It's a cursed word. Like DNC it's kind of a boogie man. The shadow group will bring down Sanders!
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 3| "I think he's learned his lesson" says The Concerned Immoderate Darling Collins.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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In attempting to reach out to black and Hispanic voters ahead of November, President Trump and his allies are focused on swaying one group in particular: minority men.
The effort has been on display in the Trump campaign's Super Bowl ad highlighting criminal justice reform, throughout Trump's State of the Union address that featured a Tuskegee Airman and two black men benefiting from Opportunity Zones and in the president's almost daily references to historically low minority unemployment rates.
Trump has increasingly welcomed black athletes and celebrities into the Oval Office, and last week the president spoke during a graduation ceremony for ex-inmates in Nevada, a state where a majority of prisoners are black or Hispanic men.
"We're here to reaffirm that America is a nation that believes in redemption," Trump said during the ceremony, in which he compared the prosecution of his ally Roger Stone with the legal challenges faced by the graduating felons. "These people know more about bad juries than everybody here," he said.
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Some Democrats are concerned that the president's charm offensive may be wooing black and Latino men to his camp — or at the very least blunting the kind of voter enthusiasm that helped propel Barack Obama to the White House in 2008 and 2012.
"It keeps me up at night," said Terrance Woodbury, a partner at HIT Strategies, a firm that conducts research on minorities and other under-researched demographic groups. "The Trump campaign recognizes that while the Democratic Party is spending a significant amount of resources and effort to persuade white suburban women back into their coalition, the Trump campaign has found a very susceptible and very different swing voter in black men."
Woodbury said that in focus groups he conducted recently in Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Detroit, he found minority men are "the most susceptible audience" to Trump's message.
Democrats are relying on high voter turnout in those and other urban areas to compete with Trump in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — places where even a modest shift in the nonwhite vote share could tip the 2020 race.
Exit polls from 2016 showed Trump won 13 percent of black male voters and 32 percent of Hispanic men, compared with 4 percent of black women and 25 percent of Hispanic women. Combined with a drop in turnout among those traditionally Democratic voters, Trump's meager minority support — buoyed by male voters — helped him narrowly win key states en route to an electoral college victory over Hillary Clinton.
Now, Trump's campaign is trying to marginally improve those numbers with a public appeal to minorities that analysts say doubles as a stealth effort to win back suburban white voters turned off by his history of racist rhetoric and divisive politics.
Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee have touted the multimillion-dollar investment the president has approved for minority outreach as a sign he is serious about competing for nonwhite voters in 2020. They point to internal RNC data to make the case that the efforts — and Trump's record on key issues important to minority men — are working.
Those internal figures, which appear to contradict some public polling, show that Trump's approval rating has improved 8 points with black men and 12 points with Hispanic men since 2016, according to the RNC.
The campaign, which launched a group called Black Voices for Trump in November, has been holding outreach events to carry Trump's message into minority neighborhoods in major cities. Most of the attendees have been men, Republican officials said.
Because pre-litigating the convention is the new relitigating 2016
They're getting a little panicky that they played too cute with Sanders for too long.
If that actually works, then we're really fucked no matter what. Does the DNC do that level of black/minority outreach? The economic numbers are hard to argue even though it started under Obama. But that coupled with direct outreach sends a message of actually caring versus the usual Dem lipservice in a lot of areas.
They asked Warren about a contested convention at the town hall. Couldn't find any other clips on Twitter
Tommy X-TrumpIsARacist-opher on Twitter
“Whether you support Warren or not, this nuking of a Bernern is a blizzard of chef's kisses. I want to have this moment's babies. https://t.co/7N23jwoZn2”twitter.com
Ha, this is great!
Love to praise literacy programs in countries that tell citizens what they are allowed to read and write
I live with a family of Cuban immigrants. Sanders being the nominee is the worst case scenario for my personal life. Please nominate Warren instead, she's better anyway.
I live with a family of Cuban immigrants. Sanders being the nominee is the worst case scenario for my personal life. Please nominate Warren instead, she's better anyway.
