US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.

Soul Skater · Jun 6, 2020

Once again Beto is a moron

he could have ticket split above Biden and won if it's close

Cornyn doesn't have the Latino support Cruz had

Isro · Jun 6, 2020

Leery about going on a possible fool's errand with Texas. 2016 was all about Arizona and Georgia that never materialized. Rather have them recapture / rebuild the blue wall plus Arizona or NC.

MetalMagus · Jun 6, 2020

Zache said:
This screams Mitch McConnell

While I have not doubts that McConnell is already formulating plans on how a Republican Senate can sabotage Biden so he's only a "one term president" - he NEEDS that sixth Supreme Court seat to flip conservative. Even he can't block a nomination from Biden in his first year, so RBG's seat would be safe after she retires on Jan 1st. Breyer might follow soon after, keeping his seat a lock.

From there I've no doubts Thomas will stay on as long as possible (since by all appearances he's already enjoying his retirement) - but like with Scalia, sometimes you don't to choose when you go.

McConnell needs Trump to win, otherwise his window is probably closed for good.

Schlep · Jun 6, 2020

AniHawk said:
not that i believe it'll happen for a while, but dems carrying texas would be amazing. maybe it'd be one of those things like nc in 2008 where it's a sign of things to come but won't materialize as a long-term swing state for another decade.

This is a 100% accurate read. Trump is uniquely unpopular in the state. Get a smooth, professional seeming Republican at the top of the ticket in 2024 and it flips back instantly.

Ogodei · Jun 6, 2020

Crossposting from the George Floyd thread. My gimmick for the protest was to bring a whiteboard and solicit black people to put in their thoughts on what they want people to hear.

Deleted member 12224 · Jun 6, 2020

MetalMagus said:
While I have not doubts that McConnell is already formulating plans on how a Republican Senate can sabotage Biden so he's only a "one term president" - he NEEDS that sixth Supreme Court seat to flip conservative. Even he can't block a nomination from Biden in his first year, so RBG's seat would be safe after she retires on Jan 1st. Breyer might follow soon after, keeping his seat a lock.

From there I've no doubts Thomas will stay on as long as possible (since by all appearances he's already enjoying his retirement) - but like with Scalia, sometimes you don't to choose when you go.

McConnell needs Trump to win, otherwise his window is probably closed for good.

You shouldn't expect Biden to have a full cabinet, let alone a SC Justice, if McConnell is Majority Leader.

jack_package_200 · Jun 6, 2020

Defund the Police

America needs to rethink its priorities for the whole criminal-justice system.

www.theatlantic.com

As a general point, the United States has an extreme budget commitment to prisons, guns, warplanes, armored vehicles, detention facilities, courts, jails, drones, and patrols—to law and order, meted out discriminately. It has an equally extreme budget commitment to food support, aid for teenage parents, help for the homeless, child care for working families, safe housing, and so on. It feeds the former and starves the latter.

Clear and to the goddamn point

Chaos Legion · Jun 6, 2020

cagey said:
You shouldn't expect Biden to have a full cabinet, let alone a SC Justice, if McConnell is Majority Leader.

I can't imagine Biden choosing a cabinate candidate that wouldn't pass Congress with relative ease.

Biden's committed to nominating the first black supreme Court woman justice. Not sure Mitch would oppose that.

Hella · Jun 6, 2020

DrFunk said:
TThere's nothing this man cannot destroy

100 years from now no one's gonna believe this man was real.

"But cherished parent, wasn't America in the middle of a global pandemic at the time? He wouldn't just walk in without a mask!" And then you'd have to neural-link them this article as proof. And then cry.

Deleted member 12224 · Jun 6, 2020

Chaos Legion said:
I can't imagine Biden choosing a cabinate candidate that wouldn't pass Congress with relative ease.

Biden's committed to nominating the first black supreme Court woman justice. Not sure Mitch would oppose that.

Am I wrong or doesn't the nomination of someone require the Majority Leader making a decision to put to the nominee a full Senate vote? Unless there would be an internal revolt to replace him as Majority Leader, what incentive would he have to permit such votes on justices, judges, etc. to occur? For 2022?

