Shame they won't be around for the tail end of it. They've handled it so well so far.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT4| Disaster Voltron
- Thread starter Ogodei
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Shame they won't be around for the tail end of it. They've handled it so well so far.
You know he's going to try even if there's no constitutional basis for it
I mean if he orders a quarantine and the election is the same day. That is hella voter suppression
And before anyone freaks out -- this doesn't mean businesses shuttered + people quarantined indoors for 18 months. This will be about as long as it takes to get a vaccine ready for public use, so it'll be super important to get out ahead of future virus outbreaks between now and then. No guarantee that this won't return in the fall or winter, on top of needing to work the virus out over the summer. A lot will depend on how quickly we can ramp up ICU resources for hospitals, get treatments disseminated to doctors and hospitals to use, get more aggressive/aggressive at all with testing, etc.
Cash is the only thing that speaks to a lot apolitical non voters. They still wont vote though. Much like the Yang gang. lmao.
The free money thing isn't even in the news anymore today, it's already been wiped out by new stuff and more COVID discussion. Not to mention the dates being flung around are also finally making it into the news. April is was too fucking late.
People are going to be expecting checks for 3+ weeks.
He is a historically unpopular president and his administration is handling this pandemic amazingly poorly, not to mention that this mess can and should highlight the catastrophic failures of Republican governance and world view.
And yeah, I'm not sure Democrats had played everything perfectly politically so far, but this really shouldn't be an advantage for a sitting president, let alone a right wing one.
no lies detected, but the people who will vote for him dont care about that
Who would be willing to defend that in the middle of a potential depression?
Indiana voted for a black dude called Hussein in '08.
It's all fun and games until shit really hit the fan.
I hope against hope that it wouldn't in America, but sadly, I am not terribly optimistic.
Oh, they were already off way before that.
Indiana flipping blue in 2008 was like "wha?"
Indiana's probably too far gone by now, but that's about where Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin are, I'd imagine.
Virus in the World
Echoing one of the most iconic political ads of all time, the Lincoln Project today released a new spot that poses the same kind of compelling question that ...
www.youtube.com
If Trump went around and coughed into everyone's faces throughout America to pesonally spread Coronavirus, some of these folks would somehow be convinced that it would mean Trump's re-election.
Don't let your emotions overcome your reason, people. That's why people can't get basic items on the shelves of their local grocery stores.
Feels like there's jut a big issue where people under ~30 straight up don't remember the 05-08 stretch and have no conception of what a crisis like this does to a sitting President electorally.
I agree but, in their defense, why would they?
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If you need a chuckle
Can Bret just fuck off from the Times now?
Yep. I remember the late summer and early autumn of 2008 when the shit really started to hit the fan, and my feelings on Obama's election went from cautious optimism to locked-in certainty once McCain was on camera talking about economic fundamentals and giant investment banks were collapsing. This is not too dissimilar a situation.
JP Morgan forecasts -14% in Q2.
...But +8% in Q3, which I remain skeptical about.
But -18% in the first two quarters. That's a recession, folks.
Weirdly comforting to pop in here and see worrying about whether this is Good News For Trump hahaha
The Mohegan Tribe in CT has told the governor that their hotel could be used to house future patients, should the need arise.
No such word yet from the Trump Organization if their own hotels could be used.
No such word yet from the Trump Organization if their own hotels could be used.
Steadman™ @AsteadWesley
NEW: Progressive policies continue to poll well, but Bernie Sanders, like Warren before him, is losing to Joe Biden. It has forced a reckoning among a left wing that was once riding high. To gain power, and not moral victories, may require a different tact
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/us/politics/bernie-sanders-progressives-elizabeth-warren.html …
AOC tells me the left must learn "political lessons" from 2020:
"There's so much emphasis on making outreach as conflict-based as possible...and sometimes I even feel miscast and understood," she said. "And conflict is one tool but not the only tool."https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/us/politics/bernie-sanders-progressives-elizabeth-warren.html …
2:45 PM - Mar 18, 2020
NEW: Progressive policies continue to poll well, but Bernie Sanders, like Warren before him, is losing to Joe Biden. It has forced a reckoning among a left wing that was once riding high. To gain power, and not moral victories, may require a different tact
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/us/politics/bernie-sanders-progressives-elizabeth-warren.html …
AOC tells me the left must learn "political lessons" from 2020:
"There's so much emphasis on making outreach as conflict-based as possible...and sometimes I even feel miscast and understood," she said. "And conflict is one tool but not the only tool."https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/us/politics/bernie-sanders-progressives-elizabeth-warren.html …
2:45 PM - Mar 18, 2020
Progressive Ideas Remain Popular. Progressive Presidential Candidates Are Losing. Why? (Published 2020)
In state after state, voters say they support liberal policies like single-payer health care, canceling student debt and the Green New Deal. But many are voting for Joe Biden, who has proposed largely moderate ideas.
This was supposed to be the presidential primary race in which the progressive wing of the Democratic Party put it all together. The left was coming for power, not only moral victories. One popular podcast promised that the party's moderates would soon "bend the knee," as working Americans flocked to a left-wing presidential agenda.
But after a disastrous month of electoral drubbings that continued with Tuesday's primaries in Arizona, Florida and Illinois, it has become clear that the presidential promises of political revolution and big structural change will once again have to wait.
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is not just beating liberal rivals, all but vanquishing Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and outlasting Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. His candidacy has poked significant holes in the political strategy of their wing of political thought.
