"It's not ebola or SARS."
isn't it... significantly worse than both ebola and sars already?
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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isn't it... significantly worse than both ebola and sars already?
"It's not ebola or SARS."
No shit it's not ebola. Ebola was passed by blood contact. What this is, is a 10-20x deadlier flu.
Couple things:
1) Hillary literally said Obama might be assassinated in the 2008 primary as late as June. She still ended up throwing her weight behind him and he ended up giving her one of the most important spots in his administation. And unlike Bernie and Warren, they never had a relationship as close as Bernie and Warren's has been in the past. I think both of them realize this is a primary and they're both looking to win. And Bernie is the clear frontrunner, there's really no point in attacking anyone else. Otherwise you're just going to let his base grow.
2) Going off of that, you say Warren should back off because she has no shot at winning the nomination. At this point in 2016, Bernie was in the same boat. 2016 was over after Super Tuesday, despite what the media narrative said. Yet Bernie stayed in, so I see no reason for him to drop out. And as others have said, the longer Warren stays in, the more she's really taking away more moderate votes and honestly helping Bernie. If Warren drops, along with a lot of the moderate candidates, that leaves open the possibility of the moderate vote coalascing around one candidate and defeating him. So it's good for Bernie if she keeps going.
But I have a question, and I don't mean for this to be insulting. Is this the first primary you've closely paid attention to? Becauses you keep saying Warren's attacks on Bernie instead of falling in line behind him are evidence that she doesn't actually have a friendship with him and she doesn't support him. And I can see how you'd think that if this was your first real look at this process. But primaries get ugly, people attack each other hard. This is just how politics are. And then once it's done, 95% of the time it's water under the bridge and things go back to normal afterward. If two people have prior relationships before a primary, I'd weigh that much more heavily in judging how they actually feel about each other than how they act in the primary. So again, this belief of yours that Warren has turned against Sanders because of this last month, ignoring their prior decade together, speaks more to your naivete than any real evidence
I believe the term epidemiologists use is deadliness. Because COVID-19 is more transmissible, more likely to produce severe symptoms, and yet still fairly lethal, it is considered deadlier than those diseases.
I think you'll see older black voters turn out; they've typically been a reliable voting bloc, especially black women, who are really the core of the party, and BY FAR the most reliable Dem voters. And I think you'll see us gain back some of what we lost in 2016 by nominating Hillary- more under-35 black and brown voters. Bernie does very well with that demo. But we'll see. I tend to agree about Florida. Lots of Cubans are still very angry that their plantations were taken by Castro, and that whole narrative will probably kill Bernie's chances there.
Yeah, if this becomes as infectious as the annual flu we're looking at millions of fatalities.
"It's not ebola or SARS."
I have the great fortune of listening to right wing talk radio all day, this is almost ALL they have been talking about for the past few days. It's the Democrats and fake news looking for the next excuse to attempt to bring down Trump because the Russia hoax failed, the Ukraine hoax failed, now they're making up this Coronavirus thing.
Recent debates give emboldened Bernie Sanders electability edge: POLL
Sen. Bernie Sanders is the strongest contender among an engaged Democratic base of debate watchers, to defeat Trump in November, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
abcnews.go.com
Man, the expectations bar on this is being set so fucking low. They're really locking themselves into a big reality check. You don't have to shave all that many points off of Republican turnout to produce a blowout.
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
At this point, any of the top candidates can beat Trump. Everything he could have used as a crutch is gone.
Ok, maybe not Steyer and Bloomberg. But the rest definitely can, even Pete.
So I'm just gonna vote Warren and hope for the best. If Bernie wins, cool, but if he doesn't deliver, the post-Trump "moderate" Republican is going to whoop his ass.
Ok, maybe not Steyer and Bloomberg. But the rest definitely can, even Pete.
So I'm just gonna vote Warren and hope for the best. If Bernie wins, cool, but if he doesn't deliver, the post-Trump "moderate" Republican is going to whoop his ass.
