The difference between 2016 and 2020 is pretty simple if you compare this poll to the late June 2016 Q-poll. % of people who feel STRONGLY unfavorable about a candidate in June 2016: Clinton: 50% Trump: 48% and in July 2020... Biden: 31% Trump: 53%
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Looks like they rolled the dice and came up like shit, trying to roll it back a bit.
Fauci even being in the shot is absolutely intentional in the most chicken shit way ever by this admin.
That -21 is literally the Biden primary strategy that COVID will not allow us to close, but upside is Trump is losing whites in droves.
Just wait until next week's GOYA polling comes back. RAS will have him tied.
Or in other words, the DSCC spends money supporting the candidates it considers most likely to win.
Ocasio-Cortez is no dummy, she's not going to throw away her congressional seat like that. Schumer is an expert organizer who, unlike most of the incumbents who've gotten knocked off in recent years, isn't disconnected from his state (indeed, on his last re-election campaign he dedicated extra time over the years making sure he visited as much of the upstate as he could just to drive up his numbers, which was totally unnecessary from an electoral standpoint).
Delving deeper into that poll:
Do not trust Trump about COVID-19:
67-30
Trust Dr. Fauci: 65-26
Trust CDC: 61-33
RE-OPENING OF SCHOOLS
Disapprove of how Trump is handling school reopening: 61-29
It is unsafe to send students to school: 62-31
It is unsafe to send students to college: 59-34
Just absolutely brutal numbers for an incumbent.
Do not trust Trump about COVID-19:
67-30
Trust Dr. Fauci: 65-26
Trust CDC: 61-33
RE-OPENING OF SCHOOLS
Disapprove of how Trump is handling school reopening: 61-29
It is unsafe to send students to school: 62-31
It is unsafe to send students to college: 59-34
Just absolutely brutal numbers for an incumbent.
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Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll
Quinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern.poll.qu.edu
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Voters now give Biden a slight lead over Trump in a direct match up when it comes to handling the economy. Voters say 50 - 45 percent that Biden would do a better job handling the economy, a reversal from June when Trump held a slight lead 51 - 46 percent.
Asked about other key issues:
* On handling a crisis, Biden leads 57 - 38 percent;
* On handling health care, Biden leads 58 - 35 percent;
* On the coronavirus response, Biden leads 59 - 35 percent;
* On addressing racial inequality, Biden leads 62 - 30 percent.
🚨
On the Russian bounty issue:
"Seventy-seven percent of voters say they are either "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" about reports that Russia paid bounties for the killing of American soldiers in Afghanistan. Twenty percent say they are "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all."
Fifty-nine percent say they think President Trump is not telling the truth regarding what he knew about reports of Russian payments to kill American troops. Twenty-nine percent say they think he is telling the truth."
This story will be a major part of the campaign, I think.
"Seventy-seven percent of voters say they are either "very concerned" or "somewhat concerned" about reports that Russia paid bounties for the killing of American soldiers in Afghanistan. Twenty percent say they are "not so concerned" or "not concerned at all."
Fifty-nine percent say they think President Trump is not telling the truth regarding what he knew about reports of Russian payments to kill American troops. Twenty-nine percent say they think he is telling the truth."
This story will be a major part of the campaign, I think.
The interesting thing to me is that his approval rating on specific issues like handling of Covid is now well below his general approval. There's a lot that feeds into this (economy, won't vote for a D) but I think it means there is a possibility his floor is under 40%, since Covid is likely the issue in November.
Monmouth PA poll makes sense now that I think about it. Boaters probably in New Jersey right now.
I hope she retires the second Biden is sworn in. Too much is riding on one person.
Once Biden's in office (and assume a D Senate), then she doesn't have to leave immediately. She and Breyer absolutely need to both go within the first two years.
lol
Jennifer Jacobs @JenniferJJacobs
Pence tweets a photo of himself listening to Fauci.
Mike Pence @Mike_Pence
Productive meeting of the @WhiteHouse Coronavirus Task Force today. As we continue to put the health and well-being of the American people first, we are working closely with states to move forward, safely reopening our Nation and get Americans back to work.
3:44 PM · Jul 15, 2020
4:03 PM · Jul 15, 2020
Pence tweets a photo of himself listening to Fauci.
Mike Pence @Mike_Pence
Productive meeting of the @WhiteHouse Coronavirus Task Force today. As we continue to put the health and well-being of the American people first, we are working closely with states to move forward, safely reopening our Nation and get Americans back to work.
3:44 PM · Jul 15, 2020
Clinton invested heavily into the demographic and states with heavy hispanic populations. At this point we're pretty late to the game for it and COIVD isn't going to help the matter. Spanish outreach is hard as hell and Biden didn't have the resources to even attempt it during the primary. One can argue it also has to do with the demographic skewing younger, but honestly I recall listening to I forget what podcast it was that stipulated that the 2016 take away was that Hispanic outreach for as great as it looked on paper, ultimately handed nothing over for Clinton. That perhaps the dem take away was that it wasn't particularly necessary to invest as heavily. Which I dunno, man if that was the ultimate take away then it worries me particularly going into the current general where it feels like we've been under siege for fucking years now under this admin. Shit sucks, I'm hopeful that someone in the campaign makes real efforts for improving those numbers. Might help out in states considering we're pushing for as much of a chance in toss up states but who knows. The most we have is reports from a month or so ago confused as to what Biden's message to hispanic voters even was.
Yeah, I was being hyperbolic, and once the pressure is off I won't freak out every time I see her name trending.
