US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.

SolarPowered · Feb 28, 2020

Volimar said:
Even Hillary was kid gloves in some respects.

Damn

Bernie was all about that rebel life lol.

i like big butts said:
Does anyone honestly believe Biden can survive 8 more months of campaigning.

What the fuck is this? God, I dread a GE between Biden and Trump. It'd be like having to watch Vic Berger videos for months on end and no other content.

Kaitos said:
DKE has put out their initial Senate ratings, I agree with all of them -- they have good write ups on each explaining their reasoning:

Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020

Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of Senate race ratings for the 2020 election cycle. Republicans currently hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin, meaning Democrats would need to pick up a net of three seats to gain control of the...

www.dailykos.com

Likely D:

MN SEN (Smith)
NH SEN (Shaheen)

Lean D:

CO SEN (Gardner) - FLIP
MI SEN (Peters)

Tossup:

AZ SEN (McSally)

Lean R:

NC SEN A (Perdue)
NC SEN B (Loeffler)
ME SEN (Collins)
NC SEN (Tillis)

Likely R:

AL SEN (Jones) - FLIP
IA SEN (Ernst)
KS SEN (OPEN)
TX SEN (Cornyn)

Everything else is safe D or R for the incumbent party.

I would have expected Ernst, Collins and McSally all to move up one category. McSally in particular seems doubly screwed. Women tend to have to fight sexism to some degree no matter what and she's competing against a cash rich white cis gender Manstronaut. On top of that she got her seat in the skeeviest of ways. If I'm her I'd be sweating bullets.

Kaitos said:
what the fuck is Dave Wasserman's problem

I remember Joe Scarborough saying something similar while being even more disparaging of the youth. He'd been driving me nuts for months, but I finally got sick of his "latte liberal" bullshit and stopped watching. That was like six months ago. First it was Morning Joe, then Velshi and Ruhle (Ali is kinda cool sometimes, though) and just a few days ago it was Nicole Wallace's deadline. I can't stand these motherfucking pundits.

Ac30 said:
Washington stepping down after two terms was a good move to make (though being unfamiliar with American politics at the time I'm basing this off the assumption that he was competitive for third term)

That might be quite a large understatement. IIRC many people were fine with him staying on indefinitely or even assuming a monarch-like role. He may have been a slaveholder, but at least in the political regard we should be thankful we started with him as leader and not a more normal man who would have jumped at the chance to grab more power.

Autodidact · Feb 28, 2020

EntelechyFuff said:
Every time a nominally liberal white guy posts a "real talk" take like this one, I just assume his college-age sugarbaby stopped replying to his texts. 🤷‍♀️

What makes you assume Wasserman's liberal, even nominally? He's always seemed like a conservative white male douche who uses his (admittedly sound) data and analysis to justify his contempt for Democrats.

RDreamer · Feb 28, 2020

Kaitos said:
what the fuck is Dave Wasserman's problem

Takes like this are always baffling because they're supposed to make the heartland voters seem sympathetic but they really make them look fucking moronic. Having Bible morals imposed is a real political danger. Switching back to those people because someone else likes some food you don't or purchases things you don't quite understand is just fucking wacky.

It's like boy I don't want the Bible imposed on me but I'll suffer through that because the other motherfuckers are eating avocados.

Y2Kev · Feb 28, 2020

I don't even like avocado oil.

Blader · Feb 28, 2020

I don't like avocado, I don't do yoga, and I think the last shirts I bought were for like $8 at Old Navy.

RDreamer · Feb 28, 2020

Oh boy, the administration is going full Coronavirus is a media hoax:

cameron · Feb 28, 2020

Bernie Sanders holds 2-1 lead in California, poll shows

Bernie Sanders is on track to win more than half of California's delegates in the March 3 Democratic primary, a new poll says. He's boosted by majorities of Latinos, young voters, and the party's left.

www.latimes.com

Bernie Sanders: 34%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Mike Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Joe Biden: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%

Ac30 · Feb 28, 2020

RDreamer said:
Oh boy, the administration is going full Coronavirus is a media hoax:

They're really handling this in the best way possible.

