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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Yeah, if he goes after Trump hard, so much the better. If he goes after Biden hard, that'll be frustrating. I'm prepared to feel frustrated.
I am in favor of his fans holding Sit-ins in the FNC lobby, calling out their blatant, bigoted propaganda. Helping them make money so that you can continue your vanity campaign is Tulsi-level fuckery
538 model has Sanders at a 6% chance of plurality, mostly on the back of a lack of recent polling and the related uncertainty. His strategy was so fundamentally stupid that people should be angry at him for gambling the progressive movement on it, but instead we are going to get three more months of conspiracy theories.
I don't think Bernie will do this terribly but of next Tuesday's states, Nate only has him winning Washington, while Biden wins Michigan, Mississippi, North Dakota, Idaho and Missouri.
Bernie won four of those states in the last primary (WA/MI/ND/ID).
Some amount of location bias there I'm sure, plenty of Fargo/Moorhead friends who are still reeling from the shock loss in Minnesota (which, for some reason, doesn't count as a blue state anymore).
Bernie won four of those states in the last primary (WA/MI/ND/ID).
Yeah, can't wait to see my Facebook friends be like "GOD this is STUPID Biden only wins RED STATES WHO CARES THEY WON'T EVEN VOTE BLUE THIS YEAR" and then immediately flip to "omg Bernie won North Dakota????? WOW it'll be a landslide in November ^_^" if he manages to pull it off there.
Some amount of location bias there I'm sure, plenty of Fargo/Moorhead friends who are still reeling from the shock loss in Minnesota (which, for some reason, doesn't count as a blue state anymore).
Ya, see, this is why all those arguments that "There is no evidence that Bernie would cost down ballot people!!!" kinda didn't make sense to me. These folks aren't stupid. I'm sure they know their re-election or electoin chances better than we do. If folks were running from Bernie at the top of the ticket, I think it was more than just being Establishment, neoliberal, centrists.
I've not been right about everything (I thought both Biden and Bernie would struggle), but the model sure confirms that people were wrong to react to things (Bernie winning, and/or a contested convention) as if they were done deals before a tiny fraction of the delegates were assigned.
People should keep that in mind too when looking to November. It's WAY too early to talk with any certainty about the outcome.
Again, right now, without question, you'd rather be in Biden's position than Bernie's or Trump's, but these things are far from a done deal.
People should keep that in mind too when looking to November. It's WAY too early to talk with any certainty about the outcome.
Again, right now, without question, you'd rather be in Biden's position than Bernie's or Trump's, but these things are far from a done deal.
It's been wild, i been keeping ti surface level for the most part. But even then you noticed can change day to day, and espeically week to week. I mean we have had like 4 different front runners since it began, the only stable rock in the whole thing is no one gives a fuck about tulsi except tulsi
I stopped following news for two weeks and it went from probably Bernie to almost certainly Biden. Just crazy.
I won't feel comfortable with any election day projections until the day after the election.
You know Bernie's camp is a mess when they think democrats watching CNN and MSNBC are the "establishment".
Oh god, I skipped to the end of this Hillary documentary. This last hour is so brutal, my god. What the absolute hell America?
I have a friend who I thought was more than a Bernie bro but now I'm not so sure. The crux of his argument is that it wasn't necessary for the other candidates to pull the socialism card at the last debate. That might be true, but imo he needed that test now. If he failed (and he did) at defending his lifelong strategy of saying the quiet part out loud regarding socialism with the dem base the GE would be worse.
The thing with Bernie and honestly even the DSA is it's probably a better strategy at this point to just avoid talking about socialism. Work on the policy but don't openly call it that. The reality is it just doesn't work.
And then there is just this deep level of distrust for the "establishment" and Biden even though you need them to get the policy you want done.
It just isn't logical. He's like toxically mad about Bernie not winning and it's just like that ain't it bro.
The thing with Bernie and honestly even the DSA is it's probably a better strategy at this point to just avoid talking about socialism. Work on the policy but don't openly call it that. The reality is it just doesn't work.
And then there is just this deep level of distrust for the "establishment" and Biden even though you need them to get the policy you want done.
