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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.

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Deleted member 7462

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Oct 25, 2017
6,877
Kaitos said:
1) the point is that winning suburban women is not the only thing that wins you elections — Hillary proves that.
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This is a genuine question because you're an analytical person: What voter groups do you think that Bernie can pull while holding suburban women that make him a better bet than Biden? Would you argue that the Zoomer vote will be there in key areas? Do you think that Bernie holds men better than Biden will and than Clinton did?

I'm sure that you have the numbers to back this up, but I want to see the argument if you feel like making it. My understanding of the numbers is that Bernie and Biden lead Trump nationally and in MI/WI/PA about the same, but that Bernie is a harder bet in FL/AZ and might shrink our map.
 

JesseEwiak

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,781
Vector said:
isn't it like, super worrying to you that Biden needed a Hail Mary in the endorsement of a million elected Democrats and two candidates dropping out and endorsing him to stay competitive?

There won't be a Hail Mary for Biden in the General.
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No, because all polling shows Biden with healthy leads in the general, despite his terrible campaign so far.

I'm worried about either a Biden or Bernie GE for totally different reasons, but I give them both better than average odds of winning. It's just as likely Bernie's inability to make any concessions about his past views will kill him in a general just as much as Biden's lethargy will. Or Bernie being a deadbeat dad with no job until he was 40 will upset swing voters just as much as Biden's son getting a bunch of nepotism related jobs.
 

Deleted member 13101

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Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Chris Matthews announced his last Hardball tonight.

Edit: Beaten badly, so I'll just mention Michael Moore a short time ago expressed displeasure at Pete and Klob leaving before Tuesday. They were supposed to leave the race after Tuesday, according to him. He says that people are flocking to Biden's campaign and endorsing him just to go against Sanders.
 
Ogodei

Ogodei

One Winged Slayer
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Oct 25, 2017
10,256
Coruscant
cameron said:
Senate GOP:





Manu Raju @mkraju

Early reaction from McConnell and others shows that while Ratcliffe could certainly get confirmed, he doesn't have much margin for error during his confirmation proceedings https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/pol

Senate Intel Chairman Richard Burr just told me there is no ambiguity from his measured Friday night statement: He will back John Ratcliffe to be DNI. "I'm supportive of John Ratcliffe. That's what the statement said. Period."

Asked what changed from last year when Ratcliffe was first nominated and GOP senators had concerns, Burr said: "There was a different pathway in the Senate. I don't think anybody has changed their opinion of John Ratcliffe. What changed is the pathway to get somebody confirmed."

Burr added: "If Democrats want to vote against him and have Grenell stay on as acting is fine with me."

6:07 PM - Mar 2, 2020
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I may be over-reading the tea leaves but they seem to be in a bad mood, which augers well for us.
 

Baron Eyepatch

Member
Feb 14, 2018
3,083
Kaitos said:
1) the point is that winning suburban women is not the only thing that wins you elections — Hillary proves that.

2) Hillary's lead in 2016 was largely built on the back of states that don't matter in the GE so who gives a shit?
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Biden's base in the primary is not suburban white women. He would likely appeal to them more than his chief competitor, though. What happened to the talk of diverse coalitions?
 
Chaos Legion

Chaos Legion

The Wise Ones
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Oct 30, 2017
16,919
I don't think Biden is a good campaigner.

But in the GE, do y'all really think Obama won't be in every goddamn state for Biden? If Harris is his pick, she'd be out there pounding the pavement. Beto might get on some tables. Bernie will probably campaign as well.
 
Owzers

Owzers

Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,483
Wonderment said:
Chris Matthews announced his last Hardball tonight.

Edit: Beaten badly, so I'll just mention Michael Moore a short time ago expressed displeasure at Pete and Klob leaving before Tuesday. They were supposed to leave the race after Tuesday, according to him. He says that people are flocking to Biden's campaign and endorsing him just to go against Sanders.
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I like hearing from Moore but that just seems like the argument of a losing side complaining about dropping out now instead of Super Tuesday. Too bad?
 
Soul Skater

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
Chaos Legion said:
I don't think Biden is a good campaigner.

But in the GE, do y'all really think Obama won't be in every goddamn state for Biden? If Harris is his pick, she'd be out there pounding the pavement. Beto might get on some tables. Bernie will probably campaign as well.
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I'm glad we've settled on our nominee being the political equivalent of an Overwatch Payload
 
adam387

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
Dr. Benton Quest said:
I'm not sure this is correct.

Polls have him getting a slight bump just after, but settling back down to approximately 20% until mid January.
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Bernie had the heart attack in October, right? (I'm asking I can't remember.) He was polling around 15% or so then according to the Economist average. Biden is currently polling higher than that in the aggregate.

But,as it relates to the original question, endorsements can change races. The race was going to change nationally if Biden won SC. It's impossible to determine how much Clyburn's endorsement helped in SC. Biden's numbers in SC were improving after his decent 2nd place finish in NV. If the endorsement helped him increase his SC margin by 4-5 points that's enough of a "win" in my book to say he gets a lot of the credit for the turnaround.

But, endorsements are meant to change narratives. The Squad did that for Bernie, and it appears as though Clyburn did that for Biden.
 
Scottt

Scottt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,212
Chaos Legion said:
I don't think Biden is a good campaigner.