Slim Action · Feb 28, 2020

cameron said:
Bernie Sanders holds 2-1 lead in California, poll shows

Bernie Sanders is on track to win more than half of California's delegates in the March 3 Democratic primary, a new poll says. He's boosted by majorities of Latinos, young voters, and the party's left.

www.latimes.com

Bernie Sanders: 34%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Mike Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Joe Biden: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%

This result would just about end the primary.

B-Dubs · Feb 28, 2020

Slim Action said:
This result would just about end the primary.

Good, it's already gone on long enough

Aaron · Feb 28, 2020

Slim Action said:
This result would just about end the primary.

Not only would Bernie win the lion's share of delegates in that instance, but the remainder would go to Warren who would absolutely team up with Sanders in the event of a brokered convention.

Blader · Feb 28, 2020

Aaron said:
Not only would Bernie win the lion's share of delegates in that instance, but the remainder would go to Warren who would absolutely team up with Sanders in the event of a brokered convention.

But how does this factor into her conspiracy plot to elevate Biden??

Arm Van Dam · Feb 28, 2020

RDreamer said:
Oh boy, the administration is going full Coronavirus is a media hoax:

The best people

cameron said:
Bernie Sanders holds 2-1 lead in California, poll shows

Bernie Sanders is on track to win more than half of California's delegates in the March 3 Democratic primary, a new poll says. He's boosted by majorities of Latinos, young voters, and the party's left.

www.latimes.com

Bernie Sanders: 34%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Mike Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Joe Biden: 8%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%

Y2Kev · Feb 28, 2020

I am not sure how coronavirus will impact his approval or if it will be enduring...

TheHunter · Feb 28, 2020

Aaron said:
Not only would Bernie win the lion's share of delegates in that instance, but the remainder would go to Warren who would absolutely team up with Sanders in the event of a brokered convention.

I was told she was for sure helping Biden.

Deleted member 13101 · Feb 28, 2020

RDreamer said:
Oh boy, the administration is going full Coronavirus is a media hoax:

Seems like their only defense against the (currently) most plausible explanation for the un-sourced case of coronavirus in California - the Trump admin's actions in bringing the quarantined citizens back from the cruise ship enabled federal workers to be exposed to it. I'm expecting them to go after the whistleblower sometime today. Meanwhile they're not allowing the CDC to test people who may have been exposed.

bluexy · Feb 28, 2020

TheHunter said:
I was told she was for sure helping Biden.

Man can't even eat his oatmeal without being dragged lol. Hey, we'll find out before too long, eh?

Sad thing is it isn't even a strong opinion. More like, you know, this is a realistic possibility people shouldn't ignore.

gcubed · Feb 28, 2020

Y2Kev said:
I am not sure how coronavirus will impact his approval or if it will be enduring...

the effects of coronavirus will impact his approval, which will be the economy grinding to a halt. How much? A small percentage, since it seems like he has a base in the upper 30s of true believers that would only strengthen their belief in him

cameron · Feb 28, 2020

TheHunter · Feb 28, 2020

gcubed said:
the effects of coronavirus will impact his approval, which will be the economy grinding to a halt. How much? A small percentage, since it seems like he has a base in the upper 30s of true believers that would only strengthen their belief in him

Blood alters must be constructed in honor of the dark lord.

cameron · Feb 28, 2020

David Wright@DavidWright_7

Over $1 billion has been spent on advertising in the presidential race since 1/1/19, per @Kantar_Media data. Michael Bloomberg alone accounts for about half that total with ~$500 million, and Tom Steyer accounts for over $200 million more. Includes TV, radio, digital.

8:47 AM - Feb 28, 2020

Deleted member 4090 · Feb 28, 2020

Aaron said:
Not only would Bernie win the lion's share of delegates in that instance, but the remainder would go to Warren who would absolutely team up with Sanders in the event of a brokered convention.

