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Kid Heart

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,087
Nikki Fried was on 11th Hour calling on DeSantis to use his authority to do a stay at home order, it's amazing he still hasn't done that yet

I'm praying Florida's hot and humid weather helps slow the virus, because otherwise I don't see how they wont wind up being Italy 2.0. Desantis wants to put this off as long as he can, and by the time he finally buckles and does the shelter in place it will be too late.
 

Rag

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,874
Nikki Fried was on 11th Hour calling on DeSantis to use his authority to do a stay at home order, it's amazing he still hasn't done that yet
It's wild to me that my backwards ass state of Idaho beat Florida to the punch. Earlier this week we finally made it harder for old men to coerce child brides to marry them by raising the marriage age to 16, and only if your spouse is three years older or less.
 

DinosaurusRex

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,953
There are 26 days until the Senate returns. Assuming # of cases continues to double every 3 days (it's actually a little worse now), that's 8-9 doubling times, so about 300x. Since there are 70,000 cases now and 1,000 deaths, we could be looking at 21,000,000 cases and 300,000 dead by the time the Senate returns.

Let's hope to God we flatten the curve.
Jesus Christ.
Lets hope we are doing enough
 

DanGo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
The Blue states (mostly are).

Red states...lol. We're gonna end up with a half a million dead at least with the lack of care being shown by a lot of folk up to this point (desantis).
Call me cynical, but red states will obfuscate the data by not testing and recording nonspecific causes of death.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Nikki Fried should run for higher office in 2022, she pulled off what Nelson and Gillum couldn't.

Less of a dicey proposition than, for example, trying to flip the Senate seats in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania which are likely to pendulum swing hard against us if Democrats control the presidency. Florida on the other hand will probably stubbornly remain within a point for at least one of its top tier races, as it has in every midterm since 2010.

(Not that we shouldn't run decent candidates in those states too, obviously)

Rubio's Senate seat and DeSantis' gubernatorial seat are both up that year.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,817
Morgan Stanley: -10% GDP growth in Q1, -25% Q2. Unemployment peaks at 8.5%.



Feels optimistic because we are going to be exceptional in how badly we manage stabilizing things.
 

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,194
Call me cynical, but red states will obfuscate the data by not testing and recording nonspecific causes of death.
It seems that everybody is doing this to one extent or another. Sometimes the limitations are real (even in places where we want to test, we still don't have sufficient capacity), but others are certainly self-imposed.

The true cost of this pandemic won't be known for years.

They cannot hide something liek this in this day and age they can try but people going to start asking questions.
Sure, you can. If you don't test somebody, you don't know they're positive, and their death doesn't have to be attributed to the virus. I highly suspect some countries with absurdly low death rates are already fudging the data to some degree.

You can't hide a death in this day and age, but you can certainly fail to determine the cause.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Morgan Stanley: -10% GDP growth in Q1, -25% Q2. Unemployment peaks at 8.5%.



Feels optimistic because we are going to be exceptional in how badly we manage stabilizing things.

I'd be shocked, to say the least.

Not that I'm an economist but I feel like the UE rate is about to spike drastically. 8.5% might be where things settle once the worst is over.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,127
I'd be shocked, to say the least.

Not that I'm an economist but I feel like the UE rate is about to spike drastically. 8.5% might be where things settle once the worst is over.
Depends if they expect restaurants just to only deal with a small business loan. I can only imagine the amount of ethnic restaurants that don't have the resources or U.S. SBA knowledge to apply for help too.
 

aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,458
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
-25% in Q2?!? Holy freaking crap. Yeah there's no quick coming back from that no matter how much money you try to throw into the system. 8.5% unemployment would be a miracle peak in that setting.
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,896
Britain
Jesus Christ.
Lets hope we are doing enough

Hopefully Sheepinator is right that it won't increase at the same rate for 4 weeks, simply because governors will lock down their states when they reach a certain number of cases, say 1 to 2 thousand. However, there is still a 2 week lag time before seeing any improvement, so that state could see a 30x increase in cases by then. By the time the Senate returns in 4 weeks, an only 30x increase seems wildly optimistic to me. I'm not sophisticated enough to model the other factors, like overwhelmed ICUs, and this is getting off-topic anyway. Maybe a miracle will occur.
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,896
Britain
Independent verification done by the network themselves, because no network is going to risk being wrong on it.

Verification and multiple accusations. You can bet if something is there, reputable journalists will absolutely pursue it. Such reputable journalists do not include Breitbart, Krystal Ball, or soundcloud.com.
 

kess

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,020
I'd be shocked, to say the least.

