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Sky Chief

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,380
Put this way the problem is really obvious
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Make college compulsory or whatever

Stupid people are stupid. Stupid people don't go to college. Stupid people are easily swayed by Trump. College isn't magically going to make stupid people not stupid.
 

ValiantChaos

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,112
I wouldn't get too ahead of myself here.

For one thing, I don't think anything about Collins' loss is "near guaranteed." She's definitely and obviously suffered over the last couple of years, but Maine isn't that much of a hard left state, Clinton only won it by three points or so. The margin might be better for the Dem nominee next year, but Collins only needs to hold onto a little bit of her mojo to crack a majority, since if nothing else she'll have a high floor of Republican support.

Gardner on the other hand I think is a slam dunk pickup (as close as can be reasonably assumed), but I feel the same about Alabama for the Republicans, so it's essentially a trade - it doesn't quite help our Senate math as much as one would assume.

We got a great candidate in Arizona, but that's still a state that's several points to the nation's right. I believe Sinema won by two points in an environment that was around D+8 overall? I'm confident but I'd put it closer to a tossup than leaning Kelly's way, though that could certainly change.

And then we still need to win North Carolina, or failing that, Iowa, Georgia or Texas, each representing a significant level up in difficulty over the last.

A Democratic president getting sworn in with only 48-49 senators is a very real possibility

Senate prospects are better than 18 but that's not saying much. We're still dealing with states with slight R leans and have everything to go our way to barely scrape by 50-50 or 51-49. The Senate sitiuation sucks man. We are at a huge disadvantage there. The electoral college is trash and a tie there or a Trump win is gonna destroy this country for good
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936

The source said a decision had been taken to fire Kulyk for failing to show up for an exam that all employees of the General Prosecutor's Office have been ordered to pass to keep their jobs during a clean-up of the prosecution service.

Prosecutor General Ruslan Ryaboshapka has already fired more than 400 prosecutors, or around a third of all staff.

Some prosecutors have told Reuters that many of those sacked had refused to sit the exam in protest at what they see as a purge designed to cement new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's political control of the service.
Circumstance around all this are mixed at best, but –

...I'm fairly sure this is the guy Trump was telling Zelenskiy to keep during the call.

PoliERA |OT9| Ok asshole, question:
Ha. I'm not worthy, however.
 
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Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,932
Stupid people are stupid. Stupid people don't go to college. Stupid people are easily swayed by Trump. College isn't magically going to make stupid people not stupid.
It's not just stupidity it's stupidity + racism.

Unless White Americans have a monopoly on all of the country's abundant supply of stupidity.
 

hurlex

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,143
He's saying that college educate individuals have a well-documented tendency to respond to pollsters more than people without a college degree (for any number of reasons, maybe they have more time, maybe hey're more used to their opinion mattering, maybe they're more interested in abstract questions of opinion, they're definitely more invested in politics as a whole. Basically, there's an observed tendency for this to happen, probably for the same reason college educated folk turn out for elections more, as well). Good pollsters will take a more representative census sample of the proportion of college educated person in that state, then use statistical techniques to figure out what their respondents would have said -if- they had en educational profile that was in line with the state as a whole.

Is that not something most polls have been doing for years? Why was the 2016 election so sensitive to this compared to previous years?
 

chadskin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,013
Circumstance around all this are mixed at best, but –

...I'm fairly sure this is the guy Trump was telling Zelenskiy to keep during the call.
No, that was Lutsenko. Zelensky had already indicated to the media he wanted to fire him and then did so shortly after the July 25 phone call. And we now know why Trump didn't want him to fire Lutsenko:

 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,732
@kaitlancollins
Trump claimed today he doesn't really know Marie Yovanovitch, says Zelensky wasn't a fan of hers but "I'm sure she's a very fine woman."

He brought up her first on the July 25 call, called her "bad news" and said "the people she was dealing with in the Ukraine were bad news."
16:28 - 4 Nov 2019
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,606
Stupid people are stupid. Stupid people don't go to college. Stupid people are easily swayed by Trump. College isn't magically going to make stupid people not stupid.
There are stupid people in college.

I think the college-educated vs. non-educated filter has to less do with who's smart and who's dumb, and more to do with:

white people that go to college are more likely to be exposed to people outside of their WWC circle.
 

Sky Chief

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,380
There are stupid people in college.

