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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Huh? The poll shows Democrats leading by 7%. I'm sure that result has an MoE, meaning it could be slightly lower or higher, but I don' think it's the MoE.
I'm pretty sure Bernie's strategy is win with 30% of the vote. (Ie the Trump strategy). The issue is, proportional allocation means he's never going to get close to a majority of pledged delegates. His best bet is a fractured field where he can go to the convention with the most delegates (but nowhere near an overall majority) and then pretty much dare the superdelegates not to give it to him. It would be the ultimate irony, not gonna lie.
The biggest issue is that there needs to be some states he wins by more than 2-4 points. Like, NH is probably his best state, second only to Vermont. He's still polling in that 20-25% bracket. Winning a state by 3 points in a field with multiple viable candidates is not good for margins. Like, if the current NH average holds, he's going to get maybe 5 more delegates than Biden and Pete.
The other issue is, even as people drop out....Bernie is not killing it in second choice. Like, if you look at first round vs second round in Iowa, he did the worst of the top three in that metric. By a lot. He got screwed out of so many delegates in some caucuses because he could only pick up 1 or 2 extra people, where Pete and Warren were getting 20-30. Part of Warrens support will go to Bernie should she eventually drop out.....but not all of it. Pete hurt Warren, and Warren hurt Pete. Pete does really well with college educated whites, as does Warren. Plus, when Amy drops out, I would venture a bulk of that support (like we saw in Iowa) is going to go to Pete.
Of course, a pretty freaking hilarious scenario is Sanders going into the convention with 30%, Bloomberg with 30% and Pete with 20%. At that point, the establishment wouldn't take it from Bernie, but I bet your bottom dollar they'd force him into a consensus Veep selection (such as Pete.) The meltdowns would be epic.
The biggest issue is that there needs to be some states he wins by more than 2-4 points. Like, NH is probably his best state, second only to Vermont. He's still polling in that 20-25% bracket. Winning a state by 3 points in a field with multiple viable candidates is not good for margins. Like, if the current NH average holds, he's going to get maybe 5 more delegates than Biden and Pete.
The other issue is, even as people drop out....Bernie is not killing it in second choice. Like, if you look at first round vs second round in Iowa, he did the worst of the top three in that metric. By a lot. He got screwed out of so many delegates in some caucuses because he could only pick up 1 or 2 extra people, where Pete and Warren were getting 20-30. Part of Warrens support will go to Bernie should she eventually drop out.....but not all of it. Pete hurt Warren, and Warren hurt Pete. Pete does really well with college educated whites, as does Warren. Plus, when Amy drops out, I would venture a bulk of that support (like we saw in Iowa) is going to go to Pete.
Of course, a pretty freaking hilarious scenario is Sanders going into the convention with 30%, Bloomberg with 30% and Pete with 20%. At that point, the establishment wouldn't take it from Bernie, but I bet your bottom dollar they'd force him into a consensus Veep selection (such as Pete.) The meltdowns would be epic.
Someone @ me this afternoon when Mittens goes out in a blaze of moderate glory, voting to convict.
I believe.
I believe.
I think as long as Sanders is the top dog, most of his supporters wouldn't complain, or they'd get over it. Any grievances they'd have against his potential compromise VP picks would instantly go away.
I mean just look at all the people suggesting Sanders-Harris. Immediate 95% reduction in "Kamala's a cop" talking points on Rose Twitter, I guarantee you. There would still be a few, and those would probably exclusively be the professional shitposters who would still somehow spin getting their way as a travesty and DNC corruption, rigged, yadda yadda.
I've long felt there's a not-insignificant number of online Bernie-or-Busters who'd still find a way to weasel out of voting for the nominee even if they got their guy because they can't just be happy with anything, but I'm also not petty enough to assume that's any significant chunk of his base.
2% battery giving me major anxiety jfc
I mean the thing is he could vote to convict and easily survive but I really doubt he will.
I wonder if the media will finally care when the Republicans chant "four more years" in 2024 too.
That's not what I meant, clearly. Venezuelan people need to see the United States supports them; this was done by the entire audience standing and clapping Guaido as the face of the opposition. I didn't just "get" the situation from reading a few articles. Thanks for the condescension, tho, Christ.
It isn't complex. Maduro needs to get out. Guiado is the best chance of this happening. This isn't about me positing the schema for change for Venezuela. This is about your drags on Pelosi for showing support for the opposition in Venezuela.
Hope he has a future in the Democratic Party after he inevitably loses re-election. He is a good good man.
How do we square this away with her being in the Green Party into her 30s?
Yeah, I don't buy that Sinema is legitimately centrist. She's playing the game and she's playing it well.
