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adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
Like, I know this kinda goes against the data a bit...but even though Bloomberg is doing okay I genuinely don't think his base of support is even remotely firm. (Story of my life, tbh.) We've seen the "not Bernie" (different than the never Bernie which I don't think is a real thing. I mean if you can get ME you can probably get almost anyone in the Democratic party.....cause I'm just the worst) fluctuate up and down. If Biden totally flames out, does all that support go to Bloomberg? I think a chunk might, but I'm not convinced that once the knives come out for Bloomberg a lot of folks won't settle for Bernie.

I just am not sold on the whole buying support actually works.
 

ned_ballad

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
48,218
Rochester, New York

Here let's all look at this and make fun of it.

Annotation_2020-02-18_120730.png
I was with my parents watching TV and an ad for this came up and we didn't believe it was even real at first
 

EntelechyFuff

Saw the truth behind the copied door
Member
Nov 19, 2019
10,133
If Bernie cannot beat Bloomberg among Democrats, then Bernie would, in my opinion, not be favored to beat Trump in the general. it's really that simple.

This is the best summation of the scenario. In a certain view, Bloomberg vs. Bernie is a helpful match up. If Bernie can beat blue Trump, chances are decent that he can beat Trump in the general as well.
 

Ionic

Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,734
Why are people acting like Bloomberg is a realistic presidential nominee?

It's good to be proactive with regards to the potential implosion of the democratic party if they select the candidate most closely aligned to Trump. But it isn't necessarily unfounded either, as more and more polls show him doing well in super Tuesday states, already overthrowing other candidates. To go along with this, every week we see more notable politicians lining up to praise Bloomberg. And while other campaigns may begin to run out of money, that is an impossibility for Bloomberg. It feels rather imperative that people slag off the guy sooner rather than later given his campaign has gone nowhere but up as we head into him getting on the ballots.
 

Darkstar0155

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,162
Bloomberg sadly is what a lot of the moderate wing of the party wants. I actually don't think many actually know anything about him, just that hes "moderate" and "not Bernie".

Most of the general populace knows nothing about him, other than he's from N.Y. He has managed to get to where he is at by spending insane amounts of cash, and coming so late to the party that nobody has had time to really dig into his history.

by "nobody" I mean the general populace that gets 95% of their info from facebook, and ads.
 

discotheque

Member
Dec 23, 2019
3,858
Like, I know this kinda goes against the data a bit...but even though Bloomberg is doing okay I genuinely don't think his base of support is even remotely firm. (Story of my life, tbh.) We've seen the "not Bernie" (different than the never Bernie which I don't think is a real thing. I mean if you can get ME you can probably get almost anyone in the Democratic party.....cause I'm just the worst) fluctuate up and down. If Biden totally flames out, does all that support go to Bloomberg? I think a chunk might, but I'm not convinced that once the knives come out for Bloomberg a lot of folks won't settle for Bernie.

I just am not sold on the whole buying support actually works.

Polling has shown that Bloomberg's supporters are the most likely to change their minds.



If Bloomberg does poorly in the debate tomorrow, I would not be shocked to see his polls dip bigly.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,604
hqdefault.jpg


I mean, he might be now, but he's just the new hotness, obvious flash in the pan. Soon as he opens his mouth, he'll drop like a rock.
But you can't trust that'll happen spontaneously. It's exactly why Bloomberg needs to be in these debates: to provide that opportunity for Bernie, Warren, et al. to hold his feet to the fire and give voters a way to see his candidacy outside of his millions of campaign ads.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,614
I mean I hope so too but debates don't usually have such a significant impact on polls. Sometimes they do, like Klob pre-NH primary.

Bloomberg has the media on his side as well so they will soften the blows he takes.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,941

In Trump's mind, the guy did nothing wrong. Everything was perfect. Witch hunt. Hoax.

