Maybe. MA state legislature could still change up the rules.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I'm late to this.
But I got to say, when I see this, I see Klob has just a good chance as Warren to be picked as Biden's VP. And Warren was my horse in the race, but she still makes me nervous electorally.
While Klob doesn't excite young people at all, she also doesn't make Biden lose support among the demographic that votes the most and consistently, unlike young people. She doesn't make him loose any votes with minorities either.
So, I don't know. I guess that also means Harris would be a good choice because she does the same thing overall for Biden as Klob does, but adds some extra history-making to the ticket, and that might be a stronger catalyst for better numbers later on. Also, Warren's age will be a factor four years from now, like a lot of people have already mentioned.
The candidates with the lower name recognition also should not be discounted. This poll isn't that good for the Demmings and Lujan Grishams, bu those numbers are just lack of name recognition. They should poll descriptions of the running mates and see how " Latina-ish governor from New Mexico" and "AA congresswoman from Florida" poll, not their names.
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It's a prepared statement, but it's a good delivery. I do feel like the message is a little muted because the institutions that would normally intervene here and provide justice feel--right now-hopelessly lost.
Picking Klob would basically neuter the little enthusiasm I have left. I know in the grand scheme of things that doesn't matter at all but christ she's so bad. Also wouldn't that give Republicans a chance to take her Senate seat?
The same chance as MA, more or less not really. There's at least one very good candidate that could step in as well if she were selected that MIN would be very lucky to have. Either way, it's not going to be Klob. It's Kamala, it's been Kamala, it's gonna stay Kamala unless there's some devastating skeletons unearthed.
Biden has to be cautious because the support he's getting from older voters is unusual for a dem and a whole lot of the names currently floating around for VP could potentially hurt him with them.
he needs to strike the right balance of "liked enough by the young's and not disliked so bad with the olds", if that's possible, that is
Klobb would be going all in with the olds but he needs to do better.
... Whitmer is probably fine
he needs to strike the right balance of "liked enough by the young's and not disliked so bad with the olds", if that's possible, that is
Klobb would be going all in with the olds but he needs to do better.
... Whitmer is probably fine
Pretty much. In addition to ticking all the demographic boxes except geography (editor's note: I'm also a Californian) and being pretty strong on policy and experience, my impression is that Kamala just doesn't scare boomers nearly as much as Liz does. I would be pretty surprised if she's not the choice.
Can confirm in talking to my boomer parents from NJ this weekend that they're all for Harris for VP and would be surprised if it wasn't her. They largely think that Warren should stay in the Senate where she can drive legislation.
As Chief Prosecutor, Klobuchar Declined Charges Against Cop that Killed George Floyd
While serving as Minnesota's chief prosecutor, Amy Klobuchar declined to bring charges against the cop that killed George Floyd.
www.mintpressnews.com
It's Warren or bust. Though I like Kamela too. I'm selfish and I want them both to stay in the senate unopposed. Mitch McConell has shown me how important the Senate really is.
As I recall only few states had results outside the margin of error. National polls were within the margin of error. Most swing states (though not all) were within the margin of error. And some of those states outside the margin of error had done little polling after the Comey letter.
It was far from the miss people paint it as.
It was far from the miss people paint it as.
I love Amy but there was no way that something from the George Floyd tragedy didn't make it way back to her time as Hennepin County DA.
One thing about Harris is that people liked her, she was just kind of bad at running a campaign and got too tied up with the irrelevant online nonsense and digging out of Bernie's Medicare 4 All trap.
One thing about Harris is that people liked her, she was just kind of bad at running a campaign and got too tied up with the irrelevant online nonsense and digging out of Bernie's Medicare 4 All trap.
Right now? You'd rather have Biden's polling numbers than Trump's. But it is a very long way to go. Biden cannot be complacent, but current polling isn't something that he's likely to be scared about.
Today, Biden is polling well ahead of where Hillary was at this time in 2016. However, Biden's lead is not insurmountable by any means. Off the top of my head, national polls put Biden up by about 5-7 points on average.
The important thing to keep in mind though is that the polls in swing-states are FAR more important than national polls. In these polls Biden still leads, but his lead is much more narrow, often on the fringe of the MOE.
This is what scares me. We can't get comfortable. No matter what.
I don't think Dems are in any danger of becoming complacent. There's a collective trauma from 2016 that no one has forgotten.
All the polling (I know, I know) on that question show registered democrats are far from complacent.
There are some really odd state polls lately
More of these plz
As Chief Prosecutor, Klobuchar Declined Charges Against Cop that Killed George Floyd
While serving as Minnesota's chief prosecutor, Amy Klobuchar declined to bring charges against the cop that killed George Floyd.
Bye Klobuchar.
Hopefully, this makes prosecutors more likely to charge police. If only for their future political career.
Plus, 2012 state polls were off in the opposite direction (i.e. in favor of Romney), but nobody ever brings that up.
It's almost like expecting the same type of error as last time is a dumb idea because it's wildly inconsistent from cycle to cycle!
Klob is shit and the least she could have done was give a good statement but she couldnt even do that. If there is someone who can win that seat she should just go.
I didn't want Amy as the VP...but isn't she actually good at being a Senator? Not sure how beneficial opening the door for the possibility of losing her seat.
It's closer to 7-11 points and the GCB is also still well in the Dem's favor. Biden is in a stronger spot and Trump is in a weaker spot than just about any point compared to 2016 except maybe a brief moment in time either right before or after the DNC from what I recall.
