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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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538's final super tuesday forecast now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority of delegates before the convention. Sanders at 8%, "No majority" at 61%.
I'm curious what these numbers would look like with Bloomberg out of the race.
fivethirtyeight.com
I'm curious what these numbers would look like with Bloomberg out of the race.
Our Final Forecast For Super Tuesday Shows Biden’s Surge — And Lots Of Uncertainty
Former Vice President Joe Biden has gotten a lot of good news over the past few days. A huge, almost 30-point win in South Carolina. A series of impressive endo…
fivethirtyeight.com
538's final super tuesday forecast now has Biden with a 31% chance to win a majority of delegates before the convention. Sanders at 8%, "No majority" at 61%.
I'm curious what these numbers would look like with Bloomberg out of the race.
let's goooooooo All Others
that dude looks like he can party
Lol. It's a joke. While I do think Era isn't as progressive as I hope for it is very clearly anti-Trump by a large margin.
The Texas Congressman Who Isn’t Afraid of the AOC Left
Progressives want Henry Cuellar out. Does his district?
www.theatlantic.com
Nuclear meltdown take from this and other reads on this race: JustUs Democrats trying to unseat someone in a D+9 district with a maximalist left candidate is malpractice when the sitting candidate is cruise controlling to re-election every year. Good on Pelosi for intervening, even if its divisive.
You can "un suspend" a campaign. Gingrich did it in 2012, i think.
I'd like to announce that I am entering the Presidential Race with my new slogan: "Someone Else 2020".
Deepstate:
4:39 PM - Mar 3, 2020
Brad Heath @bradheathA federal court has ruled that the Justice Department does not need to reveal additional information from the Carter Page FISA applications. The White House said President Trump had declassified the information; the court ruled that he actually had not.
4:39 PM - Mar 3, 2020
Nate's model is a big swingy mess. I'm glad they tried it but election science and engineering moves way too fast for historical behaviors to be very accurate, and the compressed cycle and always-on nature of these primaries makes it particularly messy when a clear data point on demographic preference was added.
Ah cool, you had me going for a second lmao
oh no
This is a pretty progressive thread, unless you define progressive as 'agrees completely and unconditionally with Bernie.'
Manu Raju @mkrajuSusan Collins would not say today if she backed Trump in Tuesday's primary in her state.
"I already answered that question," Collins told me. An aide referred me to an interview from last week. She didn't say in that interview if she would vote for Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/politics/susan-collins-trump-reelection/index.html …
"I already answered that question," Collins told me. An aide referred me to an interview from last week. She didn't say in that interview if she would vote for Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/politics/susan-collins-trump-reelection/index.html …
4:47 PM - Mar 3, 2020
Biden not even campaigning in CA tells me Bernie is going to do very very well there.
Bernie is also going to win MN and CO with good margins which pretty much washes VA and NC.
DFP and Morning Consult are C ranked pollsters.
Why are we putting much weight in them at all?
So if Bernie does well in CA and is even close in TX (I think he will win it), he will have about 200 delegates on Biden after today.
I think he's better at coalition building than many give him credit for and NV is pretty good evidence of it.
CA does too. Even if the black demographics aren't super high percentage wise it's still the 5th highest black population in the country.
And with latinx folks it seems like Bernie does really well.
Wouldn't him winning TX actually be pretty strong evidence as well of him being able to build a diverse coalition?
He will work on earning more black support in the general.
Bernie is also going to win MN and CO with good margins which pretty much washes VA and NC.
DFP and Morning Consult are C ranked pollsters.
Why are we putting much weight in them at all?
So if Bernie does well in CA and is even close in TX (I think he will win it), he will have about 200 delegates on Biden after today.
I think he's better at coalition building than many give him credit for and NV is pretty good evidence of it.
CA does too. Even if the black demographics aren't super high percentage wise it's still the 5th highest black population in the country.
And with latinx folks it seems like Bernie does really well.
Wouldn't him winning TX actually be pretty strong evidence as well of him being able to build a diverse coalition?
He will work on earning more black support in the general.
Look at basically any thread about LGBT issues, or womens' issues, and get back to me.
Folks can be real shitty.
I just meant this thread in particular. Yeah... shit gets a little wild in the OT forum.
Great comparison here. Totally company you want to be in
Yeah, agreed. It seems to me that right now we are seeing what we saw when the primary began and Biden was the "clear frontrunner". Speculation based on the current playing field. But once votes started coming we saw he was not the clear frontrunner. Tonight is going to be VERY interesting.
Anne Rumsey Gearan @agearanA remarkable thing about the Trump news cycle is how remarkable things like this become just part of the daily news shuffle. Here's the U.S. president speaking to the head of the Taliban, the group that helped bin Laden and killed Americans in Afghanistan. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-taliban-phone-call-baradar/2020/03/03/b2a01a4e-5d87-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html …
4:48 PM - Mar 3, 2020
Doesn't instill much confidence if our front runner is being compared to two big GE losers in modern politics.
It's garbage with only data and no theory.
Where are utility maximizing media agents? Nowhere, the model just assumes very positive media coverage from whoever won last.
Where are utility maximizing voters that use strategic voting to get the best outcome they want? Nowhere.
Where are utility maximizing candidates that drop out to endorse candidates similar to them? Nowhere.
Nate is all data (7 total primary elections worth of data...) and no theory and so he's produced garbage.
Not talking specifically about this thread or any single thread...just Era as a whole. Every now and then there is stuff being expressed that makes me wish that we were better as a whole.
To be a bit fair I imagine if Kerry actually went with a good VP choice he could have beaten Bush, and we all know Palin is kinda self explanatory
I don't think I'd want a model that tried to guess at stuff like that because its unquantifiable. The model may be at the mercy of those things, but in the end those would be judgement calls, i.e., letting pundit Nate influence the model.
Yeah avoid Pete, fucking go for Tammy Baldwin or Stacy Abrams even go for Bernie for that unity ticket.
GCB + 11 gets you an inanimate carbon rod winning as the nominee.
I wonder what the impetus behind this tweet is, but its worth noting Kerry consolidated his lead like a month before a single vote was cast.
Edit: Anyway, we're in uncharted territory after 2016. Maybe the old rules apply. Maybe they don't. Good luck guessing which ones are which.
Yeah no matter what happens we'll be able to stop heinous legislation at least.
Kerry is my "if you were a benevolent dictator and could install anyone" choice for president, hands down. If he could just have the job without dealing with the popularity contest that is campaigning, I think he'd be better than Hillary.
Warren's up there too, of course, but in terms of just who would be most effective, it's Kerry.
Also even if Biden is president, Bernie and Warren will still be senators. The idea that they won't be able to influence legislation is ludicrous, they'll have as much veto power as Joe Manchin.
I don't know why me procrastinating at work leads to me being a dick on the internet. Sorry!
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