RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Not disagreeing. I think 'like' is the wrong word.
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US PoliEra 2020 |OT 1| THE ANTI BENGHAZI (Read Staff Post)
- Thread starter TheHunter
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A lot of people don't like Biden either. The youth especially, and I really wouldn't want to risk them not coming out to vote in the general.
My apathy for Bernie does not make me enthused about Biden.
My preferred candidate is on his couch with his cat and beard.
I can point to you like 6 different countries in which the left won and 6 others in which the centrist lost, if you want
But when you say he's polarizing... he's no more polarizing than any other of the top 4! Save Warren who the GE hates because we hate women in this country.RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominationwww.realclearpolitics.com
Not disagreeing. I think 'like' is the wrong word.
I think you'll be surprised. Lets see how the first couple of primary states work out.
Haha that's cute
I mean Canada has a weird FPTP system and since Layton died NDP's struggles have been less ideological more of incompetence from recovering from the Mulcair era and never being able to have Layton's appeal in Quebec.
And anyone would've beaten Le Pen, Macron was just got a little more than Fillon and Melenchon in the first round.
Spain literally just happened, and Denmark a little before that. Sure, they're not super leftists, but they're normal socdem PMs and not really centrists. And AMLO if you want to go south, but there wasn't really a fascist party to stop there.
also Canada is a bad example — PCP isnt nearly as far right as some other western counties. Sure, if Barnier had won the PCP leadership election you might have an argument but his party flopped. (What no one wants to say is that the current far right Quebec governing party is the closest to Republicans we have on the continent but Republicans probably never mention them cause they think French is gay or something)
The left won in:
Spain
Portugal
Denmark
New Zealand
Mexico
Finland
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The center lost in:
Australia
The US
Colombia (didnt even get to the runoff)
Argentina (Macri got a solid defeat from the center-left peronists)
Poland
Chile (the centrist Guiller got into the runoff instead of the leftist Sanchez, costing them the election against the right wing)
I wouldn't really consider Aussie Labour that much of a centrist party. iirc, NZ Labor is historically more conservative than their Australian counterparts and my read on Shorten was that he was sort of a normie socdem but maybe that's wrong.
also Poland is sort of funny (except not really because the situation is kinda bleak) because the center and center left DID break the majority in their upper house which will have some checks on PiS finally. But also — two elections ago, the left was COMPLETELY wiped out of the Sejm. You're actually seeing a resurgence of the left/center left with Wiosna
I need a new hobby hmm
also Poland is sort of funny (except not really because the situation is kinda bleak) because the center and center left DID break the majority in their upper house which will have some checks on PiS finally. But also — two elections ago, the left was COMPLETELY wiped out of the Sejm. You're actually seeing a resurgence of the left/center left with Wiosna
I need a new hobby hmm
NZ's Labour, Denmark's Social Democrats, Portugal's Socialist Party and Finland's Finn Party are centre left, not left.
Eeh, Melenchon beating Le Pen was far less of a certainty. Dude is batshit insane.
Sure he is but he was also ahead by a lot in every H2H poll. A Le Pen was never going to be president of France because they're a Le Pen and nothing Marine could do besides burning her father alive could have stopped her losing.
His personal politics aside he was a creature of the Labor right and the election campaign he ran was pretty pathetic from a leftist perspective, couldn't even commit to increasing Newstart.
I don't think you quite understand what is being argued
Then what are you arguing?
Not every country has the same political parameters for "left."
The hatred for Le Pen would probably have carried him through, yes. In the last poll before the first round his h2h with Le Pen was just 54-46, though, compared to Macron's 30 point advantage.
Saying the "centre" lost in Australia is extremely misleading.
The Australian left went to the election with the most progressive election platform in Australian history. The Conservatives were a shambles at the time and the Left thought they could put forward a once in a generation progressive platform, which tackled climate change and inter-generational tax inequalities.
Unfortunately, their tax credit reform pissed off boomers, their housing tax reform pissed off the upper and middle classes, their climate change policies caused them to hemorrhage seats in coal country, their leader was extremely unpopular (who to be fair was a centrist), and their articulated policies were picked apart each day by the media (i.e. they were "Elizabeth Warrened").
If anything, the Australia election is one that should be studied by Americans regarding what can go wrong if you put forward too many big ideas.
Oh and if you mean far left then you should be aware we have ranked and compulsory voting in Australia, and they did even worse in the election.
it literally makes no sense. Biden has a plurality of black support because black people know Biden will need black support to win? The same applies to literally every other democrat running. That doesn't explain why they've chosen to back Joe Biden to begin with.