It just isn't logical. He's like toxically mad about Bernie not winning and it's just like that ain't it bro.
As someone in MI....the primary is not closed. At all.
You are given one ballot. One side is GOP. One side is Dem. You pick the side you want to vote for. We don't have party registration in Michigan.
You are given one ballot. One side is GOP. One side is Dem. You pick the side you want to vote for. We don't have party registration in Michigan.
I voted in the Michigan primary in 2016 and this year via absentee ballot and all you do in the ballot application is choose whether you want a dem or repub ballot.
I bet there is a period where you could go into the woods with Mayor Pete damn near the nominee and come out and it's suddenly Bloomberg's game
Did you skip to the end bc the early biography stuff is grating to watch if you already know it?
The "certainty" in the past 2 weeks prior to the Biden surge came off as insecurity to me. People knew the plurality crap was fundamentally a bad strategy to rely on but wouldn't admit it, and were trying to sell it by being the political equivalent of a little dog barking up a storm to try and avoid a fight.
Its Gamergate shit. Through and through.
That they were pretty much conceding that Bernie wouldn't be able to get a majority of delegates and immediately started to spin it as "if they take it away from him with a plurality it's the end of the party" says a lot. There was very little "okay guys, what can we do to build on this" and a lot of "this should be enough, and if it isn't, fuck you".
I'm Jamaican so I actually do care a lot but I didn't count it because that was almost entirely a crisis due to his bigotry.
This is sort of what people don't get- SC ended every moderate campaign not named Biden. The voters spoke, the party listened, and made a decision based on that feedback.
The significant number of simulations where Tulsi gets hundreds of Delegates are hilarious. If either of the two leaders drop out, she is going to fucking cash in as the protest vote.
It is confusing because it is literally technically closed; it's just unusually easy for anyone to participate in. Here are the words of the Michigan secretary of state:
"Michigan's Presidential Primary has been designated a closed primary."
They are making this distinction apparently because later this year they will have open primary elections for state offices that will feature candidates from both parties on one ballot.
From what I've briefly watched, it's heavily involved throughout the documentary as they go through the primary and general election. It's more just that I don't have a whole bunch of time today and I just wanted to see the general election parts.
My only anger right now is that every time the documentary goes into what are really interesting conversations that the campaign was having during the time about Russia and Trump, it gets cut off early by the campaign itself. :/
Right. Major Pete needed a large haul in SC, and was hoping the 'win' he had, and the press he had would give him a bounce. Instead Biden blew everyone out, and closed the door for all the other moderates.
Supposedly, he doesn't need it: Study showing that Bernie needs huge youth turnout is nonsense. I'm not well-versed enough to parse the data, but some of his conclusions seem suspect. I think he's leaning too heavily on Bernie-or-busters never voting for Biden, and the youth turnout not including Republicans?
Bernie talks about his campaign attracting young voters, but I want to hear him blatantly say, "You have to vote for me if you want these things [free college, student loan forgiveness, etc.]. The centrists won't give them to you." Beg and cajole them. I think young people can be extremely defeatist and often choose not to participate rather than "lose." I'm not a Bernie voter, but I've been trying for 35 years to get young people to vote and get their agenda to the same level of retirees, even if it means I live in a dystopian world where I have to Renew or get turned into food (I know I'm mixing my sci-fi here).
Omg, there's a segment on sexism in here and Chris Matthews makes an appearance. You can't make this shit up lmao
This was largely why i was fairly certain Sanders had no path to the majority while Biden did.
The entire message from Sanders while he was in front wasnt an inclusive one to consolidate support, it was doubling down on rhetoric to fire up his base and antagonize the establishment.
In a divided field that consolidated, the establishment candidates were extremely unlikely to back him and in the case of Bloomberg the odds of his support or the support of his base going to Sanders was literally zero, and Bloomberg at that time was polling third.
In a situation where the field consolidated and candidates dropped out quickly to give one candidate a majority, that candidate was almost always going to be Biden.