But in the GE, do y'all really think Obama won't be in every goddamn state for Biden? If Harris is his pick, she'd be out there pounding the pavement. Beto might get on some tables. Bernie will probably campaign as well.
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They will, but it still comes down to him.
 
cubanb

cubanb

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,600
Pooh said:
Right I just mean... it's like nobody else even knew he was retiring. did Matthews just decide today, "eh, fuck it, I'm done" ?

edit: thanks studyguy , though it makes me wonder if his co-hosts had any idea or if it was just upper management
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I bet Kornacki was off studying some polls and they yanked him in front of the camera.
 
Casa

Casa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,524
Wonderment said:
He didn't come back from commercial break, either.
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Yeah, I just flipped to it and saw Kornacki almost in tears. Pretty clear Matthews was told he had to go after the shitstorms he's been causing lately. Also pretty clear by him not even coming back after commercial break that he ain't happy about it.

He had to go, though. His brain has been fried for a while and he was really taking things super personally. He was toxic as fuck on air and reports also suggest he was toxic off air as well.
 
Ignatz Mouse

Ignatz Mouse

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,741
Bronlonius said:
I wish I could LIKE this comment, it's spot fucking on. What am I missing with Biden, because he's so milqetoast, it's just maddening. Plus, the right has assumed he'd be the nominee for a long time, and they've got cruise ships full of Oppo for him, and it'll be bad, very bad. Please change my mind and enlighten me as to why he's better than our populist movement they're trying to shut down.

The smartest thing the GOP did was coalesce behind Trump, even if it took a while. They listened to the people, begrudgingly or not, and won because of it. Now, they may burn forever because of it, and that would be amazing, but at least they're not actively trying to tell millions that they don't matter and that they don't care about the young enthusiastic voters like the DNC establishment is doing. What kind of party sees a huge energetic movement, bringing in tons of new voters, and says, "naw, we're good, it's Biden's turn. Go away and be quiet in your little selfie corners." ?
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They only galvanized behind Trump once he won the primary. If Sanders doesn't win, why would they coalesce behind him?
 
Kaitos

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,707
UnapologeticallyBLK said:
This is a genuine question because you're an analytical person: What voter groups do you think that Bernie can pull while holding suburban women that make him a better bet than Biden? Would you argue that the Zoomer vote will be there in key areas? Do you think that Bernie holds men better than Biden will and than Clinton did?

I'm sure that you have the numbers to back this up, but I want to see the argument if you feel like making it. My understanding of the numbers is that Bernie and Biden lead Trump nationally and in MI/WI/PA about the same, but that Bernie is a harder bet in FL/AZ and might shrink our map.
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I think Bernie will do slightly worse than Biden with suburban voters but not that much worse and then could do significantly better with low propensity voters, as well as Midwestern non-col voters who are anti-establishment voters and want "change". Obviously a lot of questions.

and as of now, Bernie's been polling better in MI/PA/WI so there's that too.
 
Dr. Benton Quest

Dr. Benton Quest

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Oct 25, 2017
3,367
adam387 said:
Bernie had the heart attack in October, right? (I'm asking I can't remember.) He was polling around 15% or so then according to the Economist average. Biden is currently polling higher than that in the aggregate.

But,as it relates to the original question, endorsements can change races. The race was going to change nationally if Biden won SC. It's impossible to determine how much Clyburn's endorsement helped in SC. Biden's numbers in SC were improving after his decent 2nd place finish in NV. If the endorsement helped him increase his SC margin by 4-5 points that's enough of a "win" in my book to say he gets a lot of the credit for the turnaround.

But, endorsements are meant to change narratives. The Squad did that for Bernie, and it appears as though Clyburn did that for Biden.
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Looking at the RCP election polls, I'm not sure there is a trend downward. He was at about 15% before the AOC endorsement, and then about a week later several polls had him at 13%.

It's a bit of a stretch to equate the two I think. AOC is popular, but her endorsement doesn't carry a tenth of the weight Clyburn's does.
 
ChucklesB

ChucklesB

Member
Nov 4, 2017
1,490
Dr. Benton Quest said:
Looking at the RCP election polls, I'm not sure there is a trend downward. He was at about 15% before the AOC endorsement, and then about a week later several polls had him at 13%.

It's a bit of a stretch to equate the two I think. AOC is popular, but her endorsement doesn't carry a tenth of the weight Clyburn's does.
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Ehhhhh, I dunno, you could go back in the ResetEra logs and look at some of the ish being said around time of AOC's endorsement.
 
kcp12304

kcp12304

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,978
Chaos Legion said:
I don't think Biden is a good campaigner.

But in the GE, do y'all really think Obama won't be in every goddamn state for Biden? If Harris is his pick, she'd be out there pounding the pavement. Beto might get on some tables. Bernie will probably campaign as well.
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Hillary had amazing surrogates including Obama and Bernie. They can be important cogs in a gotv machine but I just don't think it matters if the candidate can't excite people.
 
studyguy

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282
cameron said:


Mike DeBonis @mikedebonis

A smiling Jim Clyburn enters the House chamber. "What a difference a day makes," he says when asked about Biden's last 24 hours.

6:50 PM - Mar 2, 2020
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Joe Biden is basically going to grovel at the altar of Clyburn forever now. Absolutely indebted to that man now.

Also there's no question Joe has been a shit campaigner, his entire run has basically been strapped for cash and it's been known. He gets hailed for being good in retail politics, but like shit man. You can't clone him and have him go meet the entire country, and he looks lost half the time on stage. Feels like the worst mix. At best moderates finally decide to fucking fund him now that everyone bowed out but that solves the one problem of him being starved for funds.
 
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