I like her too. But she's likely going to lose her home state. Both of them.
MonmouthPoll@MonmouthPoll
SOUTH CAROLINA DEM PRIMARY POLL: #2020Dem nomination:
36% @JoeBiden +3 pts since Oct.
16% @BernieSanders +4 pts
15% @TomSteyer +11 pts
8% @EWarren -8 pts
6% @PeteButtigieg +3 pts
4% @AmyKlobuchar +2 pts
1% @TulsiGabbard nc
15% undecided #SCPrimary http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_SC_022720 …
10:00 AM - Feb 27, 2020
SOUTH CAROLINA DEM PRIMARY POLL: #2020Dem nomination:
36% @JoeBiden +3 pts since Oct.
16% @BernieSanders +4 pts
15% @TomSteyer +11 pts
8% @EWarren -8 pts
6% @PeteButtigieg +3 pts
4% @AmyKlobuchar +2 pts
1% @TulsiGabbard nc
15% undecided #SCPrimary http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_SC_022720 …
10:00 AM - Feb 27, 2020
Biden Maintains Lead | Monmouth University Polling Institute
Sanders and Steyer jockey for second
www.monmouth.edu
"Biden appears to be holding on to his core support among African Americans in South Carolina. The recent endorsement by Rep. James Clyburn should help solidify that," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Black voters, who form a majority of the likely primary electorate, back Biden (45%) by a wide margin over Steyer (17%) and Sanders (13%). White voters are more divided, with Biden (26%) followed by Sanders (17%), Warren (13%), Buttigieg (13%), and Steyer (12%). Among those who identify themselves as Democrats, 44% back Biden, followed by Sanders (15%) and Steyer (14%), while those who are independent or identify with another party are divided among Biden (22%), Sanders (18%), Steyer (15%), and Warren (11%).
Just over 4 in 10 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters are set on their candidate choice, including 39% who say they are firmly decided and another 4% who have already voted by absentee ballot. Biden (59%) and Sanders (57%) are the most likely to have their support locked in. Less than half of those backing other candidates are firmly decided.
"A key metric for Biden in this make-or-break state is that his support appears to be firm. There is still a large chunk of the electorate who are undecided, but they are mainly moderate black voters. That's a group that tends to like Biden," said Murray.
Barr's straight up refusing to implement the criminal justice reform Trump's touted so, naturally it's all built on lies.
Men being much more susceptible is suuuuuuch a surprise though! Why does having a penis make us love dictator daddies so much
I don't think Sanders is going to deport you and your family back to Cuba. Or implement Castro's authoritarian regime.
MonmouthPoll@MonmouthPoll
SOUTH CAROLINA DEM PRIMARY POLL: #2020Dem nomination:
36% @JoeBiden +3 pts since Oct.
16% @BernieSanders +4 pts
15% @TomSteyer +11 pts
8% @EWarren +8 pts
6% @PeteButtigieg +3 pts
4% @AmyKlobuchar +2 pts
1% @TulsiGabbard nc
15% undecided #SCPrimary http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_SC_022720 …
10:00 AM - Feb 27, 2020
Biden Maintains Lead | Monmouth University Polling Institute
Sanders and Steyer jockey for second"Biden appears to be holding on to his core support among African Americans in South Carolina. The recent endorsement by Rep. James Clyburn should help solidify that," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.Black voters, who form a majority of the likely primary electorate, back Biden (45%) by a wide margin over Steyer (17%) and Sanders (13%). White voters are more divided, with Biden (26%) followed by Sanders (17%), Warren (13%), Buttigieg (13%), and Steyer (12%). Among those who identify themselves as Democrats, 44% back Biden, followed by Sanders (15%) and Steyer (14%), while those who are independent or identify with another party are divided among Biden (22%), Sanders (18%), Steyer (15%), and Warren (11%).Just over 4 in 10 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters are set on their candidate choice, including 39% who say they are firmly decided and another 4% who have already voted by absentee ballot. Biden (59%) and Sanders (57%) are the most likely to have their support locked in. Less than half of those backing other candidates are firmly decided."A key metric for Biden in this make-or-break state is that his support appears to be firm. There is still a large chunk of the electorate who are undecided, but they are mainly moderate black voters. That's a group that tends to like Biden," said Murray.
