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Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,773
why? That's how the winner is determined from Iowa
Not really when you're reporting how many people voted for you. We have three different ways to claim a winner. Winning 1 of 3 of them doesnt make you "the winner", especially when Pete had mostly everything riding on Iowa.

and that's even if he win pledged delegates.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,926
Bernouts are going to lose it online over Pete but if tonight says anything about the primaries, it is that behavior doesn't mean much.

Really, the things people need to think over are Biden cratering and Sanders not bringing out his new coalition. Both feel super suspect, to the point of outright disqualifying.
 

GameChanger

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,935
Bernie won. I am calling it right now for those of you who are too anxious to wait till tomorrow to get the results.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,773
Bernouts are going to lose it online over Pete but if tonight says anything about the primaries, it is that behavior doesn't mean much.

Really, the things people need to think over are Biden cratering and Sanders not bringing out his new coalition. Both feel super suspect, to the point of outright disqualifying.
I actually think the "on pace for 2016" turnout stuff is going to have to wait until we know more. It might very well be, but it was a statement made by the IDP when they had allegedly 25% of the precincts.
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,970
Most of the polls had Biden in first or second in the final week. What explains the huge disparity between last week's polls and the results that have been leaked this evening?

I think polling in recent times has been pretty suspect because the assumptions have all been off. In the case of Biden, people might have the opinion of supporting him but I don't think he's the type of candidate that gets people off their seats to vote in an Iowa primary. Even guys like Yang are offering something that gets people excited.

The only one that was kind of accurate (in terms of accurately determining a general blowout) was the Taiwan election and that was honesty sort of easy because the KMT didn't really do much to combat the accusation that they were an existential threat to Taiwan autonomy. A whole lot of other polling has been quite off from the UK elections to the Australian elections.
 

Vector

Member
Feb 28, 2018
6,687
So the one consistent theme I'm seeing across the little info we have is that Biden tanked.

Let's see if he holds his national lead after this.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,263
Sydney
Is Biden underperforming a rock solid fact? There were anecdotes of him being non viable in places but we have almost no useable results for Iowa.
 

Deleted member 28564

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,604
Is Biden underperforming a rock solid fact? There were anecdotes of him being non viable in places but we have almost no useable results for Iowa.
Not a rock solid fact, but this seems to be the case according to a couple different sources. The Tweet above and Bernie's internal numbers having Biden in a distant 4th. Oh, that crowd sourced one above would be another indication.

And I really don't know how anyone can possibly spin a 4th or 5th place as "eh, doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things."
 

Deleted member 24149

Oct 29, 2017
2,150
Is Biden underperforming a rock solid fact? There were anecdotes of him being non viable in places but we have almost no useable results for Iowa.
Nothing rock solid unless you rely on candidate reporting which tbh I wouldn't.

Gonna be a rough morning.
 

Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,775
Ahh ok. So did he avoid putting resources there in comparison to the others? I know Liz and Pete went in for Iowa. Could this loss be attributed more to that than anything else?

I think he does have softness in his support, and this is a good indicator of it. That's something I'll wait for more info on, once we get to a more diverse state.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,147
The chart is Biden Sanders Warren Pete % chance to win the nom with this 3 placement
lh5CFCb.jpg


I would like to see it
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
Honestly, this is probably 90% exhaustion because my youngest daughter had surgery yesterday and I'm flying on zero sleep.....but these results are just overall depressing as hell.

We have two front runners who are incredibly weak. One is DOA with anyone under 30, one is DOA with anyone over 30.

One front runner might have lost a state he's been campaigning in for like 5 years to a 38 year old small town ex-mayor who is polling a distant 5th nationally.

The other front runner barely registered a blip in a state that, while not to his strengths, shouldn't have been THAT bad (and managed to possibly do worse than a candidate polling a distant 6th nationally).

One front runner's strategy of activating the youth didn't seem to pan out (which even though i don't love Bernie if he could actually do that it would be a good thing!)

The other one, even with party backing managed to fucking crater...again to a small town mayor and a Senator who throws staplers and eats with a comb.

This primary would have been so much better if Biden and Bernie didn't run.
 

aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,480
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
Yeah I'm not going to take 10,000 votes crowdsourced terribly seriously when it's supposed to be 200,000ish total.

I feel extra bad for the foreign media on nights like this. Reading the BBCs live thread and updates make is sounds like their reporters are trying to speak a foreign language even if they're US political pros. Their final tagline for the night is "The story of the night... this system sucks."

Nate's theoreticals are garbage in that chart. How can Pete go from 30% at the nomination to zilch depending on just this result? Or how can Biden's chances swing 40%+? And Sanders upward of 60%?
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
Yeh this doesn't seem a strong result for anyone. If it's a tightly bunched top 3. And the polling co-leader came 4th.