I think the college-educated vs. non-educated filter has to less do with who's smart and who's dumb, and more to do with:

I guess that's true but I also think that stupid people are more open to racist ideas because they feel extremely threatened by others who are equally or more qualified and can only rely on their ethnicity to "stay ahead"
 

Deleted member 3082

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,099
Probably late to the discussion on thus and my anecdotal experience isn't gospel but... As someone who grew up in rural Indiana, it's not about college education, it's about being exposed to outside influences. The education they need is a sense of the world outside their communities.

I went to school with plenty of genuinely smart, friendly people who were also completely ass backwards because they'd never ventured outside their lily white bubbles except for a week or two visiting places like Chicago or Indianapolis and as a rule, sticking to the "safe" (read: white) parts of said cities. These are folks who had never been around an (out) LGBT individual, for whom Latinx and African American people were distant, far-off people who you only heard of in problematic terms on the local news, stealing jobs and making cities unsafe.

I'm not justifying people being racist (a vote for a Republican, or even abstaining from voting is still a vote for pure evil in the times we live in), just explaining how in 2019 we have such backward ass people; they live in bubbles that sustain generation after generation of ignorance.

Edit: I'm not sure how you fix it, since it requires people to live, work and learn along side people from outside their bubble. But since there's little to no incentive for minorities to move into white communities it rarely seems to happen (and when it does, those people are viewed as invaders, there to take jobs or commit crimes), I think the only other option is to get white people out of their bubble. The only thing that seems to work is pop cultural osmosis, but that takes a long time and is being counteracted by the way people consume media now vs. the late 90s/early 00s.
 
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Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,052
Senate prospects are better than 18 but that's not saying much. We're still dealing with states with slight R leans and have everything to go our way to barely scrape by 50-50 or 51-49. The Senate sitiuation sucks man. We are at a huge disadvantage there. The electoral college is trash and a tie there or a Trump win is gonna destroy this country for good

Let's be real- Even if the Dems can eke out a 51-49 or 50-50, there is not enough support to kill the filibuster. It's just not realistic.

So the most we can hope for is to stop the bleeding- We simply cannot have another Trump administration for 4 years. That's why I care a little less about the Senate than most here... Not as if anything of import is going to be passed. Not in 2020, and not for a long time afterwards.

As someone who grew up in rural Indiana, it's not about college education, it's about being exposed to outside influences.

Yep. I can attest to this myself, as my high school was obscenely white. Going to a state university truly opened me to new cultures and people... I can honestly say that its this exposure that makes college completely worth it, forgetting all of the doors it has opened for my career.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,606
I guess that's true but I also think that stupid people are more open to racist ideas because they feel extremely threatened by others who are equally or more qualified and can only rely on their ethnicity to "stay ahead"
Racism is not just something people are manipulated into though. There are plenty of traditionally educated, wealthy, powerful white people who are not economically threatened by non-white people but are still racist because they just don't like black and brown people. The White House is currently filled with many of these knowing and willing racists!
 

Doof

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,434
Kentucky
As someone who grew up in rural Indiana, it's not about college education, it's about being exposed to outside influences.

I went to school with plenty of genuinely smart, friendly people who were also completely ass backwards because they'd never ventured outside their lily white bubbles except for a week or two visiting places like Chicago or Indianapolis and as a rule, sticking to the "safe" (read: white) parts of said cities. These are folks who had never been around an (out) LGBT individual, for whom Latinx and African American people were distant, far-off people who you only heard of in problematic terms on the local news, stealing jobs and making cities unsafe.

I'm not justifying people being racist (a vote for a Republican, or even abstaining from voting is still a vote for pure evil in the times we live in), just explaining how in 2019 we have such backward ass people; they live in bubbles that sustain generation after generation of ignorance.

I'm from Kentucky, but yeah it's this exactly. People are never exposed to anyone markedly different than themselves in these little podunk lily white towns, so they turn into massive dumbasses who fear what they don't understand.
 

AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,936
No, that was Lutsenko. Zelensky had already indicated to the media he wanted to fire him and then did so shortly after the July 25 phone call. And we now know why Trump didn't want him to fire Lutsenko:


Thank you for the clarification! I apparently am confusing one Ukrainian prosecutor who met with Giuliani with another?
 