Their big investments in organizing could not overcome his name recognition. They could not reshape the primary electorate, while Mr. Biden has surged among more moderate voters in Democratic suburbs. They could not cut into his advantage with black voters. And they could not overcome his electability argument — that he is the best candidate to defeat President Trump — as evidenced by the fact that Mr. Biden bested Mr. Sanders with many liberal voters in Florida on Tuesday.
Mr. Biden is also succeeding even as progressive policies such as single-payer health care, robust action on climate change and student debt cancellation continue to poll high among Democratic voters, drawing majority support in some states.
This disconnect, in which policies are popular but the candidates who advocate them are losing, has frustrated progressive groups. They privately split blame among themselves, the candidates they backed and a Democratic electorate that has prioritized fear of losing to President Trump above all other concerns.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, a leading progressive and a top surrogate for Mr. Sanders, said in an interview that her wing of the party needed to learn "political lessons" from this race.
Asked for examples, she said that reaching suburban women and older black voters, groups progressive presidential candidates have struggled to win over, may require different political tactics.
"There's so much emphasis on making outreach as conflict-based as possible," Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said. "And sometimes I even feel miscast and understood. Because it's about what tools you use, and conflict is one tool but not the only tool."
She said candidates did not have to choose between class-first politics and addressing racial inequities, but that they must articulate the interplay between them.
"Intersectionality isn't about virtue-signaling or wokeness, it's about how we build a majority in progressive Democratic politics," she added. "If folks have bad racial justice frames, or gender justice frames, or identity frames, you won't go anywhere in expanding the party."
Mr. Biden has succeeded even in states where voters have voiced support for progressive proposals. As Mr. Biden triumphed in Florida on Tuesday night, more than 70 percent of the state's voters interviewed by AP VoteCast, a survey of the American electorate, said they favored replacing private health insurance with a "Medicare for all"-type system, the single-payer health care plan that has been the signature issue of Mr. Sanders's campaign.
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Nah this current incident is icing on the cake. People are being asked to quarantine, not work, and had to spend their savings on supplies while the economy crashes. Forget the Trump set the suburban voter is pissed and scared and half honestly this is a nationwide failure. Trump is a lame duck president. My earlier question does stand, he has a instinct for these things and is bat shit crazy. I expect him to try and pull one more crazy stunt to have something to run on.
Progressive Ideas Remain Popular. Progressive Presidential Candidates Are Losing. Why? (Published 2020)
In state after state, voters say they support liberal policies like single-payer health care, canceling student debt and the Green New Deal. But many are voting for Joe Biden, who has proposed largely moderate ideas.www.nytimes.com
Yeah run candidates that look like moderates on the surface, and wisely choose what elections you want to primary Dems on. Trying to win with a progressive in Texas compared to Illinois have two entirely different chances of winning the general.
I won't even put it past some people believing that Trump has the superpower to manipulate the Coronavirus. Like I get the sinking feeling that some would prefer it to happen just to confirm their own worldview.
Yes. You persuade voters by running people to whom they can relate. Suburban soccer moms can relate to Porter and Newman. Those politicians can present progressive policy in a language and package those voters understand - similar to how AOC does so well communicating with younger people. She's one of us!
It's 8% after 18% drop; so it doesn't seem that unrealistic, but that's probably taking the best case scenario for the virus.
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Damian Paletta @damianpalettaQ2, if predicted accurately, would then become the worst 3-month stretch in post WWII era. https://twitter.com/KellyCNBC/status/1240340956081262593 …
2:36 PM - Mar 18, 2020
G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorrisPlugging in a Q2 GDP growth of -14% and Trump net approval rating of -10 into our election model yields a predicted 42% of the two-party vote for the president in November.
My bet is that he would exceed that percentage, but the point is nevertheless clear: he's in trouble. https://twitter.com/KellyCNBC/status/1240340956081262593 …
My bet is that he would exceed that percentage, but the point is nevertheless clear: he's in trouble. https://twitter.com/KellyCNBC/status/1240340956081262593 …
2:48 PM - Mar 18, 2020
I think it depends on how long everything stays shut down. If everything is down so long that a lot of smaller business just close for good there is no way that 8% is coming close to happening. If a lot of businesses can survive then I can kind of see a quick bounceback once things get back to "normal".
So his internal polling shows him trailing Biden in Florida.
And we'd still be down 10% YTD on election day!
I wonder what it's based on. Consumer confidence returning almost immediately starting somewhere in Q2? Hotter weather making for an immediate return to normal where people just go back to their former positions like nothing happened? I don't get it.
Yeah, fatalism is bad, folks. Don't succumb to it as a way to protect your psyche against future events.
I mean, you can listen to people that are slightly older than you about how shit like this plays instead of just replacing history with catastrophic thinking.
I think 6% unemployment is being a little generous. Even when people are allowed to go back to work, domestic/international travel is gonna be way down.
People are going to be stir crazy by the time quarantines end and start hitting bars, restaurants, etc. en masse when it's ok to just to get out of the house.
Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcyIs Fox back on Twitter? This is the outlet's first tweet since November 2018 when it reportedly left the platform in protest over the speed in which Twitter processed requests to delete tweets doxxing Tucker Carlson. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1240352273873670145 …
3:03 PM - Mar 18, 2020
Fox News @FoxNewsKeep up with all the latest COVID-19 news, including tips on keeping safe and stories of survival, struggle and inspiration, at http://FoxNews.com and watch Fox News Channel on television or online – no authentication required.
3:03 PM - Mar 18, 2020
Oliver Darcy on Twitter
“Is Fox back on Twitter? This is the outlet's first tweet since November 2018 when it reportedly left the platform in protest over the speed in which Twitter processed requests to delete tweets doxxing Tucker Carlson. https://t.co/r3HmLCVcRx”
twitter.com
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