STEYER SURGE
MonmouthPoll@MonmouthPoll
SOUTH CAROLINA DEM PRIMARY POLL: #2020Dem nomination:
36% @JoeBiden +3 pts since Oct.
16% @BernieSanders +4 pts
15% @TomSteyer +11 pts
8% @EWarren +8 pts
6% @PeteButtigieg +3 pts
4% @AmyKlobuchar +2 pts
1% @TulsiGabbard nc
15% undecided #SCPrimary http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_SC_022720 …
10:00 AM - Feb 27, 2020
Biden Maintains Lead | Monmouth University Polling Institute
Sanders and Steyer jockey for second
It'll be interesting to see if Biden winning SC gives him any momentum going into Super Tuesday. Moderate voters have clearly been flailing between candidates, but a strong SC performance could allow them to coalesce behind him.
I know literally yesterday I posted something to the opposite effect but hey, it's a fluid primary. Lot of candidates, lot of volatility.
I just hope if we do end up getting Biden after all he pulls it together for the general election, because sheesh.
I'm not Cuban myself and I'm not afraid of Sanders' policies. I'm afraid he'll lose, sure. Mostly I'm afraid of how my second family will deal with his nomination, especially given they know I'm a Democrat.
Not gonna fix the possible minority men problem if you think it would.
Lol, you think his ego would let him do that?
the problem is Biden is just a lifeless shell. Bloomberg is just conceding the Overton window shift and killing liberal policies. Pete has no support besides people trying to make small talk with Adam. Amy hurts people.
The moderate lane is full of shit.
Ben Jacobs @BencjacobsINBOX: Rep. Matt Gaetz to Make Major Political Announcement at CPAC cc: @MattGertz
10:16 AM - Feb 27, 2020
Powerful moment at Biden's town hall last night.
Joe Biden on his faith: "For me, it's important because it gives me some reason to have hope. And purpose. ... It took a long time for me to get to the point to realize that that purpose is the thing that would save me. And it has"
So here's what Super Tuesday could look like if Biden wins big in South Carolina. AKA, Biden's best-case scenario. He'd have a strong performance, but would likely still fall far short of even a plurality of delegates Super Tuesday. Note that a lot of these delegates come from Biden reaching the California delegate threshold and beating Warren, which polling has been iffy on recently.
I hope this helps folk see how much of a disaster we're headed towards if Sanders starts to fall off. It's increasingly unlikely Sanders gets a plurality of voters going into the convention, even if Biden makes a comeback. And a contested convention will lead to Sanders being denied the nomination by superdelegates regardless of his lead.
fivethirtyeight.com
I hope this helps folk see how much of a disaster we're headed towards if Sanders starts to fall off. It's increasingly unlikely Sanders gets a plurality of voters going into the convention, even if Biden makes a comeback. And a contested convention will lead to Sanders being denied the nomination by superdelegates regardless of his lead.
What The Race Looks Like If Biden Wins — Or Wins Big, Or Loses — In South Carolina
Joe Biden didn’t get off to the start his campaign was hoping for in Iowa and New Hampshire. But the news has been better for him lately. He finished a (distant…
fivethirtyeight.com
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I really don't think Biden can win in VA - DFP did a poll there and Sanders was leading pretty convincingly.
I also don't see him winning Texas going by the polling and Bernie's campaigning there.
That looks more like a worst case scenario for Sanders, which isn't even that bad.
I also don't see him winning Texas going by the polling and Bernie's campaigning there.
That looks more like a worst case scenario for Sanders, which isn't even that bad.
I don't get why everyone considers a brokered convention so disastrous. We have rational actors in the delegates and supers. They'll do a right thing.
This is what I want more from Biden in the general election, should he be the nominee after all. Connecting with voters on a personal level, using shared experiences. I don't really like him but I admit I got a chill watching this.
