US PoliEra 2019 |OT9| I'm really glad I'm not on Twitter nearly enough to understand all the references

[thefro]

Focus on Buttigieg's lack of black support seem kind of weird to me. Like he's not destined to do poorly with black voters, especially if he does well in Iowa. And I'm aware that the whole "black people are homophobic and won't support him" discourse is not present on this site, but that's a bad take too that people seem to have.

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In a scenario where Biden implodes and Buttigieg wins Iowa, I don't think Biden's support would move as a block to Warren/Sanders.

Pete's going to have to put the work in but he might be seen as more electable than Warren/Sanders by that point. He's running as more of a moderate and sans Biden, he'd probably get establishment support. He's comfortable talking about his faith which is a plus campaigning in the South. I could see him getting enough support to get the nomination.

It would be quite a bit different than 2008/2016 with African-American support being split between the candidates more evenly.

 

[Blader]

It's honestly hard to believe that there are moderate Democrat voters who will vote for Biden who actually believe Republicans deserve more good faith chances to play along. Are people in our party honestly that stupid or do they just not pay enough attention to know or care?

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Democratic voters are constantly trying to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. Look at the elections of Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. Look at the Democratic-leading rehabilitation of guys like Mitt Romney and George W. Bush. Moderate and even a lot of liberal Dems in this country can't help but think it would be better if the two sides could just work together and maybe we should extend the olive branch first.

 

[TheRuralJuror]

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I'm sorry, but fuck that. No more kowtowing to republicans anymore. I'm sick of the status quo and it's got to change.

 

[Deleted member 1120]

It's honestly hard to believe that there are moderate Democrat voters who will vote for Biden who actually believe Republicans deserve more good faith chances to play along. Are people in our party honestly that stupid or do they just not pay enough attention to know or care?

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They are that stupid and they don't know and they don't care.
Hell of a thing huh?

 

[Aaron]

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The exact 2016 Electoral College map. The only thing that would make it perfect is if the MN Senate were blue.

 

[Sir Tsunami]

This kind of describes every one of the candidates. Including Biden despite having the most support with the demo.

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Yes and no. Dems get the black vote by default, but while we are in the primary season garnering black support matters. The southern primaries will reflect the candidates ability to appeal to the black voter just like it did the last cycle. Gen election is an entirely different beast, as we all know

 

[Steel]

It's honestly hard to believe that there are moderate Democrat voters who will vote for Biden who actually believe Republicans deserve more good faith chances to play along. Are people in our party honestly that stupid or do they just not pay enough attention to know or care?

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The latter. Generally they work in professions where they have to compromise with people they don't like and then apply that on a macro level as to why things don't get done, not putting the two and two together that Republicans are the ones who benefit from the narrative that government doesn't work and are as such incentivised to get nothing done.

 

[Soul Skater]

It's honestly hard to believe that there are moderate Democrat voters who will vote for Biden who actually believe Republicans deserve more good faith chances to play along. Are people in our party honestly that stupid or do they just not pay enough attention to know or care?

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A not insignificant amount of current democrats in the Trump era used to be republican

all those white suburbs didn't flip from deep red to blue in a decade with purely a bunch of new voters showing up. They despite voting against Trump now take the "Deplorable unredeemable Republican" talk personally, and like the both sides work together rhetoric a lot, regardless whether it's aimed at the ones in Washington or not

 

[Joeytj]

The bootyjudge hate is kind of hilarious tbh.

I'm all in forforma at this point but settle down kids.

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As a fellow gay, I would be thrilled of course if Boot Judge got it, but as a progressive and someone who wants to win, I won't. And I truly think Warren is just the better person to lead with her policies and ideology about empowering others and fighting corruption.

And Pete is really angering me with his new found blandness.

 

[Diablos]

The exact 2016 Electoral College map. The only thing that would make it perfect is if the MN Senate were blue.

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We made impressive gains but seeing it as basically 1:1 to the 2016 EC map is somewhat... disturbing

 

[devSin]

We should just expect this kind of bullshit after every single election from here on out, honestly. They're setting the tone for Trump to inevitably reject the 2020 results.

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Re-canvassing a close election is not bullshit.

I don't think there's ever been one where it changed the outcome, but there shouldn't be a problem with requesting it. If we had lost a Democratic state that closely (or had polling that was wildly off), we'd be doing the same thing (and I don't think you'd be complaining or pearl-clutching over that).

 

[JABEE]

I'm glad Sanders voters have high enthusiasm in Iowa. It will make a big difference.

 

[Prodigal Son]

The bootyjudge hate is kind of hilarious tbh.

I'm all in forforma at this point but settle down kids.

