn't dropping out. He'll jettison Pence and try a new VP, but he won't quit.
 

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
15,789
Last edited:

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,385
Only the biggest fool would attach themselves as VP to a dying campaign on course for a brutal crash and burn. Or some grifter looking to make some name recognition briefly.
But any of the ones that think they're going to run for president in the future, not a chance.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,993
I am hoping that we'll have a relatively mild flu season due to increased social distancing, mask use, and handwashing.
That may help a bit, although much of the population ignores such things. The problem is some flu symptoms are similar to covid symptoms, which could generate an increase in fear, in testing, hospital visits, etc.
 

pollo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,441

Here they are. Mostly showing that the Dems have an outside shot at picking up some very red districts like NC 09 and TX 24.



I moved 10 minutes away and I'm back in VA 10 from VA 11. Don't think my vote matters anymore though, I'm pretty sure VA 10 is Safe D for a loooong while. Just goes to show how crazy Virginia growth has been, epecially since Comstock won '16....that's not happening anytime soon anymore...
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Its going to get really bad when schools reopen and kids start dying. It makes me sick to my stomach
If you are waiting for that, you'll be disappointed, thankfully.

I also think that most places that are taking this seriously will have a relatively mild flu because the precautions are the same. How that translates to Florida and other's? Good luck
 

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
15,789
LOL, please proceed.



Kellyanne Conway thinks Trump should bring back daily covid briefings. "The President's numbers were much higher when he was out there briefing everybody on a day by day basis about the coronavirus. Just giving people the information. I think the president should be doing that."

Sleeper agent, Kellyanne, activated.
 

Mezentine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,973
Kids have been as exposed as most adults, and the 0-14 age group which is about 18.5% of the population is only 0.02% of covid deaths.
I don't think kids will ever reach 18% of the deaths, but I expect their proportion to rise as they spend more time in enclosed spaces with other people than the adults who are still working from home or able to maintain distancing, and I expect them to get higher doses of the virus because they'll be together for hours.

A classroom seems like quite possibly the worst conceivable environment for this virus. Working in a cube farm is probably safer
 
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Newlib

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,822
Is that the first time someone in the Trump camp as acknowledged that his poll numbers are shit?
 

shiba5

I shed
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
15,789
Looking at what's happening in Portland, I'm really worried about Trump's ominous "things happening in the next 8 weeks that no one has ever seen before".

Is that the first time someone in the Trump camp as acknowledged that his poll numbers are shit?

I think publicly. Apparently they give him fake polls that show he's winning so they know his real numbers are terrible.
 

Sobriquet

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
9,875
Wilmington, NC
Here they are. Mostly showing that the Dems have an outside shot at picking up some very red districts like NC 09 and TX 24.


I feel bad for Dan McCready who barely lost to Dan Bishop last year (NC-09). I feel like if he was running this time around, he'd be able to pull it off. For those unfamiliar with NC politics, Dan Bishop is the worst. Architect of the infamous HB-2 bill.
 
Jun 8, 2019
198
What's funny about the Kellyanne comment is the complete lack of comprehension re: causality. Trump's numbers were higher then because he had a rally around the flag bump, which he subsequently wasted by being bad at his job and prioritizing policy-empty press conferences to give himself extra airtime. The solution is not to bring back vanity press conferences. It's too be good at his job and fight the virus. The same thing that has always been the obvious solution since Feb. But we all know why it won't happen...

Like, Trump obviously thinks that showmanship is everything but sometimes I still lose sight of the extent to which the entire GOP sees politics as a reality show and not a vehicle for improving people's lives.
 

MrHedin

Member
Dec 7, 2018
6,815
Nikki Haley appears to to still be chasing that chicken.

I think it would be incredibly stupid for Haley to tie herself to Trump more than she already has with the UN position at this point. Yes it might help her Republican bonafides enough for a primary but that would be a huge lodestone in any general election.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,993
I don't think kids will ever reach 18% of the deaths, but I expect their proportion to rise as they spend more time in enclosed spaces with other people than the adults who are still working from home or able to maintain distancing, and I expect them to get higher doses of the virus because they'll be together for hours.

A classroom seems like quite possibly the worst conceivable environment for this virus. Working in a cube farm is probably safer
Something I never see mentioned re schools. A lot of talk of classrooms but no mention of the time between classrooms. When the bell rings, that's every kid in the school in the indoor hallways. Also I'm highly skeptical that schools will provide enough cleaning supplies for teachers to wipe down all the desks a couple of times a day, or whatever the guidance is.

www.huffpost.com

I'm A Teacher And I'm Terrified Of What Could Happen When Schools Reopen

We are being asked to do the impossible this fall.
 