There is something that sets Biden apart from Trump and it's that Biden has suffered and can feel empathy, and I think these two factors explain any number of his significant policy divergences from Trump and the Republican Party. Such basic requirements to be a decent human being and Trump can't rise to either of them, I can't imagine him trying to level with a voter in this way.
I mean, we're in the middle of Primary season so what do you expect?
/s
I agree, but that's also the point I wanted to make. Even in Biden's -best case scenario- it makes clear just how near-inevitable Sanders winning a plurality is at this point. But anything short of a majority for him is guaranteed to throw the party into upheaval. This isn't intended to be a pro-Sanders post so much a as a dire warning that the party is on the verge of a potential disaster.
Even if everyone tried to swing to Biden to try and prevent a nightmare contested convention, it likely wouldn't be enough.
edit: to punctuate my point. Here's Sanders' best case scenario. This is if he wins South Carolina, which seems increasingly unlikely, and then wins every Super Tuesday state. He'll only -just- get 50% of the delegates. That's the state of the race. Sanders being stuck between 40% and 50% of the delegates, but the Democrats going into the convention with a clear intent to deny Sanders the candidacy.
Shit like this doesn't inspire a lot of confidence
This would be self-destructive and stupid to an unfathomable degree.
I prefer Sanders but Biden is also acceptable to me as the nominee. They both REALLY need a great VP pick though.
I mean, what is a brokered convention just meant a unity ticket where we had a normal Democrat as VP with Sanders?
I think the only way this gets ugly is if Sanders has a weak plurality and tries to overplay his hand. That's on him.
I think the only way this gets ugly is if Sanders has a weak plurality and tries to overplay his hand. That's on him.
I personally have zero faith in the party or any of the candidates "doing the right thing" so to speak if Sanders comes into the convention with a strong delegate lead. This isn't a matter of sharing power. The existing party structure views Sanders' as a wholesale coup, an erasure of everyone and everything within the party power structure. They won't give in if they have even a single out.
Biden up 20 points in South Carolina according to Monmouth. Steyer and Bernie barely above 15%.
New poll of Montana tests Bullock against Daines but they screwed it up. Here are the results:
That's right, for some reason they asked about ALL of the Democratic candidates in the general election match-up. So on paper Daines has a 9-point lead over Bullock but the combined Dem field gets 53%, which seems kind of bad for Daines this early in the game.
lol I love how he throws out "he won 22 states!" as if it disproves her point, what a fucking wiener.
That being said I think this is a harder question for me to answer without knowing the exact situation. Like if the delegate breakdown is Bernie 30%-Biden 25%-Warren 25%-Buttigieg 20% then sure, no one can really claim a mandate, but like... if Bernie's hanging around at 48% or something the party's really going to say "lol didn't hit the majority anyway here'sWonderwall Bloomberg," really?
MONTANA SEN poll (U-MT):
Sen. Steve Daines (R) 47
Gov. Steve Bullock (D) 38
Cora Neumann (D) 7
Wilmot Collins (D) 4
Mike Knoles (D) 2
John Mues (D) 2
* - fixing earlier, they asked all candidates on one ballot. Weird way to ask.
Sen. Steve Daines (R) 47
Gov. Steve Bullock (D) 38
Cora Neumann (D) 7
Wilmot Collins (D) 4
Mike Knoles (D) 2
John Mues (D) 2
* - fixing earlier, they asked all candidates on one ballot. Weird way to ask.
lol I love how he throws out "he won 22 states!" as if it disproves her point, what a fucking wiener.
That being said I think this is a harder question for me to answer without knowing the exact situation. Like if the delegate breakdown is Bernie 30%-Biden 25%-Warren 25%-Buttigieg 20% then sure, no one can really claim a mandate, but like... if Bernie's hanging around at 48% or something the party's really going to say "lol didn't hit the majority anyway here's
That monmouth SC poll is kinda funny. It looks like everyone just ate Warren's lunch.
I'd rather we get midnight blissed Beto. Then we've got a real running mate for Bernie.