Not that I'm an economist but I feel like the UE rate is about to spike drastically. 8.5% might be where things settle once the worst is over.

The current unemployment rate in the threes accounts to something like 6 million people. The analyst forecast seems to be based on the initial shock, barring any knock-on effects.

I don't think this summer is going to be the Excellent Party Time people think it's going to be because we're going to be feeling the aftershocks for a while.
 
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Chaos Legion

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,911
Verification and multiple accusations. You can bet if something is there, reputable journalists will absolutely pursue it. Such reputable journalists do not include Breitbart, Krystal Ball, or soundcloud.com.
I wonder if that's her maiden name or her married name. Because either her parents had a good laugh, or she lucked into a great last name.
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
Unemployment only peaks at 8.5? I highly doubt that.... wasn't it higher that that during the great recession? Unless the bill they are going to do allows them not to count the unemployment numbers during this next two months.
 

Surfinn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,590
USA
Independent verification done by the network themselves, because no network is going to risk being wrong on it.
I'm not really sure what's left to verify. She's been an accuser for months now and is only expanding on an accusation that she made before. Either way, hopefully major news sources start running it.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
I'm not really sure what's left to verify. She's been an accuser for months now and is only expanding on an accusation that she made before. Either way, hopefully major news sources start running it.
The same process we went through with Ford.

We did the right thing with Senator Comedian. We should do the right thing here.
 

DanGo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
It seems that everybody is doing this to one extent or another. Sometimes the limitations are real (even in places where we want to test, we still don't have sufficient capacity), but others are certainly self-imposed.

The true cost of this pandemic won't be known for years.

Sure, you can. If you don't test somebody, you don't know they're positive, and their death doesn't have to be attributed to the virus. I highly suspect some countries with absurdly low death rates are already fudging the data to some degree.

You can't hide a death in this day and age, but you can certainly fail to determine the cause.
Yeah, I just totally see some conservative governors playing games to reduce and obfuscate the numbers for as long as possible to avoid political repercussions. Make researchers and reporters have to dig long enough and hope you're beyond political accountability when the shit hits the fan, or maybe the public loses interest or simply assume that the ProPublic deep-dive doesn't penetrate public consciousness. Whatever it takes to keep the appearance of good health and economic news in the short term.
 

Caz

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,055
Canada


Look Mitchie, I know Fire Emblem's 30th anniversary is coming up and you're all excited and getting prepared for it but this seems like a bad idea.
But seriously, Mitch McConnell is a ghoul whose neglect in regards to this pandemic is going to kill people.
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,896
Britain
I think economists don't like to be wrong, even more so than pollsters, and so are extremely subject to herding and groupthink. They also seem to be really optimistic, no one actually wants negative GDP for the rest of the year or 30% unemployment, so it won't happen.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
The process where her accusations were buried because "no evidence"?
Where we investigate and try to back it up as best we can.

Time and time again these types of people have proven it's never just once. If Biden is a sexual predator we'll find out soon enough.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
13,127

twitter.com

LaT ⚖💖💜💙 on Twitter

“YOU CANNOT GET UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IF YOU VOLUNTARILY QUIT YOUR JOB!! The very fact that Graham & Co. are framing the argument to suggest one COULD do so is how you know - aside from them being conservatives - the argument IS BEING MADE IN BAD FAITH. https://t.co/w3ZwEa9BqH”
 

Surfinn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,590
USA
Where we investigate and try to back it up as best we can.

Time and time again these types of people have proven it's never just once. If Biden is a sexual predator we'll find out soon enough.
We'll find out if there's any real difference between dems and republicans in this regard. Or if silencing, shaming and blaming victims is bipartisan at this level.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
Yeah, but he wasn't running for fucking president. And there have since been a lot of people, including Franken, who have regretted his resigning.
That is ultimately up to the voters to decide right or wrong.

Virginia's governors mansion woes come to mind. Here we are a year later and they're all but forgotten.
 

Selbran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,567
User Banned (1 Month): Dismissing allegations of sexual assault.
We'll find out if there's any real difference between dems and republicans in this regard. Or if silencing, shaming and blaming victims is bipartisan at this level.
Probably help if we just waited and let this play out however it does. It seriously seems like a ton of people have made their minds up already and I can't help but think a ton of it relates to people hating Joe Biden's guts vs supporting a rape victim.

