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Oct 26, 2017
6,814
Beto just ended up being a meh candidate who entered the race late and thus couldn't carve out a niche for himself, and was unable to really stand out. Coming in late he was never able to entirely find his footing up against more experienced competition. In a field of, say, 4-5 he would have done better. We lost Harris and Booker for similar reasons. He was an idiot not to step in earlier while he still had buzz from the TX senate race.

Beto didn't enter late. He entered well within the normal timeframe.

The problem were the following:
- The Vanity Fair got him off the wrong foot with the chattering class because it made him look "entitled".
- He avoided doing any news with the national media and wanted to replicate his Texas strategy of going directly to voters and standing on tables and tree stumps. But those won't move national polling numbers in the short term.
- At the exact same time, Buttigieg was on every cable show that would have him and became an instant media darling. The media liked the deference and access Buttigieg was giving him while they loathed that Beto was trying to circumvent them, so the media began taking on a hostile tone with Beto.
- When Beto began doing a few national interviews, they were a bit shaky. His penchant for speaking in anecdotes and personal stories didn't always play well in interviews and it came off at times as evasive or canned when he'd get lost in the anecdotes and forget to answer the initial question.
- Castro has a Texas feud with him, so he used Beto for target practice in the first debate, which just fed the perception that Beto was weak.

Beto had a rough start, some self-inflicted, some external factors. He began hitting his stride in the mid-summer when he became Beto Unleashed, but the field was just too crowded at that point. Warren was hitting her stride and Booty was quietly pivoting to the middle while both Biden and Sanders maintained their support. There just wasn't enough oxygen. Having gigantic debates certainly didn't help Beto or Kamala because they could never clearly make contrasts with the other frontrunners.

Look at Klob. Klob had way worse poll numbers than both Kamala and Beto the entire time those two were in the race. But as soon as the field started to thin out and the debate stage got smaller, Klob was able to contrast herself with the other frontrunners and was able to gain traction. I honestly believe if either Beto or Harris hung around long enough like Klob, they would have gotten a second look and potential surge. I saw an interview with Harris during the impeachment trial and you can tell she's kicking herself for dropping out.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
I mean yeh. This has always been the thing about Iowa? Winning isn't important so much as how you win, the order, how you perform relative to expectations.

It's why obsessing over who ends up marginally higher in whichever metric people say is the most important is irrelevant.
 

Psamtik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,845
It is so strange seeing Beto now being liked here again. When he was still in the race, it seemed like a majority of Beto posts were pretty negative

He was my favorite of the bunch and still is. Bernie's history on guns sucks, and his continued association with a second amendment maniac like Killer Mike doesn't help matters.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
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A lot of what happens is going to depend on the age make-up of the turnout.
 

OmniOne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,063
I think it is looking likely the center and center left will do some coalescing around Buttigieg. Biden will continue performing poorly (as we all saw coming) in first 2 contests, and I think the southern states won't turn out as well for Biden as people are expecting, will be more of a mixed bag.
 

Wamapoke

Member
Apr 11, 2018
2,725
Hillary helping Sanders the more she opens her mouth. Just hope she can keep quiet during the presidential race.
 

OmniOne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,063
I think what is working in Pete's favor is he has that Rorschach effect for those that need it.
 

Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,562
I think it is looking likely the center and center left will do some coalescing around Buttigieg. Biden will continue performing poorly (as we all saw coming) in first 2 contests, and I think the southern states won't turn out as well for Biden as people are expecting, will be more of a mixed bag.

Buttgieg is the absolute worst case scenario right now. He'd get demolished by Trump.
 

OmniOne

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,063


Biden's strongest base of support has been black voters -- he's at 52% in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Who could move in if he fades out? Sanders is 2nd at 28% in the poll, but does he have a ceiling? Warren is at 4%, Buttigieg still at 0%. Maybe notable that Bloomberg is at 9%.

The last time there wasn't a clear favorite for the black vote at this point was '04. A few weeks before he won IA, and NH, John Kerry was at just 1% with African Americans. But his support rocketed up and he tied for the black vote in SC and got 56% across all primaries.

Hot take.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
We've been operating this whole primary at "moderate" being 50-60 percent of voters preference, and "progressive being 40-50 percent.

Petes gonna be the moderate pick and he's gonna win.