Chrome Hyena

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,768
What will happen, second wave or not, is regular flu season is going to heap even more burden onto already over burdened hospitals.
Yep. 10s of thousands die of the flu every year. Add it to Covid, which has similar symptoms and i can see a huge mess in hospitals. Basically everyone who looks like they have the flu will have to be treated like they have Covid.
 
Jan 29, 2018
9,390
Pretty sure I got COVID again. Waiting on my test results from two different locations since Monday. My symptoms are basically on the same timeframe as last time but not as severe right now.

Well damn. I'm sure there's an answer, but I guess I don't understand how a vaccine is supposed to work if you can contract COVID twice in a 3-4 month period. My grade-school understanding of the immune system is that a vaccine is supposed to get your body to produce the same antibodies that you would have from recovering from an infection.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Something I never see mentioned re schools. A lot of talk of classrooms but no mention of the time between classrooms. When the bell rings, that's every kid in the school in the indoor hallways. Also I'm highly skeptical that schools will provide enough cleaning supplies for teachers to wipe down all the desks a couple of times a day, or whatever the guidance is.

www.huffpost.com

I'm A Teacher And I'm Terrified Of What Could Happen When Schools Reopen

We are being asked to do the impossible this fall.

most sane places aren't allowing that. Stay in one room, stagger lunches, etc.

If you just open schools how they were last year you get that Israel story. If you space things, enforce face coverings, avoid busses as much as possible, you get a different story (the multitude of statistics and stories throughout Europe who have successfully opened and maintained schools).

A lot of school districts can't space and should run a modified schedule to help that. It's also why elementary schools are safer that high schools. The kids don't move, teachers don't change, and space is a little higher.

all this is also assuming you aren't in an area with an uncontrolled outbreak. Once that happens, I'm sure the above does nothing to help
 

mightynine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,147
Only the biggest fool would attach themselves as VP to a dying campaign on course for a brutal crash and burn. Or some grifter looking to make some name recognition briefly.
But any of the ones that think they're going to run for president in the future, not a chance.

Hmmm, Tucker's vacation = VP vetting? I'm just asking questions!
 

Mulligan

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,505
Well damn. I'm sure there's an answer, but I guess I don't understand how a vaccine is supposed to work if you can contract COVID twice in a 3-4 month period. My grade-school understanding of the immune system is that a vaccine is supposed to get your body to produce the same antibodies that you would have from recovering from an infection.

I'll know for sure today. There's a rapid testing center that just opened up at St. Simon Stock School on 182nd and Valentine in Tremont, The Bronx for those that want to get tested in the five boroughs.
 
www.nytimes.com

The Democrats Are Downsizing Their Convention to Almost Nothing (Published 2020)

An event that was once expected to draw 50,000 people to Milwaukee may now involve just 300, with plans still far from settled a month before the convention.

The Democrats' "Convention Across America" is currently planning for almost exclusively digital speeches, including people like Obama, Clinton and Carter. Now planning to be only three hours of speeches per night.

I feel like they should make use of this to stage some of the big-ticket speakers in interesting locations.
 

Jeffapp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,247
Here's a question can someone be charged with the hatch act after leaving office? Cause charging ivanka now would be useless cause trump would just pardon her. But with democratic controlled congress this could be a real crowbar into investigations.
 

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,522
This is a really great interview with David Shor on modern elections. I think this take away explains a lot if what happened with Clinton's campaign in 2016, in addition to Comey of course.

The actual mechanical reason was that the Clinton campaign hired pollsters to test a bunch of different messages, and for boring mechanical reasons, working-class people with low levels of social trust were much less likely to answer those phone polls than college-educated professionals. And as a result, all of this cosmopolitan, socially liberal messaging did really well in their phone polls, even though it ultimately cost her a lot of votes.

nymag.com

David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

A socialist data scientist (and supposed cancel-culture victim) details all he learned from eight years at the apex of Democratic consulting.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,993
most sane places aren't allowing that. Stay in one room, stagger lunches, etc.

If you just open schools how they were last year you get that Israel story. If you space things, enforce face coverings, avoid busses as much as possible, you get a different story (the multitude of statistics and stories throughout Europe who have successfully opened and maintained schools).

A lot of school districts can't space and should run a modified schedule to help that. It's also why elementary schools are safer that high schools. The kids don't move, teachers don't change, and space is a little higher.

all this is also assuming you aren't in an area with an uncontrolled outbreak. Once that happens, I'm sure the above does nothing to help
Agreed. Staying in one room all day may work for junior schools. It doesn't work for high schools though. Kids are taking different subjects with different teachers.
 