Blagojevich was impeached and removed from office for corruption; he solicited bribes for political appointments, including Barack Obama's vacant U.S. Senate seat after Obama was elected president in 2008. Blagojevich was convicted and sentenced to 14 years in federal prison.
 

Sidebuster

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,405
California
User Banned (1 week): trolling
Hey, I just got back from the future (don't question this, it's true). As I was walking around I realized there was nothing left. Even though I could barely see through the smouldering haze, coughing and choking trying to breath this smoke, I could see the world had ended. Scrambling around for how this could have happened, under some rubble I found this picture.
3pkcr8.jpg

I just couldn't believe it. How could this have happened? As I looked for more evidence, I noticed another picture half burned on the ground. It was a forum meme taken from what looked like a post here on era. As weird as I thought it was that somebody would print a meme; as I inspected the paper, it all suddenly made sense.

It appeared to be the last post on the thread. Could have this been the moment before it all ended?
iu

In a panic, I looked around trying to get the bigger picture of where I was. It was my home. What was left of it anyways. It was me, I must have printed out that post as some kind of future gotcha. I never got the chance to use it. Realizing what had happened, I ran back to my time machine and got back to the present day I left. I had to warn everyone.

Don't vote for Bloomberg! He knows what he's doing!
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Neoliberal now means "Anyone Leftists disagree with."

Credit sphagnum

Liberalism = belief in limited government (that is to say, government limited by constitutional powers, not "small government") and individual liberties. Classically, the Republican and Democratic parties have both been liberal parties. The term "liberal" veered off to mean "expansion of rights and government services" in the US, with conservatism developing to mean the opposite, but ignore that because it's an aberration from the worldwide meaning.

Socialism = worker control of the means of production. Out of fear of socialist revolution, capitalist (liberal) nations made compromises leading to the development of social democracy.

Social democracy = liberal state with an expansive welfare system. Social democracy came out of reformist socialists who gave up on the transition to worker control combining with reformist capitalists who feared revolution. This is what prevailed in western Europe and the Democratic Party for most of the 20th century.

Neoliberal = a reaction to social democracy, a return to belief in small government, cutting taxes and services, and turning to the market for solutions. This was pioneered by Pinochet, Thatcher, and Reagan but became basically liberal orthodoxy by the 90s. It doesn't matter whether one is socially progressive or not, it's about economics. Hence why Bill Clinton was also a neoliberal ("The era of big government is over!", his welfare "reform", etc.) and why socialists often argue that Obama was not really a social democrat but a neoliberal, at least to some extent (his desire for a grand bargain that would cut entitlements, Obamacare turning out to be Romneycare, etc.)

We are now entering a period where neoliberalism is clearly failing/has clearly failed, and some combination of pro-socdem/pro-demsoc support is on the rise. Demsoc/democratic socialism = socdem but further beyond/reformist socialism/using socdem as a stepping stone to get to the end goal.
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,558
Credit sphagnum

Liberalism = belief in limited government (that is to say, government limited by constitutional powers, not "small government") and individual liberties. Classically, the Republican and Democratic parties have both been liberal parties. The term "liberal" veered off to mean "expansion of rights and government services" in the US, with conservatism developing to mean the opposite, but ignore that because it's an aberration from the worldwide meaning.

Socialism = worker control of the means of production. Out of fear of socialist revolution, capitalist (liberal) nations made compromises leading to the development of social democracy.

Social democracy = liberal state with an expansive welfare system. Social democracy came out of reformist socialists who gave up on the transition to worker control combining with reformist capitalists who feared revolution. This is what prevailed in western Europe and the Democratic Party for most of the 20th century.

Neoliberal = a reaction to social democracy, a return to belief in small government, cutting taxes and services, and turning to the market for solutions. This was pioneered by Pinochet, Thatcher, and Reagan but became basically liberal orthodoxy by the 90s. It doesn't matter whether one is socially progressive or not, it's about economics. Hence why Bill Clinton was also a neoliberal ("The era of big government is over!", his welfare "reform", etc.) and why socialists often argue that Obama was not really a social democrat but a neoliberal, at least to some extent (his desire for a grand bargain that would cut entitlements, Obamacare turning out to be Romneycare, etc.)