This is giving me Iranian Health Minister "Everything is Fine" vibes
OMG.
First, I've read here that a dry cough is one of the main symptoms. Second, he coughed into his hand, used that hand to hold the kids water bottle, drank from her water bottle, gave it back to her, and she drank from it. Even *if* he only has a cold, what in the hell is he thinking?
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The thing about this virus is if it takes off it will overwhelm our medical system. The Republican party won't be able to "fake news" or "it's the Democrats!" themselves out of the situation.
1. 2008 is completely irrelevant to this conversation. hillary and obama were the top 2 fighting for the nomination. we're talking about a race where warren is in a distant 4th. we're talking about whether warren supports sanders or biden when she drops out or if it came to a contested convention.
if your argument is "oh, warren's still got a great chance to win" when why even engage in this conversation. it's built on the assumption that warren doesn't have a chance to win. if you disagree, don't pretend you care about anything else i said. we're having two different discussions and you're not even attempting to engage with me.
2. again, 2016 is completely different. Sanders was in the #2 spot. regardless of whether he had a chance of winning the nomination, he had a huge amount of potential to carry a movement into the convention and change party policy. warren has no such goals, no such potential. at best, she could go into a contested convention and play kingmaker -- which is the entire fucking point of this conversation. whether she's aiming to support biden or sanders.
if your argument is that her only goal is to build more leverage for going into a contested convention, that just leads to the same discussion. why she's targeting sanders only and not biden. if leverage was her goal, she wouldn't just be targeting the frontrunner. she'd be going after #2, too.
As for the rest, dude, come on. Don't engage in a serious conversation, mostly ignore the context of the conversation -- that Warren's pretty much out of the race at this point -- and then insinuate I just have no fucking idea what I'm talking about because you're confident that you know how politics work and i don't. give me a break. i shouldn't have to explain my background to justify having a political argument because you disagree with my point of view.
Yeah, the deaths are one thing. Having all the hospitals beds in the country packed with pneumonia patients is the actual worst-case scenario.
Mitigation extends the timeline so we don't get a spike that overwhelms hospitals' capacity, but we have no idea how effective that will be, and no idea how much this is already circulating in the community here because we've done so little broad-scale testing.
I think you mean tens of thousands. 2.2% of a million is 22,000. 2.2 being the mortality rate so far with Covid-19. By his math, 20 million people with flu, that's 440,000 deaths in the US alone. Of course that's a a huge theoretical high number, but it's huge nonetheless.
Yes to this one, but if he has a cold or flu he just gave it to the kid!
Rush Limbaugh debates himself: Ebola vs. Coronavirus
Rush Limbaugh, recipient of the Medal of Freedom, had a much different perspective on Ebola during 2014 than he has for coronavirus in 2020.for more:https://...
www.youtube.com
Can not believe this piece of shit has a medal of freedom.
The floor for a successful campaign has to be about 30%. Any less than that and it's probably DOA as far as reaching a majority goes.
I heard a similar argument from sister back in 2016 about Hillary. Even being a Bernie bro I had to push back at her about how that's just sexist garbage and I reminded her of how horrible Bush was. It's such a dumb argument considering how bugfuck crazy we men have been all throughout history. If anything we're the ones who hold a monopoly on being emotional and irrational.
Damn, that looks right proper.
I was watching the damage report and supposedly the fatality rate among older people can go as high as 15%. If that's true that would make it 150 times more deadly than the flu. Thousands have already died and the virus hasn't even infected 100k people. If millions get infected the world should be planning for tens of thousands of deaths instead. We're going to have a wild year, aren't we?
Recent debates give emboldened Bernie Sanders electability edge: POLL
Sen. Bernie Sanders is the strongest contender among an engaged Democratic base of debate watchers, to defeat Trump in November, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.
