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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I'm probably just over-correcting from 2016, but truly, it feels like the discourse during this primary behaves like we didn't just thoroughly, embarrassingly fucking lose with the "I'm the other guy: vote for me" platform.
His delegate model is dumb and stupid. It has swung wildly to the smallest inputs, let alone giant changes like today's. Save us Hari Seldon.
At this point I also think Biden just gets the majority of delegates and wins clean. 2016 redux.
Yep. It was never going to get to a contested convention.
Out of all these candidates Biden has the least enthusiastic base. Preparing for another trump presidency.
It's pretty wild how they doubled down instead of learning anything.
The definition for insanity is doing the same thing multiple times expecting different results.
My eyes couldn't roll harder at this...
Every non viable candidate should have dropped out by now.
Amy and Pete endorsing Biden is not a surprise, but Reid endorsing is a big deal. And also odd, given how much Nevada just went for Bernie.
tbh, I think our chances of flipping AZ, NC, and TX are still pretty good, maybe even slightly more likely, with Biden at the top (excluding the Hunter/Burisma dogpile Trump and the RNC will unleash on him). The young voter turnout is definitely going to suck but at the same time, Bernie has not really proven his ability to turn out all the first-time voters he said he could over the past month. And as much as Bernie crushing with Latinos in NV makes me hopeful for his GE prospects in that area, I am worried about what his horrible showing with black voters in SC portends. A 30-point loss might not be as bad as the 50-point loss he had against Hillary in 2016, but if black voters, particularly older black voters, are the bedrock of this party as we've kept telling ourselves, then we have to look at Bernie's poor showing there Saturday as a serious red flag.
The Democrats who have won statewide in AZ and NC this decade (Sinema, Cooper) are much more like Biden than they are like Bernie. Conversely, if Bernie is the nominee, good luck winning any elections in FL for the foreseeable future.
^
Trump winning doesn't threaten any of their seats and obscure, labyrinthine organization structure/connections. Bernie winning really does open up the possibility of actual reform within the party itself that would necessitate cleaning house to some extent. Party leaders fear the latter far more than the former just like Culinary union bosses feared Bernie while the base loved him.
Florida is a black box stuffed within an enigma electorally speaking. That said, if you lose the youth then what future do you really have? White suburban moms will eventually leave Democrats, but the minorities and youth are there to stay.
User Banned (1 Week): Insensitive Commentary Around Race
Older black voters basically are the Democratic Party. And they don't use the Internet.
As far as the GE, if Biden reassembles the 2018 coalition he has a good shot.
As far as the GE, if Biden reassembles the 2018 coalition he has a good shot.
Yep, seems that way. With everyone out but Bernie, Warren and Biden, I doubt there'd be a contested convention
Imagine being worried about Biden in a GE when Bernie is the other option.
In that case, you were just going to be worried either way, which tbh makes sense because this is a staggeringly weak field. Barack Obama ain't walking through that door. '96 Bill Clinton ain't walking through that door.
In that case, you were just going to be worried either way, which tbh makes sense because this is a staggeringly weak field. Barack Obama ain't walking through that door. '96 Bill Clinton ain't walking through that door.
He got the full opposition of the Democratic Party leaders and Clinton had a ~400 delegate lead from the start thanks to superdelegates. The fact that he took off at all is impressive and saying he hasn't been the underdog all along is crazy.
I know your joking but if Warren dropping out today could have that much of a positive impact on Sanders campaign. Why how no one is putting the onus on Bernie to be on the phone with her right now convincing her that and striking deals with her?
They are following the very successful and always working Claire Mcaskill strategy: alienate your passionate base for some mythical "blue dog dem" that in reality doesn't exist anymore. Never fails. Republicans won the presidency by embracing their base, but Democrats seem to hate theirs and go out of their way to fight against them. So instead of nominating a dude who won't take the shit of Republicans we nominate a moron who thinks he can work with Republicans to do anything. Like he did getting Obama's agenda done in his second term, or getting his centrist judge even a meeting. Oh right, he didn't.
The "establishment" being the voters who are deciding who the candidate is?
The idea that Bernie would drop right now if the roles were reversed is humorous is all. I don't have a real dog in this one, but it's absurdist as a concept knowing everything there is in the past here.