Well other than Amy SURGE.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,926
Head to heads VS. Trump are just fiction at this point.

My concern out of this is that Bernie's coalition will turn out...against other Democrats in states where Democrats will win anyway, and that his draw to new voters doesn't mean jack in swing states and we set up scenarios with losing the EC despite running +3.5% popular vote.
 

studyguy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,282
Absolute shitshow, Iowa caucuses are already crap for accessibility, the clusterfuck of tonight makes me hope people reconsider it and the position of Iowa going first because of sheer happenstance back during the rule change. Absolutely disgusting show. For a state that huffs its own god damn farts over its place in the election this is inexcusable.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,944
And I really don't know how anyone can possibly spin a 4th or 5th place as "eh, doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things."

Honestly a lot rides on how close the top 4 are to one another--with the prevailing speculation that Warren is in third, it makes sense for her campaign to state the gap between third and fourth is huge, but that could mean a lot.

These results mostly seem good only if you're Pete or Klobuchar, since you're outperforming expectations. Warren did better than I expected, but I've already resigned myself to not getting her and it's not good enough to make he a forerunner or reverse the spiral she's been in. Sanders kind of wanted a decisive victory here since it's the setup most favorable to him and it could have established his narrative pretty strongly, but if he's close to the others... It's not bad-bad for him, but it's not as good as what was expected.

Biden in fourth or fifth is bad, but his campaign has he opportunity to recover if they address it. That placement would have ended a lot of others, but the weird situation we're in lets him try to pull it out later, I think.

Maybe the spread will differ from my expectation but this seems like an insane and largely rough night.
 

Deleted member 24149

Oct 29, 2017
2,150
Bernouts are going to lose it online over Pete but if tonight says anything about the primaries, it is that behavior doesn't mean much.

Really, the things people need to think over are Biden cratering and Sanders not bringing out his new coalition. Both feel super suspect, to the point of outright disqualifying.
This expert analysis could have waited until the actual results come out.
 

aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,480
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
Oh god, not only has CNN not let their evening crew go home, but they sent their earliest AM people to the airport in Manchester to catch all the candidates arriving there. And they're both on at once!

Beto would have had f-bombs for the process at his speech, and for that, an alternate reality of us are forever grateful.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
6,926
This expert analysis could have waited until the actual results come out.

So every campaign has more or less confirmed independently w/ their own numbers that Biden absolutely flopped, and the overall turnout numbers were as low or lower than 2016. Bernie has to deliver on expanding the overall base of support, because he will be super mega ultra toxic to some of the swing voters we won in 2018.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,263
Sydney
Oh god, not only has CNN not let their evening crew go home, but they sent their earliest AM people to the airport in Manchester to catch all the candidates arriving there. And they're both on at once!

Beto would have had f-bombs for the process at his speech, and for that, an alternate reality of us are forever grateful.

images
 

XenodudeX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,896
Jacksonville, Florida
Man I don't know.

Dems look pretty fucking weak right now. Turn out should high as fuck, yet it's low? Sanders can't turn out his fucking base? Biden flopping like that?

I don't know, man.
 

Thorn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
24,446
God imagine if fucking Pete ends up getting the nomination. Trump will eat him alive.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,773
Man I don't know.

Dems look pretty fucking weak right now. Turn out should high as fuck, yet it's low? Sanders can't turn out his fucking base? Biden flopping like that?

I don't know, man.
We don't actually know what the turnout was. We only have an estimate from a statement based on what the party thought represented 25% of the votes.

We don't actually know how anyone did.

Go to bed everyone.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,523
Honestly, this is probably 90% exhaustion because my youngest daughter had surgery yesterday and I'm flying on zero sleep.....but these results are just overall depressing as hell.

We have two front runners who are incredibly weak. One is DOA with anyone under 30, one is DOA with anyone over 30.

One front runner might have lost a state he's been campaigning in for like 5 years to a 38 year old small town ex-mayor who is polling a distant 5th nationally.

The other front runner barely registered a blip in a state that, while not to his strengths, shouldn't have been THAT bad (and managed to possibly do worse than a candidate polling a distant 6th nationally).

One front runner's strategy of activating the youth didn't seem to pan out (which even though i don't love Bernie if he could actually do that it would be a good thing!)

The other one, even with party backing managed to fucking crater...again to a small town mayor and a Senator who throws staplers and eats with a comb.

This primary would have been so much better if Biden and Bernie didn't run.

Have faith my fellow Bro, Bernie is gonna do it for us \o/
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
Biden: fail even with the olds
Sanders: kind of meh even if first, kinda fail if second
Buttigieg: hooray you can win white people
Warren: over-performed, but still middling
Amy: SURGE
 
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