Unfortunately it will take weeks before we know whether other candidates hit viability thresholds, so the odds of a knockout blow are slim.

Aaron · Feb 28, 2020

Blader said:
But how does this factor into her conspiracy plot to elevate Biden??

shadow_shogun · Feb 28, 2020

You can tell how much he's loving this. lol

JVID · Feb 28, 2020

shadow_shogun said:
You can tell how much he's loving this. lol

Christ. Lmao.

Pomerlaw · Feb 28, 2020

shadow_shogun said:
You can tell how much he's loving this. lol

Fuck all these people

TheHunter · Feb 28, 2020

shadow_shogun said:
You can tell how much he's loving this. lol

Hopfrog · Feb 28, 2020

A normal person would also bow their head and pray when everyone else is. He just sits there. You can't look at that photo and tell me he is normal.

Aaron · Feb 28, 2020

Hopfrog said:
A normal person would also bow their head and pray when everyone else is. He just sits there. You can't look at that photo and tell me he is normal.

It's kind of stunning how, even setting aside all the things that make him a thoroughly awful human being, when he's not being actively terrible he's just being fucking odd.

I may not like Biden but he at least had to work a day in his life and can connect to the shared human experience. Trump somehow managed to avoid doing that.

acheron_xl · Feb 28, 2020

shadow_shogun said:
You can tell how much he's loving this. lol

Looks like a Jon McNaughton painting come to life.

Greigor the FellHand · Feb 28, 2020

TheHunter said:
Blood alters must be constructed in honor of the dark lord.

Imma go contact the Inquisition and request astarte assistance

TheHunter · Feb 28, 2020

Greigor the FellHand said:
Imma go contact the Inquisition and request astarte assistance

I was going more for Doom.

Wilsongt · Feb 28, 2020

The stock market would make Tom Petty proud.

Arm Van Dam · Feb 28, 2020

New MA poll from WBUR/MassInc (A/B pollster), take note of the sample size

#Massachusetts Democratic Primary Polling:
Sanders: 25% (+12)
Warren: 17% (-15)
Buttigieg: 14% (+7)
Bloomberg: 13% (+13)
Biden: 9% (-9)
Klobuchar: 6% (+5)
Steyer: 2% (+1)

MassInc / February 26, 2020 / n=426 / MOE 4.9% / Telephone (% chg w Oct 20)

theprodigy · Feb 28, 2020

Small brain: Warren is staying in to sap votes from Bernie
Galaxy brain: Warren is staying in to hold everyone else under 15% in California and effectively seal the nomination for him

bluexy · Feb 28, 2020

Arm Van Dam said:
New MA poll from WBUR/MassInc (A/B pollster), take note of the sample size

Second MA poll, this time from YouGov (B- pollster)

#Massachusetts @YouGov/@UMassPoll:
Sanders 25%
Warren 23%
Buttigieg 14%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Klobuchar 7%
Gabbard 4%
Steyer 3%
(Poll Conducted Feb 18-24)

IggyChooChoo · Feb 28, 2020

RDreamer said:
Oh boy, the administration is going full Coronavirus is a media hoax:

I take no joy in how hard the reality check is going to be on this one. I think this is shaping up to be a presidency-ending conflagration of events that even a good president couldn't handle. I don't think Obama, for example, could have survived a simultaneous recession and a major, disruptive, destructive viral outbreak happening in an election year. Even with a better mitigation plan and competent, steady leadership, I think he would lose to a generic Republican under these general circumstances. I'm hoping this goes a long way towards discrediting the conservative worldview and message machine beyond just Trump per se, and serves as shorthand for conservative ideology's total failure, much like the Great Depression did for previous generations.

cameron · Feb 28, 2020

:V

Nicholas Fandos @npfandos

Inbox: @DevinNunes endorses @RepDougCollins's Senate campaign.