OMG it's happening
Looking at the debate graphs makes me laugh because it reminds me of something I heard just recently from an elderly family member. She is hard of hearing, 88 years old and only speaks Spanish, but she kept asking me why the moderators, candidates and audience kept interrupting or yelling at Bernie lol. Even she could see, hear and feel the bias.
Only thing I wonder about now is what she'd want for those delegates. Being VP and potentially giving her seat to a Republican does not seem like something she'd want.
No, most people's opinions of Bernie and Warren's relationship is based on their years-long relationship in the Senate and their shared ideological/progressive policy goals. If you think it's based entirely on debate stage appearances and rumors of Warren being on Bernie's VP shortlist, that says more about what you've been paying (or not paying) attention to than anyone else.
Because Texas, California, and Mass are all super expensive media markets, CA and MA in particular are some of her most viable states for winning delegates (potentially the only states where she'll place second), and losing in MA would be especially embarrassing for her campaign. She has no shot in places like Tennessee and Arkansas, while Biden does (and Bloomberg too). Biden also has so little money to play with that his campaign needs to stretch their dollars differently than Warren's does.
lol, candidates don't pivot to 'post-dropout plans' in a debate, they make a case for themselves because they still want to be president! I think you're greatly overestimating the 5D chess tactics here. Everyone on that stage still thinks they can pull a rabbit out of their hat even if the math works in almost no one's favor other than Bernie, maybe Biden, maybe Bloomberg. It's the same phenomenon we saw on the GOP side in 2016: even through Trump was beginning to run away with the nomination, none of the 'moderates' wanted to drop out and coalesce around a single anti-Trump alternative because they all believed they had a shot at it. John Kasich was the last Republican to drop out despite having only won a single state.
It takes a certain amount of ego to run for president in the first place and that ego + a level of sunk-cost delusion prevents people from dropping out until they absolutely have to (i.e. when the money dries up).
I don't know how the constant refrains of "I like Bernie, we're friends" or being the only non-Bernie candidate pushing for Medicare for All (to her detriment) could be construed as anything but obvious signs of supporting Bernie eventually. And I don't think "behind the scenes politicking" is really the thing that Warren is known for... she was more a pain in the ass to the Obama administration than Bernie, and hasn't exactly built a reputation of building bipartisan deals in the Senate.
Fox News-loving man from Pennsylvania = What the hell do you mean with all this liberal "thinking" business?
Even if he wasn't in the DC studio I suspect he's out there contaminating some PA studio?
...and yeah, possibly having COVID and keeping your kid on your lap. WTF
Not just the medical system, basic human to human interaction will slow and basic commercial interactions will be facing a standstill. Dudes behind the register at X,Y,Z store isn't going show up for work, Ubers etc won't either. The panic around it is arguably more dangerous than the virus
I don't understand how people can listen to that stuff, and apparently for hours daily with him, Hannity, Judge Judy etc. The non-stop lies and hate, you'd think it would be tiring. And how do people not realize they are being grifted by carnival barkers? Even without a comparison video like that, it's so obvious.Rush Limbaugh debates himself: Ebola vs. Coronavirus
Rush Limbaugh, recipient of the Medal of Freedom, had a much different perspective on Ebola during 2014 than he has for coronavirus in 2020.for more:https://...
Can not believe this piece of shit has a medal of freedom.
Alright, I'm not gonna bring this up further, I'll just drop it. I'll just end by again saying Warren and Bernie have a decades long friendship, and Warren and Biden have a decades long animosity. So I'm going to weigh that more heavily than fighting that happened between primary rivals for a month.
I don't know if I'd classify the panic as more dangerous, but it will certainly have a ton of negative downstream effects.
I just hope that the public health folks who think the virus will infect most of the world's population (due to its similarity to the common cold) and become a seasonal issue are flat out wrong.
They want the lies. It's everyone else who won't tell the truth.
That's a totally wrong way to compare the numbers.
