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bluexy

Comics Enabler & Freelance Games Journalist
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
14,521
i've got a line for where i'd say to warren "ehh, that's a bit too far for my tastes" and she's still on another continent from that point. keep going in on bloomborg plz.

like, i'm secretly hoping sanders and her have a bet on whether warren can make blooborg cry on tv.
 

Slim Action

Member
Jul 4, 2018
5,575
Okay, here's my red hot take: If Bernie ends up winning Iowa after the recount, and he wins SC, does he have a shot at winning all 50 states?
 

fontguy

Avenger
Oct 8, 2018
16,156
Taking SC seems very optimistic, even with his blowout tonight. That said, if he does win SC, this contest is so over.
 

Teggy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,892
Man, if sanders gets the nomination and is succeeding in large part due to the Latino vote, get ready for new heights of immigrant fear mongering and racism by trump.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,628
Warren is like a woman on a mission and that is the mission to annihilate Bloomberg:

 

Teggy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,892
Count me, a Liz lad, as not a fan of the short jokes. We hate trump for it and it's not needed.
 

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois
Nope.

Wesley Clark going to start up his campaign any moment now.
Hot take: Warren only wins Oklahoma like Wesley did



In the 2004 Democratic primary, retired General Wes Clark won just one state - Oklahoma. Despite originally being from Arkansas, Clark finished in second in Little Dixie. Then North Carolina Senator John Edwards dominated in the 2nd district.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
I would say Bernie has a better than average chance of winning SC for a couple related reasons. Firstly, I think a lot of democrats just want this to be over. The writing is clearly on the wall, and even if you're not a huge Sanders fan, you know sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. There's no use wasting time and money on something pointless. Like in 16 it was over after Super Tuesday (arguably SC, but we'll go with ST), this is clearly over. Let's just get on with it. Also, people don't like voting for a loser, unless s/he is a movement candidate. No one left is anywhere close to that. Also, the reason Bernie is weaker in the South than elsewhere is not because he has an issue with voters of color (clearly), but he does poorly among older voters However, it's not because older voters hate him....they just haven't had a reason to vote for him over someone else. It's a lot easier to get over that hurdle than the "No one likes me" one.
 

hyouko

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,223
???

She fucking stole his soul on live television. You think this is overextending!?
Speaking as someone on the short side, joking about someone's height is... not a great look, any more than going after any other inherited physical characteristic would be. I appreciate her being on the offensive against Bloomberg, but there are plenty of other angles to play here.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,513
???

She fucking stole his soul on live television. You think this is overextending!?
yeah because it's dumb and makes her look bad. she should call him flabby and challenge him to a pushup contest next. threaten to drink him under the table if he could even reach it. talk about how he wouldn't survive 3 seconds to her rear naked choke. her dog could beat up his dog. #presidentwarren. or would you be one of the 19% who stan that kind of shit and think it's legitimately pointed?
 

kess

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,020
Bernie is tracking really close to his 2016 numbers in Nevada, much different than Iowa and New Hampshire.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,628
My guess is Steyer eats into Biden's numbers and Bernie sweeps the remainder of the demographics for a narrow win in SC. We will see in a bit where the polls shift but right now Sanders is within margin of error to possibly win SC.
 

MizerMan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,182
yeah because it's dumb and makes her look bad. she should call him flabby and challenge him to a pushup contest next. threaten to drink him under the table if he could even reach it. talk about how he wouldn't survive 3 seconds to her rear naked choke hold. #presidentwarren. or would be one of the 19% who stan that kind of shit and think it's legitimately pointed?

I would actually enjoy that, especially if it involves Bloomberg suffering.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
My guess is Steyer eats into Biden's numbers and Bernie sweeps the remainder of the demographics for a narrow win in SC. We will see in a bit where the polls shift but right now Sanders is within margin of error to possibly win SC.
I still think one of his best angles to win is people don't like voting for the loser. Biden looks like a loser. The kinda question mark though is Pete isn't going to be able to sap Biden as much in SC. Warren won't be a factor either.