Ignatz Mouse

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,741
Only the biggest fool would attach themselves as VP to a dying campaign on course for a brutal crash and burn. Or some grifter looking to make some name recognition briefly.
But any of the ones that think they're going to run for president in the future, not a chance.

So the stage is set for Sarah Palin's comeback!
 

SolarPowered

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,211
Here they are. Mostly showing that the Dems have an outside shot at picking up some very red districts like NC 09 and TX 24.


Hopefully this bodes well for Mike Siegel and Donna Imam in TX-10 and TX-31 as well. I know Candace Valenzuela is already benefiting from the blue surge in her district. Trump just keeps making the blue Tsunami stronger. I hope NY-24 gets some polling eventually as well. John Katko's 2014/2016 20 point win margin was brought down to 5 points by Dana Balter in 2018. After the NY covid disaster people have to be pissed and ready to vote.
 

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
93,085

discotheque

Member
Dec 23, 2019
3,860
This is a really great interview with David Shor on modern elections. I think this take away explains a lot if what happened with Clinton's campaign in 2016, in addition to Comey of course.



nymag.com

David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

A socialist data scientist (and supposed cancel-culture victim) details all he learned from eight years at the apex of Democratic consulting.
This is super interesting (especially coming from a Marxist):

When you take the results of the 2012 and 2016 elections, and model changes in Democratic vote share, you see the biggest individual-level predictor for vote switching was education; college-educated people swung toward Democrats and non-college-educated people swung toward Republicans. But, if you ask a battery of "racial resentment" questions — stuff like, "Do you think that there are a lot of white people who are having trouble finding a job because nonwhite people are getting them instead?" or, "Do you think that white people don't have enough influence in how this country is run?" — and then control for the propensity to answer those questions in a racially resentful way, education ceases to be the relevant variable: Non-college-educated white people with low levels of racial resentment trended towards us in 2016, and college-educated white people with high levels of racial resentments turned against us.

You can say, "Oh, you know, the way that political scientists measure racial resentment is a class marker because college-educated people know that they're not supposed to say politically incorrect things." But when you look at Trump's support in the Republican primary, it correlated pretty highly with, uh … racially charged … Google search words. So you had this politician who campaigned on an anti-immigrant and anti–political correctness platform. And then he won the votes of a large group of swing voters, and vote switching was highly correlated with various individual level measures of racial resentment — and, on a geographic level, was correlated with racist search terms. At some point, you have to be like, oh, actually, these people were motivated by racism. It's just an important fact of the world.
 
Oct 29, 2017
13,470
Something I never see mentioned re schools. A lot of talk of classrooms but no mention of the time between classrooms. When the bell rings, that's every kid in the school in the indoor hallways. Also I'm highly skeptical that schools will provide enough cleaning supplies for teachers to wipe down all the desks a couple of times a day, or whatever the guidance is.

www.huffpost.com

I'm A Teacher And I'm Terrified Of What Could Happen When Schools Reopen

We are being asked to do the impossible this fall.

Yep this is actually the main reason why I think reopening schools is entirely unsafe: the time between classes. They can't control hallways full of children, they can't stop them from interacting, holding hands, rough-housing, etc. And all it takes is one interaction for the virus to transmit and it just spreads from there. There's no way they have enough supplies or time to wipe down and sanitize their classrooms in-between courses, I remember what school was like and how little time you had to get to your next class.

What about school buses, are the drivers going to wipe down every single seat and handle in the bus any time a child comes and goes? Are they going to be able to keep an eye on the road AND make sure that kids are wearing masks and not physically interacting? What about not having enough seating on the bus to prevent kids from sitting 2-3 to a seat on the bus?

This whole situation is fuckin absurd.
 

gcubed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Agreed. Staying in one room all day may work for junior schools. It doesn't work for high schools though. Kids are taking different subjects with different teachers.
Yup, and as you skew to elementary aged kids you have even better outcomes, which is why most places in Europe let elementary open first. "Fully open" without mitigation or any worry about spread is a dumb idea, even more so because adults have to actually teach, manage and clean the schools. Even worse, bus drivers skew older and more susceptible. Teachers in areas run by stupid politicians should not agree to march to their potential death... especially for the shit pay they get in the first place
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,562
I wouldn't mind a bigger house margin. It will allow a lot of them to vote with their constituents in some of these super red districts.
 
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