I don't see any of the rumored candidates moving that needle.
For years we speculated on what it would take to sink Trump to a solid -25 approval. Turns out it was 20% unemployment, no major sports, caping for the Confederacy in the midst of social unrest, and him telling kids, teachers, waitresses, and grandmas to please die for the economy.
MORE. I want to see -40
A Biden +12 victory would end up as:
Biden 55%
Trump 43%
Others: 2%
Pretty much oof territory.
Biden 55%
Trump 43%
Others: 2%
Pretty much oof territory.
Thanks for the explantion. Dems really need to step up their game here if they want to take advantage of the rapidly changing demographics. I'm still surprised Biden is polling so close to Trump when Trump has shown repeatedly how racist he is and how much he hates immigrants - and Trump has somehow increased his popularity by 7 points. It boggles.
Had a bit of a moment just now going to cnbc.com and seeing the breaking news ticker at the top say "Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg d..." only to have it scroll and say "discharged".
Trump's "strongly unfavorable" up only 5% in 4 years, after a total dumpster fire of a presidency and more scandals than anyone can count.
Had not considered that there was almost no support for a counter-narrative to bounty-gate. The best the WH could come up with was "he didn't know at the time", and now that it's out there, he still hasn't made a statement on it. Nearly 80% being concerned about it means that it's going to get brought up on the debate stage.
When Quinnipiac calls their shot... They hit it.
Infrastructure speech in Georgia:
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Twitter Videos:
Daniel Dale @ddale8
In today's official (taxpayer-funded) speech in Georgia, Trump is now attacking "the Biden administration," when Biden was vice president, and attacking Biden's current proposals at length.
4:20 PM · Jul 15, 2020
In today's official (taxpayer-funded) speech in Georgia, Trump is now attacking "the Biden administration," when Biden was vice president, and attacking Biden's current proposals at length.
4:20 PM · Jul 15, 2020
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Twitter Videos:
The absolute farthest I could see him going would be shutting down bars and indoor dining, but I doubt he'll even do that much. A mask mandate is more likely, but even that is kind of pointless when none of the cops around here are willing to enforce the mandate. DeWine was crushing it in the beginning of all of this (and so was Dr. Acton, who is brilliant, looks like my mom, and will live forever in my heart), but I can't tell if the fuck-ups lately have just been him "coming home" and showing his true colors, caving to pressure from protesters, or if his ability to respond to this adequately has been completely knee-caped by lack of federal support. Either way, as an Ohioan, the COVID-180 from his admin has been infuriating.
It's astounding. Just like how Trump has continually polled well on the economy despite doing everything in his power to fuck it up.
Mindboggling how the Hispanic disparity isn't as large as the AA one. Trump has been an anti-Hispanic racist since before he was even president. Yet his numbers improve? Huh?
Biden +15...
Looks like it's time to believe in 'BIDEN WILL WIN 41 STATES'
If we say it enough times it'll come true :p
The main issue is also that the expectation is you seemingly triage the waning support with stop gap solution last second when previous elections show even concerted efforts are tough. 2016 Clinton campaign found that the negative ads don't necessarily always work against Trump for Hispanic voters. It isn't just a monolith of immigration, though frankly the GOP force the nation's hand to assume that's it. 2016 showed that like most other people we just want stability... jobs and a working economy that's equitable, with immigration tailing behind in second because we became the focus of the issue in the first place. At the same time, 2016 identifies the problem that outreach to Hispanics is tough, a lot of pollsters don't hit us and a lot of eligible Hispanics simply don't vote.
There's no single shot solution, I can tell you from experience canvassing locally that registering older Spanish voters is incredibly harder than the younger demos. I don't really have a solution other than to just keep plugging away. Again from my own experience just getting one member of a Spanish speaking family going and jazzed for voting has a much bigger cascading effect when you deal with multi-family home situations. Knocking down the kids first then they knock down the parent as a voter was the strategy we were given and idk, I think that works, but it's still hard. With COVID, that kind of outreach just doesn't seem possible though, I don't know how you overcome that problem.
There's no single shot solution, I can tell you from experience canvassing locally that registering older Spanish voters is incredibly harder than the younger demos. I don't really have a solution other than to just keep plugging away. Again from my own experience just getting one member of a Spanish speaking family going and jazzed for voting has a much bigger cascading effect when you deal with multi-family home situations. Knocking down the kids first then they knock down the parent as a voter was the strategy we were given and idk, I think that works, but it's still hard. With COVID, that kind of outreach just doesn't seem possible though, I don't know how you overcome that problem.
Oh for sure. Every time I run into someone in real life who dejectedly says they just know Trump is going to win again and how I can't trust the polls, and blah blah blah, I just ask them:
When was the last time that Trump made something better?
When was the last time that the month you are living in was better than the month that came before it?
What do you think Trump can do between now and November to change anything for the better, and does it seem like something he would actually do?
I guess I was expecting his polling to decrease as younger Hispanics became eligible to vote. Instead, it goes up. We need to get more minorites excited about politics and I know that's going to be really tough - especially seeing how broken the system really is.
The only reason people thought she had it in the bag was because of the Access Hollywood tape. It's still crazy that the tape didn't completely end that campaign.
Everyone was soooo damn sure she was going to win... but the signs were all there...
So many people are soooo damn sure Trump will pull a rabbit out of his hat and turn things around and eek out a slim EC victory again... but the signs are all there...
I feel like any effects of the tape were negated by that fucking Comey announcement.
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