The presumed GOP frontrunner for NY-19 (Delgado) has dropped out after Marc Molinaro wouldn't enter the race earlier this week
As far as NZ Labour go, they are pretty "left"
I didn't say they weren't on the left, centre left parties don't all look like Democrats. Getting achievements like that is easier than in America. You can't just randomly point at a left wing party winning and claim that they're leftists, it's not how this works.
edit: To expand on Ben's point the Australian Greens got 6 seats in 2019 and didn't have a leader between 1990-2007.
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All I'm pointing out is NZ Labour (that is, the current Labour, and not the Labour of the 80s-00s) is "left", and not the "centre left" they used to be. What implications that has for the "rising right" and what it might mean for the US election other people can argue.
JuDiCiAl wAtCh is STILL hunting down those dastardly buttery males even after so many years
Had Layton not died we'd have gotten a NDP federal majority. The Liberals are economic centrists, arguably Center right even, but socially left. The idea that centrism is what you need to defeat right wing populism is flat out wrong. Pointing to Corbyn is such a straw man as well. Third wayers are largely responsible for creating the conditions that gave rise to Trump.
We're largely in this mess because of third way centrism that prioritized the status quo at all costs. Among other problems with third wayers, aside from an almost pathological prioritizing of right wing voters, is how they have tended to embrace austerity in the name of 'fiscal conservatism'.
Always a great tool to cut social programs and hobble centrist governments that want to veer too far to the left. We largely have the scars of austerity to thank for the rise of right wing populism across Europe, as in Britain you can track a pretty direct correlation between support for right wing extremism and the severity of austerity impact. Third wayers are so obsessed with continuing the facade that everything is functioning as normal, everything is 'good', 'America is already great', that they end up pushing peole out of their own tents because of it. The right capitalizes on this by tapping into every negative and toxic impulse that a person has, and lets them blame the 'other', which is easier and more convenient than 'the system is kind of shit' particularly if a person hasn't been given the education or upbringing to not already harbour ignorant opinions.
We're largely in this mess because of third way centrism that prioritized the status quo at all costs. Among other problems with third wayers, aside from an almost pathological prioritizing of right wing voters, is how they have tended to embrace austerity in the name of 'fiscal conservatism'.
Always a great tool to cut social programs and hobble centrist governments that want to veer too far to the left. We largely have the scars of austerity to thank for the rise of right wing populism across Europe, as in Britain you can track a pretty direct correlation between support for right wing extremism and the severity of austerity impact. Third wayers are so obsessed with continuing the facade that everything is functioning as normal, everything is 'good', 'America is already great', that they end up pushing peole out of their own tents because of it. The right capitalizes on this by tapping into every negative and toxic impulse that a person has, and lets them blame the 'other', which is easier and more convenient than 'the system is kind of shit' particularly if a person hasn't been given the education or upbringing to not already harbour ignorant opinions.
I haven't been clean-shaven in 4.5 years, I'm currently drinking while my 15-year-old cat lays on my lap, and I've been encouraged to run for local office by multiple people. Are my ears burning?
That wild 1800s beard is awesome. I can see him as a union commander. with a cat.
Corbyn is going to be the go-to go left failure for a long time because he's an easy example and it's difficult for the left to refute since he embodied what many leftists want in a Democratic party. That's the result of alienating non-leftists in a mainstream party, being very arrogant with their true potential (which happens on the right, too, look at Romney), thinking the country is more left than it is and valuing loyalty over competence. The left don't get to put Corbyn down the memory hole because he's inconvenient to their cause now.
What's strange about Corbyn is that a mistake he made was being centrist about Brexit of all things! But I don't see this happening with Bernie, maybe gun regulations?
Third Way centrist aren't responsible for Trump, either. They provided a bigger fight against him and the GOP then the left ever did. I'm not buying that it's common sense the left is supposed to be our saviour here you're framing it is without backing it up with facts on the ground. Where the fuck were the left in all these decades in congress and presidency? If they're as strong as you imply why are the centrists and moderates constantly eating their lunch when it comes to electing politicians? Liberals were able to gain a Speakership, and they were loathed by centrists for decades, too. So why couldn't the left do the same?
What created Trump was decades of propaganda and building a large network by the GOP itself. Reagan, HW and George W Bush all lead directly to him, as well as Fox News.
Third Way centrists may be assholes but they knew how to win elections in the US more than the left ever did and still do. They're more to the left these days than the 90's. You misunderstand why centrists are doing, they didn't go to the right because they wanted to they did it as a matter of political relevance on the national scale, which worked! That's the core of Third Way centrism. This ignores why they value right wing voters more than leftists, since right wing voters have power while the left don't. Because they vote in numbers to not get ignored and have enormous political engines the Democrats and the left don't have access to. Nope, they're not doing austerity because they like it, the people in the Democrats who believe that are conservatives (Blue Dogs to be precise, and they're not modern day centrists) centrists and liberals reluctantly do this because they prefer some progress over nothing.
