• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
I'm going to cut Biden some slack.

Is ego involved? Definitely. Is there a bit of "I paid my dues, and it's my turn"? You betcha.

But I also believe, truly believe, that Biden surveyed the field of candidates, surveyed the electorate as he believed it to be, and decided to run because he really did think he had the best chance of beating Trump.

And I mean, can you blame him? EVERYBODY more or less thought this. Polling demonstrated this (still does). His early donor support demonstrated this. His dominance with the black vote demonstrated this. Hell, back when half you thought "Pocahontas" was DOA, most of you dreaded the idea of Biden getting in the race because you thought this!
Basically

I think he pretty much even said " I won't run if there's someone else I have a lot of confidence in", before making it official.

don't blame him for not having that. I don't either. If he wins then that really says a lot about everyone else
 

Iolo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,896
Britain
I don't think Tulsi had any impact on Harris' poll standings. Harris had a good debate against Biden, since then she's been meh.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
I can see all of this...BUT, I see the youth vote breaking more decisively for Hillary. I can't imagine Hillary taking as much shit for the crime bill while running against the man who authored it and still views it as a positive achievement. On paper, she's also the progressive in a race against Biden.

My fanfiction also has Hillary absolutely butchering Biden on stage over Anita Hill. Like, "cut to commercial!' bad.
Oh god that would be beautiful. Watching her just destroy him for one of the shittiest things he's ever done.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
Hillary's greatest asset was her relationship with Obama and effectively carrying over his coalition.

Biden's relationship with Obama is much closer and I think most people buy that they are actually BFFs where as Hillary and Bams come off more like coworkers or something.

Biden probably beats Hillary last cycle
 

fierygunrob

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 16, 2018
299
GlaringUntidyCanary-size_restricted.gif


It's your dime.
UnacceptableLongKangaroo-size_restricted.gif
 

Teggy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,892
Absolute traitors. And Jeanine is like, "yeah, what's up with Mitch McConnell saying he has to have a trial?"

 

Deleted member 3896

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,815
At dinner before a movie with my partner in Hollywood and just ran into... Adam Schiff!

We geeked out and chatted with him and thanked him for his work. He was about to see Ad Astra and we all said we were skipping Joker. He quipped that he deals with enough of those at his job.

Super nice guy, personable and funny. Holy shit I don't get star struck but I was completely tongue tied :P
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
At dinner before a movie with my partner in Hollywood and just ran into... Adam Schiff!

We geeked out and chatted with him and thanked him for his work. He was about to see Ad Astra and we all said we were skipping Joker. He quipped that he deals with enough of those at his job.

Super nice guy, personable and funny. Holy shit I don't get star struck but I was completely tongue tied :P
!!!!!!!!!!
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,960
South Carolina
They couldn't even get Miller? Shit is serious.



Good. Dems should be on there (and former career LE/IC/etc officials learned in the stuff we're neck-deep in here like Rangappa and Brennan) spreading the TRUTH and FACTS to counter the constant lying and security blanket stories.

Guiliani and Nunberg's time to shine

He's in Kosovo.


That actually makes me worried, as that almost ensures some of these mobby morons are there to fuck with their democracy too.
 

Ogodei

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,256
Coruscant
The fact she's still in the cult will basically destroy any attacks she tries to make. She has to know that.

Only the Very Online know about this. Her opponents will have to clap against her in a way that won't come off as an explanation (no time to establish the context of her awfulness) and also won't look like they're punching down, which is a bad look to people who, again, are ignorant of how bad Gabbard is.

It'll be trickier than it seems, and I feel like the best way is to really just try to subtly muscle out her airtime during the debate. Hopefully the moderators are through with humoring the also-rans that much.
 

EvilChameleon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,793
Ohio
I donated to Sara Gideon's campaign two weeks ago. They were... hyper-aggressive in seeking follow-up donations. I got two emails a day plus texts asking for more money until I opted out of everything.

Honestly asking, is that level of fund-raising aggression really optimal / necessary, particularly this far out from the 2020 election? I hope they are watching their opt-out rates. I feel like they're going to burn out supporters' attention budget (and actual budget) well before the finish line is in sight at this rate.

I get daily fundraising emails from Sherrod Brown, and he's safe for another 6 years!!
 

b-dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
32,721
Only the Very Online know about this. Her opponents will have to clap against her in a way that won't come off as an explanation (no time to establish the context of her awfulness) and also won't look like they're punching down, which is a bad look to people who, again, are ignorant of how bad Gabbard is.