Bravo Jones, that was a great speech with an analogy even the most plain person can understand: basically like a jigsaw puzzle you may do at home, you might be missing a few pieces but you can see what the picture is about with the pieces you have already assembled. Yet you still want those missing pieces in order to have the full picture. In terms of not having all the witnesses/documents, he says there's still enough pieces to assemble the picture, and the picture shows he must convict.
The statement he posted on the Senate web site doesn't include the best parts of his speech, when it gets put up in full it's worth the watch.
The statement he posted on the Senate web site doesn't include the best parts of his speech, when it gets put up in full it's worth the watch.
All the Bernie people rushing to tut-tut everyone about Pelosi is such a microcosm for his whole campaign. Cheering on Pelosi is not an endorsement of every position she's ever taken, people are just tired of being gaslit about how everything is normal and it's satisfying to see a politician say no, this shit is not normal. The Bernie people always do this weird thing where anytime people get excited about someone that's not Bernie they have to swoop in to patronizingly explain Actually This Person Is Bad And So Are You. They can't just cheer along with other Dems because they think the people who like Nancy Pelosi are bad people.
Kind of speaks to a larger problem where Bernie and his supporters are vying for the nomination of a party they don't like, and whose mainstream supporters they very transparently think are stupid and ignorant. There is really no attempt at outreach or recognition that winning the nomination and GE requires millions of people who voted for Clinton and/or actually like politicians like Pelosi to vote for Sanders. There is kind of this attitude that those people are just neoliberal ghouls who will be out represented by the RealPeople anyway, and that people who can't see why they should support Bernie are just bad people who should be ignored. Not exactly a great way to build a coalition. Of course I will vote and campaign for whoever, but I really worry about Bernie getting the nom.
Kind of speaks to a larger problem where Bernie and his supporters are vying for the nomination of a party they don't like, and whose mainstream supporters they very transparently think are stupid and ignorant. There is really no attempt at outreach or recognition that winning the nomination and GE requires millions of people who voted for Clinton and/or actually like politicians like Pelosi to vote for Sanders. There is kind of this attitude that those people are just neoliberal ghouls who will be out represented by the RealPeople anyway, and that people who can't see why they should support Bernie are just bad people who should be ignored. Not exactly a great way to build a coalition. Of course I will vote and campaign for whoever, but I really worry about Bernie getting the nom.
So the question is do Amy, Biden, and Warren have enough resources to go past Nevada without a first or second place win to truly compete? I bet Bloomberg is betting heavily on no. I would say the same about Butti but he has enthralled some wealthy donors; I just don't see him picking up anything on Super Tuesday.
He knows he may not have a chance against Jefferson Beauregard Sessions no matter how he votes. So why not vote your conviction?
Amy: Noooooooooooooope
Warren: Yes but if that's the case, she's out after Super Tuesday
Biden: He's in it until it's impossible to win
Apparently, TenCent briefly updated their website to show the real Coronavirus figures, which are about 10x higher than the "official" numbers, which I'm sure few people believe anyway.
He has a pretty solid track record as a US attorney in Alabama, from all I've read.
Sounded like on Morning Joe this morning that Biden may have significant donor issues though, so yes he can stay in on name only but won't have great organization going forward without money, which in my mind is a continuous loss of support.
I know Bloomberg being a Billionaire plays right into Bernie's message but at the same time he would be a substantial threat if the other three or four truly start to fall by Super Tuesday for gathering votes. And if Bloomberg's plan/money work, he'll look like a genius for all the pundits!
I wonder if there has been any push from the party to broach the possibility of dropping out to Biden. If he doesn't bounce back soon I'd think Obama at the very least would talk to him about it.
Also.... I don't think people actually hate billionaires.
Shaun King sucks and stole money from black organizers so you probably shouldn't post him. But SC will be very interesting.
Well that (and Shaun King) sucks.
To say that Democrats have been nervous about Biden since this whole thing started would be an understatement.
Pompeo understands The Simpsons as much as Ted Cruz understands Green Eggs & Ham
Well at least he's aware that he missed his mark in Iowa.
Considering what a few people on the ground in China have been posting (that there seems to be way more infrastructure being built and measures be implemented for just 500 deaths), I would not be surprised if these were the actual numbers.
They're locking down cities that aren't even close to Wuhan. Shits way worse than they've been saying.
He will stew about this harder than anything for awhile...
Well, at least Susan Collins will have an awful day even if she convinces herself otherwise.
Let's hope it's his last one. People don't give a shit about these anymore. There's nothing shocking or entertaining (for MAGA people) to see.
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