What pray tell is on the table besides the status quo, btw? You left that out of your argument. You're selling something so sell us.
It's not as black and white as you're explaining, and the people weren't pushed out many factions wanted them to come in but they refused to join the party unless they ran it, and when they get told they don't have that power in the party they don't take it well. This is a result when voters value being outsiders to the "establishment." You're either an outsider or a Democrat, many people want to be both.
This is partially why the Justice Democrats are having troubles as we speak, some of them pushed too far when many people in the party were desperately warning them not to put the fork in outlet and they get pissed off at the people who are trying to save them when they electrocuted.
The right have a great many tools within society to leverage politics for them than this in America. Like in the UK they control the media and have enormous pressure in social groups like churches and patriarchal attitudes, and a system built in their interests which they've manipulated further into there clutches. Democrats haven't had the political might or the years required to pull back 1/10th of it within the government, whether it be in police, the courts, the military and more.
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He is not. Why are you saying that ? I'm curious. But sure he is more of a fighter than Corbyn... Which is what we need to fight the establishment (though I think he's done).
Simplistic view. You can't generalize internal politics. There's no Brexit in America. Labour was in an impossible position too, demographically speaking. The Dems don't have that problem. Corbyn was an historically unpopular candidate that was underwater popularity wise even with sympathizers of his own party. Meanwhile, not a single Democrat running has that problem and specially not Bernie. You might want to perhaps compare Tulsi with Corbyn and the comparison would be more accurate.
France? Melenchon would have won over Le Pen too with less impressive margins than Macron but still. (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._election_melenchon_vs_le_pen-6200-embed.html)
You could say the PSOE in Spain was more unapologetically leftist than centrist, too. Then there are wins in Argentina, Mexico and Bolsonaro probably losing had Lula being allowed to run.
Canada? That also has their own unique breed of local politics with the implosion of the NDP.
What I am saying is that when it comes to rejecting fascism, both centrists and leftistS options might work, but it will ultimately depend on the local politics of the country rather than some dumb dumb like "uummm what if Corbyn = Bernie? Lol I am smart".
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The olds are major source of our issues and gnashing of teeth.
To the home with all of them!
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Her entry is honestly the least aggressive and most friendly.
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Corbyn thought he had an advantage over the Tories, as well.
Bernie doesn't control shit with his narratives, and he's going to be in for a rude awakening when he faces the onslaught of the GOP. They will be the ones who'll shift the narratives since they have greater control over media, whether it be social, or mainstream. He couldn't even do this with Hillary Clinton but you think he'll do it with Trump.
Bernie is not Corbyn c'mon now.
Bernie can win over old people with hard candies and home visits. Volunteers should go to retirement homes and listen attentively to old people's musings and ramblings. They'll feel appreciated and vote for the man who stole their heart.
Democratic voters threw warren off of a cliff just because they found out she was going to take their private insurance away, imagine what they'll do to Sanders when they find out that, on top of taking away their private insurance, he's going to raise their taxes and give it to the <Insert whatever group of people you dislike> .
I've seen it explained a few times like this: older black voters pick their candidate based on 1) who will do them the least harm, and 2) who is most likely to win.
These voters are less likely to go for disruptive or shake-up candidates because a loss poses greater risk for them. These voters don't feel like they've ever been a political priority and don't feel like most politicians represent their needs and interests so they weigh who is most likely to win against who is least threatening and choose based on that.
In this election, that's perceived to be Joe Biden.
This also explains why some candidates have low support among these demographics but high favorables.
But I am not an expert, have no source, and am not black so maybe I'm putting my foot in my mouth here. This is how I've seen it described online by people in a position to understand it, though.
For what it's worth, I also anecdotally know a bunch of older LGBT with a similar attitude. They don't like to take major and disruptive political risks because losing could mean having their rights stripped away and setting them back decades worth of progress. They support the candidate who is the safest bet because gambling on a disruptive candidate could be catastrophic. I'm LGBT so this much I can speak to with some first-hand familiarity.
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I stopped blaming black folk for voting for Biden a long time ago. Much like Trump winning; I just understood why things are the way they are by sitting down and just listening.
The twitter joke "Ancient Black proverb: I told ya'll" isn't really a joke in my eyes. It's just a truth. Black folk ain't voting for Biden because they love him or they think they're getting Obama but white. They're mostly voting for him to be pragmatic. He's the safe, won't fuck them over option. If Bernie wins, it'll be about the white working class helping the dems win; "We gotta fight for them now!". Hence why a lot of black voters turn their nose up against leftists/socialists. Not only does it "smell" like you might not help them but your positions are risky and may cost them more.
Of course, this all falls apart if we do elect Biden and still lose. Then I think it's time to just say "the hell with it" and go crazy.
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