I saw this posted in the OT recently. The CFR from China is about 2%, which imo may be a small fraction higher than it actually is, because I assume there are tons of people who never got tested and then recovered. That compares to about 0.1% for flu. The distribution of deaths skews heavily towards older and those with pre-existing conditions like heart disease, diabetes, etc., so at 80+ years old it's 14.8%, while at 40-49 it's 0.4%.
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China
www.worldometers.info
I don't know the numbers on this so I genuinely don't know, but are older black voters a reliable voting bloc for Dems in the general because they'll just vote Dem no matter what? Or are they reliable voters in the general because the nominee is typically someone who had already won their support in the primary already? Obama, Gore, and both Clintons won with older black voters in their primaries. Is it a problem for Bernie in November if he wins the nomination without winning over 50+ black voters first? I don't know.
I don't think MA is going to give her seat to a Republican, but I also don't think a Sanders/Warren ticket is viable. Is Secretary of Education an upgrade from Senator?
Charlie Baker would get to fill the seat with a Republican first, and I don't trust this state not to fuck it up in a special election. Remember this is the same place that, in the wake of Obama's election and Ted Kennedy's death, filled Kennedy's seat with Scott Brown.
I actually just realized that if a Bernie/Warren ticket won in November, that would immediately put us at -2 seats in the Senate -_-
This is helpful information.That's a totally wrong way to compare the numbers.
I saw this posted in the OT recently. The CFR from China is about 2%, which imo may be a small fraction higher than it actually is, because I assume there are tons of people who never got tested and then recovered. That compares to about 0.1% for flu. The distribution of deaths skews heavily towards older and those with pre-existing conditions like heart disease, diabetes, etc., so at 80+ years old it's 14.8%, while at 40-49 it's 0.4%.
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China
Thanks
I kinda doubt it and it doesn't seem like her wheelhouse exactly. I figure she'd want to do something more closely related to the banking sector.
This is a nice visual, but it's outdated already. An update from WaPo last night now shows over 80,000 cases worldwide (most in China) and over 2800 deaths. That comes out to a bit higher than the advertised "2%" death rate, but I guess it's always in flux.
There are already over 80k cases, so unless this thing miraculously stops in its tracks tomorrow, it will affect way more than 100k.
The reason you don't know anyone with it is because 95% of the cases are in China (I assume you don't have many acquaintances there). How bad this gets depends on how well it is contained. The media may be overdoing it, but this is already pretty bad and could get a lot worse very quickly.
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Fox News polls take top priority over you know, a virus? Then again he "handed" everything off to Pence
1. i brought up their friendliness on the debates and the VP shortlist because I see them as tangible points worth acknowledging as part of this nomination process, because they're parts of this campaign and so provide insight into both of their campaigns. i don't disagree that they're friends in the senate. i just think their campaigns say much more about their primary plans.
2. Sure, she and her superpac aren't going to target tennessee and arkansas, but she's ~15% in probably what... 8, 9 states? all 14 might not make sense, but just 3 is crazy, especially when the superpac has so much money to throw around. biden's pac knows a little money can go a long way. it's stunning that warren's isn't even doing that much. i really think this is an important point.
3. the debate is just a visible example of what a candidate is trying to do. and yes, candidates absolutely use debates to showcase their pivots. debates leave lasting impressions. sure, it could be less important than i'm guessing, but it's not -nothing-. it's still something. 2016 is a good example, because the republicans actually did start dropping out once they saw their chances reach levels of warren's -- mostly after losing big contests, of course. like super tuesday should be for warren/buttigieg/klob/steyer.
i jsut don't see warren being one of those people to say "full steam ahead" with as much as we know about the upcoming states. maybe warren does believe she just needs to survive super tuesday and then she can push to be a top choice at a contested convention even without more delegates than sanders and biden. that just seems like such a disaster in waiting, though. but maybe i've given warren too much credit?
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