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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Trump had to trot out Rush fucking Limbaugh make a statement, yet a simple tear is all Pelosi had to do to ensure the MAGAts promptly forgot every word of rubbish they'd just heard.
I'm sure Stephen Miller is crying in a corner somewhere, so that's enough for me tonight.
I'm sure Stephen Miller is crying in a corner somewhere, so that's enough for me tonight.
God I can't wait when Pete's support collapses. Get this kid off the national spotlight. He has no fucking experience and awful policy.
He'd want to keep Warren in though no? Since her support is likely to flow to Sanders?
"@ewarren is cancelling a flight in Nevada and South Carolina from 2/17-2/23. So far she's cancelled over $350k"
Van Jones is an idiot, and if he believes this, the only black folks he knows are a) in his own family and b) he only talks to them like once a year and never about politics.
EDIT: Biden still projected to get 4 delegates. Amy has 1 projected delegate as well now.
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So, I've actually been thinking about this all evening (because I'm old, have a million kids and literally can only escape the insanity that is my life by going in my own head). I don't think Bernie has a black voter problem. I think Bernie has a really, really, really big old person problem. Like, it's really, really bad. As DOA as Biden is with youth, Bernie is DOA with older voters. We have actual evidence of that now based on the Iowa results, second alignments and the entrance poll. If I had to venture a guess, I would be Bernie's current African American support is clustered in that lower age bracket by a whole bunch. Just like his white support. I think the reason he does so well with Latino voters is that it's a young voting cohort. So, I think Bernie's bigger issue is...unless he fixes his olds problem, he's not going to fix his poor African American support. I think these things are linked way too much to fix one without the other.
Now, Pete has very little African American support, BUT he has no problems with the olds. In fact, of all the candidates, his support is the most equal across age groups. He did 2nd best with young voters yesterday. He did 2nd best with old voters yesterday. So, I think Pete's support problem is literally just getting older African Americans to support him. The issue is, I don't know that he has enough time to do that. He'd need to be doing what he did in Iowa for months in the south and he hasn't. That's the issue with being a nobody.
So, I guess the question becomes which is the easier issue to fix....a problem with just older African American voters or a problem with ALL old voters at large? I think it's an uphill climb for Pete. I don't think he can do it, but IF he could, at least get that support up to 14 or so percent, while Bernie stays in the same vein...it might get him a few delegates he wouldn't get otherwise.
It's actually been that way the whole time, I think. I think they are waiting on the final numbers to see where he's viable and not. He's going to get some delegates.
I don't see older African Americans ever swinging to Pete's camp but I will agree that Bernie's performance among older voters is extremely concerning.
That doesn't really make sense though, he's at 15% statewide that's something at least (plus, there's 41 delegates and only 24 are allocated here).Biden down to zero (0) delegates on NYT.
But what will the olds support be for booty when they find out about the gay?
User Banned (1 Week): Insensitive Commentary Around Race
Oh, I agree it's very unlikely. It's just the only argument they could possibly make that it would work. It's like me suddenly being straight though. Very unlikely for a ton of reasons.
That's the thing, right. Older black voters are going to have more issues about the gay than some of the older white voters. That's a product of older black voters being very, very concentrated in the south, being more religious than their white Dem counter parts, etc. Pete, though actually talks about religion in a way that I think would appeal to a lot of older black voters. He is very good at talking about his faith. The problem is....the gay and also he doesn't have time to do the work he needs to. Like Bernie found out in 2016, you can't build these relationships in a handful of weeks.
Those numbers are only what the AP has officially allocated.
It'll probably end up
13 Pete
13 Bernie
10 Warren
4 Biden
1 Klob
Pete's issue is harder to fix. 0% support is nuts and tell me its essentially impossible for him to fix that problem. Given his history as well I just don't see any options to make inroads with the aa community. Short of an Obama endorsement he's cooked. His history takes years to fix.