VectorPrime

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
11,781
I think people panicking about one damn poll an entire year out from the election have to take a breath, look at the political landscape, and ask themseves the simple question of "do you really think anything is going to get better for Trump from this point?" Because I think it's all gradually down hill for him from here. The economy is not going to get better, in fact it's very likely going to get noticeably worse as the edges become more and more frayed risking a general collapse. The impeachment has only just begun and it's clearly an albatross around his neck. And every day more people just become more and more tired of his bullshit and want it to just stop.

There's a long time until the election and Trump has so much time to continue to ruin himself. And considering we don't even have a candidate to rally around yet it makes sense that independent leaning Dems are being indecisive at the moment and Trump has an edge having all his support already shown up. So when there is a candidate they will finally be able to work toward constructively closing that gap.
 

No Depth

Member
Oct 27, 2017
18,266
I guess that's true but I also think that stupid people are more open to racist ideas because they feel extremely threatened by others who are equally or more qualified and can only rely on their ethnicity to "stay ahead"

Don't forget an entire propaganda machine is designed to create scapegoats out of everything that threatens the power of a certain political party.

Pointing blame for all of life's problems on foreign devils, Dems, elite coastals, minorities, etc... has a double effect of providing a tangible and simple solution to complicated issues that uneducated and misinformed individuals grasp onto with ease, while also propagating intense mistrust and loathing...which feeds racism and bigotry.

It's absolute corruption at its most dangerous level. Often has led to many of history's worst power plays.
 

Casa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,501
I think people panicking about one damn poll an entire year out from the election have to take a breath, look at the political landscape, and ask themseves the simple question of "do you really think anything is going to get better for Trump from this point?" Because I think it's all gradually down hill for him from here. The economy is not going to get better, in fact it's very likely going to get noticeably worse as the edges become more and more frayed risking a general collapse. The impeachment has only just begun and it's clearly an albatross around his neck. And every day more people just become more and more tired of his bullshit and want it to just stop.

There's a long time until the election and Trump has so much time to continue to ruin himself. And considering we don't even have a candidate to rally around yet it makes sense that independent leaning Dems are being indecisive at the moment and Trump has an edge having all his support already shown up. So when there is a candidate they will finally be able to work toward constructively closing that gap.
I suppose getting things like a big China trade deal, something actually significant in regards to NK, and maybe an infrastructure bill done in the lead up to November could seriously bump him up.

All of those things seem very unlikely right now, though.
 

VectorPrime

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
11,781
I suppose getting things like a big China trade deal, something actually significant in regards to NK, and maybe an infrastructure bill done in the lead up to November could seriously bump him up.

All of those things seem very unlikely right now, though.

Voters don't really care about NK especially after the whole issue has been watered down by two Trump PEACE IN OUR TIME victory laps and there is no chance in hell any Republican sponsored infrastructure bill wouldn't be straight trash hence it'll never pass the House.

And China will play Trump like a drum forever.
 

cameron

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
23,814

Arm Van Dam

self-requested ban
Banned
Mar 30, 2019
5,951
Illinois


Of course it's those dumbfuck Tucows


Jonathan Landay @JonathanLanday

BREAKING @AramRoston w/exclusive: (Reuters) - Lev Parnas, an indicted Ukrainian-American businessman who has ties to Trump's personal lawyer, Giuliani, now prepared to comply w/requests for records and testimony from congressional investigators, his lawyer told Reuters on Monday.

5:04 PM - Nov 4, 2019



I bet Rudy is gonna go on Fox News again and incriminate himself yet again
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I think people panicking about one damn poll an entire year out from the election have to take a breath, look at the political landscape, and ask themseves the simple question of "do you really think anything is going to get better for Trump from this point?" Because I think it's all gradually down hill for him from here. The economy is not going to get better, in fact it's very likely going to get noticeably worse as the edges become more and more frayed risking a general collapse. The impeachment has only just begun and it's clearly an albatross around his neck. And every day more people just become more and more tired of his bullshit and want it to just stop.

There's a long time until the election and Trump has so much time to continue to ruin himself. And considering we don't even have a candidate to rally around yet it makes sense that independent leaning Dems are being indecisive at the moment and Trump has an edge having all his support already shown up. So when there is a candidate they will finally be able to work toward constructively closing that gap.
These polls should be a wake-up call to anyone who thought a landslide Dem victory was inevitable, but the takeaway shouldn't be "we're doomed." It should be "we've got work to do." The election's still a year out. Exactly a year as of yesterday. There hasn't even been one primary election yet. It's a poll, not the final results.

