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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I've expected this for months. It's not an unreasonable play... she has a fair case to make vs Sanders and Biden for the nomination. I couldn't help but notice that the contender No One had a surge in some of the delegate models last night!
Edit: Oh man, don't look at the replies to that tweet. Still not as bad as I was expecting, admittedly.
What case does she have to make? At this rate she's not winning a single state. She'll be almost dead last in delegate count, possibly only above Klob and Steyer.
I still wouldn't pay much attention to the 538 model until after ST. Slight changes are causing the model to fluctuate dramatically, but as more delegates actually get allotted we should be getting a clearer picture as to how likely a contested convention is.
Re: Warren's play for the convention. It's a dead-end strategy. If she actually was amassing a decent delegate count she would actually have leverage, but she isn't looking to pick up much more than she currently has. I'd sooner see her dropping after getting blown out on Super Tuesday.
Re: Warren's play for the convention. It's a dead-end strategy. If she actually was amassing a decent delegate count she would actually have leverage, but she isn't looking to pick up much more than she currently has. I'd sooner see her dropping after getting blown out on Super Tuesday.
if she loses MA I think she still drops out. Plus for this to be realistic she has to win at least a few states between now and the convention. If not she will not be able to go in there and dictate some compromises from the eventual candidate.
For one thing, 538's model has Bloomberg getting like 600 delegates, which I strongly doubt.
But if Bloomberg is in fact a paper tiger, I think more of those delegates will go to Biden vs. anyone else.
But if Bloomberg is in fact a paper tiger, I think more of those delegates will go to Biden vs. anyone else.
I think, like with most of the current runners, these campaigns are waiting to see the results of Super Tuesday. Now if Amy, Pete, and Warren are all still in after ST I'll understand the confusion.
if a snek is a snek
I mean politically..... Biden would benefit from her support a lot more than Bernie and adopting her plans would help him a lot and Bernie has done her no favors......
New NBC polls have Cunningham beating Tillis 48-43! We stand a very good chance of getting the Senate if we gain NC.
Cornyn leads Hegar 49-41 - sizable gap, but he's an incumbent under 50%, and she lacks statewide name recognition. He'll probably win, but maybe...
And not to bury the lede, but both Sanders and Biden beat Trump in NC. If we win that state, we've won the election.
Dems are 2 cycles to soon for anything tangible state-wide in Texas. Stop wasting money on it.
Though I agree that anyone that's not Sanders or Biden should probably go after Tuesday, when the odds of a contested convention continue to increase everyone has incentive to not officially drop out.
Does she somehow become the nominee this way? Extremely unlikely. But it's still there.
Case to make as a candidate, which doesn't necessarily translate from number of states won. Once you get to a brokered convention any numbers/tallies/votes/whatever mean nothing unless it's forming a coalition with another candidate on the first ballot. Hell, literally anyone could try to make their case. The only two people that would be ineligible for nomination are Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. You just try to argue your strengths. Nominations used to be settled this way quite often.
Basically I'm saying that she can show she's been the compromise candidate and preferred second choice like the entire primary season, which is basically the definition of how you like to say you managed a brokered convention. She rarely leads no one demographic but is 2nd in a lot of them.
Does she somehow become the nominee this way? Extremely unlikely. But it's still there.
Those NBC polls also have Trump's approval in NC at 45%. NC is to the right of the country by a few points, meaning Trump's approval is probably where it always is nationwide.
If Bernie is the nominee I think North Carolina, Arizona, and of course the Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan trifecta are all still on the table. Florida is the only close Trump state that would become unwinnable at that point.
Just as well for the immediate-term because NC/AZ/ME/CO is our best Senate path.
Just as well for the immediate-term because NC/AZ/ME/CO is our best Senate path.
Sanders, yes. Biden, no.
Warren's appeal with minority voters is horrible so far. Coming in behind Pete in SC takes some *work.* With black voters being somewhere around 30% of the democratic primary voting bloc, a candidate with negligible support there is going to be a non starter.
Also not entirely irrelevant is that some of the states you want to be in play this round (NC, GA) have significant AA populations and you'll need someone who can push turnout. That's not going to be Warren.
You know that statewide investment helps in TX-21, 22, 24, 10, 23, etc? Lots of vulnerable suburban House seats to win this year.