Shows even more when people say they're abandoning the Democratic Party or not voting if these allegations go nowhere or they don't get the result they're looking towards. Heaven forbid we wait until mainstream journalists do their sourcing and see what they found.
 

Surfinn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,590
USA
That is ultimately up to the voters to decide right or wrong.

Virginia's governors mansion woes come to mind. Here we are a year later and they're all but forgotten.
Well yeah that's my point. Time to see if dem voters have a moral backbone in regards to voting for a rapist.
Probably help if we just waited and let this play out however it does. It seriously seems like a ton of people have made their minds up already and I can't help but think a ton of it relates to people hating Joe Biden's guts vs supporting a rape victim.

Shows even more when people say they're abandoning the Democratic Party or not voting if these allegations go nowhere or they don't get the result they're looking towards. Heaven forbid we wait until mainstream journalists do their sourcing and see what they found.
As someone who was completely prepared to vote for Biden but has dumped him based on this allegation of rape, nah, this ain't it. And as a victim of sexual assault I don't fucking appreciate the sentiment here. I believe her and the other women who have accused him of inappropriate conduct.

I will never vote for a rapist.
 

Abstrusity

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,656


Look Mitchie, I know Fire Emblem's 30th anniversary is coming up and you're all excited and getting prepared for it but this seems like a bad idea.
But seriously, Mitch McConnell is a ghoul whose neglect in regards to this pandemic is going to kill people.

Thracia 776 finally getting the recognition it deserves with *checks notes*

a fire emblem heroes banner and no localization. :(
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,817
Surgeon General should NOT be saying stuff like that. It might be true that new infections might be leveling off (though that just means the rate of change is the same, not that the number of new infections is actually lower), there are literally weeks of people who aren't sick now getting sick, and weeks past that people who are sick needing hospitalization.

We'll beat this! But talk straight to people and give them truth they can believe in.
 

Selbran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,567
Well yeah that's my point. Time to see if dem voters have a moral backbone in regards to voting for a rapist.

As someone who was completely prepared to vote for Biden but has dumped him based on this allegation of rape, nah, this ain't it. And as a victim of sexual assault I don't fucking appreciate the sentiment here.
There's literally nothing controversial about saying let's wait more than 8 hours before we crucify somebody over allegations they haven't even gotten the chance to respond too.
 

KHarvey16

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,193
I hate to sound like I'm giving them any credit at all, and ultimately I think the argument is about a risk that's too small to mean much in the face of what's going on, but the expanded eligibility for unemployment in this bill does actually allow you to collect if you quit because of COVID-19. It's a rather vague clause:

...is otherwise able to work and available for work within the meaning of applicable State law, except the individual is unemployed, partially un-employed, or unable or unavailable to work because—

...

(ii) the individual has to quit his or her job as a direct result of COVID–19;

Of course if you lie and they prove it you're fucked on top of having to pay it all back.
 

Surfinn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,590
USA
There's literally nothing controversial about saying let's wait more than 8 hours before we crucify somebody over allegations they haven't even gotten the chance to respond too.
She's not some newcomer, she's someone who has levied allegations months prior. She's now expanding upon those allegations in terms of being raped. It's her word against his.

In her words, this is why people don't come forward. Because they're dehumanized and/or not believed and others demand evidence or proof.

There are numerous other women who have accused Biden of sexual misconduct/inappropriate touching. This is not even close to being the first accusation.

Believe women
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,127
I hate to sound like I'm giving them any credit at all, and ultimately I think the argument is about a risk that's too small to mean much in the face of what's going on, but the expanded eligibility for unemployment in this bill does actually allow you to collect if you quit because of COVID-19. It's a rather vague clause:



Of course if you lie and they prove it you're fucked on top of having to pay it all back.
We want people to not have to work! There's a pandemic outside.
 

Avinash117

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,602
There are 26 days until the Senate returns. Assuming # of cases continues to double every 3 days (it's actually a little worse now), that's 8-9 doubling times, so about 300x. Since there are 70,000 cases now and 1,000 deaths, we could be looking at 21,000,000 cases and 300,000 dead by the time the Senate returns.

Let's hope to God we flatten the curve.

There is no way that wouldn't be a lockdown before that point. Economy be damned Trump and the GOP will be likely be dead politically if it every gets to that point. No matter how good the economy is that amount dead and sick in such a short time will destroy the economy.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
There is no way that wouldn't be a lockdown before that point. Economy be damned Trump and the GOP will be likely be dead politically if it every gets to that point. No matter how good the economy is that amount dead and sick in such a short time will destroy the economy.
There's a very real chance of that happening.
 
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