On sanders I have no clue. One thing I think hurts him a great deal is messaging. Particularly the framing of revolution. Gut feeling is that kind of messaging hurts him but I don't think I've ever seen a poll on it.
Give Warren all of Biden and Klob's delegates. It's a new rule I just approved.
I really, really wonder if Biden taking a beating in the first 3 states will affect his performance in South Carolina.
Butts has no path. But Sanders doesn't either with current black / old support.
if Biden totally goes into free fall, I have no idea where that support goes. Honestly, Bloomberg? Amy? Maybe Pete? It's very concerning.
Also, I hope people have a better appreciation for Hillary after this shit. It's VERY hard to start a primary as the front runner, hold on to it, and keep your coalition and then win. Say what you will, but she did that in 2016.
Also, I hope people have a better appreciation for Hillary after this shit. It's VERY hard to start a primary as the front runner, hold on to it, and keep your coalition and then win. Say what you will, but she did that in 2016.
Bloomberg's the only person tbh. And with the way he's spending, he knows it. Biden will literally never drop out though especially for fucking Bloomberg. So, mess.
I believe, and I may be wrong on this so feel free to correct the record, but I think he's improved his support to like 1-2%. It's still abysmal but it's better than 0%.
I mean, people say a lot of things. If we look at last nights results, and again it's one state, Biden people did not go to Bernie. In fact, almost no one went to Bernie on the 2nd round compared to everyone else. (He gained some and maintained the lead, but Pete and Warren were the big beneficiaries of 2nd choice.) So, I am not sold on Biden supporters going to Bernie.
She was a far more disciplined candidate than Biden, that's for sure.
So I'm trying to drive to Reno and volunteer for the NV caucus but these are the volunteer options:
Are these really the only jobs you can do at a caucus? Every option sounds terrible.
Are these really the only jobs you can do at a caucus? Every option sounds terrible.
Which is absolutely wild, considering they couldn't be further apart from a policy standpoint. People are bizarre.
I guess mighty (old male) whitey feelings run real deep.
It's just me thing that pisses me off. Warren, Amy, Hillary all work harder than Biden, but the fucker just sits at the top of the poll.
One thing I give Bernie he campaigns the fuck out of it....as long as it's not in the south.
Maybe you could develop an app to report results? They're hiring, and desperate.
I actually want to see if minority turnout is up this year vs 2016. That's something hard to determine from lily-white Iowa (at least with the data we have now). I don't remember if it was an issue in the primaries last time, but it's why I'm thinking Super Tuesday is a better time to take stock of turnout.
Black voters lining up behind BLOOMBERG after Black twitter claimed they're some hyperwoke demographic who rejected Pete for his POLICY will be such a cackle. My people, their confusion.
It's the Henry Louis Gates endorsement, is what it is. *edit: there was a NYT article on the beer summit in which Gates basically came out and said Bloomberg is the only person who can beat Trump and that Bloombito could get past stop-and-frisk. It was a little odd I thought.
Yeah agreed. It particularly annoyed me on the debate stage how much of a curve he was graded on.
The single thing that helps Biden is our memories of him being Diamond Joe. Obama has been the single best thing to his legacy.
Unfortunately without Obama and not being VP anymore means we can see just how cooked he is. He's just too damn old and how he behaves just confirms that.
I still don't see how he wins the nomination. He's just too insipid between his belief that Republicans are still possibly good faith actors and just behaving like my grandfather. The longer the primary goes on for, the worse it's going to be. Like I said, not acknowledging how broken American society is right now is a death knell to any campaign.
Unfortunately without Obama and not being VP anymore means we can see just how cooked he is. He's just too damn old and how he behaves just confirms that.
I still don't see how he wins the nomination. He's just too insipid between his belief that Republicans are still possibly good faith actors and just behaving like my grandfather. The longer the primary goes on for, the worse it's going to be. Like I said, not acknowledging how broken American society is right now is a death knell to any campaign.
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