9:41 AM - Feb 28, 2020

Aaron · Feb 28, 2020

theprodigy said:
Small brain: Warren is staying in to sap votes from Bernie
Galaxy brain: Warren is staying in to hold everyone else under 15% in California and effectively seal the nomination for him

I don't think the galaxy brain take is that far off, really. "Warren should stay out of Bernie's way" is ignorant of the fact that Warren's supporters aren't 1:1 Bernie 2nd choice voters. If you're a Bernie supporter and only two candidates hit viability thresholds in California, you'd want them to be Bernie and Warren, because Warren can absolutely pledge 100% of her delegates to a Bernie if he needs them to put him over the top.

Warren dropping out would maybe lead to 60% of her supporters going to Bernie, but 40% to Biden (or whoever emerges as the moderate pick post-ST). Like yeah, that helps Bernie a little on paper, but it'd help him a lot more to deny his opponents any delegates. His actual opponents, not his "waaahhh Warren is mean for drawing contrasts between herself and another candidate in a primary election ;(" opponents.

Pomerlaw · Feb 28, 2020

IggyChooChoo said:
I take no joy in how hard the reality check is going to be on this one. I think this is shaping up to be a presidency-ending conflagration of events that even a good president couldn't handle. I don't think Obama, for example, could have survived a simultaneous recession and a major, disruptive, destructive viral outbreak happening in an election year. Even with a better mitigation plan and competent, steady leadership, I think he would lose to a generic Republican under these general circumstances. I'm hoping this goes a long way towards discrediting the conservative worldview and message machine beyond just Trump per se, and serves as shorthand for conservative ideology's total failure, much like the Great Depression did for previous generations.

Nothing is moving Trump's hardcore base.

cameron · Feb 28, 2020

>

bluexy · Feb 28, 2020

Also a new Utah poll from Harris Insights (C+ rating)

#Utah @Harris_X_/@DeseretNews Poll:
Sanders 28%
Bloomberg 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Warren 15%
Biden 6%
Klobuchar 4%
(Poll Conducted Feb 22-26)

Mr. Lemming · Feb 28, 2020

IggyChooChoo said:
I'm hoping this goes a long way towards discrediting the conservative worldview and message machine beyond just Trump per se, and serves as shorthand for conservative ideology's total failure, much like the Great Depression did for previous generations.

Nah we'll just blame the democratic house and the media.

Huncho_Houdini · Feb 28, 2020

bluexy said:
Also a new Utah poll from Harris Insights (C+ rating)

Brah what is going on with Biden in these ST states.

RiPPn · Feb 28, 2020

About to celebrate the Dow hitting 25k again.

Edit: there it is.

RastaMentality · Feb 28, 2020

bluexy said:
Also a new Utah poll from Harris Insights (C+ rating)

Feels like a state Pete should be hitting 20 in.

JABEE · Feb 28, 2020

Huncho_Houdini said:
Brah what is going on with Biden in these ST states.

From what I heard he has no organization and little money left. Feels like a bump in money from SC is too late to make an impact on states you should have been in since the end of last year.

Aaron · Feb 28, 2020

RastaMentality said:
Feels like a state Pete should be hitting 20 in.

Hilariously Utah has one of the most stubbornly liberal/progressive Democratic electorates in the country. Very much a counter-culture movement to the LDS establishment.

Dahbomb · Feb 28, 2020

Biden seems completely non viable in states with a white majority. Explains why he cratered in Iowa and NH.

In any case, the stock market has evaporated 3.4 TRILLION dollars in a week. That Trump reverse midas touch.

Sheepinator · Feb 28, 2020

RDreamer said:
Oh boy, the administration is going full Coronavirus is a media hoax:

Apparently that's Fox News take on the situation, the media is exaggerating it. At the same time Trump is saying he wants credit for closing some borders early, and doesn't that action reinforce how serious it is? The virus is very dangerous for their core demographic especially, but party over country as usual.

US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.

That's some catch, that catch-22

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