It doesn't though. He doesn't need to win Iowa or NH to win the primary, Bernie/Warren arguably do.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Nah. Biden does very well with black voters, and can run up the delegate score in southern states. It's similar to what Clinton did. If you win by enormous margins in the southern states, and keep everything else close plus get some wins like Nevada you've got the nomination.
But isn't Iowa a pretty moderate state?
Why would bernie or Warren have won here?
To put it another way... if Biden + Booty (+Klobb) > Sanders + Warren it's a result Biden should be super happy with.
Iowa is very white, is a caucus, and caucuses skew young. That's where Bernie is his strongest and where Biden is weakest.
Weirdly it clearly doesn't represent the Republican electorate either, despite how white it is.
Theres a GOP sham caucus to vote in Trump just because iowa hasn't picked the GOP nominee since 2000.
Nate Cohn: The lack of results from Iowa is not normal. By this time in 2016, nearly 80% of the total vote was counted, based on the data we have from last time.
NYT's Nick Corasaniti: Wondering why there's no results? Party officials tell me they're doing "quality control," making sure preference cards and turnout align with results.
NYT's Nick Corasaniti: Wondering why there's no results? Party officials tell me they're doing "quality control," making sure preference cards and turnout align with results.
What I will say, is Kerry was also at 1% among black voters when he won Iowa.
I'm not QUITE sure why folks are so willing to say Pete is 100% dead when his black support is abysmal, but Bernie is 100% viable when he polls in the same range among older voters.
To be clear, I think a Pete win means Biden is the nominee, I just don't think he's any more DOA than some of the other candidates.
I'm not QUITE sure why folks are so willing to say Pete is 100% dead when his black support is abysmal, but Bernie is 100% viable when he polls in the same range among older voters.
To be clear, I think a Pete win means Biden is the nominee, I just don't think he's any more DOA than some of the other candidates.
People don't put the same weight as Iowa. NH will just be a blip.
Yeah, but at least NH doesn't have the extra added nonsense of being a caucus state.
Yeah Biden needs to get at least 3rd tonight.
I dont think Bernie getting 2nd in iowa is going to suddenly make the south start to favor him over biden especially when he got 2nd 4 years ago as well
I dont think Bernie getting 2nd in iowa is going to suddenly make the south start to favor him over biden especially when he got 2nd 4 years ago as well
Absolutely not. Sanders voters are not gonna switch over just because he ended up 2nd in Iowa. What this will do is hurt Biden's electability narrative and pull over some Biden voters to Buttigieg. Pete winning is much better for Bernie than Biden winning.
Biden with the momentum out of Iowa would probably run away with the nomination.
I think Pete winning Iowa warrants a new state taking it's place. Shit like this just can't happen. He's polling at fucking 0% with African-Americans.
The state of the union is tomorrow and Trump will be acquitted on Wednesday, Iowa will get zero coverage this time tomorrow
the trump impeachment shit is boring as fuck at this point to a lot of people
More time for grilling Mrs. Concerned over the coal on voting acquittal!
IA > NH > NV (more diverse but a caucus) is just the worst damn opening sequence that's not reflective of, like, any actual piece of reality for this party.
White Democrats are more liberal than Non-White Democrats, Iowa is very White and caucuses reward intensity of support so the Democratic voting audience is a lot more liberal than the average state.
There is a massive difference between another day of impeachment hearings and it ending with Trump acquitted.
You know what fuck it, propose Illinois as first in the nation as a primary instead of a caucus
Yeah I just noticed today looking at a wikipedia chart that even my state, MA, gets way more delegates than any of the first four and yet no one gives a shit about us because reasons.
Because only Bernie can beat Biden and Bernie needs a commanding win of the early states (sans SC) to get a good narrative into Super Tuesday. A confusing narrative into Super Tuesday benefits Biden, presumably.
So if preliminary results hold, basically we are likely to learn nothing of substance and everyone is going to make of this what they want?
I say we do Florida first
that way we know who would actually win the thing
the SOTU is literally going to be the same shit. Trump reads from a script, a pundit says "presidential!", people melt down for 30 mins. People wanna know who the nominee will be.
But Kerry lost the general! And failed to turn out black voters!
I am biased as an Illinois resident but damn it, that would make a lot more sense than Iowa.
Because numerous polls have had Pete having higher unfavorable ratings with black voters than Warren or Bernie, even though he's far less known.
Just how it is brother. Only Massholes give a shit about Massholes. Feels bad.
Didn't someone figure IL to be the most representative of the D voter base? Because yeah, make whatever state that is first please. You could argue that only having 1 major media market was simultaneously a good and bad thing, though.
more transparency/allowed ways to vote = more complexity = takes longer? Like how California took a month to finalize election results, because of all the mail ballots.
I mean we sure as hell ain't a bellwether for the nation or anything but we have more than double the dels of Iowa ffs.
I wonder if they don't want to release results before 2nd realignments are done. Would make sense.
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