Yes, Cornyn will probably win, but we'd be remiss not to take a shot at an incumbent polling under 50% in a high-quality poll whose main challenger has already cracked 40% with low name recognition.
Anyway, we now have two high-quality polls in as many weeks showing Trump losing to Biden and Sanders in NC. With that state, we no longer need WI (or AZ for that matter). Good to have a buffer.
2018 gave me hope
Everyone talks about Millenials like they're still in their early twenties, but the oldest of us are almost forty and our voting habits have clearly changed since a decade ago. Come 2020 Gen X and Millenials alone might outvote boomers for the first time. In 2018 it took those two groups and Gen Z to finally outvote boomers.
Edit: Gen Z also came in surprisingly strong for their first midterm, too. They seem more politically engaged than millenials were in their late teens to early twenties.
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Yes, christ, her appeal with minorities is bad. Sanders is largely just as awful short a burst of young Latinx votes in NV. I'll simplify the issue-- black votes from urban areas in purple rust belt states win D presidencies. Period. More specifically? Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia. The presidency hinges on turnout in those cities, and that's been true since 2004 or so. A nominee basically has to move that group in some way. It's Biden's strongest argument to be the nominee in a brokered convention.
Latinx vote in sun belt state cities could well become the new version of that demographic within the next decade... Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta... but there aren't enough votes in those places quite yet for it to work.
Bernie in aggregate is far ahead in Texas, but i'm sure Biden will get a bump. Enough to close off? Not sure. But it'll be closer. NC is Biden's I think after the SC performance.
I hear what you are saying but I just don't think it works because everybody else would feel robbed. She has to win her state at a bare minimum. Plus do at least 3rd going forward in damn near every test.
Again- agree completely, with the caveat that the party should be focusing heavily on GA and NC. If not for republican voter suppression efforts, those two would already be firmly in the swing state column.
Roy Cooper must feel good about those GE numbers because he'll definitely be outrunning the top of the ticket and might even help pull PresiDem/Cunningham along.
nope.
2020 Democratic Primary: Who will win the Texas primary?
FiveThirtyEight's Texas polls and forecast for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election.
538 has Biden and Sanders essentially tied there- 28% of the vote to Biden's 27%. And that's largely because Bloomberg is projected to take 18% of the vote and 16 delegates there. I'm not confident at all that Bloomberg's polling holds up after the run biden has had in the past week or so leading up to ST.
edit: had to edit because the projection literally changed between the time I copied and pasted.
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Bloomberg is absolutely a paper tiger. I suspect his support crumbles the second people need to actually vote for him
I'm sad about Warren. I'm mad about the "only white women like her" narrative from rose twitter. She could have been the bridge between Bernie and Biden.
I think Dems have a shot at the presidency regardless. I just think we all have to reconcile: young dem and blue collar dem voters want socialism/progress, black dem voters want [[Biden]], and white collar/older white voters want progress, but not too much. Just a helluva split for a coalition party.
I think Dems have a shot at the presidency regardless. I just think we all have to reconcile: young dem and blue collar dem voters want socialism/progress, black dem voters want [[Biden]], and white collar/older white voters want progress, but not too much. Just a helluva split for a coalition party.
My takeaway following South Carolina is that the numbers still look very good for Sanders and that Biden, despite his win, has to be very nervous. The effort that went into picking up South Carolina was huge, but it also might be impossible to recreate. Biden desperately needs a lot of post-SC momentum just to make a dent into Sanders' potential gains on Super Tuesday. I don't think he's going to get them outside of a few states that may not make much of a difference. Biden's big goals in the next three days are running up Texas and trying to meet the 15% in California, IMO.
As for Sanders, he desperately needs to maintain his Super Tuesday polling leads in order to keep the dream of a majority of delegates alive. If he can maintain that 10 pt Texas lead and squash Biden's momentum, it'll be great for him. However, he's also got to challenge the threat that is Warren's persistence in the race. Specifically, he needs to win in Mass. and get her below 15% in California. Both of these would be huge. That said, we're already seeing Sanders' strategy, which is not overfocusing on any single day, but using that cash flow to work on a lot of future states, too. I worry that he's underestimating the threat of a contested convention, but this is still likely smart in the long run.
As for the other candidates, I already see it as a two-person race with a Bloomberg wild card. Super Tuesday will be their last day to surprise, but even a surprise isn't going to help their campaigns. It'd be healthier for the race and the party for them to drop, but they're all-but-certain to fight to their last.