We are now entering a period where neoliberalism is clearly failing/has clearly failed, and some combination of pro-socdem/pro-demsoc support is on the rise. Demsoc/democratic socialism = socdem but further beyond/reformist socialism/using socdem as a stepping stone to get to the end goal.

Still don't get how the vast majority of dems at this point are neolibs. Pretty much all of them are calling for massive expansions to the welfare system. Obama's legislation is sometimes fell under neoliberalism, but that usually was more from failed compromise rather than starting out there. I don't think he really falls into either category and the democratic party post Clinton through Obama was somewhere in between. Post 2016, most dems are calling for massive cuts to governmetn spending.
 

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
I have argued that they should change their branding to something cooler.
Make it a fucking tiger or something.

but really it should be an iconic US animal
a bison, an eagle, a grizzly, a steelhead etc.
I agree. The elephant works better as a symbol of the democrats anyway: intelligent, communitarian, strong. Of living American animals, I like the bison. But who says it has to be a living animal...

 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Obama to a decent extent and especially Warren are not Laisser-faire.

Warren literally created the CFPB!

Obama tried to cut entitlements a LOT and talked about his desire to do so well before any negotiations with Republicans. Even during and after the recovery he also stubbornly refused any initiatives to boost Public Sector Jobs and opined about Reagan, said he would be a Reagan Republican in another time, etc. The system and political reality stopped his grand bargains (with Sanders et all largely to thank for his politically motivated reversal to expansion of Social Security etc), but he very arguably was not a true SocDem.

slate.com

Barack Obama Has Long Subtly Favored Cutting Social Security Benefits

A subtle element of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations is that Barack Obama wants to cut Social Security benefits, but only wants to do so as part of a...

 
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Manmademan

Election Thread Watcher
Member
Aug 6, 2018
15,988
Like, I know this kinda goes against the data a bit...but even though Bloomberg is doing okay I genuinely don't think his base of support is even remotely firm. (Story of my life, tbh.) We've seen the "not Bernie" (different than the never Bernie which I don't think is a real thing. I mean if you can get ME you can probably get almost anyone in the Democratic party.....cause I'm just the worst) fluctuate up and down. If Biden totally flames out, does all that support go to Bloomberg? I think a chunk might, but I'm not convinced that once the knives come out for Bloomberg a lot of folks won't settle for Bernie.

I just am not sold on the whole buying support actually works.

The issue here is that Super Tuesday is going to wipe out a big chunk of the field.

Sanders is certain to stay in.
Bloomberg has infinite funds and is ALSO certain to stay in.

Beyond that? Its a crapshoot.

Warren, Pete, Amy, and Steyer don't have the funds or infrastructure to keep running if they end up in 4th or worse. 3 out of 4 of those are done.

Biden has been hemorrhaging support, and mostly to Bloomberg for weeks. Any finish worse than second on Super Tuesday kills him...and his fundraising hasn't been good either. Second is looking like a stretch, though he might get a boost out of SC.

In a Sanders/Bloomberg/[third place] race, a lot of that dropped support is going to go to Bloomberg. If that third candidate is Biden, its going to get worse- Biden is spectacularly terrible as a candidate.
 

Vixdean

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,855
Bloomberg is the literal avatar of everything Bernie has railed against for 30 years. Unrestrained accumulation of wealth and power, using it for the ultimate form of political influence: buying a Presidential election. Any campaign should be thrilled to have the opportunity to draw such a clear contrast while hammering home their core message. I agree with the general sentiment that if Bernie can't beat Bloomberg, he can't beat Trump.
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
If you're going to play this kind of political arithmetic, then looking at who is likely to be able to grab enough delegates to argue for the win at a contested convention, a similar argument could be made to say your primary vote choices are Bernie, Bloomberg, or a bunch of wet noodles that may as well be Bloomberg votes.


