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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 2| Dershowitz says "Quid Pro Quo on the Go?" [See Staff Post]
- Thread starter TheHunter
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I don't really care much for Klob but I honestly think against Trump she would win fairly decisively, at least better margins than Warren.
That said this satellite Florida/Iowa caucus shit can't make my eyes roll harder. Bunch of old folks not even in the state trying to get in on the action.
That said this satellite Florida/Iowa caucus shit can't make my eyes roll harder. Bunch of old folks not even in the state trying to get in on the action.
Weaver was terrible in interviews this morning, and hasn't changed in 4 years. Every person who supports Sanders should be concerned, campaigns can and do sink candidates.
As for 2022 backlash, Sanders' 2022 backlash could occur in 2020 instead, if no one learns from 2016. Should he be running away with the majority of delegates, it will be up to his campaign to head this off well before the convention, and as early as before Super Tuesday. Speaking only to "voting for the eventual nominee" will not be sufficient enough of an effort.
And they will need to do two things IMO: a) declare victory in "our revolution" (platform in 2016, establishment power tamped down in 2020) and b) convert to "our unity" before the establishment remnants try to make the general election, say, a battle of billionaires or outright hand it to one.
At the same time, it would be the most "extreme vetting" cycle of Sanders' life. His campaign and congressional boosters, other than swatting down twitter flies, are untested in this area. Does the Sanders campaign have it in them to handle this? Not even the campaign of a highly qualified candidate, with all the establishment behind her, could overcome public opinion and the selective wielding of institutional prerogatives in 2016.
If there is any consolation here, Biden campaign has all the same problems and concerns. Moreover, both campaigns need to express a burning desire to want the Senate for Democrats, like *looks at watch* right now.
As for 2022 backlash, Sanders' 2022 backlash could occur in 2020 instead, if no one learns from 2016. Should he be running away with the majority of delegates, it will be up to his campaign to head this off well before the convention, and as early as before Super Tuesday. Speaking only to "voting for the eventual nominee" will not be sufficient enough of an effort.
And they will need to do two things IMO: a) declare victory in "our revolution" (platform in 2016, establishment power tamped down in 2020) and b) convert to "our unity" before the establishment remnants try to make the general election, say, a battle of billionaires or outright hand it to one.
At the same time, it would be the most "extreme vetting" cycle of Sanders' life. His campaign and congressional boosters, other than swatting down twitter flies, are untested in this area. Does the Sanders campaign have it in them to handle this? Not even the campaign of a highly qualified candidate, with all the establishment behind her, could overcome public opinion and the selective wielding of institutional prerogatives in 2016.
If there is any consolation here, Biden campaign has all the same problems and concerns. Moreover, both campaigns need to express a burning desire to want the Senate for Democrats, like *looks at watch* right now.
What does censure imply? Is that the same as preventing him from being on a future ballot? Or is it censure in that traditional "reprimand" with no consequences sense.
Nope. Literally just says you've been naughty and we don't approve. It's the smallest thing in the world but they'll never do it.
It's a public reprimand. Andrew Jackson is the only other President to get censured (articles have been introduced on others) so it's still a big deal (it'll go on his permanent record!) even it's mostly symbolic.
lol
I think he fucked up the typical phrasing. Rebuilt from the bottom up.
Basically gets called out for it and he'll be one of the very few POTUS' with such a slap on the wrist.
Which means if it does happen he'll lose his mind cuz Obama never got one.
Isn't that the same dude who lost to Sharice in 2018 primary and threw a huge fit at someone the day after?
One of my biggest complaints from 2016 was Weaver. He's absolute dogshit, and has no business being apart of any campaign. The fact that he's hanging around, and still has sway with Sanders is a serious problem. Sanders is loyal to the wrong people, and that can sink him. It's my biggest issue with Sanders, and why I prefer Warren over him.
Yeah. Warren would put in good people, odds are. I can't help but feel Sanders would put in people for the wrong reasons, and they'd end up compromised by third parties.
Remember when the so-called "Conservative Squad"? Remember when it was to be hyped up as the big counterweight to the other more successful Squad? well...
Here's what we're looking at from last quarter from each group's individual fundraising. AOC is head and shoulders above everyone in individual fundraising.
I'm not sure we can extrapolate anything from these weird satellite caucuses... I think someone mentioned this on an earlier page:
it certainly helps that no one on the left knows or cares who they are, versus the Squad getting nonstop free press from every outlet everytime they breathe
Wish I could get as excited about a potential Bernie candidacy as so many Era posters are. There are a handful of "purple" states that even a moderate like Biden who is tailor made for places like that will struggle to beat Trump. The thought of a state like Florida for instance even being competitive with Bernie as the nom seems fanciful. And then there's WI, PA, and MI where people will fall for the Red Scare tactics hook, line, and sinker.