Things can change etc. but the margin is much better if comparing.
Also my anecdotal evidence is also that white boomers oddly love Kamala. I'm not sure why but she doesn't freak out richer older men as much as most other candidates, and especially Liz.
Because she was a cop? Dunno
But yeah for some reason even some wealthy liberal boomers I know are fucking terrified of Liz, which honestly just makes me want her in more
I've only seen one or two polls that put Biden up by double digits. So throw them on the pile, but I'm not putting a lot of stock into them right now. If the trend continues though, then yeah we can begin to grow the average national polling lead.
That doesn't change the fact that we need to be focused on the swing states and their polling.
Prosecutors are generally popular with voters. She has name recognition as a pretty normal Democrat. White boomers who aren't voting Trump want someone who will appeal to minorities and get them to show up so they vote against the Big Orange Bad.
I thought Amy's stock had been declining for a couple of weeks now, too many worrisome turnout scenarios kept coming up. I don't put any credence in what the too loud online activists wanted or said that voters wanted-but the young people problem (also expressed in minority numbers) kept coming up over and over in polls and it was more than just because Biden beating Bernie. It's not something you solve via changes in policy. fixing it requires actual representation.
I wonder what the tipping point for riots is...say Biden getting 10% in the popular vote and still losing the electoral college?
i can't see how he gets 10% nationally and loses wisconsin, pennsylvania, and michigan.
Literally never want to hear from Klobuchar again if it's true she let that guy off the hook after he previously killed
A 10 point win would make losing the electoral college very unlikely, but I think we did have some scenarios earlier in the primary that showed that Dems could win the popular vote by ~6million votes and still lose the EC. But even that is very unlikely.
I posted this earlier, but apparently the election of 1876 was stupid close and controversial. Turnout that year was almost 82% (fucking incredible) and Hayes defeated Tilden, despite losing the popular vote by 3 points. To add further insult to injury, Hayes won the EC by a single (1) freaking electoral vote. Tilden received 50.9% of the vote to Hayes' 47.9%, and lost by a single vote. To put that into perspective, using 2016 turnout figures, that would be like Biden getting 5 million more votes than Trump, but losing the EC because one of Maine's district's voted for Trump while the State and the second district voted for Biden.
THIS is a catastrophic scenario for the republic.
1876 United States presidential election - Wikipedia
If we're going down the rabbit hole, a tie in the EC would be catastrophic as well. The nation's psyche is too fragile to handle that right now.
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Trust nothing until it is officially released, and then expect revisions. These people are fucking morons and they get nothing right because they don't know what the fuck they're doing. They're going to be drafting the thing all night, and then making changes after it's released.
User Banned (1 week): drive-by trolling, history of similar
lol no Lib is gonna riot for that ghoul
in a lot of places there might not be a tipping point for riots. If Trump wins, LA isn't really gonna be mad at itself. NYC isn't really gonna be mad at itself. Maybe DC if there are R politicians in town that night? Maybe violence would emerge in protests near swing-state R governor or senator offices? The rural-urban divide and "own the libs" as a core value kinda neuters civil unrest- the ppl voting for fascists aren't in high-density population centers, and the news channels propping up fascists might coach their viewership to take pleasure in liberal cities eating themselves.
The stuff and footage going on from Minneapolis tonight has some really predictable political outcomes for US politics in the short term cycle. Republicans will decry breakdown of law and order , Democrats have to walk a narrower path because part of their base will not be at all OK with a 'what happened by the police was terrible, but violence is also terrible' moderate response.
I don't know if it necessarily has a partisan response per se, but the GOP response is fully predictable with lower political cost while the Democratic one because of the coalitions involves is also predictable, but at far higher political cost.
I don't know if it necessarily has a partisan response per se, but the GOP response is fully predictable with lower political cost while the Democratic one because of the coalitions involves is also predictable, but at far higher political cost.
For the country, not the man. jfc any chance to get a shot in...
I look at polls as an indicator of the plasticity of the race at any given time. Of course many things can change the direction of the race but the polling gives us that baseline. You also need to factor in time. If there is time left then you have room to improve your standings.
However the closer we get to election day, the less time you have to correct anything and you better hope that a black swan is big enough or close enough to election day to change the calculus. That's essentially what happened to Hillary with that Comey letter. Before that, she had a lead. It was tenous but it was a lead nonetheless. The polls showed movement going into election day. I saw it too but I had hoped that it wasn't enough to change to push Trump to the edge.
Biden is popular and exciting to people, believe or not. The only place that I don't see any excitement for him is here. He is seen as a colorful character by most voters.
However the closer we get to election day, the less time you have to correct anything and you better hope that a black swan is big enough or close enough to election day to change the calculus. That's essentially what happened to Hillary with that Comey letter. Before that, she had a lead. It was tenous but it was a lead nonetheless. The polls showed movement going into election day. I saw it too but I had hoped that it wasn't enough to change to push Trump to the edge.
Biden is popular and exciting to people, believe or not. The only place that I don't see any excitement for him is here. He is seen as a colorful character by most voters.
Looking beyond the bait here, there's zero chance 10% pop vote advantage leads to an electoral college win for the opposite person, regardless of who it is.
"Ghoul"? Jfc
anyways it's not Klobberchar so we can all rest easy
things change so fast. remember when everyone was singing the praises of klob as a potential vp pick. I take back what I said, she's worse than kaine
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