My dad has a small business and reopened because he had to open again because of the government loans he took have to be used to pay his employees by a certain date or else the loans won't be forgiven and he would have to pay them back. The business is so slow its basically not worth it but he can't pay back the loans due to the lack of business so he had to open again. He doesn't know what's going to happen when those loans run out. I'm sure a large number of small businesses are in the same situation and once the government loans run out many will close their doors for good.
Yeah, the "recovery" we've seen is super inflated. It's a false prop-up job with the hope that maybe businesses/investors would jump in and hand out cash to keep it going. Naturally, they'd all rather the govt do it so that's not happening. If another stimulus bill isn't passed and signed (at least equal to the previous one), then July and August are going to be brutal.
I said this a few months ago, but the way to think about COVID and the economy is to go back to January and February. Consider each sector of the economy, and ask them how much of a haircut they can afford to take and stay in business. Then come back to the present day and see where demand for each of those sectors is sitting. Actual demand, not false hopes ("people are dying to get back into restaurants so demand is massive!"). Whatever the drop off is in demand from Jan to now, see how that stacks up against the revenue reductions you found in step 1.
That's what killed me about all those small business people who were protesting shutdown orders. Your customers don't all want to come back if there's a chance of catching COVID! So the whole idea from the GOP that the economy is just itching to get back to January is ridiculous. Their options are govt bailouts or bankruptcy (unless they're fortunate enough to be able to handle the haircut).