He's already effectively exposed a fundamental flaw in the government and exploited it to tremendous success. Why quit now?

Kaitos · Jun 6, 2020

Chaos Legion said:
I can't imagine Biden choosing a cabinate candidate that wouldn't pass Congress with relative ease.

Biden's committed to nominating the first black supreme Court woman justice. Not sure Mitch would oppose that.

oh you.

TheDestructiveSquirrel · Jun 6, 2020

cagey said:
Am I wrong or doesn't the nomination of someone require the Majority Leader making a decision to put to the nominee a full Senate vote? Unless there would be an internal revolt to replace him as Majority Leader, what incentive would he have to permit such votes on justices, judges, etc. to occur? For 2022?

He's already effectively exposed a fundamental flaw in the government and exploited it to tremendous success. Why quit now?

Let's say Biden wins in a landslide, Dems increase their majority in congress but don't get the senate and covid is no longer an issue

Imagine the protests if McConnel didn't let the senate vote on the first black women on the supreme court

thuway · Jun 6, 2020

Isn't there a pretty good chance democrats take the senate?

Poodlestrike · Jun 6, 2020

thuway said:
Isn't there a pretty good chance democrats take the senate?

There is, as of late. It's... still kind of going to be an uphill climb, but there's encouraging signs, at least.

Luminish · Jun 6, 2020

TheDestructiveSquirrel said:
Let's say Biden wins in a landslide, Dems increase their majority in congress but don't get the senate and covid is no longer an issue

Imagine the protests if McConnel didn't let the senate vote on the first black women on the supreme court

There isn't a chance in hell there'd be a protest over that. The type of people who do real protests aren't the type of people who are hugely concerned with protecting institutions and norms.

There may be a demonstration like the Womans March or March for Science, but McConnell has absolutely no incentive to care since he knows everyone in that demonstration never voted republican to begin with.

Poodlestrike · Jun 6, 2020

thepotatoman said:
There isn't a chance in hell there'd be a protest over that. The type of people who do real protests aren't the type of people who are hugely concerned with protecting institutions and norms.

There may be a demonstration like the Womans March or March for Science, but McConnell has absolutely no incentive to care since he knows everyone in that demonstration never voted republican to begin with.

Agreed.

Soul Skater · Jun 6, 2020

TheDestructiveSquirrel said:
Let's say Biden wins in a landslide, Dems increase their majority in congress but don't get the senate and covid is no longer an issue

Imagine the protests if McConnel didn't let the senate vote on the first black women on the supreme court

if they keep the senate despite what's happened and the current civil unrest right now that means they are untouchable and have no reason to listen to anyone.

Dems will just respond pathetically as they usually do during the midterm, they'll take back the house and maybe increase their majority in 2022, and set up a nice trifecta GOP government for President Crenshaw in 2024.

The senate has to be won now or everything is completely fucked. If you aren't donating to anyone do it now. That is the future we are in for if we don't.

Antrax · Jun 6, 2020

TheDestructiveSquirrel said:
Let's say Biden wins in a landslide, Dems increase their majority in congress but don't get the senate and covid is no longer an issue

Imagine the protests if McConnel didn't let the senate vote on the first black women on the supreme court

Why would he care about protests? Is he concerned about the ones happening right now? What pressure is there that would cause him to cave? He's not losing his seat.

TheHunter · Jun 7, 2020

thepotatoman said:
There isn't a chance in hell there'd be a protest over that. The type of people who do real protests aren't the type of people who are hugely concerned with protecting institutions and norms.

There may be a demonstration like the Womans March or March for Science, but McConnell has absolutely no incentive to care since he knows everyone in that demonstration never voted republican to begin with.

To be fair, he doesn't care about these protests either.

Poodlestrike · Jun 7, 2020

TheHunter said:
To be fair, he doesn't care about these protests either.

He had that statement more or less throwing the cop who murdered George Floyd under the bus, didn't he? I don't think he cares per se, but the scale and fervor of 'em clearly had some effect.

I don't think you would see the same kind of fire for what would ultimately be seen as a procedural issue. The protests we're seeing now are huge, and not easily replicable.

