The 2012 GOP primary was mostly proportional allocation.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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The 2012 GOP primary was mostly proportional allocation.
The Senate vote to convict is scheduled for 4pm EST. Some of the trial's daily closing speeches given by the house managers were powerful, I will be looking to see whether we get something similar from House leadership after the vote has concluded, or if we get something more akin to "tomorrow is another day" and they wait for the president to make another move before announcing the House's next move
A former rising star in MAGA world recently renounced the orbit of operatives who support President Donald Trump, calling them a "cult" and saying they broke campaign finance laws by requesting and taking her campaign donations.
Now, Rabia Kazan is talking to the FBI.
"I lost everything with these people," Kazan told BuzzFeed News from the lobby of the Connecticut hotel where she now spends most of her time.
Kazan's time in the MAGA world saw her make connections with top figures and lesser-known operatives. But she now believes she was "used" for her money — and for her identity as a former Muslim to help smooth over Trump's incendiary comments about Islam.
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Kazan had a knack for publicity, and eventually gained the attention of Trump's election efforts. In April 2016, she joined the board of directors for the National Diversity Coalition for Trump, a group cofounded by several Trump surrogates and Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer who is currently serving out a prison sentence after pleading guilty to federal campaign finance violations.
For nearly four years, Kazan, 43, was a frequent speaker on the MAGA circuit, receiving awards from campaign surrogates and posing for photographs with a who's who of the president's inner circle: Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Michael Flynn, Kellyanne Conway, and more — including Trump himself.
Her social media accounts from 2018 to 2019 were packed with glamorous selfies at various Trump hotels and events, often with many members of MAGA world's second string, such as Trump campaign proxy Martha Boneta, Housing Secretary Ben Carson's son, and Rudy Giuliani's 20-year-old personal assistant, Christianné Allen, who once accompanied Kazan on a trip to Beverly Hills.
And she had money. Kazan said she received an inheritance after her mother's death in 2018. Her sister, Betul, married into one of Turkey's wealthiest families, which owns the Turkish plastics company, Plastmore.
Lot more in the link.
It would be great if they had a pow-wow with Romney. If Romney decided to vote to convict (yeah I know unlikely) that would give the space for some of them to vote to convict. Or at the very least Mittens would offset Sinema or Manchin voting to acquit. Essentially making both votes "bi-partisan".
Geoff Bennett @GeoffRBennett
House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler tells reporters he thinks it's "likely" that one of the House investigative committees will subpoena John Bolton. He didn't give a timeframe. - h/t @haleytalbotnbc
10:31 AM - Feb 5, 2020
House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler tells reporters he thinks it's "likely" that one of the House investigative committees will subpoena John Bolton. He didn't give a timeframe. - h/t @haleytalbotnbc
10:31 AM - Feb 5, 2020
So they were able to settle it because everyone diligently dropped out? Because it didn't seem like Romney secured a majority until the end.
Shimon Prokupecz @ShimonProNancy Pelosi during the closed door caucus meeting this morning:
"He shredded the truth so I shredded his speech," Pelosi said.
She said she felt "liberated" because the speech was so outrageous.
10:38 AM - Feb 5, 2020
Alex Moe @AlexNBCNews"The President came into the House chamber and peddled lie after lie in an extraordinary fashion," Dem Caucus Chair @RepJeffries says on #SOTU calling out specifically Trump claiming to protect ppl with pre existing conditions and that he inherited a mess from Obama
10:39 AM - Feb 5, 2020
I think there's a good chance we're heading towards a brokered convention with a non-zero chance that the Democratic party will essentially break apart. And I'm wondering what will happen after that.
I'm probably too deep in my own head, but I've lost confidence that the Democratic party is strong enough to defeat Trump.
I'm probably too deep in my own head, but I've lost confidence that the Democratic party is strong enough to defeat Trump.
I'm kind of the opinion that while it's possible (even likely) no one gets a majority on the first round, we'll have a pretty good idea of how it will shake out. Superdelegates will announce their intentions ahead of time, and it will probably just be a rubber stamp on whoever has the most pledged delegates at that point in the race. Obama, Clinton and any other respected party elders will step in and affirm this. Other candidates may even just drop out and encourage their delegates to vote for the inevitable nominee.
People were prepared for all sorts of shenanigans in 2016 too, and it ended with Sanders nominating Clinton by acclimation. That was a more cut-and-dry result, but the idea that we'll be entering the convention in pure chaos seems far-fetched to me. For now.
This timeline truly is completely bizarre. Even considering just 3 years ago to where things are now. The bar is so incredibly low.
Not even the speech, the whole "event" was fucking nuts. The "4 more years" chant, the constant lies, Rush getting the medal of freedom...right fucking there, all the props he kept bringing out. It was really just a glorified rally.
The drug prices and gun legislation was honestly some of the worst shit.
If most of Biden/Sanders/Warren/Butti remain viable for a while and Bloomberg becomes viable on Super Tuesday, then yeah it's brokered convention time.
Frank Thorp V @frankthorpSen @MittRomney will announce how he plans to vote on the articles of impeachment during a 2pm Senate floor speech.