She has no shot at winning. Biden, as of now, has called basically all ideas like hers stupid and impossible, downplayed any urgency to enact basically anything she supports and that young people are dumb and have it easy
The choice is clear. If she actually wants any chance of moving the ideas she has put our there Bernie is the only one who would actually even try to get them done. Biden doesn't give a shit.
If she cares about her agenda she would put her beef with rose Twitter aside and drop. Both Amy and Pete care about stopping an agenda they don't support. If Warren actually does try and pull her convention nonsense it'll just say she doesn't actually care. Biden could not be any more clear in how little interest he has in doing anything she talks about. Why doesn't that bother her as much as it did for Pete and Amy
At this point I am kinda hoping for a clean Biden win because if not this is going to get super ugly.
Maybe he wouldn't do it but he should do it if he were in the same case. Doesn't make Warren in the right for doing something that Sanders may do.
The people in South Carolina had a range of candidates to choose from. They chose. As do the Super Tuesday states (though smaller range, they will choose as well).
This wasn't the same as 2016 at all, even for Sanders as he performed even better, earlier. And some of the phrasing here is beginning to suggest that women are conspiring to keep a particular man out of the election. We're not there yet where we can casually tell women they're not viable and should drop out now, they get that plenty from other areas of life as it is.
This wasn't the same as 2016 at all, even for Sanders as he performed even better, earlier. And some of the phrasing here is beginning to suggest that women are conspiring to keep a particular man out of the election. We're not there yet where we can casually tell women they're not viable and should drop out now, they get that plenty from other areas of life as it is.
For some reason people don't care about Sanders not being able to make deals. Which is silly because he's gonna need to make a lot to get his shit passed.
Bernie's movement will continue either way, and will continue agitating for getting us healthcare like the rest of the world. The mainstream Democrats wouldn't stick their necks out to fix the water in Flint.
I don't necessarily disagree with his, but also, people are voting for him. I don't know why when he is such a milquetoast candidate with milquetoast ideas, but they are.
I'm not a pro-Biden guy, but I don't see how a few candidates that are out of money dropping out and endorsing a like-minded candidate and a few endorsements from folks like Harry Reid adds up to 'THE ESTABLISHMENT IS RIGGING IT AGAIN!'. Granted, I am somewhat naive and somewhat uninformed, but I say these things in good faith, and not as a way to just rile up Bernie folks.
This has nothing to do with sexism and it's ridiculious to spin it that way
Clinton had a 0 delegate lead from the start. Supers don't do anything until the convention
Josh Jamerson @joshjamefwiw, the Warren campaign has been wanting a three-way race between her, Biden and Sanders. If Amy/Pete help Biden burry Bloomberg on Super Tuesday—and Warren gets some delegates from CA—really is the environment they have been signaling for weeks that they want.
1:58 PM - Mar 2, 2020
Josh Lederman @JoshNBCNews"I'm in it to win it," @MikeBloomberg says just now after Klobuchar & Buttigieg drop out within a 24-hour span
2:09 PM - Mar 2, 2020
I mean, if the situation was reversed, Bernie should absolutely drop out!
In this scenario, Warren is Vegeta? Ultimately the better character who reluctantly takes one for the team? I can see it.
He was crushed in the pledged delegates. Let's not rewrite history. If Bernie loses again at a certain point folks gotta accept maybe the majority of democrats ain't buying what he's selling.
I don't think they'll stick around after losing two primary cycles despite working their asses off due to some power plays they had no say in.
You don't realize how frustrating this shit is for young voters.
Or maybe Bernie didn't learn anything from 2016? Shouldn't he have made friends, made some deals, and upped his status within the party? It's hard to get angry at "the establishment" for going against him when he's literally been running against them this whole time.
They love the status quo more than anything. They would rather lose to Trump in November than have Bernie remake the party in a socialist image. This is their last gasp play to try and win everything.
And yes, this is also Bernie's fault. Because he decided to play maverick instead of trying to gently push the party forward like Warren and others did.
You forget El Bloombito.
I still don't think Biden's nomination is a foregone conclusion, but we'll know much better after ST. Maybe this coming Biden/Bernie competition will actually wake Biden up so he stops popping his head above ground every six weeks like a fucking political groundhog. This simile does not make any sense but whatever.
I would agree with you on black voters if we could see outcomes in states like PA or Michigan, but we haven't, so I don't know yet. Just like the hispanic vote, black people are not a monolith.
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