Darkstalkers fans will get this reference
I agree, but that's also the point I wanted to make. Even in Biden's -best case scenario- it makes clear just how near-inevitable Sanders winning a plurality is at this point. But anything short of a majority for him is guaranteed to throw the party into upheaval. This isn't intended to be a pro-Sanders post so much a as a dire warning that the party is on the verge of a potential disaster.
Even if everyone tried to swing to Biden to try and prevent a nightmare contested convention, it likely wouldn't be enough.
edit: to punctuate my point. Here's Sanders' best case scenario. This is if he wins South Carolina, which seems increasingly unlikely, and then wins every Super Tuesday state. He'll only -just- get 50% of the delegates. That's the state of the race. Sanders being stuck between 40% and 50% of the delegates, but the Democrats going into the convention with a clear intent to deny Sanders the candidacy.
If Sanders gets over 40% in this scenario then Warren's delegates put him over the top.
IDK maybe "The Party" wouldn't have such an issue with Bernie if he hadn't spent the last, oh I don't know, 30 years shitting on it constantly? Just a thought.
And here's the thing: If Bernie enters into the convention with a plurality of delegates, it is on him to form a coalition to put him over the top. If he can't win over enough people that arguably agree with him on many issue, then idk what that says about his ability to build a coalition in the general. Part of this is going to involve Bernie giving a little bit here and there. Bernie got a fuck ton of concessions in 2016 and after (for no good reason other than an attempt to placate people who would never be happy no matter what we did because we're all corrupt anyway).
And, like, I do not believe that the super delegates should select a nominee over the popular vote winner and all that. But maybe, JUST MAYBE, if Bernie didn't alienate everyone who wasn't already 100% #FeelingTheBern he wouldn't be in this position. Just another thought!
And here's the thing: If Bernie enters into the convention with a plurality of delegates, it is on him to form a coalition to put him over the top. If he can't win over enough people that arguably agree with him on many issue, then idk what that says about his ability to build a coalition in the general. Part of this is going to involve Bernie giving a little bit here and there. Bernie got a fuck ton of concessions in 2016 and after (for no good reason other than an attempt to placate people who would never be happy no matter what we did because we're all corrupt anyway).
And, like, I do not believe that the super delegates should select a nominee over the popular vote winner and all that. But maybe, JUST MAYBE, if Bernie didn't alienate everyone who wasn't already 100% #FeelingTheBern he wouldn't be in this position. Just another thought!
Yea, looking at those 538 Super Tuesday scenarios I'm expecting Sanders to get between 40%-50% of the delegates.
I'd be more inclined to go "Sanders should just get the nomination if he has a plurality" if he didn't spend all of 2016 arguing against that very notion.
Even if Warren encouraged her delegates to support Sanders at the convention, which isn't guaranteed, she wouldn't be able to do so until the second round of voting when Superdelegates were introduced to the vote. That's ~700 more delegates. So instead of ~2000 delegates he'd need ~2350. Warren's delegates wouldn't be enough, he'd have to pull in a lot more from another source, which isn't likely.
This is wrong. Deals can be made on the first vote before Superdelegates enter the fray.
Not saying you're wrong at all! Just musing. It's also completely hypothetical until at least Super Tuesday when we know where the candidates stand with ~38% of the delegates as opposed to the like, what, 2% we have now?
Bernie being hypocritical on procedural matters when it benefits him is hardly new for any candidate, it just packs an extra punch because many of his more vocal supporters like to pretend he never changes his mind on anything.
Shit I was gonna say something else (as far as I can tell, completely unrelated to this subject) and now I forgot.
I don't think the rest of the party sees Sanders this way at all. Now we hate the rose twitter garbage people and chapos, but like 98% of Sanders supporters are Democrats basically voting for a Democrat. They vote already for other Democrats. Sanders nomination doesn't fundamentally alter the power structure of the party at all. He will need to work with Democrats in coequal branches and state parties to get things done.
A Trump like attempt to centralize power won't work.
He was wrong then too, like candidates are now if there is a clear plurality winner. It is what it is. If that level of pettiness is all it takes to want to blow the whole thing up, then I guess that's that.
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