Kondik actually had a tweet about this earlier that I think is very relevant to expectation setting:





One other point in re: NYT-Siena. The numbers are bad for Democrats if your prior belief is that a Dem should be seen as a big favorite over Trump. However --- 1/2

... if your belief is more like my current feeling, which is that the 2020 general is basically a 50-50 proposition but that Trump has some considerable liabilities, then maybe the numbers aren't that bad for Democrats 2/2

I guess what I'm trying to say, perhaps inartfully, is that the polls certainly don't show Trump dead in the water, but they also hardly show him to be in a commanding position

Taking those numbers at face value, Biden would still be a slight favorite - he beats Trump in 5 of the 6 major swing states! And he only needs three of them to win. In fact, if all he did was add Florida to Clinton's map, winning just one of the other five would push him over 270.

Biden is the primary frontrunner, but I do think it's possible (likely?) he loses in the end, and Warren would probably be the nominee in that case. Her results are certainly frustrating, but if she's able to overcome Biden's lead in primary polling, it stands to reason (for me anyway) she can do that to Trump as well. It will be hard work, to be sure, but everyone should have known that going into it. Even with those margins Biden is posting, it would still be hard work!

Not trying to spin away bad results or anything, just trying to give a less fatalistic perspective I guess.
 

Gyro Zeppeli

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,289
You all need to stop panicking and vote what your conscious feels. Don't vote pragmatically in the primary. As long as voter turnout is high next year, I believe Sanders or Warren have a strong chance to be nominated. I view polls as suggestions, not foregone conclusions. People will decide on voting day who will be nominated, ultimately.
 

Casa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,501
Voters don't really care about NK especially after the whole issue has been watered down by two Trump PEACE IN OUR TIME victory laps and there is no chance in hell any Republican sponsored infrastructure bill wouldn't be straight trash hence it'll never pass the House.

And China will play Trump like a drum forever.
I think you're right. But I definitely think Trump will try to scramble some "wins" together next year just to say he did something. I could easily see him totally caving on China just to say he made a massive deal and spin it as a win. If the DOW shoots up that's all itll take for the media to give him credit.
 

PantherLotus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,900
[ ] today feel like political nukes going off left and right and we just can't see the mushroom cloud yet to anyone else?

[ ] if you were running the wide ranging fraud campaign to get trump re 'elected' and your job is to frame stories for the media in a very particular way, you'd be getting a raise after today's NYT polling.

[ ] don't forget the misinformation campaign, the division campaign, and the voter suppression/voter depression campaign are all happening RIGHT NOW.

[ ] I want to stay within the boundaries of our rules here, but I see some gamergate-style amplification and divisiveness with some of the OT threads today!

[ ] the very best thing about today is that it is now beyond doubt that trump is obsessed with 'correcting' the visual of him getting booed at a sports event. i hope that sea of college kids chants ok boomer at that fuckin corpulent rat bastard loser.
 

YaBish

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,340
People freaking out about the battleground polls should definitely find a way to get involved if you're not already. Nothing feels better than volunteering, and your presidential candidate of choice might have an office in your state you can volunteer at.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,276


Jonathan Landay @JonathanLanday

BREAKING @AramRoston w/exclusive: (Reuters) - Lev Parnas, an indicted Ukrainian-American businessman who has ties to Trump's personal lawyer, Giuliani, now prepared to comply w/requests for records and testimony from congressional investigators, his lawyer told Reuters on Monday.

5:04 PM - Nov 4, 2019




I've been thinking about Parnas. I think there is a grid chance his is Rudy's handler. Rudy is pretty much the perfect front. A figurehead that could plausibly get the meetings and make the deals. All the while it's just Parnas who serves as a conduit for the Kremlin.

Fun fact, Parnas, Vindman and Felix Sater have almost identical backgrounds. All were jewish émigrés who's families came over to the US at around the same time. All settled in the same area in New York. Michael Cohen's uncle ran a social club in Brooklyn that was the center of operations for the Mogilecich crime syndicate. Sater's father was a capo and Cohen and Sater grew up as friends. Cohen still partially owned part of the club till 2016.