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i really really hate him but i want him to stay in the race and thrive for strategic reasons

I'm glad Sanders voters have high enthusiasm in Iowa. It will make a big difference.

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caucuses are bad but bernie does well in them. i dont know/or think he'll win overall but i fully expect him to win iowa if the numbers stay where they are now

 

[MetalGearZed]

As a fellow gay, I would be thrilled of course if Boot Judge got it, but as a progressive and someone who wants to win, I won't. And I truly think Warren is just the better person to lead with her policies and ideology about empowering others and fighting corruption.

And Pete is really angering me with his new found blandness.

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My feelings exactly

 

[Nocturnal]

man just imagine how some parts of the party establishment would totally freak the fuck out if Bernie won IA/NH

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If he wins IA/NH, he is taking NV caucus as well, there is barely a few days between SC and Super Tuesday, so all other campaigns would be stretched thin to cover South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Cali, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont & Virginia. While Sanders has a big army of volunteers, a big cash-on-hand advantage that he doesn't seem to be burning quickly through, a big online operation and his own canvassing Application - which as far as I know no other campaign can really tout. Top it all off with 99% of his donors not being maxed out it would put him in a commanding position going into Nevada, SC and Super Tuesday. Iowa will set the tempo for the Sanders campaign.

 

[RDreamer]

Guilliani keeps tweeting out the admissions here:

 

[adam387]

The bootyjudge hate is kind of hilarious tbh.

I'm all in forforma at this point but settle down kids.

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Right? Goodness gracious.

Warren is not a porcelain doll who needs to be protected. If she gets bodied by a 30 year old mayor of a small town...then that's her fault.if she's that weak of a candidate (and I don't think she is!) then she has no business being the nominee.

 

[maxx720]

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Mike Pompeo's standing within the State Department is damaged and morale is devastatingly low after revelations from the impeachment investigation suggest he prioritized his relationship with President Trump over the well-being of the department

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...and water is wet. Pompeo has always been in this for only for Pompeo. He's been gaming the system from the begging for his own benefit with nary a concern about which boots he has to lick or how much browning of his nose was required.

 

[Steel]

Guilliani keeps tweeting out the admissions here:

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It's funny, because his story before is that his Ukraine work was not about being Trump's defense attorney iirc.

 

[Blader]

Although I'm loathe to see another all-white ticket, I think if Bernie is the nominee Klobuchar would be a good running mate choice for him. In general I think either Bernie or Warren, if nominated, would need to pick a more obviously moderate choice for running mate.

 

[JABEE]

man just imagine how some parts of the party establishment would totally freak the fuck out if Bernie won IA/NH

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There is a legitimate chance this will happen.

 

[YaBish]

From QuinniGOD:

"Enthusiasm: Sanders supporters most excited (52%), followed by Buttigieg (31%), Warren (23%), Biden (19%)."

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As an addendum to this, I dug into the Quinnipiac poll for second choices and what I found was interesting:

Edit: had some thoughts here but I think I read the chart backwards lol

 

[JABEE]

If he wins IA/NH, he is taking NV caucus as well, there is barely a few days between SC and Super Tuesday, so all other campaigns would be stretched thin to cover South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Cali, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont & Virginia. While Sanders has a big army of volunteers, a big cash-on-hand advantage that he doesn't seem to be burning quickly through, a big online operation and his own canvassing Application - which as far as I know no other campaign can really tout. Top it all off with 99% of his donors not being maxed out it would put him in a commanding position going into Nevada, SC and Super Tuesday. Iowa will set the tempo for the Sanders campaign.

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HIs strategy of using his app to build grass roots events versus stationing more buildings in early primary states will pay off.

The infrastructure of his volunteer network is impressive.

Also, Nate Silver was saying the Q polls today are great news for Sanders if Butti stays strong.

 

[AnotherNils]

Guilliani keeps tweeting out the admissions here:

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I don't have the time to keep up with his shit, but hasn't he also claimed he was working for the government in interviews?

Considering he lawyered up, this sounds like a strategy to set-up his attorney-client privilege defense.

 

[Kyra]

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He cannot be the nom.. He must be stopped.

 

[Linkura]

People in Boston protesting Melania's visit to Boston Medical Center today. Second pic is relevant because she was visiting to see the "cuddling" program they have for kids born with drug addictions.

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2019/11/06/melania-trump-boston-medical-center

 

[Steel]

Anyway, if Butti wins one of the first three states, he'll stay in for awhile. If he loses in all three I think that he's out and most his voters go to Warren.

 

[cameron]

Spoiler: TWITTER TEXT

​

Manu Raju @mkraju

Tried to ask GOP Sen. Martha McSally if it was OK for Trump to ask Ukraine to probe the Bidens at a time when aid had been withheld, and her aide stepped in front of her to say: "No comment." She took the long route - around the Capitol and around parked cars - to avoid cameras​

5:14 PM - Nov 6, 2019

 

[MetalGearZed]

Right? Goodness gracious.