I don't understand what this study is supposed to debunk, when the youth argument was BERNIE's argument. No one forced him and his campaign to pursue it! They pursued it because of the left's stupid ideological obsession with going after bad theories of electoral politics that let them pretend class is the primary driving issue in shaping politics, when unfortunately, it's been shown time and time again it isn't and that we have a big underlying problem with racism and xenophobia that keeps throwing wrenches into the engine. Class consciousness doesn't work because people don't work that way.
I guess I'll defend Sanders' basic strategy. Getting a majority of delegates was always going to be a huge challenge for him. He was never going to be able to effectively pivot from running against the establishment to reassuring voters outside of his coalition that he's not actually that scary. This was only ever going to happen once he was the nominee and the party had no choice, like with Trump in 2016. Being anti-establishment is his whole brand and it's why he has what support he does have. He was always pretty likely to lose a two-person race against just about anyone else in the field no matter what he did and his best chance was just to hold on to his ~30% of hard supporters, attract another 10 or 15%, and win a convincing plurality against a divided moderate field. And it almost worked! There's at least some chance it still does.
I mean, if the left wing of the party was interested in voting for a candidate with thoroughly progressive positions and who terrifies billionaires, but who the party establishment is a lot more comfortable with and who's a lot less scary to suburban whites, we had someone they could have supported instead. The scariness is the point.
I mean, if the left wing of the party was interested in voting for a candidate with thoroughly progressive positions and who terrifies billionaires, but who the party establishment is a lot more comfortable with and who's a lot less scary to suburban whites, we had someone they could have supported instead. The scariness is the point.
The scariness is obviously a huge part of the attraction, but do you think people would have dropped Bernie if he pivoted to more inclusive messaging?
I think we're seeing that some of that is, well, BS. Sanders may think that, but there's not a lot of evidence of it.
Note that I'm not talking about support for the policies he's pushing, but that there's this big base of support for him out there - it's clearly not like he and his campaign thought.
While I certainly considered him the "frontrunner" before South Carolina, he wasn't exactly dominating in those performances and it never felt like he was running away with things. Then South Carolina came along and dealt a body blow to the campaign, and then Super Tuesday might've been the knockout blow.
Sanders' whole argument for his campaign - its whole reason for existence - is just not showing up in reality.
I don't have time to delve into this study so maybe this addresses what I'm about to say, but I just don't get the premise of Bernie not needing to win huge youth turnout to win when he's currently losing the primary with poor youth turnout. Maybe if he was turning out young voters at the rate he said he could he'd do be doing a lot better!
In any event, as Kirblar said, the whole argument of Bernie turning out young voters to propel him to victory was *his* argument in the first place, it's what he's been saying on the stump over and over again. "If we get a giant turnout of young and new voters, we will win."
Sanders has intense support. But he doesn't have broad support. Selling out stadiums all over is evidence of the former. Not of the latter. And while the GOP was very vulnerable to Trump because of winner-take-all, the Dems have a proportional system which makes a minority takeover difficult.
What's funny is that with winner take all Bernie would be getting his ass kicked right now and honestly Biden, not Bernie, would have an easy path to a majority of the delegates.
Sounds like a lot of hindsight bias saying Bernie's strategy was always bad. He came very close to winning it all and it took an unprecedented show of unity from moderates to deliver Biden millions in earned media going in to Super Tuesday. We could just as easily have been sayin Biden's strategy was bad, ignoring basically the first couple states and betting it all on SC, if a couple things didn't go his way.
Some, yeah. Maybe "the left wing of the party" isn't quite right. Sanders attracts a lot of self-identified conservatives and moderates who clearly aren't in it for the ideology, and you've got to figure that some of his left support is the same way. I can imagine him being substantially less exciting to a segment of low-propensity young voters and to disaffected burn-it-all-down types if he tries to be materially less scary to everyone else.
But part of the problem for him here is that it's just very hard for him to be less scary at this point. He can "pivot to more inclusive messaging" but who is this going to persuade on any side? To the extent that people already supporting him are likely to just shrug it off as necessary politics, people not already supporting him are going to see right through it. So in some ways doubling down is the only strategy that's even available to him now, and if he wanted to pursue another one it'd require a really dramatic shift that I think really might shake loose some of his existing support.
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