TheDestructiveSquirrel · Jun 7, 2020

Maybe people will be more willing to protest now, I dunno

Antrax · Jun 7, 2020

Poodlestrike said:
He had that statement more or less throwing the cop who murdered George Floyd under the bus, didn't he?

I'm sure he can make plenty of statements while not confirming Biden appointees too :P

SwordsmanofS · Jun 7, 2020

More polls? More polls! (these were taken after Trump made his bullshit speech and gassing photo op)

Poodlestrike · Jun 7, 2020

Antrax said:
I'm sure he can make plenty of statements while not confirming Biden appointees too :P

I meant more, like... McConnell saying that the cop should be punished for murdering a man goes against Republican orthodoxy in a way that makes me think that yes, these protests are affecting him. I don't think you'd get a comparable reaction from any demonstrations around him crippling the government (again) by not confirming nominees.

Human Resources · Jun 7, 2020

vatstep said:

like a nervous man furiously tinkering with his fantasy football lineup before a big game, screwing himself in the process

Luminish · Jun 7, 2020

TheHunter said:
To be fair, he doesn't care about these protests either.

Everyone should care about the clear warning of further disruptions, loss of institutional legitimacy, and potentially even violent uprisings if things continue on the current path. Remember all this takes place in the context of the original protestors burning down a police precinct building. You might not agree with those tactics by being in the protests but you're still delegitimentizing the state by putting focus on the police more than those protestors.

Peaceful protests have toppled full on dictators because of this dynamic. Only reason McConnell might not care is the democratic party mayors, governors, district attorneys, and sherrifs are generally in a much better position with better incentives to maybe do something for once.

Antrax · Jun 7, 2020

thepotatoman said:
Everyone should care about the clear warning of further disruptions, loss of institutional legitimacy, and potentially even violent uprisings if things continue on the current path. Remember all this takes place in the context of the original protestors burning down a police precinct building. You might not agree with those tactics by being in the protests but you're still delegitimentizing the state by putting focus on the police more than those protestors.

Peaceful protests have toppled full on dictators because of this dynamic. Only reason McConnell might not care is the democratic party mayors, governors, district attorneys, and sherrifs are generally in a much better position with better incentives to maybe do something for once.

McConnell doesn't care about any of this. The only thing that matters to him is holding his seat, and setting the GOP agenda. Since the former isn't at risk, that leaves the latter. Reform isn't part of the GOP agenda, so that rules the latter out too. Mitch has zero reason to cede power if he's still got 51 votes after November.

AniHawk · Jun 7, 2020

SwordsmanofS said:
More polls? More polls! (these were taken after Trump made his bullshit speech and gassing photo op)

man, if trump's national support eroded three percent across the board and biden's up five points over hillary, then this will be a bloodbath and we probably get montana as the 51st senate seat and maybe even two more if it flips georgia and iowa.

SquirrelSr · Jun 7, 2020

Poodlestrike said:
I meant more, like... McConnell saying that the cop should be punished for murdering a man goes against Republican orthodoxy in a way that makes me think that yes, these protests are affecting him. I don't think you'd get a comparable reaction from any demonstrations around him crippling the government (again) by not confirming nominees.

I like to think that the turtle is smart enough to at least keep up appearances. Trump's downward spiral is already putting the House in Democrat hands. I don't think he'd want to lose the Senate as well by siding with cops. That said, he's a snake and will likely take any opportunity to hold onto power.

GiantEnemyGoomba · Jun 7, 2020

SwordsmanofS said:
More polls? More polls! (these were taken after Trump made his bullshit speech and gassing photo op)

They have Trump +1 in Iowa too. It's a D pollster.

Titik · Jun 7, 2020

Biden up 12 points in MI.

53-41

Joe Biden has doubled his lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll says

Trump's sinking poll numbers correspond with negative ratings he has received for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.freep.com

Epic MRA has B+ rating on 538. 0.2 R lean.
May 30 - Jun 3

Piston · Jun 7, 2020

Titik said:
Biden up 12 points in MI.

53-41

Joe Biden has doubled his lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll says

Trump's sinking poll numbers correspond with negative ratings he has received for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.freep.com

Epic MRA has B+ rating on 538. 0.2 R lean.
May 30 - Jun 3

These are margins I can feel comfortable with. If Michigan is ~+10 right now, that would align pretty well with the +9 we got in Wisconsin and the double-digit leads we are seeing nationally in the last week too.

