I mean at this point the number of people with it in CA are under 0.00001%
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I mean at this point the number of people with it in CA are under 0.00001%
I think the "scary socialism" attacks Bernie allowed to land better thanks to his Castro comments are in part at fault for what's happening right now.
Whatever small momentum he had with moderates (due to the "coalescing around the nominee" effect) is completely gone I think.
Whatever small momentum he had with moderates (due to the "coalescing around the nominee" effect) is completely gone I think.
It's early, but you are lying if you are saying you expected these results for Biden. He's overperforming everywhere in South Carolina
Yeah this is definitely Biden's Nevada in terms of winning by 25+ points. And SC has more delegates as well to award. Feels like that Clyburn endorsement had a strong impact judging by the exit polls.
Ed O'Keefe @edokeefeUPDATE per the @CBSNews decision desk: @BernieSanders is running in second place currently. @AmyKlobuchar, @EWarren, @PeteButtigieg, and @TulsiGabbard are not on pace to win delegates in South Carolina.
8:12 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Clyburns endorsement made a huge difference for sure, but I think his endorsement is going to have more reverberations in coming states after super tuesday. He all but said "I am helping run your campaign if you want my endorsement". His ability for fundraising and grassroots organization is going to matter a lot, not sure how much its going to help for super tuesday, but if he comes out of this with sander only with a 150 delegate lead over him that can make a ton of difference going forward, especially as more candidates drop out.
Progressivism is a modulation of capitalism. Socialism, democratic or otherwise, is a break from it. Bernie is not running on socialist policy, but basically nobody in Washington has the record and positions to suggest their presidency would be a continuation of Sanders'.
Damn that was a good point made on MSNBC. Biden should be calling Kamala Harris right now. Not sure she would want to endorse a sure loser in CA, but maybe in exchange for vp it's something she would consider. He has to find a way to get to 15% with essentially 0$ and no operation in CA. That might be one way to do it.
So, a legitimate question for Sander's supporters.
Bernie has talked about how he'll bring out millions and millions of young people to vote and bring about his revolution. In 3 of the 4 states that have voted so far, youth turnout is down from 2016 (and also down from 2008). The exception is Iowa. So, all the talk of we're going to replace the college educated white suburban vote we'd get with Biden with this youth oriented Bernie coalition....doesn't that worry you at all? (Again I'm not being a bish here, legitimately asking.) If the guy's whole electoral argument is "I'll bring in the new voters and the youth" and he's doing neither while getting blown the fuck out among everyone 45+...there's no red flag there?
Bernie has talked about how he'll bring out millions and millions of young people to vote and bring about his revolution. In 3 of the 4 states that have voted so far, youth turnout is down from 2016 (and also down from 2008). The exception is Iowa. So, all the talk of we're going to replace the college educated white suburban vote we'd get with Biden with this youth oriented Bernie coalition....doesn't that worry you at all? (Again I'm not being a bish here, legitimately asking.) If the guy's whole electoral argument is "I'll bring in the new voters and the youth" and he's doing neither while getting blown the fuck out among everyone 45+...there's no red flag there?
I feel like for weeks we've all talked about SC being Biden's firewall and where he would pick up delegates in spite of the Luigi plan no longer working.
Like I get the media and party orthodoxy acting like this is a surprise to build up hype but it's not surprising
Honestly, that he won the state as easily as he did could very well point to the Luigi plan still being on.
Polling had Bernie close to even in SC a week ago, this is surprising
The margin is surprising. Him winning is not.
But Biden dominating this much among the AA vote is a bit surprising.
2.5 million people have already had their ballots processed in CA. Millions more are in transit right now. Why would she do that.
He can try, but I would be really surprised she endorses anyone, much less before super tuesday. She might have won the state of california but she is not a monolith or household name. She is too new on the national stage to have that kind of pull which is in part why her campaign sputtered. Furthermore I would be surprised any candidate announced a VP, some of them have to know we are heading for a contested convention which means picking a potential VP candidate is best done closer to it as a means of showing coalition building when the delegates come together to pick the actual candidate.
