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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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From Nate Silver:
" From the gender breakdown in exit polls, you can infer an approximate topline of Biden 44-45, Sanders 21-22, Steyer ~12, Buttigieg ~9, Warren ~8. "
" From the gender breakdown in exit polls, you can infer an approximate topline of Biden 44-45, Sanders 21-22, Steyer ~12, Buttigieg ~9, Warren ~8. "
I think Shinra needs to come back in this thread and publicly apologize to Emerson.
Interesting, Bernie and Tulsi are the only candidates who did better among men than women. Bernie got 27% of the male vote, but only 17% of the female vote. I'm guessing that's probably because of his performance among older black voters who tend to skew female.
Alex Seitz-Wald @aseitzwald
Terry McAuliffe endorses Joe Biden on CNN: "I'm going all in for Joe Biden."
Terry McAuliffe, moments after endorsing Biden, calls on other candidates to drop out BEFORE Super Tuesday: "If you do not have a pathway... I'm hoping some of the candidates tomorrow get out."
7:16 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Terry McAuliffe endorses Joe Biden on CNN: "I'm going all in for Joe Biden."
Terry McAuliffe, moments after endorsing Biden, calls on other candidates to drop out BEFORE Super Tuesday: "If you do not have a pathway... I'm hoping some of the candidates tomorrow get out."
7:16 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Ohio, Pennsylvania, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, possibly some of the flyover states, West Virginia, Indiana, etc.
Kyle Kondik @kkondikMedia boost that Biden is going to get in the next couple of days is more valuable than ads or, especially, ground game stuff. Finishing first in all the Southern states is in play (although certainly not guaranteed). But Sanders is still in great shape in CA & some other states
7:20 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Something Nate just said:
Biden won every ideological group (Very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate and conservative), he only lost 1st time voters by 1 point, and he won the late deciding voters by pretty large margins.
Biden won every ideological group (Very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate and conservative), he only lost 1st time voters by 1 point, and he won the late deciding voters by pretty large margins.
None of those states are very demographically viable for him, which is the continued problem for his candidacy! (Delaware and DC are the obvious exceptions lol).
His demos are the oldest voters and rural black voters and southern black voters. Like Hillary, he's going to do worse with northern black voters, which is going to be a huge issue for him in OH, PA, MD, and especially CT. Maaaaaybe the Catholic vote saves him in RI -- but RI is also super urban, which plays to Bernie's strengths.
That take is asinine, and makes no sense. I'm not even entirely sure what the person is saying.
It's time for the bottom feeders to drop so Warren can be more competitive. Sorry Klob, sorry Steyer, but GTFO.
If the field is down to fewer than the current cluster fuck of candidates, I do not see Bernie winning Ohio. I could totally be wrong, but there really is no huge Bernie movement anywhere I can see. There is also not a huge Latinx population for Bernie to tap into in Ohio, for example. I think this result shows, yet again, that there are massive holes in Bernie's coalition. The press is going to be epic for Biden over the next few days. People love a comback story. And, I still think Bernie is the favorite, but I think people acting like Biden is 100% done is as silly as people saying Bernie is `100% the nominee.
I think we might have a bit of a race.
Dave Wasserman @RedistrictWow: Biden between 66%-75% in first few black counties reporting votes, w/ Sanders well under 15% in single digits.
If this persists, it's a game-changer in the race overall.
7:27 PM - Feb 29, 2020 · Gaithersburg, MD
Biden was born in Scranton, PA. Frequently claims it as his hometown and placed his campaign headquarters in Philadelphia. He's well known and reasonably well liked in the state. Also noteworthy is that the Philadelphia media market includes pretty much all of Delaware.
I'm gonna let you live this fantasy until the polls close on Tuesday.
I've been saying this and now MSNBC is starting to get it. The entire game is CA. Sanders can survive large margin loses in southern states this time around if he's the only viable candidate in CA. Mistake for all these campaigns not putting more effort in CA.
I mean it's not a fantasy I'm living in. I'm literally agreeing that Bernie is the most likely to be the nominee. He's going to get a massive delegate haul out of California. There's no doubt about that. Can I construct a potentiality where Biden could narrow that gap by winning huge in places like Florida? Absolutely. They're not likely, but it's not impossible. You asked for some non southern states I thought he could win, I suggested some. lol
I will say, I think if Bernie's entire margin of victory comes out of California....that's not a great argument for his candidacy, but that's not really important.
While bernie is definitely the frontrunner this is looking to be far closer than a few weeks ago and we are definitely headed for a brokered convention
Really the whole thing will come down to how bad the margins are in CA
Really the whole thing will come down to how bad the margins are in CA
How many super delegates does Biden have.
Well unless he wins a majority at the convention the super delegates can give it to Biden regardless.
Well unless he wins a majority at the convention the super delegates can give it to Biden regardless.
If he rolls into the convention with a weak plurality based off a certain distribution in one state and get dumpstered almost everywhere else afterwards, the supers are gonna dunk him and they would be 100% right to do so.
I finally feel like I have some power in a National Election, lol.
I mean most of Hillary's margins in 2016 came out of states that didn't matter in the GE. Who cares?
How is the expected result a game-changer?
Oldie but a goodie.
in what world is Bernie going to get "dumpstered" almost everywhere else
In a theoretical situation in which Bernie loses Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, (maybe even Texas)...I think there's a concern there. Anyway, this is all hypothetical
Pete is currently winning a county! YALL ITS HAPPENING
This is what I don't get. How does Biden doing well in SC bode well for the GE? Unless you are galaxy brained enough to think that Biden can help in flipping the Senate race in that state against Lindsay Graham.
And it's not like Sanders is going to get dumpstered in the rest of the states, he is going to be consistently finishing 1st and 2nd place like he has been doing. Imagine picking a candidate that is non viable in certain swing states in a primary.
Jessica Taylor @JessicaTaylorAlso, a real possibility that Steyer gets ZERO delegates out of tonight after holding the most events in SC and spending $24 million on ads alone. He's not doing well anywhere else -- this was where he's all in. There's no path for him forward.
7:30 PM - Feb 29, 2020
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