Observing the donations he's received across IL by district, he dominates the majority of districts.
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US PoliEra 2019 |OT9| I'm really glad I'm not on Twitter nearly enough to understand all the references
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Observing the donations he's received across IL by district, he dominates the majority of districts.
Also from (northern) Indiana and I used to think the same, but I'm not really convinced it's the whole story.
Since graduating high school, I know plenty of people from my hometown who work in the factories now (where pretty much everyone there works). There's a sizable amount of black and latinx people working alongside them in those factories, but if anything it seems like that only makes their racism even more overt once they clock out and go back to their social media/social circles. Socialization/exposure, at least in the work environment, has done nothing to mitigate these people's virulent bigotry. I can't imagine going to college would have "fixed" these people anymore than the diverse work environment did(n't).
Granted, my school system was at least 95% white, while there were schools 20 minutes away in South Bend that are overwhelmingly non-white. So maybe socialization and exposure at a younger age would help a lot, but it seems like by the time most of these people are 18, they're irredeemably shitty.
I said earlier I'd reconsider my support for Warren based on those polls, but I've cooled down a bit.
If Biden's all he's cracked up to be, he'll have no problem winning without my vote. And of course, if he wins the nomination, I will do my part to help him keep Minnesota blue (something I took for granted in 2016 and came very close to being burned on). Until then, it's Warren, baby.
She's starting to play that game again. Gideon and the DSCC need to keep hammering her on Kavanaugh, the anti-choice judges, and McConnell.
That really depends on Chicagoland, Quad Cities, Champaign, and the Metro East
Gotta throw Biden, Warren, Pete in as well
What a fucking joke. Vote with Dems when it only benefits you. What a snob
Hilton is a conspiracy loon. Harf worked for the state department and says there's no evidence for the crazy shit the dude is saying.
Justin Baragona @justinbaragona
So, ummm, WOW!
Fox News host Steve Hilton straight-up accuses his Fox News colleague Marie Harf of "covering up the corruption" of the Bidens in Ukraine because she worked at the State Dept during the Obama years.
"Are you kidding me?!?!" Harf yells at one point.
12:38 PM - Nov 4, 2019
So, ummm, WOW!
Fox News host Steve Hilton straight-up accuses his Fox News colleague Marie Harf of "covering up the corruption" of the Bidens in Ukraine because she worked at the State Dept during the Obama years.
"Are you kidding me?!?!" Harf yells at one point.
12:38 PM - Nov 4, 2019
I mean, yeah, it's easy to vote against Trump when you vote doesn't matter
Maggie Haberman @maggieNYTNEW - at a recent dinner of Republicans, RNC aides said they'd had a robocall effort to overwhelm House Democrats phones,
Per two ppl briefed. RNC, asked about the calls, says it was live caller surveys connected voters to members. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/us/politics/impeachment-republican-national-committee.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share … via @NYTimes
Per two ppl briefed. RNC, asked about the calls, says it was live caller surveys connected voters to members. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/us/politics/impeachment-republican-national-committee.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share … via @NYTimes
6:01 PM - Nov 4, 2019
If Biden wins, he probably needs to pick Whitmer. She can solidify MI (even though I think it's better than the Siena poll indicates) and probably boost him a bit in WI and PA. And if he's leading in AZ on his own, even more insurance.
People said the same thing about Hillary in 2016 ("if she's really going to win, then she'll win anyway"). Hillary lost.
It's not just about what you want. It's about what's best for the party and for the country.
If we're still seeing these numbers in 3 months, then I'd say continuing to vote for Warren is inviting serious risk at a time when we really can't afford it. Especially since the primary and general are so different with a divided electorate (we do not want to get into the position where the only person who could win a primary couldn't ever win a general).
*cue Michiganders getting upset about losing the New Queen of the North*
That's baseless fear-mongering. Sanders or Warren can bring out a high turnout of voter enthusiasm. Why settle for the safe pick when you can (for once) choose a candidate who inspires significant change?
everything you're seeing in these polls will be compounded by the fact that independent, middle america hates 'smart' 'liberals'. everything about warren we like is not going to be received well by a lot of people. we're in populist times and your rhetoric needs to have an enemy to call out that isn't just 'republicans.' bernie's millionaihs and billionaih shtick lands with that hunger for populism and is the perfect response to trump's right-wing, immigrant-scapegoating messaging
I mean, I should hope it's clear that "Biden can win without my vote" is a statement that applies exclusively to the primary.
If Biden loses the primary, then I don't think he would have been a very impressive candidate.
Don't say we when you don't mean it! I feel like this comment demonstrates you don't know much about Warren's campaign.
Warren shit talks the millionaires and billionaires a ton as well, second only to Sanders. Last thing I think of when I see Warren is a rich elite.
Biden is still somewhat high on the name association with Obama. The later debates will prove how his (lack of) policies will define him in the eyes of people.
You don't see how a candidate could fail in a Democratic primary (among a subset of only Democratic voters) but still be favored in a general?
Because if not, I think it puts a lot of your other impressions and analyses in a very unflattering light.
The debates aren't mattering and will continue not to matter. The polling after the last debate showed that people thought Biden did well.
