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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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It's also a caucus versus a primary. It's always bound to be wonky.
Not yet, I think. We just endured a week of Trump's defense team making up lying so that's gotta be worth a little on top of solidarity.
Funnily enough, I am actually in the process of testing the coding for a program my company runs for the state of Iowa this morning. It has nothing to do with the caucus, but it is strangely ironic.
That Gallup poll seems way too rosy, especially with a majority of the country supposedly having a favorable opinion of the Republican Party. Like... no. That is not a result that's ever been replicated anywhere else in polling.
Healthy reminder that Gallup stopped polling presidential horse races after they whiffed hard in 2012 and kept showing Romney with a popular vote lead. He was up by like 7 points with them at one point!
Healthy reminder that Gallup stopped polling presidential horse races after they whiffed hard in 2012 and kept showing Romney with a popular vote lead. He was up by like 7 points with them at one point!
Gallup has been posting results like Ras for a while now.
That being said Trump's approval has been trending up for a while.
That being said Trump's approval has been trending up for a while.
I believe using any state that uses cacusus' for turn out discussion is a foolish endeavor. It's very nature suppresses turn out for a lot of people, even those who may be motivated for a candidate. New Hampshire may be a more interesting data point.
The energy in this thread and elsewhere online is so weird. You'd have thought GE2020 already happened with a landslide loss.
Re: Iowa turnout, people are also forgetting the change to caucus rules which would also disproportionately hurt Biden supporters?
Re: Iowa turnout, people are also forgetting the change to caucus rules which would also disproportionately hurt Biden supporters?
From WaPo:
Ernst, Grassley defend Iowa's first-in-the-nation status
Lol
And I thought you guys were over freaking out about individual polls.
Ernst, Grassley defend Iowa's first-in-the-nation status
Lol
And I thought you guys were over freaking out about individual polls.
Meh, I'm not sure it matters outside of it being the first contest and therefore will drive narratives. This same affect would be transferred to any other state that goes first. It's a purely media narrative effect that has nothing to do with the state or the method of the selection itself.
I'm actually more irritated by Trump jumping in to lick the balls of Iowa's first in the nation status than I am by all the fuck ups last night.
Ugh, I hate that social media insincerity. If that were genuine, it would be a private message to Rush. Instead, like so many other examples, it's just tossed out into the ether, it's more important that people see you did it than the intended recipient actually get it. The platform even allows for @ but she doesn't bother. It's like something 12 year olds do. "Tell Darren...", "He's not here, tell him yourself later.", "Tell Darren..."
Great job blaming Iowa for our own incompetence, saying the state sucks, when we desperately need to try an oust Ernst
what the fuck
what the fuck
No witnesses and swift acquittal. A temporary bump after that is kind of inevitable.
Two things -
1. Exceedingly few states are actually losing population. Since 2010, only 4 states have declined - West Virginia, Illinois, Connecticut, and Vermont. Two territories also did - Puerto Rico (for obvious reasons) and the Virgin Islands.
2. Iowa is literally almost dead center for population growth since 2010. At 3.6%, their population growth is 24th of 50. They obviously aren't seeing the explosive growth rates of Texas or Florida or...Utah (biggest percentage gain for the decade!), but they are well above replacement rate.
People don't give a shit. They will excuse corruption for a good economy. And yes I know the economy is shit for anyone dealing with student loans, but the votes of under-35s are not as big.
Embarrassing. People will seemingly excuse anything if the stock market is doing well.
I'm just saying that has nothing to do with the first contest being in Iowa. The first contest could be anywhere and have the same effect.
I personally think that we are being delusional to think that trump wont get reelected. As long as the economy doesn't fall into a recession nobody can touch him, especially after all these mistakes, both planned and unplanned, only help him grow stronger.
For example I approved of impeachment and still do but it would be wrong for us to ignore the fact that trump being acquitted will only empower him to do worst things. He started this just the day after the Mueller report came out for fuck's sake.
Not saying that we shouldnt bother, we really should still try but we also need to figure out an alternative.
For example I approved of impeachment and still do but it would be wrong for us to ignore the fact that trump being acquitted will only empower him to do worst things. He started this just the day after the Mueller report came out for fuck's sake.
Not saying that we shouldnt bother, we really should still try but we also need to figure out an alternative.
People say the very same thing about Florida when there are snafus related to Democratic races there. Sometimes it is state/local.
Steyer saying the race is wide open and anything can happen. Meanwhile he's still in Iowa. Not like this, Steyer.
With the constant lies of the defense team and no witnesses, Trump hasn't been able to kick himself in the balls more than usual lately.
The poll closed on Jan 29th, before the last bits of Bolton news and the Friday night vote.
You must have a very relaxed job if 10am is "almost noon" lol
speaking as someone with a relaxed job
Mark Knoller @markknoller.@PressSec does not think Pres Trump will being up impeachment in his State of the Union tonight. She thinks the American people "are frankly bored of it." Interviewed on @FoxNews this morning, she said people want to hear what he's done and is planning to do for the country.
10:01 AM - Feb 4, 2020
>
Tyler Pager @tylerpagerNEXT STEPS: The Iowa Democratic Party has scheduled a call with campaigns at 11 am central time. Campaigns are not expecting to get results but they are hoping for a timeline.
9:36 AM - Feb 4, 2020
For real. At this point where getting the data late anyways, the least they can do is make sure that it's right.
I always have to remind myself that Trump won by razor thin margins in 2016 in just a few states. By the time November rolls around he'll have 4 years of chaos and incompetence saddled on his back to go with the criminality and racism. He's not a blank slate like he was then. I think to myself, "surely it will be nearly impossible for him to replicate that as hated as he is?"
But hey, the DOW is at record highs and the wealthy are getting wealthier so I guess none of the bad shit may matter.
But hey, the DOW is at record highs and the wealthy are getting wealthier so I guess none of the bad shit may matter.
Manu Raju @mkrajuDurbin told me doesn't know if Ds will be united on conviction. "I don't know the answer." He said Schumer is in touch with the three Dem senators who are on the fence but said Schumer isn't pressuring them. He said pressuring them is not possible on a vote "of this magnitude"
10:07 AM - Feb 4, 2020
Numbers from Bernie's campaign.
lol thanks, bernard
tulsi had nine true believers (based on 40% of precincts) can we get someone to interview these ppl?
kinda really pissed that bernie got robbed of a real victory due to incompetence
I'm starting to think he won't just win but will carry more states than in 2016 as well because "economy and Democrats are mean"
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