Anyway, with Bernie's campaign really doing well with Latinx outreach and managing to maximize satellite caucuses in Iowa, I'm cautiously optimistic (or at least less nervous than I was a month ago) about him being the nominee.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,460
I would say Bernie has a better than average chance of winning SC for a couple related reasons. Firstly, I think a lot of democrats just want this to be over. The writing is clearly on the wall, and even if you're not a huge Sanders fan, you know sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. There's no use wasting time and money on something pointless. Like in 16 it was over after Super Tuesday (arguably SC, but we'll go with ST), this is clearly over. Let's just get on with it. Also, people don't like voting for a loser, unless s/he is a movement candidate. No one left is anywhere close to that. Also, the reason Bernie is weaker in the South than elsewhere is not because he has an issue with voters of color (clearly), but he does poorly among older voters However, it's not because older voters hate him....they just haven't had a reason to vote for him over someone else. It's a lot easier to get over that hurdle than the "No one likes me" one.
what makes you think the issue is/was "olds don't have a reason to vote for Bernie" over "olds don't like Bernie"?

i ask because (iirc!) you used to post to the contrary, and I'm curious about what might have made you change your mind.
 

Basileus777

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,206
New Jersey
South Carolina is likely going to come down to how much of Steyer's spending and decent polling translates into real votes. If those former Biden supporters come home because they don't think Steyer has a real chance, he will win.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,628
I still think one of his best angles to win is people don't like voting for the loser. Biden looks like a loser. The kinda question mark though is Pete isn't going to be able to sap Biden as much in SC. Warren won't be a factor either.

Anyway, with Bernie's campaign really doing well with Latinx outreach and managing to maximize satellite caucuses in Iowa, I'm cautiously optimistic (or at least less nervous than I was a month ago) about him being the nominee.
I mean that's why Bernie fought so hard to get those numbers corrected in Iowa, he really wanted that narrative of "I am on a hot streak of winning." Or at the minimum, put shadow over the result of Iowa as much as possible so that he can brag about winning the popular vote there.

I also think aside from this point, the Petes/Klobs put all of their effort on first two states and it really showed its face for Klob in Nevada. They are going to be declining from here on out though Pete will last out a bit longer because he is still at least getting delegates. Where as Sanders has had influence in those later states all this time so the states as a whole will start favoring him more and more. As been for a while, the only real roadblock for Sanders is Bloomberg.

We are about to see how the movement compares to infinite money (I see infinite because it's probably not even possible to have more ads than having them up all the time, I already say two Bloomberg ads in a YT video while typing this message!).
 

FreezePeach

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,811
Weird factoid, you type 'bloomberg height' into yahoo and this is what appears at the top.

'But not to worry, Michael Bloomberg has got the height to back up his influence. The billionaire stands tall at 5 feet 6 inches (1.73m), and that stat for a man of his standing, is not bad at all. '

lol
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,460
The thing that excites me about a Sanders nom, beyond the obvious (political alignment), is that Trump's usual "y'all hypocrites" offensive is completely neutralised. I genuinely believe he has the best shot at beating Trump in November.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,628
Weird factoid, you type 'bloomberg height' into yahoo and this is what appears at the top.

'But not to worry, Michael Bloomberg has got the height to back up his influence. The billionaire stands tall at 5 feet 6 inches (1.73m), and that stat for a man of his standing, is not bad at all. '

lol
Dude is not 5 foot 6 inches unless Warren is like 5 foot 8-9 inches.


90
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,290
wherever
First Alignment Results (currently):

Bernie - 33
Biden - 19
Pete - 16
Warren - 12
Amy - 9
Steyer 9

Final DFP Poll:

Bernie - 35
Biden - 16
Warren - 16
Pete - 15
Amy - 8
Steyer - 8

Damn near perfect

So much for no reliable polling in NV
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
what makes you think the issue is/was "olds don't have a reason to vote for Bernie" over "olds don't like Bernie"?

i ask because (iirc!) you used to post to the contrary, and I'm curious about what might have made you change your mind.
So, let me say it's Democratic voters I'm talking about. I think olds as a whole might not love him, but we'll see, I guess. I do think he has an old problem, but maybe less so in the primary. I view, and maybe wrongly, older voters as more pragmatic. Old democrats are used to voting for people they don't necessarily love. (See the history of Democrats forever, honestly.) It's pretty obvious at this point that Bernie is going to be the nominee. Bernie's favorability with older Dems isn't that horrible. They like him well enough, just not his policies. However, if he's going to be the nominee, a non insignificant number may just be willing to go ahead and vote for him anyway because they don't find him personally bad (even if they don't like how liberal he is or whatever.) I think people like to vote for winners. So, he has won 2 out of 3 so far, that might be enough to get people who don't dislike him personally but aren't 100% sold on his policies. I think his older voter problem (primary) is an issue, and I guess the only solution I actually see to it is them changing a bit not him. That's why I'm thinking maybe enough will go ahead and hop on board with him just to get this stupid thing over with. It's honestly the only real demographic weakness you can see in his performance today, and it was actually better in NV than it has been anywhere else.

See, I'm one of these weirdos who dislikes him personally, but doesn't hate all of his policies. I'm like the opposite of a lot of voters in that way I guess.