Of course it could and it's not a game, it's unpleasant frustrating reality.

I'm just talking about Bloomberg if he gets through the terrifying concept of wet noodles winning it for him. Ultimately the General is the only thing voters en masse can impact. Random joes - even seriously invested voters, can't fix the primary system. But random Joes are the ones who will most likely be the ones whose enthusiasm and (D) will be the difference between four more years of Trump and the GOP and four more years of Dems and anyone else as president from Gabbard to Bloomberg.

The only thing that makes me optimistic right now is that this situation is unprecedented and EXTREMELY fluid - we've been anointing winners non stop since 2016 (with Biden snatching defeat the hardest) so MAYBE something good will happen?

And I'm pragmatically worried about Bernie scaring away old people, the media trying to amplify that fear for clicks and eyeballs, but he could energize them with a good VP pick and trump going after medicare makes bernie a natural old people ally in a really blunt way. Maybe even Trumpers will start sweating that.
 

kcp12304

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,974
Bloomberg is also a threat to the moderates by flooding the airwaves with ads as it makes it more expensive for those candidates to run ads and have them break through. Bloomberg is also stealing the media attention away from Biden, Butti, and Amy in the weeks leading up to Super Tuesday.

Bernie can more easily stroll on in with his core base or ~30% cause he doesn't have to play that game.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Every candidate on that stage has reason to go after Bloomberg. I wonder if the moderators will paint the target on Bloomberg's back red? Oh and congratulations to Bernie for breaking that 30%. Super Tuesday might be a bloodbath.
If you mean Biden, he's already more than hinted that he's going to hunt down Bloomberg. Like, with Bernie he's a bit friendly but he has no friendship with Bloomer.
 

Poodlestrike

Smooth vs. Crunchy
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
13,489
But not well off enough to influence politics in any way possible. Someone making 100k a year doesn't have the extra income to influence a legislator to push tax breaks, they are not part of the ruling class at all. A multi-millionaire or billionaire? yeah, most likely. Again, being educated does not guarantee a much better off standing in terms of material conditions. Teachers alone prove that.
I feel like something must've gotten turned around in this conversation.

The original supposition was that both parties are the same because neither party is interested in changing the way power is centralized in the system. My argument here is that this is class reductionist, that Dems are interested in changing the distribution of power, even if they're not on board with dismantling capitalism.

Your followup is that Dems have no incentive to change the structure in meaningful ways that help poor people and minorities because they've been captured by elite interests. I think this is where I got sidetracked, talking about why change has ever happened, but that's not really relevant to the initial point. The sidetrack just sort of further confirms that. Your suggestion that the reason things have changed at all recently is because of well-educated people becoming disenchanted with the system due to the financial collapse, but even you yourself say that those people do not hold meaningful political influence if we're playing but the rules of the initial post. So we're back at square one - I don't think that your take on who holds power and what it means to move for that power to change hands is correct, because it only recognizes one type of power (wealth) and one axis along which in groups and out groups are measured (again, wealth).
 

Xaszatm

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,903
Please go into the world difference between "When Mexico sends its' people, they're not sending their best. They're sending their crimes, their rapists" and "I think we disproportionately stop whites too much and minorities too little."

No no, let's be fair, that poster has a point. Bloomberg not only actively locks up protesters and enforces racist policies, but also changed the rules of his own state so he could run for Mayor a third term. He actually has a leg up on Trump in that regard.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
32,721
No no, let's be fair, that poster has a point. Bloomberg not only actively locks up protesters and enforces racist policies, but also changed the rules of his own state so he could run for Mayor a third term. He actually has a leg up on Trump in that regard.
City, he changed the rules in NYC itself, not the state.
 
Oct 30, 2017
2,365
Blagojevich, the man John Stewart once compared to a German fairytale monster? That Blagojevich? Why? Just, why? I mean, I know why, but what's even the point? I don't think anybody wants this.
 
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