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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Yeah, there's no way Warren goes for fucking Amy with Bloomberg looming like this. She knows her voice will much louder in a Sanders administration versus any of the others.
There's like 5 non-white voters in this state. Ok not that low, but probably 1%
Until the re-canvass is over he didn't win or lose anything in Iowa tbh
He's projected to win nearly every Super Tuesday state by 538.
Maybe when he wins Nevada pundits will finally start acknowledging the diversity of his base.
Good point. What's the point of reporting this statistic then.
This isn't RuPaul's most votes race!
Ban caucuses. Most votes should be the winner. But them's the breaks
SC will be majority black. non white is comprised of black+all other non whites. in these extremely whites states the black vote may only make up a small percentage of the total nonwhite vote.
He'll be the first one we send to the Central Park gulags.
It's not really, Latino vote is like 2% and African American vote is like 1% in New Hampshire.
Thirsty twitter has been activated though
Sandrers is srurging!
it was 10% of the electorate in the primary (versus 6% in the state) so it's actually more than that.
And 538 forecasted Amy to get zero delegates out of New Hampshire, I don't put a whole lot of faith into 538's forecast
so you'd say biden is inside lane to win? or that buttigieg and klob will based on similar projections pick up the poc votes?
Msnbc talking about the culinary flyer now. Jon Ralston can't say what will happen one way or another or whether they will endorse someone.
I think Bernie is the front runner but is nowhere near as strong as his supporters think he is. After that it's a mess with Bloomberg looming. Biden and Warren are done
Fair enough.
Gut feeling that I'd love to be wrong about. But that riff last month makes me think something's changed.
I apologize for my really really shitty takes today.
Sanders is fine, but his floor vs ceiling this is an issue. Everything else is maximum chaos.
The "your union gets your great healthcare and you don't want that taken away, right?" is... an actual concern. My parents were both medical professionals in a union and worry about it. They know the system as-is would have dramatically lower quality of care if you went and M4A'd everyone overnight.
Sanders is fine, but his floor vs ceiling this is an issue. Everything else is maximum chaos.
The "your union gets your great healthcare and you don't want that taken away, right?" is... an actual concern. My parents were both medical professionals in a union and worry about it. They know the system as-is would have dramatically lower quality of care if you went and M4A'd everyone overnight.
Mostly white states were his best states in 2016.
That doesn't mean they're his best states in 2020, and you're probably going to start seeing this going forward.
once more racist soundbites emerge not even cnn will push the bloomberg narrative and he's done before he even started. thus what remains is the theory that buttigieg and klob wil rise from a 1% black voter support to the 30s...
It's very obvious that Warren and Amy appreciate each other a lot. Warren on more than one occasion have shared accomplishments and she included Amy in them specifically (when she said that they both don't take PAC money and that both have never lost an election). They have never really had a spat on the debate stage either. She is not going to come after Amy at the debate stage when Bloomberg is right there. Warren will make that sacrifice for the greater good.
Sadly this is where I'm at. Although if Biden does poorly in NV, I really do expect it to hurt him in SC too. Still voting for Warren in nv, even if she isn't going to win.
I don't think it matters about M4A because like it's not happening, but if I was Bernie, I would adopt Warren's thing about the M4A transition would be tied to the expiration of your collective bargaining agreement. Like, people do not want to lose the thing they fought for. Maybe that's absurd to you (universal you no one in particular) but it's a real thing for a lot of union folk. Like, at my husband's work, they voted to decline a COL raise in exchange for having 100% of their insurance premium paid for by the employer. You force them onto M4A, they've basically given up a raise until the end of the collective bargaining period, in exchange for higher taxes and possibly worse care.
And since Bernie never really explains how any of this stuff is going to work, who cares. Just say whatever.
And since Bernie never really explains how any of this stuff is going to work, who cares. Just say whatever.
I think twitter and online message boards massively overrate how much that will actually hurt Bloomberg
bullet points from a great night from a klobuchar house
- Bernie might win but those numbers are a big fat L. Amy and Pete pulled independents and everything about the numbers reinforces the high floor/low ceiling narrative.