I disagree. They don't matter now, but when it's only Biden, Sanders, and Warren on the stage, with the latter two hammering Biden with criticism, he will fall like a stack of cards.
man i do. just cus i like bernie doesnt mean i dont like warren. ive donated to her. if sanders gets the nomination, you know warren is in the running for his VP choice too. vote bernie you get both
I doubt it. The average person watching these debates are getting a very different impression of what's occurring then people here or in the Twitter bubble.
Because if it doesn't pan out you have 4 more years of Trump.
I vastly prefer either Bernie or Warren to Biden but I don't get completely downplaying the fear of nominating them either. There's a lot more at stake now than there was in 2016.
Warren is literally the the most populist candidate right now lol. Literally her first message on her website, the first thing she brings up in every appearance, is ending Washington corruption. She's railing against the rich elites. She's tackling the stranglehold money has on our politics. What is more populist than that????
Why does it feel like everyone pretends Democrats can't play to their base and then pivot toward the center at least in messaging and theme?
Democrats and Republicans have done it in the past, but now we're getting this sky is falling shit because a message meant to woo primary voters might not be the best in the general? No one ever seems to complain when Republicans say some shit that would turn off a huge portion of the country.
Democrats and Republicans have done it in the past, but now we're getting this sky is falling shit because a message meant to woo primary voters might not be the best in the general? No one ever seems to complain when Republicans say some shit that would turn off a huge portion of the country.
Bernie going up 4 points in Biden Consult's Early States poll. Can we say Berniementum!?
Is Warren peaking? Seems like it!
Is Warren peaking? Seems like it!
Biden is currently leading national polling in the Democratic primary by more than 8 points.
Him somehow blowing that would not fill me with confidence about his electability in a general election, which is allegedly his greatest strength!
I'm going to say something about Warren's messaging that I've said in the past about her in regards to black voters, but now I'm wondering, looking at these numbers, if it might be worth widening the tent on my opinion
Her "You don't get what you don't fight for" style of messaging is inherently elitist. It's almost disrespectful in tone to the people out there who view just getting by day-to-day as a "fight."
if I were a person of color in her camp with sway, I'd be shouting that right about now.
Her "You don't get what you don't fight for" style of messaging is inherently elitist. It's almost disrespectful in tone to the people out there who view just getting by day-to-day as a "fight."
if I were a person of color in her camp with sway, I'd be shouting that right about now.
I think both these takes are partially true. The impact of the debate on the average viewer is relatively muted (although the impact of individual clips is higher).
Where the debates really matter is in the behavior of high-value donors and party elites, and among these people, the debates have already done a lot to shake Biden's position. The problem is that these people can't go to Bernie or Warren because they aren't running donor-driven campaigns! Hence, the evidence of Biden's loss of position is mostly demonstrated by Buttigieg's advance. He's their last hope.
Personally speaking, for better or worse, I've always approached voting as what my heart believes is best for the working class. Losses will happen with a safe pick and a risky pick. To me, it's better to vote with conviction, not pragmatism.
old man bernie serves one term and makes warren his vp. Bernie 2020-24. warren 24-32. tha dream baby
he's gonna. AOC and squad will campaign with him in new york and california (where their endorsement actually matters) and he can win there too. but he still wont get enough to get the nom and there'll be a brokered convention probably and shit will suck
To be clear, she's played the same game as Manchin here. She only votes with dems when the bill is guaranteed to suceed/fail without her vote. It ain't slick, but somehow it still plays well in their states.
Holy crap, I grew up about 20 minutes from South Bend too, small world.
I don't have much experience in a factory setting (~three years, and I made it a point not to socialize) but in retail the minority co-workers weren't particularly singled out (that was mostly reserved for people higher up the food chain). I do wonder if in a factory setting where there's a lot more entry/low level workers with a handful of managers vs. retail where there's more of a hierarchy of grunts / dept. leaders / supervisors / managers has some impact, where your upward mobility means more direct competition with your co-workers.
The timing may also play a factor here; I grew up in the 90's and didn't leave until 2008, and I remember when I started working as a teenager there were a lot of hispanic immigrants just starting to move into the area and immigration was just starting to become a "local problem." I can't imagine what those towns are like now after the recession and rise of the Tea Party (I have visited, but not socialized) but I imagine they didn't get worse, really, but the racism that was already there came to the surface more.
One thing I didn't include in my earlier post but should have; being exposed to different people via the internet was my main source of exposure to outside ideals. The ugly anti-islamic bullshit that swept my co-workers and acquaintances after 9/11 was completely nullified by having an Islamic friend on AOL. Meeting LGBT folks through GAF and MMOs also helped immensely, though by that point I feel like I was already pretty tolerant from previous experience and only had a few blind spots.
I mean if you want to throw out all the polling we have then sure.
Similar thing happened in Florida.
Gillum won the dem primary out of nowhere
I think I'm moving towards the Bernie camp rn. He's got a lot of problems (M4A is gonna be an election loser), but he seems to be safer bet than Warren. Biden screams paper tiger.
Everyone wrote Bernie off in 2016 due to the polling.
And they were completely fucking right to do so.
And he's now polling only a third of his 2016 level!
Warren's OK roots are showing up on the campaign trail a lot more than expected.
no he won't
anyone who wins 3/4 states wins the primary. Everything after that will be a formality. That goes for anyone
So we getting Biden aren't we? u_u Which means Trump's chances are looking better by the minute.
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