The average I believe was 9 points, and the last set of polls were showing big Biden margins. The only surprising thing is the margin.
If you have been watching 538 over the last week, you saw a sudden Biden surge in SC, and often this upward momentum will continue through election day especially if people are deciding late. The same was apparent with Bernie in NV, if I recall correctly. So although somewhat surprising, by no means is it a complete shock.
Without actually answering the question, as Nate Silver has pointed out tonight even, exit polls often underestimate youth turnout so it'll be a while before we actually know what the makeup for any electorate is.
Also one other potential covet about the potential margin Biden is winning.. He is approaching 50%. If he gets above that it will make him the first candidate to get a clear majority of votes in any of the first 4 states. Bernie didn't even do that in Nevada where he was strongest.
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Biden's got some ground to make up for Super Tuesday -- especially in Texas, if Data for Progress is right.
But if it follows the trend of the last three states, it won't be significantly higher even if it rises, which returns us to Adam's question: if the youth turnout is not as massive as Sanders people predict, and he alienates other parts of our coalition, what happens?
Yeah his number has ticked up a bit in the NYT projection of the final vote but it's not at 50% (yet)
Ya, I admit it's hard to answer because it's completely theoretical. Exit polls aren't good and all those caveats.
It's easy to put up those sorts of numbers when you refuse to test anybody (nationally, the CDC has to date performed 472 tests: 472 for the whole of the United States).
I mean, this kind of comes down to -- do you trust the polls or not?
Biden is over performing the polls so far, even the so-far-accurate DFP pollster. Considering how accurate theyve been so far, I'm still surprised about how they believed the African American percentage of the electorate in SC was gonna be somewhere in the 30s.
They also might have overshot Sanders' final vote tally, but theres still a lot of votes left, so we'll see.
They also might have overshot Sanders' final vote tally, but theres still a lot of votes left, so we'll see.
To me it comes down to who do I trust more: Young people who aren't turning out, or our 2018 coalition who clearly, clearly does and did.
It's in the wild, though. The confirmed amount cases may be low but we know it's already slipped through the cracks.
Like, rallies would be a great vector for transmission for the crowds. The candidates can limit their exposure by cutting down on personal glad handing, at least.
Never mind if it's still around for the convention.
I expect he is going win North Carolina at this point, I think he will be competitive in Texas too now. At this point I think there is more then a good expectation he is getting shut out in California which is big problem, but he needs to be competitive in all the rest of the states and at least be viable, he does that, it becomes a 2 person race at that point I think and the rest of the race is going to be about who can gain the vote share of the people who were not voting for either candidate before.
Political events in general are going to suck. I really wish more states had the mail in system for voting so this wouldn't be an actual issue come voting time.
I mean, at least with Election Day you're not in a crowded area with hundreds of people. Though if one of the polls workers is affected then it doesn't matter. But that can be mitigated by some hardline stay at home policy.
I think you mean Office of the President of the United States Nancy Pelosi 2021.
The media and shit makes such drastic 180.
2-3 weeks ago every media outlet basically claimed Biden's campaign flopped after Iowa and NH, which were actually toss ups. SC was never in competition, so how does a better performance in a state Everyone knew he would win somehow now shift the entire narrative?
the whole fucking media landscape is a joke and they sensationalize absolutely everything.
the story still stands that Biden bombed hard in two states, underperformed in one, and now better in SC. How the fuck is he now the comeback king?
2-3 weeks ago every media outlet basically claimed Biden's campaign flopped after Iowa and NH, which were actually toss ups. SC was never in competition, so how does a better performance in a state Everyone knew he would win somehow now shift the entire narrative?
the whole fucking media landscape is a joke and they sensationalize absolutely everything.
the story still stands that Biden bombed hard in two states, underperformed in one, and now better in SC. How the fuck is he now the comeback king?