Just give me some good senate polling on Maine.

Deleted member 12224 · Jun 7, 2020

TheDestructiveSquirrel said:
Let's say Biden wins in a landslide, Dems increase their majority in congress but don't get the senate and covid is no longer an issue

Imagine the protests if McConnel didn't let the senate vote on the first black women on the supreme court

I just don't think it matters. "The American people elected a GOP Senate to serve as a check on the Democratic President, and we reject the far left nominees on behalf of the American people." Yadda yadda. The superficial justification is right there.

The power is the Majority Leader's alone, and the only check is getting replaced in that role. That's it. That's the lesson of Obama judge nominations and then Garland. There's nothing directly that can be done if the Majority Leader says fuck off I'm not voting on your people. Nothing.

It's not some brilliant chess move. Just requires stubbornness, brazenness, and winner take all nihilism.

Erpy · Jun 7, 2020

MetalMagus said:
While I have not doubts that McConnell is already formulating plans on how a Republican Senate can sabotage Biden so he's only a "one term president" - he NEEDS that sixth Supreme Court seat to flip conservative. Even he can't block a nomination from Biden in his first year, so RBG's seat would be safe after she retires on Jan 1st. Breyer might follow soon after, keeping his seat a lock.

From there I've no doubts Thomas will stay on as long as possible (since by all appearances he's already enjoying his retirement) - but like with Scalia, sometimes you don't to choose when you go.

McConnell needs Trump to win, otherwise his window is probably closed for good.

I don't think he really needs it to flip conservative that badly. Conservatives already have a majority on the SCOTUS so for the time being they'll get more victories than losses out of it and unlike Scalia's seat, RBG and Breyer being replaced won't alter the balance. Assuming they're going to go out of their way to replace as many older judges as possible before the election, they can probably afford to wait things out for a little bit since it'll mainly be liberal judges a Democratic senate would be replacing.

In the long term, the senate trends Republican meaning that even if Dems flip it this November, it'll only be a matter of time before the GOP gets it back.

And McConnell would totally block any Biden nominees if he felt like it. Remember, when Hillary was assumed to have it in the bag, Republicans were already making statements they wouldn't allow her to fill any judicial positions and would just block Scalia's replacement for 4 years. And that wasn't just McConnell, but even McCain saying that.

i like big butts · Jun 7, 2020

The polling seems reasonable enough.

If there's one benefit of the coronavirus pandemic and the inability to resolve the police brutality/protests, it is telling people that who you vote for is extremely important. I think everyone expected Trump to be bad but I don't think a whole lot of people could have imagined him to be just this bad. There was sort of an expectation that he would sit around doing nothing while everyone else handled everything, even a year into his presidency this still seemed to be the case.

Now, he's actively tampering with the coronavirus and police protests situation and deteriorating the situation further because his ego can't handle it. If the guy just played golf and let everyone else figure it out, he'd probably be doing pretty well against Biden all things considered. But he can't stop kicking himself in the balls and is doubling down on appealing to the_donald out of all people.

Of course the real question is whether he's going to leave peacefully if he loses the election. Its not really a good situation for him, he is practically persona non grata all around the world and the value of his name is basically worthless. The only thing he can hope for is Trump TV to take off but considering his inability to get any venture to work, I'm not sure if that's going to last against Fox News and the other conservative news networks already existing.

Ac30 · Jun 7, 2020

i like big butts said:
If there's one benefit of the coronavirus pandemic and the inability to resolve the police brutality/protests, it is telling people that who you vote for is extremely important. I think everyone expected Trump to be bad but I don't think a whole lot of people could have imagined him to be just this bad.

I knew people that thought it was all for show and he would drop the act when he got elected. Fucking morons, the lot of them.

i like big butts · Jun 7, 2020

Ac30 said:
I knew people that thought it was all for show and he would drop the act when he got elected. Fucking morons, the lot of them.

