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I said it before, if this holds, this is the end of the second movie of a trilogy, not the third finale we were hoping for.
Live to fight on.
Dude between them and Qanon fucks?
I'm not saying we should settle but at least for now it would be good to buy time and rebuild because this shit was WAY too close for such an awful president
im disappointed about the Senate, too but I'm kind of boggled that 2018 was a "blue wave" despite losing Senate seats and today is supposed to be some bittersweet victory, assuming Biden holds on. If the results hold, it's worth celebrating.
Is it over? I thought the ranked choice ballots had to be counted
If it was a landslide we'd be freaking out about complacency going forward. This guarantees the Dems don't fuck around with 2022. Not ideal but let's find silver linings where we can.
I almost want to say people don't deserve healthcare if they decided to vote against their interest - but it will hurt voters who actually want to have healthcare and voted accordingly.
Still, fuck those assholes voting against their own interest.
We're gonna find out how Trump's presence dragged them through in 2022.
Maybe the theory that he brings out rural voters who otherwise wouldn't participate in down-ballot races is accurate. Apparently was in 2018.
It doesn't matter if anyone in the GOP Senate would vote with Democrats, because those votes will never happen. A GOP-controlled Senate means nothing happens without McConnell's express permission. Need to hope for Maine and potential runoffs in Georgia to come through still.
Until he runs in 2024. Unless he's in jail. But a 4 year break would be nice.
No, he wasn't right.
His state-by-state aggregations and projections for margins are wildly off, even if Biden wins the state.
Ohio, 538 model, vote tallies - 49.2 v. 48.2
Ohio, reality - 53.3 v. 45.2 (still counting votes)
His projection of odds was 55/45 Trump wins Ohio, for example. So he can take the approach that says "see? my odds said Trump wins, he won." But the assumption flaw is that the odds were correct. The data suggests that the odds were never as close as 55/45.
He's going to double down again, like he did after 2016, and not learn a damn thing.
You'd think that basic game theory for power in a Dem House, 49-51 Rep Senate, Dem Presidency would have one Rep Senator break ranks and personally install Schumer as Majority Leader, or install themselves as Majority Leader with Dem support, and basically play the role of kingmaker. In the process, becoming the de facto most powerful person in the Senate.
But that doesn't happen.
How strange I was leading until the person ahead of me crossed the finish line!
IS GEOMETRY A DEM COUP? 18 ANGRY ANGLES! MUST INVESTIGATE!
Really getting worried about the PV/EV split long term. Biden will probably win PV by 4-5 while squeaking by in the tipping point state. This can't really hold.
He has been double speaking all day asking for counts to continue in states that favor him and counts to stop in those that don't
He's fucked if he thinks he can overturn shit
Oh shit, sorry. I just quickly googled and didn't catch the 85% reported.
I've been drinking all night so pardon my sloppiness.
If you stop counting now, Biden wins.
If you keep counting, Biden probably wins.
So... try to thread that legal needle, Trump.
If you keep counting, Biden probably wins.
So... try to thread that legal needle, Trump.
The polls were wrong, it's difficult to blame the aggregators for it. But then again, Silver gets way too much credit for when his model is right too.
Technically this should get reallocated as a result of the census but who knows how well that went this year
Amy McGrath has never been a good candidate.
Imagine if this money had gone into DNC infrastructure instead!
Yeah it's fucking infuriating.
I was listening to Philip Bump the other day on POTUS and he was getting testy with callers suggesting that they were vastly off in 2016 and could be off again.
He was arguing that they fixed the polling errors by changing how voters are weighted. Well... About that.
But yes, Nate will certainly say that his map was close. I still gave Trump a 10% and he lost! I was correct!
Kentucky and South Carolina are both deep red states though? Even before the election seems like most people understood that McGrath especially had no chance. Money only helps so much.
Honestly if the Dems were smart the first thing they should do is expand the house to 1000seats.
Feeling so much better today. It's wild how wrong we were, but I'm so happy that there's a ton of room between 413 and 270. I want so badly to live in a world without the electoral college. I don't understand why more Americans aren't outraged about it. It's so blatantly undemocratic.
Polarization of the country is really bad. Like really bad. We need the final results to start seeing what happened between turnouts between parties but I think polarization is forcing us to rely on turnout vs convincing. That bodes ill on change.
When he has to fund the venue, security, etc. These things are going to be far and few between I'd think.
The last one is a really important talking point for pushing back the narrative Trump will try to spin.
Technically, no.
But I don't the party believes they'd have the political capital to get it done.
How? Can still be passed with a Harris vote.
This sticks out because I ended up watching election night with some extremely conservative relatives (including some NewsMax, the low-budget alternative for people who legitimately believe Fox News has gone too liberal), and the Fox anchor kept repeatedly explaining the Red Mirage/vote count order issues in MI/WA/PA. Like to the point of "Jesus why do they keep bringing this up we get it."
I now see it was for Trump, and he still does not get it
Yeah best not to chest beat about this victory at all
Too much at stake but I am happy to see Trump gone regardless
Looking forward to [OT] on ERA "IS ANOTHER US CIVIL WAR INEVITABLE"
Agreed, the way the votes are now he can't really ask for ballots to stop being counted.
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