I wish it was warren since both camps like her (they just don't find her electable)
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,383
We've been operating this whole primary at "moderate" being 50-60 percent of voters preference, and "progressive being 40-50 percent.

Petes gonna be the moderate pick and he's gonna win.

I wish it was warren since both camps like her (they just don't find her electable)

Becoming the moderate pick is dependent on Pete actually winning the black vote.
 

Starmud

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,443
It's going to drive homophobes like the lady in the Iowa Caucus to vote Trump.
Pete or Bernie, I think it's safe to say the homophobe/Nazi demo is a lock for trump and pence...

We're basically talking a few midwestern states that need to flip, I can't see any of these people expanding the map this election though.

Personally, things felt way more hopeful pre impeachment. Nancy was right again lol.

I'm pinning hopes on Congress at this point, the candidates for president have left a lot to be desired with whoever gets to the general. For what should feel like a slam dunk, Instead feels like a dice roll depending on what trump does to make himself completely unpalatable.

I'm still mad at warren for chasing Bernie into a progressive pissing match. fools gold, Bernie had that group on lockdown while she needed to focus elsewhere too.
 

Casa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,501
To be fair to Hillary, I think she's spot on that there will be considerable backlash and disappointment when a President Bernie fails to pass his pie in the sky big ticket items. Things like M4A, free college tuition, going after the private insurance companies etc are all things that will face opposition from many within his own party, nevermind getting bipartisan support.

This is my biggest issue with Bernie. Everything he proposes sounds amazing but also impossible to pass.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
To be fair to Hillary, I think she's spot on that there will be considerable backlash and disappointment when a President Bernie fails to pass his pie in the sky big ticket items. Things like M4A, free college tuition, going after the private insurance companies etc are all things that will face opposition from many within his own party, nevermind getting bipartisan support.

This is my biggest issue with Bernie. Everything he proposes sounds amazing but also impossible to pass.
This is the crux of Yglesias' support for Bernie btw, not the naivete driving the belief that Bernie will pass all these wonderful things with little to no resistance, but that Bernie is uniquely capable of selling the inevitably disappointing compromises to his base.

If all President Warren got was her Medicare transition bill, certain leftists (both on and off this site) would take it as undeniable proof that she was never genuine in her support for single-payer, whereas if that's what Bernie had to settle for you'd see those same people sing his praises as a shrewd pragmatist who takes what he can get. There'd certainly be some detractors but it's amazing how much benefit of the doubt you'll give someone when you've predetermined that you like them and will support everything they do.
 

thefro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,996
I think Pete probably juices turnout in the suburbs and kills it everywhere else.

Obama vouching for Pete will mean a lot if it gets to that point. I'm more worried about some of the hardcore Bernie people being active. Sticking the landing on the VP choice would be important.

Tactically for a general campaign I probably trust Pete the most out of anyone viable and he's going to be strong in the Midwest. Plus you would have the generational contrast going versus Trump.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,814
Those job numbers...

...again, it's going to be hard to argue for a revolution to overhaul the system when there's the perception that the economy is doing very well. Yes there are a lot of people out there that do you want systemic change because they know the system isn't currently working for them. But in terms of winning an election and appealing to people in key swing states and voters in the middle, there may not be an appetite to completely disrupt the system when the economy is perceived to be doing well.

I know Biden appears to be weakening right now but I think we're in a cycle of "bringing decency and empathy back" to the White House. The same type of cycle that put Jimmy Carter in office after Nixon and George W. Bush after Bill Clinton. I don't think we're in a cycle of economic revolution. The average person wants to go back to paying attention to politics less, not more. The reason Biden had been polling so strong fo a long stretch is because he represents the return to normalcy for the majority of the public.

And even though Biden has been cratering in Iowa and NH, I haven't seen any evidence that his national head-to-head numbers against Trump have noticeably gone down. Until I see Biden's head-to-head numbers take a big hit against Trump, I'm still Ridin' for Biden.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,383
Obama vouching for Pete will mean a lot if it gets to that point. I'm more worried about some of the hardcore Bernie people being active. Sticking the landing on the VP choice would be important.

Tactically for a general campaign I probably trust Pete the most out of anyone viable and he's going to be strong in the Midwest. Plus you would have the generational contrast going versus Trump.

Yes, because the history of Obama "vouching" for people has such a great history. Sure did wonders for Hillary's turnout.
 
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