Steve Kornacki@SteveKornacki
8:33 PM - Feb 29, 2020
8:31 PM - Feb 29, 2020
SC exit poll
Under 45 (29% of electorate)
Sanders 34%
Biden 33%
Warren 11%
Buttigieg 9%
Steyer 9%
45+ (71% of electorate)
Biden 59%
Sanders 13%
Steyer 12%
Buttigieg 6%
Warren 4%
Under 45 (29% of electorate)
Sanders 34%
Biden 33%
Warren 11%
Buttigieg 9%
Steyer 9%
45+ (71% of electorate)
Biden 59%
Sanders 13%
Steyer 12%
Buttigieg 6%
Warren 4%
8:33 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Steve Kornacki@SteveKornackiUpdated exit poll, with more interviews conducted has African Americans at 57% of the SC Dem electorate, voting:
Biden 64%
Sanders 15%
Steyer 13%
Biden 64%
Sanders 15%
Steyer 13%
8:31 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Seriously, he'd have a lay-up if he didn't anti-charisma things up.
Not a Bernie supporter here per say (I said I would be one if he wins SC but he didn't) but here is my take:
First of all every single candidate on this list worries me a ton for the GE. Everyone has huge holes from Biden to Bernie to Bloomberg. I think all of them have weaknesses that can be exploited in the GE that could result in a loss.
However, of these 3 I genuinely do believe Sanders has the best shot of beating Trump and here is why:
*It's a much different case in the primary when you are lacking endorsements of your rivals versus the GE when you have endorsement from the whole party. Imagine the swing if Bernie wins the nomination and Obama/Biden/Pelosi etc. come out to support him. The Democratic party isn't going to not back Bernie in the GE, they hate Trump more than they hate Sanders (most of them anyway).
*I do also feel that many people are in the "most of these candidates are fine, just get me a candidate so that I can vote against Trump." There is a voter choice paralysis effect going on here that doesn't get talked about enough. I feel like turnout would improve in the GE once we have a single candidate and Bernie is still the most likely to improve turnout (at least over Biden and Bloomberg).
*On the old voters.. Bernie's favorablities are still fine. Just like you said for 2008, even though you preferred Clinton you were fine with Obama. I think many old folks are like that in that they would prefer Biden but would be ok with Sanders in the GE. Right now when an alternative exists the older voters will vote for them (whether it be Buttiegeg/Klob/Biden etc.). The Democratic old black voters would still rather vote for Sanders than Trump. And again, the calculus changes a lot when politicians like Clyburn and Obama are in support of Sanders in the GE.
*In the end, states like South Carolina matter very little in the GE. It's the 3 states of PA/MI/WI that has been the whole story. I would wait for Sanders performance in those states before making sweeping comments about Sanders chances in the GE. And again, let's say if Biden narrowly wins over Sanders in PA... that doesn't really mean that those same PA Democratic Biden voters won't also vote for Sanders in the GE. Remember that Biden's 2nd choice is mostly Sanders.
*Bernie has been working over time spreading his rallies and campaigning in the states. No doubt he has the best ground games and actual physical presence of the candidates. Right now he is in VA doing a rally, was in MA yesterday and NC before. You know he will be working his ass off campaigning in MI/WI/PA. I judge based on actions not words, Bernie is simply a far, far better campaigner than Biden.
*While it doesn't matter that much... I like Bernie against Trump on a debate stage far more than either Biden or Bloomberg.
IMO the biggest issue isn't who we actually pick as the nominee... it's if the Democratic party sabotages itself at the convention. If Bernie loses in delegates fair and square then so be it. If he has a comfortable plurality but gets denied the nomination then that's 100% election losing right there.
I am not surprised. I am pretty sure AA in SC are much more aligned with a moderate Biden than a progressive like Bernie. Plus he's been spending money there for a while.
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