Warren is not a porcelain doll who needs to be protected. If she gets bodied by a 30 year old mayor of a small town...then that's her fault.if she's that weak of a candidate (and I don't think she is!) then she has no business being the nominee.

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It really just angers me because I don't view Pete as being able to win the whole primary. I'd feel the same if it was Klob up Iowa. If Warren loses, she loses. But, if someone takes Iowa over Warren or Bernie, the least they can do is win the nomination. Otherwise they're just leaving Biden in a better position.

 

[Deleted member 3082]

Re-canvassing a close election is not bullshit.

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Eh, it doesn't seem that close, and it follows in the footsteps of Roy Moore, refusing to concede in a race with national attention. It feels like they're going to be contesting every single loss, dragging things out and priming the base to reject results they don't like as fake news, etc.

My experience watching Bush v. Gore unfold may color my perception on this issue however.

Edit: It's closer than I thought it was, nevermind. I still think this kind of fuckery will be an issue though.

 

[Nocturnal]

• 21% of Bernie supporters, and 22% of Buttigieg supporters would jump to candidates polling under 15% as their second choice. This doesn't make much sense in practice, as those candidates would likely be broken up in a caucus.
• 39%(!) of Warren supporters would jump to Sanders as a second choice, and 28% to Buttigieg. 35% of Buttigieg supporters would shift to Warren as a second choice. Maybe important numbers for specific precincts in like Des Moines and Ames.
• Buttigieg and Sanders voters top 2nd choices were both Warren.
• Biden's only 2nd choice positive is if Pete bleeds supporters at this point.

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• Bernie supporters are younger, so I'm guessing Yang would be the main beneficiary among those under 15%. For Buttigieg - I'd expect them to be equally split among the other *safe* options
• This confirms that by abandoning Iowa, Biden has handed the keys to Warren and Buttigieg who have eaten away from his support
• Because of what I outlined in the prior point its not surprising that Warren wins the most out of Sanders or Pete faltering
• Biden will continue losing support to Pete in the upcoming months because he doesn't have the finances to compete and his own campaign is keeping his schedule light - which is a losing strategy for both Iowa and New Hampshire

 

[ABC123]

As an addendum to this, I dug into the Quinnipiac poll for second choices and what I found was interesting:

• 21% of Bernie supporters, and 22% of Buttigieg supporters would jump to candidates polling under 15% as their second choice. This doesn't make much sense in practice, as those candidates would likely be broken up in a caucus.
• 39%(!) of Warren supporters would jump to Sanders as a second choice, and 28% to Buttigieg. 35% of Buttigieg supporters would shift to Warren as a second choice. Maybe important numbers for specific precincts in like Des Moines and Ames.
• Buttigieg and Sanders voters top 2nd choices were both Warren.
• Biden's only 2nd choice positive is if Pete bleeds supporters at this point.

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I think you're reading the chart backwards. Of people who support candidates who are polling 5% or less, 22% would go to Butti and 21% would go to Sanders.

Of people who support Sanders, 39% have Warren as their second choice.

At least that's how I'm reading it

 

[Slim Action]

I can easily imagine election night 2020 being like last night in Kentucky, with different parts of like six swing states zigzagging in different directions all at once and no one has any idea what is going on for a few hours. The Needle will explode.

 

[cameron]

Spoiler: TWITTER TEXT

​

Jeff Zeleny @jeffzeleny

Jeff Sessions is poised to announce his comeback Senate candidacy on Thursday, CNN has learned. He faces not only a GOP primary in Alabama, but also President Trump, who has never forgiven Sessions for recusing himself in the Russia probe. Is his fate in Trump's hands?​

5:13 PM - Nov 6, 2019





Rebecca Buck @RebeccaBuck

New from @jeffzeleny: Jeff Sessions will jump into the Alabama Senate race tomorrow, a GOP official familiar tells CNN. Sessions reached his decision over the last several days and hired a consulting firm today, the official said.

Republicans were sending pretty strong signals that they were just fine, thanks, with the primary field as it was. But Sessions wants to return to the Senate, so here we are.

5:13 PM - Nov 6, 2019

 

[Autodidact]

Spoiler: TWITTER TEXT

Manu Raju @mkraju

Tried to ask GOP Sen. Martha McSally if it was OK for Trump to ask Ukraine to probe the Bidens at a time when aid had been withheld, and her aide stepped in front of her to say: "No comment." She took the long route - around the Capitol and around parked cars - to avoid cameras

5:14 PM - Nov 6, 2019

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She is a joke.