- There might be a new winning coalition of working class, young, diverse, highly urban voters. There's definitely a bigger, GOP-ending hands across america with everyone who's disgusted by Trump.
- Warren is done. Her night was much worse than Biden's.
- Pete would have broken out in a big way if Amy didn't surge.
- Amy winning all of those endorsements and positive press before the debates set up a situation where at the debates she could capitalize, and she really converted on that opportunity. She'll need to do the same for every additional opportunity she gets.
- Warren voters defaulting second choice to Bernie isn't shaking out at all.
- Biden is a GIANT asshat for not thanking his supporters in person so he can go down to SC and have an event that doesn't sound like a funeral.
- These big ground organizations are great at turning out the vote for your tribe vs. the other one, but don't seem to matter all that much when you're running for chief of said tribe.
Finally:
- We need to have a more serious conversation about climate on the next debate. This is stuff that largely works through exec order and the candidates have some very sharp breaks with enormous potential ramifications in the general election.
- Bernie might win but those numbers are a big fat L. Amy and Pete pulled independents and everything about the numbers reinforces the high floor/low ceiling narrative.
- There might be a new winning coalition of working class, young, diverse, highly urban voters. There's definitely a bigger, GOP-ending hands across america with everyone who's disgusted by Trump.
- Warren is done. Her night was much worse than Biden's.
- Pete would have broken out in a big way if Amy didn't surge.
- Amy winning all of those endorsements and positive press before the debates set up a situation where at the debates she could capitalize, and she really converted on that opportunity. She'll need to do the same for every additional opportunity she gets.
- Warren voters defaulting second choice to Bernie isn't shaking out at all.
- Biden is a GIANT asshat for not thanking his supporters in person so he can go down to SC and have an event that doesn't sound like a funeral.
- These big ground organizations are great at turning out the vote for your tribe vs. the other one, but don't seem to matter all that much when you're running for chief of said tribe.
Finally:
- We need to have a more serious conversation about climate on the next debate. This is stuff that largely works through exec order and the candidates have some very sharp breaks with enormous potential ramifications in the general election.
Warren endorsing a DOA campaign when she could endorse the front runner she's had a working relationship with forever just sounds weird. Warren would have a direct line to the Sanders WH not like anywhere else.
I think Sanders has a better grasp on how to message M4A right now. No reason to come up with an overcomplicated, multi-part funding mechanism which won't be utilized. I hope Warren endorses Sanders before Super Tuesday.
Even under Sanders plan, we wouldn't have M4A (well, single payer) until at least 4 years. The first 3 years they would just be expanding Medicare age requirement and making Medicare more comprehensive. Maybe something about expanding Medicaid in that time frame too but I forgot.
But yeah it doesn't really matter because he never gets into the specifics of it. And he shouldn't because it keeps the allure of M4A.
The issue is, if unions turn against M4A, like the culinary union, it has the potential to screw him out of support...and when he's not cracking 30% anywhere, he cannot afford a smaller margin. You need every delegate you can get.
This is one of the things that's always yiked me about Bernie....he cannot (or does not) tailor his message well. if you want to win the support of the Culinary Union, and this is a stick point for them, modify your rhetoric a bit. It won't hurt you with your core voters, because idk what would at this point. I'd certainly rather not have to run on "I'm taking your union healthcare."
punditry that revelations about bloomberg's racism will not hurt him i'd expect to read on a online message board.
Nate Silver on Twitter
“If you wanna say "these should have been great states for Sanders and his performance was merely OK/decent," IMO that's fair. But these should also (perhaps even more so) have been great states for Buttigieg. Nobody's really done well in a state outside their comfort zone yet.”
twitter.com
CNN pushing Sanders hard tonight, saying he won Iowa and NH and he's the frontrunner. It's good to see.
Nate Silver on Twitter
“If you wanna say "these should have been great states for Sanders and his performance was merely OK/decent," IMO that's fair. But these should also (perhaps even more so) have been great states for Buttigieg. Nobody's really done well in a state outside their comfort zone yet.”
I guess it comes down to then who has the biggest comfort zone, and based on the cross tabs of Bernie's support in Iowa and NH with the diversity of his base, that may well be him.
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