I do worry about softer support among older independents in the general. I'm worried he might crater once the SOCIALISMZZZZZ starts, but that's tomorrow Adam's problem. :P

Edit: I also have kinda been thinking about folks saying the old dems will vote blue no matter who so maybe give the kids what they want and see what happens. It's as good an argument as any, I guess.
 

Basileus777

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,206
New Jersey
I wonder how much the socialism attacks will really work. Hillary's weaknesses were so unrelated to policy that she was never able to penetrate the noise with any of her policy proposals. Voters knew nothing about her policy plans or what Hillary actually stood for. You call Bernie a communist and he can easily pivot to his stump speeches and talk about health care as a human right or about income inequality. It's not quite the same as emails and Clinton scandals.
 

JesseEwiak

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,781
I wonder how much the socialism attacks will really work. Hillary's weaknesses were so unrelated to policy that she was never able to penetrate the noise with any of her policy proposals. Voters knew nothing about her policy plans or what Hillary actually stood for. You call Bernie a communist and he can easily pivot to his stump speeches and talk about health care as a human right or about income inequality. It's not quite the same as emails and Clinton scandals.

As I've said before, I think the "Bernie went to Russia in 1985" or "Bernie said something slightly wacky about breadlines" things won't work.

The things that might work is things that'll upset non-college educated white voters, so if I'm a Republican consultant, I'm really leaning on the "no job 'til 40" and the "deadbeat dad" stuff, at least as a trial run, to see if it hurts his numbers at all.

After all, Bernie's whole brand is "sure, you might not like my policies, but I'm honest," so if you can hurt that, that's probably easier than attacking him on saying nice things about some Central American rebels in 1987.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,628
lol. So the second yahoo answer says '5'7'. Google says 5'8
Just checked some height stats:

Joe Biden at 6 foot exactly which makes sense, he towers over the field.

Sanders is also 6 foot however he has a big hunch where he is shorter than he should be.

I guess that's why I thought Warren might be around 5' 6' because she felt quite a bit shorter but I guess she is above average height for a woman.

So maybe Bloomberg isn't actually 5 foot 4.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
I wonder how much the socialism attacks will really work. Hillary's weaknesses were so unrelated to policy that she was never able to penetrate the noise with any of her policy proposals. Voters knew nothing about her policy plans or what Hillary actually stood for. You call Bernie a communist and he can easily pivot to his stump speeches and talk about health care as a human right or about income inequality. It's not quite the same as emails and Clinton scandals.
He had in the last debate about 3/4s of a good answer on Democratic Socialism. It needs tightening up, and maybe a bit more simplified, but he was almost there with it. It's better than the days of "It just won't be a problem."

And, I will say this: credit where credit is due...it seems that his campaign looked at why he lost so badly in 2016 and did what they needed to do to fix it. In NV, he went from losing non-white voters by 14 (in 2016) to winning them by 19. Hell, he even kept his 42% steady across both cycles.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,460
So, let me say it's Democratic voters I'm talking about. I think olds as a whole might not love him, but we'll see, I guess. I do think he has an old problem, but maybe less so in the primary. I view, and maybe wrongly, older voters as more pragmatic. Old democrats are used to voting for people they don't necessarily love. (See the history of Democrats forever, honestly.) It's pretty obvious at this point that Bernie is going to be the nominee. Bernie's favorability with older Dems isn't that horrible. They like him well enough, just not his policies. However, if he's going to be the nominee, a non insignificant number may just be willing to go ahead and vote for him anyway because they don't find him personally bad (even if they don't like how liberal he is or whatever.) I think people like to vote for winners. So, he has won 2 out of 3 so far, that might be enough to get people who don't dislike him personally but aren't 100% sold on his policies. I think his older voter problem (primary) is an issue, and I guess the only solution I actually see to it is them changing a bit not him. That's why I'm thinking maybe enough will go ahead and hop on board with him just to get this stupid thing over with. It's honestly the only real demographic weakness you can see in his performance today, and it was actually better in NV than it has been anywhere else.

See, I'm one of these weirdos who dislikes him personally, but doesn't hate all of his policies. I'm like the opposite of a lot of voters in that way I guess.

I do worry about softer support among older independents in the general. I'm worried he might crater once the SOCIALISMZZZZZ starts, but that's tomorrow Adam's problem. :P

Edit: I also have kinda been thinking about folks saying the old dems will vote blue no matter who so maybe give the kids what they want and see what happens. It's as good an argument as any, I guess.
Makes sense. Thanks for the thoughtful reply!
 
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