As for Sanders, he desperately needs to maintain his Super Tuesday polling leads in order to keep the dream of a majority of delegates alive. If he can maintain that 10 pt Texas lead and squash Biden's momentum, it'll be great for him. However, he's also got to challenge the threat that is Warren's persistence in the race. Specifically, he needs to win in Mass. and get her below 15% in California. Both of these would be huge. That said, we're already seeing Sanders' strategy, which is not overfocusing on any single day, but using that cash flow to work on a lot of future states, too. I worry that he's underestimating the threat of a contested convention, but this is still likely smart in the long run.
As for the other candidates, I already see it as a two-person race with a Bloomberg wild card. Super Tuesday will be their last day to surprise, but even a surprise isn't going to help their campaigns. It'd be healthier for the race and the party for them to drop, but they're all-but-certain to fight to their last.
I don't think this take is accurate at all. The "progressive" vote (Sanders + Warren) is way smaller than the moderate bloc (Biden/Amy/Pete/Bloomberg/Steyer) by a substantial margin.
Your take also seems to be extremely dismissive of the concerns of black voters. There are a LOT of reasons to reject sanders this year among that group just as they did in 2016 without the reasoning being that they "want biden."
Everything I've read online on here and social media has convinced me that Biden/Pete/Warren supporters would support Bernie en masse in a general election.
Everything I've read also has convinced me this wouldn't be the case with Bernie's fanbase, and that is disappointing.
Everything I've read also has convinced me this wouldn't be the case with Bernie's fanbase, and that is disappointing.
I'm still fine with Warren staying in through Super Tuesday. She raised the second most money of any candidate in February and for all intents and purposes Biden's actual campaign was failing. S.C. was always going to be a bad state for her so I can see why she'd build up for ST and see how things fell before making a decision. Her colossal debate performance hit at the most inopportune time unfortunately.
Super Tuesday coming so quickly after South Carolina is why everyone's staying in. Everything's already set up and ready to go. Plus there's the added wrinkle that shows we still may end up with no one having a majority.
Super Tuesday coming so quickly after South Carolina is why everyone's staying in. Everything's already set up and ready to go. Plus there's the added wrinkle that shows we still may end up with no one having a majority.
Yes. The evil centrist establishment Democrats like us would fall in line and vote for Bernie.
I've seen a few Biden supporters that are kinda against Bernie but would largely fold. I don't see like any Pete supporters online. Warren supporters largely come across as blue no matter who but kinda fed up with Bernie supporter shit. I hope that doesn't push some of them away but they're probably at least a bit pragmatic and hate Trump too much.
Agreed. Warren's whole focus needs to be on MA , and Cali and she needs to try and win a state that Obama had that Trump then won in 2016. Her idea of being the "third way" requires her to be third in some sort of metric.
Also maybe we don't hear about it because we're observers but she should fire whoever is in charge of AA outreach or at least re-assign them. I don't know if it's because these campaigns let their people "unionize" but shit I am surprised at the lack of firings overall after these losses. Campaign staff either gets it done or gets out the way.
Unionization would be among the rank and file, not management making strategic decisions.
Yep, I really don't fuck with Bernie Bros supporters and by default Bernie. I do like Bernie's policies but they seem shallow. However if he gets the nomination I just hate Trump
Then there is no excuse especially for Warren. It's not like her staff are party insiders who are bringing in the big donors. I would think she would change strategy to small shops looking to make a name or in Biden's case hire people specifically for a demographic/state outreach.
Isn't it that already? I can't imagine that Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico would be big D trifectas without their giant hispanic populations. They've already gone blue three times in a row and judging from how fascist the republican party is becoming we can probably expect them to stay blue for the next 20-30 years when Gen X and Millenials hispanics are running the those states. Arizona Republicans must be having interesting conversations behind the scenes these days. I'd love to be a fly on one of their walls on election night if Kelly wins the senate seat.
Irony is more important than children in cages and fighting climate change.
Dave Weigel on Twitter
“Specifically, NBC/Marist was the poll that initially found a single-digit race in SC, Biden up just 15 points with black voters. He won black voters by 44 points. https://t.co/9XwgGWwrkb”
twitter.com
He had a good debate and a huge win in SC. Isn't that what Bill Clinton did to turn his primary around?
For pre-SC polls, these definitely have Biden a lot higher than others in both states.
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