I think there was a rough expectation that he would be a pretty ordinary Republican president, except with a Twitter account. Don't misread this, Republicans are trash who have no problems with fascism, so that's a hugely negative thing, but I think most people did assume he would be a rather hands off and ineffectual President. I sort of bought into this thinking, after all he showed close to zero interest in the mechanics involved to repeal and replace Obamacare and left Paul Ryan to handle the wolves. He does nothing but play golf, watch Fox and Friends and do pointless PR stunts like the meeting with North Korea while Republicans do the work stacking the courts, eroding protections and blocking sensible legislation.

But this whole coronavirus and police brutality protests are a whole different ballpark. The guy is not only showing acute interest in the handling of both of these things, he's in a way micromanaging and inserting himself into all aspects of these things. I would consider myself to be decently informed on American politics, despite being a foreigner, but I would not have expected him to be this involved. I totally expected him to let the Republicans run the show and take credit for everything, like he normally does. Most conservatives around the world, even guys in the US like DeWine, have just left the experts to handle the crisis because its only going to be good for your re-election chances.

jiggle · Jun 7, 2020

Titik said:
Biden up 12 points in MI.

53-41

Joe Biden has doubled his lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll says

Trump's sinking poll numbers correspond with negative ratings he has received for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.freep.com

Epic MRA has B+ rating on 538. 0.2 R lean.
May 30 - Jun 3

Was not expecting Bernie porn when I clicked on that

Titik · Jun 7, 2020

i like big butts and bernie porn in the same page

cameron · Jun 7, 2020

Titik said:
Biden up 12 points in MI.

53-41

Joe Biden has doubled his lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll says

Trump's sinking poll numbers correspond with negative ratings he has received for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.freep.com

Epic MRA has B+ rating on 538. 0.2 R lean.
May 30 - Jun 3

Bit more:

In other poll findings:

63% say the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 50% in January.

If the election was held today, 51% would vote to replace Trump, up from 44% in January.

Independent voters, who often decide Michigan elections, are backing Biden over Trump, 63-23.

U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat from Bloomfield Township, leads Republican challenger John James of Farmington Hills, 51-36, with 13% undecided or refusing to say.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer got a job performance rating of 55% positive and 43% negative, up from 43-50 in January. And 60% gave her good marks for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Of those surveyed, 43% identified as Democrats and 38% as Republicans.

TheHunter · Jun 7, 2020

We are winning.

+7 Biden.

+11 Dems GCB.

YEAH BABY!

shadow_shogun · Jun 7, 2020

@mkraju
"I'll be voting for him," Colin Powell says of Biden to @jaketapper on @CNNSotu

9:11 AM - Jun 7, 2020

cameron · Jun 7, 2020

Kelly O'Donnell @KellyO

Senior aide to George W. Bush responds to report that former president is among group of prominent Rs who will not support Trump. "This is completely made up. President Bush is retired from presidential politics and hasn't indicated how he will vote."

9:22 AM - Jun 7, 2020

Titik · Jun 7, 2020

cameron said:
Kelly O'Donnell @KellyO

Senior aide to George W. Bush responds to report that former president is among group of prominent Rs who will not support Trump. "This is completely made up. President Bush is retired from presidential politics and hasn't indicated how he will vote."

9:22 AM - Jun 7, 2020

Put up or shut the fuck up .

Zache · Jun 7, 2020

cameron said:
Kelly O'Donnell @KellyO

Senior aide to George W. Bush responds to report that former president is among group of prominent Rs who will not support Trump. "This is completely made up. President Bush is retired from presidential politics and hasn't indicated how he will vote."

9:22 AM - Jun 7, 2020

McCain was probably the only former presidential nominee who would have openly endorsed Biden. No one in his family seems to have any interest in politics, mutual hatred with Trump, his home state is running away from Trump, and he had a personal friendship with Biden. Bush has to worry about his family's future in politics and Romney has to worry about his own.

cameron · Jun 7, 2020

US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.

One Winged Slayer

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The Wise Ones

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Tens across the board!

Smooth vs. Crunchy

Smooth vs. Crunchy

Bold Bur3n Wrangler

Smooth vs. Crunchy

Smooth vs. Crunchy

No Fear, Only Math

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Unshakable Resolve