Vindman stands in stark contrast, of course. It is pretty remarkable how he took such a different path but still somehow ended up entangled with Parnas and Sater schemes decades later.
 

Pooh

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,849
The Hundred Acre Wood
People freaking out about the battleground polls should definitely find a way to get involved if you're not already. Nothing feels better than volunteering, and your presidential candidate of choice might have an office in your state you can volunteer at.
I think the problem for a lot of us is we don't live in battleground states or districts, so you feel kind of helpless. My district voted Clinton by 22 points in 2016 and voted Bernie in the primary.

Stupid people are stupid. Stupid people don't go to college. Stupid people are easily swayed by Trump. College isn't magically going to make stupid people not stupid.
Plenty of stupid people go to college. Take a look at the GOP.
Anyway, what college does is it magically introduces people to some diversity, which makes it harder to convince them of racial boogeymen and things like that.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
I think it depends on when you say a job is killed. Look at it this way, currently many employers offer jobs in both part and full time capacities, right, and the part time positions come with health insurance way less than full time positions generally do. Of course there's employers who offer no insurance to either their full time employees nor their part time employees and there's employers who offer insurance to both. But the take away here is they have the capability to do what they want, now, under the current system. Under Warren's plan all part time workers would still cost their employer the same health cost as their full time workers, meaning from that point on there will be many part time jobs and seasonal jobs that don't come to fruition because they would no longer be cost effective compared to how they are now. Having the tax payer shoulder the burden would change that calculus, an employer would now see a new employee as little more than the sum of their hours worked, and I guess unemployment and the smaller taxes they always have to pay on the backside, but the main thing is is if they only have 20 hours of labor to offer a week under Warren's plan it's going to look a lot more expensive.

Something like the minimum wage is different because it's still by the hour, it's not a mandatory relatively large lump sum per employee that you must pay regardless of hours worked. Obviously an increased minimum wage, health care tax per employee or whatever raises the cost of each employee but usually most businesses already try to run with the amount of people they need, they're not usually sitting on tons of useless unneeded employees, so with an increased minimum wage you're usually saying pay the wage or shut down and most will pay the increased minimum wage and everything works out fine, with a few businesses on the margins falling by the wayside, but it's a net win. Still though, even with an increased minimum wage, if you don't offer health insurance if you have 20 hours you want to offer as a job it pretty much won't cost you more than 20 hours labor. Warren's plan will make that 20 hours of labor plus 98% of whatever their average healthcare cost is. So most likely an employer would hold of on offering positions until it's absolutely necessary so that it's most cost effective. Of course this is what they always do we're just changing the math to where it'd be cost effective for them.

I just don't think it's wrong to say it'll cost jobs, I'd be willing to bet it would. It's simple math. As I said in the thread about her plan, I imagine it'd mainly be part-time jobs lost. I'm sure that some companies may use any bill passing as an opportunity to re-evaluate their staffing but I find that somewhat irrelevant, much like some companies re-evaluated their health care providers and staffing when the AHCA was passed. It's just something that would happen because any large shift in policy will get a bunch of companies to look at this stuff at one time instead of it being staggered around on their own schedules. But the decreased part-time job creation I do think would be a direct effect of Warren's proposal.

Now, like you say, whether that offsets the fact you can run around and say "no middle class tax hike," I dunno. Personally I think it's the wrong way to go about it but without a crystal ball I can't say if it'd get passed a different way. Can't even say it'd get passed this way. I just think it's better to not do the tax that way.

Personally I want the companies that want to play loose with their hours to be free enough to be loose with their hours, I know part-time positions aren't great but I think there'd be a lot of turmoil that would accompany any M4A bill being passed and I think there'll be coming turmoil with self driving vehicles and the like, I want as many jobs as possible out there to lessen the blow.
This was extremely informative, thanks. I still think its probably a fair trade to guarantee healthcare to all people without the political toxicity of middle-class tax increases. The downsides you've pointed out have to be acknowledged though

EIhkULCWwAAX94H


Warren and Sanders are even worse among Likely Voters,

fondly remembering how much shit i got here when i said trump would beat warren.
that said, sanders, and to some extent warren, arent going for just 'likely voters.' with a big enough turnout we can overcome this i think

Michael Moore is gonna be right again, isn't he?
michael moore endorsed bernie sanders, who can win the rust belt
 
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