 

[Aaron]

We made impressive gains but seeing it as basically 1:1 to the 2016 EC map is somewhat... disturbing

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Blame gerrymandering. Democrats won more votes in the lower house contests in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Iowa is the only one of those states that had nonpartisan maps drawn.

Arizona is also on a knife's edge and could flip next year if the Democrats win the presidency.

 

[Autodidact]

Sessions's comeback bid will flop spectacularly.

 

[Kaitos]

Re-canvassing a close election is not bullshit.

I don't think there's ever been one where it changed the outcome, but there shouldn't be a problem with requesting it. If we had lost a Democratic state that closely (or had polling that was wildly off), we'd be doing the same thing (and I don't think you'd be complaining or pearl-clutching over that).

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Yeah — I mean, I don't think in theory there's an issue with recanvasing here. It's not particularly close, but it's close enough that I get the instinct for anyone to want to double check.

 

[Deleted member 31817]

Spoiler: TWITTER TEXT

​

Jeff Zeleny @jeffzeleny

Jeff Sessions is poised to announce his comeback Senate candidacy on Thursday, CNN has learned. He faces not only a GOP primary in Alabama, but also President Trump, who has never forgiven Sessions for recusing himself in the Russia probe. Is his fate in Trump's hands?​

5:13 PM - Nov 6, 2019





Rebecca Buck @RebeccaBuck

New from @jeffzeleny: Jeff Sessions will jump into the Alabama Senate race tomorrow, a GOP official familiar tells CNN. Sessions reached his decision over the last several days and hired a consulting firm today, the official said.

Republicans were sending pretty strong signals that they were just fine, thanks, with the primary field as it was. But Sessions wants to return to the Senate, so here we are.

5:13 PM - Nov 6, 2019

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Let them fight

 

[Linkura]

You know Trump will endorse Roy Moore over Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III.

 

[MetalGearZed]

Spoiler: TWITTER TEXT

​

Manu Raju @mkraju

Tried to ask GOP Sen. Martha McSally if it was OK for Trump to ask Ukraine to probe the Bidens at a time when aid had been withheld, and her aide stepped in front of her to say: "No comment." She took the long route - around the Capitol and around parked cars - to avoid cameras​

5:14 PM - Nov 6, 2019

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I saw Simply Sue cutting through my backyard to get to her office

 

[shiba5]

Guilliani keeps tweeting out the admissions here:

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But he whipped out his phone on TV and said he'd been working for the State Dept...

 

[Arm Van Dam]

Spoiler: TWITTER TEXT

Jeff Zeleny @jeffzeleny

Jeff Sessions is poised to announce his comeback Senate candidacy on Thursday, CNN has learned. He faces not only a GOP primary in Alabama, but also President Trump, who has never forgiven Sessions for recusing himself in the Russia probe. Is his fate in Trump's hands?

5:13 PM - Nov 6, 2019





Rebecca Buck @RebeccaBuck

New from @jeffzeleny: Jeff Sessions will jump into the Alabama Senate race tomorrow, a GOP official familiar tells CNN. Sessions reached his decision over the last several days and hired a consulting firm today, the official said.

Republicans were sending pretty strong signals that they were just fine, thanks, with the primary field as it was. But Sessions wants to return to the Senate, so here we are.

5:13 PM - Nov 6, 2019

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He'll punish Sessions by endorsing Roy Moore, I just know it

 

[shiba5]

She is a joke.

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The media is just helping her get her steps in.

 

[AnotherNils]

War room paying dividends.

 

[cameron]

Spoiler: twitter text

​

Kathryn Watson @kathrynw5

Matt Bevin says he won't be taking questions at what his campaign billed as a "press conference"

Bevin says there were a lot of irregularities but won't get into the specifics​

5:06 PM - Nov 6, 2019

hasmattbevinconcededyet.com

 

[Steel]

The universe of Iowa polls is basically this:

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which makes it look like Butti is taking from Biden in Iowa to the benefit of Warren.

Or

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Nationally Warren seems to be hurting from a 2% Butti bump and a 2% Sanders bump with Biden flat.

Or, we could look at the economist's average:

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Where Butti's rise seems mostly at the expense of Harris with Biden again flat. Anycase, Butti's bump is more on the state level than a macro one where he's just putting it all in on a state win.

 

[B-Dubs]

I think this is why he'll win Iowa. Just the way caucuses function. This matters the most. If hes only a few points down generic polling wise I think he wins it

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Keep in mind: this was also true last time and he lost

 

[MetalGearZed]

I still support Kentucky Fried Bevin for the new OT title.

 

[Kusagari]

Sessions coming back to get his ass kicked by a CFB coach