I'll fucking panic if Bernie wins the nom. Not because of Bernie himself being a poor candidate, but because I don't trust voters in the only states that actually matter.
I'll fucking panic if Bernie wins the nom. Not because of Bernie himself being a poor candidate, but because I don't trust voters in the only states that actually matter.
That's actually why I said IF that was the case. It's in line with polling, but ya, no, you can't make any definitive declarations from anything. What is interesting about the Florida result is that it IS incredibly monolithic, in that it lets us see how maybe voters 60+ are going to vote. With 58% of 2016's electorate being over 50, I don't know how Warren or Bernie could survive getting bodied that badly with older voters. it's all a thought exercise though.
In case anyone wants those raw vote totals that we have, i did them to add the Florida numbers. (I just assumed Warren is viable even though she's not because we don't know her 8 voters will re-allocate, but it's not that important since none of this matters)
Klob.....53 votes......27%
Butt......45 votes......23%
Biden....37 votes.....19%
Bernie...34 votes.....17%
Warren..27 votes....14%
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Suddenly my coworkers who have spent the last month and half saying "why don't they just censure instead of impeach?!" would change there minds so that would be entertaining.
Sometimes right-wingers are so close... and then they pivot to scapegoating immigrants or whining about transgender people or dogwhistling about birth rates.
Yeah, there's nearly zero chance of NC going blue with a Bernie nomination. It may even hurt down ballot enough to re-elect Tillis. Whatever happens, though, I hope we keep Cooper.
Turner would be his Chief of Staff in all likelihood. I think he'd go for a black Socialist (or socialist-aligned) like Gillum or Keith Ellison.
Yeah, I think a bunch of our more leftist friends are totally unaware of how much the 2016 & 2020 primaries have been relatively clean, compared to a general election campaign, and frankly, how little the average American knows about Bernie. They can make jokes about "all these GOP ads make Bernie look awesome" all they want, and Bernie might even win against a Republican onslaught, but this Twitter myth he's already been vetted is absolutely false.
I agree Biden could also be just as bad, but Kirb's also pointed to polling where Biden still wins votes who dislike both him and Trump, so it might not be as bad.
Yep I feel like the senate is virtually impoasible in a Bernie nom even if I think he has a decent chance of actually winning himself. And I would take Biden with a dem senate over Bernie with only the house any day. Of course no matter who wins I will work my ass off to try and help get them elected.
Vanity Fair and Rick Wilson. What a one-two punch of irrelevancy.
If Sanders didn't pick a woman, Ellison would actually be one of my top choices. Ideologically compatible, but would cover one of his major weaknesses, won a statewide election in a state Clinton nearly lost.
The allegations would be concerning, but until I see any other evidence to the contrary I think it's a total hatchet job. First he punched her, then he didn't, there's evidence, then there wasn't, then there is but it's in my garage and I don't feel like looking for it, then there was but it was deleted by government hackers. All that and she just immediately pivoted to "wow, look at these Democrats supporting domestic abusers, #Blexit #WalkAway" while getting chummy with Republicans and it's like yeah, this doesn't seem convenient at all.
So I dunno, I think he's weathered the worst of it and he's got quite an impressive record as Attorney General thus far. He'd be a good asset to Sanders if he wants it.
The allegations would be concerning, but until I see any other evidence to the contrary I think it's a total hatchet job. First he punched her, then he didn't, there's evidence, then there wasn't, then there is but it's in my garage and I don't feel like looking for it, then there was but it was deleted by government hackers. All that and she just immediately pivoted to "wow, look at these Democrats supporting domestic abusers, #Blexit #WalkAway" while getting chummy with Republicans and it's like yeah, this doesn't seem convenient at all.
apologies for the redundancies for anyone following the Johnny Depp thread since I brought this up there too
So I dunno, I think he's weathered the worst of it and he's got quite an impressive record as Attorney General thus far. He'd be a good asset to Sanders if he wants it.
Vanity Fair and Rick Wilson. What a one-two punch of irrelevancy.
Probably true, but I also don't doubt Trump already has a hit list compiled
the universe hears your wish and bestows upon thee Tulsi Gabbard
You think Barr wouldn't?? They absolutely will find something to charge him with
the latter
MoveOn was actually originally a movement to censure Clinton and move on
Amy just klobbered this though from Florida. Her klobbering arm is long.
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