10:34 AM - Feb 5, 2020
Yeah, I'm not super gung-ho about any of the candidates at this point. My primary in Maryland isn't until April 28th, so I'm not even worrying about it too much until closer to then. The field will be wildly different by then.
I think the person with the most pledged delegates will likely be Bernie. I hope with every fiber of my being that people of influence like Obama will rally behind him and get traditional Democrats on board.
Frank Thorp V @frankthorp
Sen @MittRomney will announce how he plans to vote on the articles of impeachment during a 2pm Senate floor speech.
10:34 AM - Feb 5, 2020
Oh god, the suspense.
I don't think it's going to a brokered convention. Klobuchar's dropping soon. Either Biden recovers or he doesn't. If he doesn't have a good showing in NH/NV/SC, he might pack it up as the cost of campaigning goes up.
Buttigieg and Bloomberg are the wildcards here.
Buttigieg and Bloomberg are the wildcards here.
The worst case scenario would be all the moderate options splitting delegates and Bernie ending up with a plurality with like 35% of the pledged delegates.
I do not remain confident there aren't shenanigans to deny him in that scenario.
Yeah you're too deep in your head, and if you spend a lot of time in this thread it causes brain rot, some of theses people aren't good for your head lol. Stop being weak, get up and fight. If we lose you get up, brush yourself off and keep fighting.
The primary devolving into Sanders vs. Bloomberg is certainly not an outcome I was anticipating.
This is the only path to victory for Democrats. When Sanders gets a majority of delegates, all these big Democrats have to get behind him hard and fast.
Same for Biden but they will easily back Biden.
Basically we lose for sure if there is hesitance in backing up Bernie when he has the majority. You are then basically feeding the narrative of the "establishment against Bernie" and a considerable voting block is going to be incensed.
Biden got in because of his ego. No way he's not in for longer. Also I wonder if Pete's going to start showing signs of life nationally.
Pete is pitching generational change but also seen as perhaps too young. He needs someone older but maybe not to the extent of an Obama picking a Biden. His anemic support among black voters means he absolutely needs a person of color on the ticket. And for both political reasons and I think moral reasons, we should be not having all-male or all-white tickets anymore, so the running mate should be a woman too. Abrams ticks off all these boxes, but is also in her own right very smart, articulate, and a great campaigner, so she brings a lot of similar strengths to the table that complement Pete's.
I mean it doesn't need to be literally Stacey Abrams but you see what I'm getting at. Tbh I'd be more concerned about Abrams' lack of experience going into that role, and I think squish independent moderates might just generally feel that a ticket of a small-town mayor and state legislator is not a big enough deal to choose them over Trump. But I don't know!
Frank Thorp V @frankthorp
Sen @MittRomney will announce how he plans to vote on the articles of impeachment during a 2pm Senate floor speech.
10:34 AM - Feb 5, 2020
What is the logic in voting for witnesses but against conviction? "not enough evidence"?
Can you vote Present during this shit?
If he's smart he's hammering New Hampshire with ads saying he won Iowa. I think that's his only chance if he has a really good showing there as well. Otherwise, bye bye Pete.
I still believe!
If he's waiting this long to make an announcement, perhaps he's trying to reduce the immediate blowback for voting to convict. Vote to convict and dash out of town.
Just like how Senima will vote to acquit.
Thats not how the media works. Even if it existed no one but vox would put out an article on it.
This is exactly Bloomberg's path to the nomination. Make it to ST with no clear frontrunner, then flood the networks and be the "accomplished, sensible" Goldilocks* moderate everyone is hoping is enough to beat Trump
* = Not too old like Biden**, not too young and gay like Butti, not too female like Klob
** = Edit: apparently they're the same age? Why does Biden feel so much older?
* = Not too old like Biden**, not too young and gay like Butti, not too female like Klob
** = Edit: apparently they're the same age? Why does Biden feel so much older?
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The last ten states or so were winner take all, but Mitt still had like three times the delegates of anyone by then. 2012 was a cluster early on but he was the presumptive nominee by the end.
fake edit: looking at wikipedia, the only one who didn't withdraw was Ron Paul lol
This is exactly what I fear. Bernie will have a plurality of the pledged delegates, but not enough for a majority. So party insiders will coalesce behind someone else for the nomination. And if that person is anyone but Warren this country is in big trouble.
I think if they do even for Warren it's a massive shit show and I say that as someone who has Warren as his #1.
If it's anyone but Bernie in that scenario, the party is going to implode.
Stuff can change as more candidates drop out, going into Super Tuesday we might still have 5-6 candidates eating up the delegates.
Warren is signaling she might drop out if she doesn't perform in NH. Cancelling planes to Nevada/SC is not a good look but honestly if she doesn't over perform this is for the greater good I feel.
Edit: Posted above.
11:01 AM - Feb 5, 2020
NBC News @NBCNewsJUST IN: Alabama Sen. Jones: "After many sleepless nights, I have reluctantly concluded that the evidence is sufficient to convict the President for both abuse of power and obstruction of Congress."
11:01 AM - Feb 5, 2020
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