It'll be trickier than it seems, and I feel like the best way is to really just try to subtly muscle out her airtime during the debate. Hopefully the moderators are through with humoring the also-rans that much.
Nah, you just need to go, "Really? Coming from the lady in the homophobic cult?"
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
If Joe Biden thought he could have beaten Hillary Clinton, he would have run.
Hillary's association with Obama was a positive, but she had considerable cache with the Democratic base outside of that.
---

Anyway, the Times article has a cash on hand figure for Sanders. So we can work out rough spend and burn rate for the Q, for a few candidates.

Sanders also transferred another $2.6 million. Warren didn't say, but her Senate account is basically tapped out ($300K cash remaining), so I'm going to assume zero for this.

Harris has another $1.3M left she could have transferred, but I'll also assume zero for now. Her cash on hand was said to be "nearly $10M" but being generous we'll just say $10M.

Q2 + Q3 Raised + Q3 Transfers - Q3 Spent = Q3 Cash on hand

Sanders:
$27.3M + $25.3M + $2.6M - $21.5M = $33.7M
Burn rate = $21.5M / $25.3M = 85%

Warren:
$19.8M + $24.6M - $18.7M = $25.7M
Burn rate = $18.7M / $24.6M = 76%

Harris:
$13.3M + $11.6M - $14.9M = $10M
Burn rate = $14.9M / $11.6M = 128%
If Harris did transfer, let's say $1M from her Senate account her burn rate would be more like 137%.

Yang:
$0.85M + $10M - $4.55M = $6.3M
Burn rate = $4.55M / $10M = 45%

Williamson:
$0.55M + $3.1M - $3M = $0.65M
Burn rate = $3M / $3.1M = 97%
 

Gotchaye

Member
Oct 27, 2017
694
I think you can probably credit Sanders for Medicare For All being such a big thing right now. But, rhetoric aside, Biden was always going to be proposing to expand on Obamacare and add a public option. Like, that's not actually a leftward move from Obama -- that's what Obama wanted to do in the first place. And surely someone would be running to his left.

And then obviously Sanders doesn't get any credit for the party's moves leftward on anything other than economics.

I think how much credit you give him for things like student loan forgiveness, support for unions, and various schemes for taxing the rich depends on to what extent you see him as responsible for the rise of progressivism. I think a problem for the idea that Sanders '16 made this happen is that Occupy Wall Street was 2011. Obviously this stuff is very hard to disentangle but I feel like I'd give more weight to the global financial crisis and the internet, which respectively produced an overeducated/underemployed activist class and gave them the means to organize. And, like, we know that the large majority of Sanders' supporters in 2016 (and a significant share even now) weren't really with him because of his ideology so I don't know that I buy that he did much persuading or that the party has moved left to retain the support of his voters.

I think another factor in the rise of the left is the rise of the idea that "electability" isn't real or at least isn't important, and that you win by turning out your base. I think this started as a response to seeing Republicans do so well while moving so far to the right under Obama. But by the 2016 election this had taken hold in entirely Sanders-independent ways. Hillary was way more outspoken on racial injustice than any previous Democratic nominee (and I'd bet quite a bit that she'll still be the record-holder after 2020) and way more outspoken about the pathologies of the Republican base ("basket of deplorables"). She felt a lot of pressure to do this kind of thing because activists on the left felt unconstrained by concerns about electability, either because they believed that base turnout was more important or because they believed that Republicans had already been demographically doomed and Trump had no chance. In retrospect this was wrong, and probably she'd have done better had she not seemed so threatening to white conservatives, but many people took the opposite lesson from this and decided that Hillary was too moderate, and have doubled down on the idea that you win by turning out the base.

So far in this primary, we saw everyone initially racing to the left before recalibrating as they realized that they were actually to the left of the median Democrat on a few issues. I think now things have settled down and there's a more nuanced understanding of the political landscape. Now we're back to chasing the center, but we're chasing the center with ideas that are supposedly leftist, like large, universal expansions of the welfare state and raising taxes on the rich. This isn't so much the party giving way to its left wing as it is the party realizing that these are popular positions in the country as a whole, and overwhelmingly popular positions among Democrats. At the same time we've seen a move away from the progressive positions on racial justice and to some extent on immigration (though this is complicated because everyone wants to draw a contrast with Trump), because these aren't actually that popular. But it's not as simple as "left on economics, right on social issues" because at least some of the left wing positions on social issues are political winners, at least among Democrats, like gun control.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
I mean, I also attribute trying to stake out leftward positions during the primary (which always happens anyway) as partly due to the donor requirements to get into the debates. You don't really drive donor volume with more moderate positions.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,491
This is the least shocking news I have read all week.


Earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said his chamber would have "no choice" but to hold a trial on whether to remove President Donald Trump from office if the House votes to impeach.


But in a new campaign ad on Facebook, the Kentucky Republican claims that any impeachment attempt will fail as long as he remains in charge of the Senate.


"Nancy Pelosi's in the clutches of a left wing mob. They finally convinced her to impeach the president," McConnell says directly to the camera in a 17-second video. "All of you know your Constitution. The way that impeachment stops is a Senate majority with me as majority leader.


"But I need your help," he adds, standing in front of a picture of an elephant. "Please contribute before the deadline."


The McConnell campaign, according to Facebook's "Ad Library," started running the digital ad last week, a few days after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry over whether Trump improperly pressured Ukraine's president to investigate political rival and possible 2020 opponent Joe Biden.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,705
Dramatization of Trump saying Rick Perry made him do it





They have no strategy

literally


The party's scattered responses underscore the challenge for Republican leaders of setting a message for a set of developments that are out of their control, said Antonia Ferrier, the former communications director for Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader.

"It's very difficult to message on quicksand," she said.

Problems for House Republicans surfaced almost as soon as the formal inquiry began, with a halting performance last weekend by Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California and the minority leader, on CBS's "60 Minutes." Mr. McCarthy appeared not to have read the transcript of a call between Mr. Trump and the Ukrainian president that is at the heart of the impeachment inquiry; as he tried to defend the president, the correspondent Scott Pelley noted that he was reciting a set of talking points that the White House had circulated earlier.

Republican lawmakers and aides fretted privately that Mr. McCarthy looked unprepared and uncertain, and that their party had no strategy for confronting the crisis engulfing the president. Since then, leaders have buckled down to devise a fusillade of messages they hope will resonate with the public as the investigation unfolds.

An early version of their defense centered on three main arguments: that Democrats are truly trying to impeach the president, that nothing in Mr. Trump's call with the Ukrainian president is impeachable and that Democrats are exploiting the call to achieve an end result they had hoped for from the beginning of Mr. Trump's presidency, impeachment.

But in a sign of how Republicans' strategy has continued to shift, Mr. McCarthy in recent days has appeared to adopt a number of other approaches, most notably introducing a message that focuses narrowly on Democrats' impeachment process. That strategy hinges on the belief that voters will reject Speaker Nancy Pelosi's decision not to hold a vote to start an impeachment inquiry. Republicans argued in a legal brief on Thursday that the House had not in fact begun a real impeachment investigation because it had not authorized one with a full vote.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
So, finished reading the NYT Biden donor article.
A few observations.

Having entered the race with access to Obama 2008 and 2012 email lists... his donors are making excuses about Warren and Sanders starting their campaigns a few months before, to justify the terrible state of his online donations.

Also this stuck out to me as laughable:
"He's running a primary campaign and a general at the same time and I think he's doing a great job," said Sheila Nix, a former chief of staff to Dr. Jill Biden, who attended the forum. "It's a little unprecedented having to do both at the same time."
Every single GOP candidate in 2016 was running against Hillary Clinton; Russia was running against Hillary Clinton, lol.
The GOP had basically been running against Hillary Clinton for 30 years.

Also, when I first read this I thought they meant $5M total:
Mr. Biden spent $5 million in both May and June, the most recent months that federal records are available. His staff and campaign costs have only ballooned since then, suggesting he likely spent nearly all, if not more than, the $15.2 million he raised in the last three months.
But looking at his FEC filings, he only had cash on hand from his first quarter of fundraising of $10.9M.

He spent $11.1M over two months, so if he kept the same level of expenditure, it would be in the realm of $16.7M this quarter.

So if I were to stab in the dark back of the envelope:
Q2 + Q3 Raised - Q3 Spent = Q3 Cash on hand
$10.9M + $15.2M - $16.7M = $9.4M
Burn rate = 110%

If he spent more line with Warren, let's say $18M
$10.9M + $15.2M - $18M = $8.1M
Burn rate = 118%

Kind of wondering if it's plausible that... Joe Biden's campaign might run out of money????
Or he's going to need to scale back?
Or he's basically going to need to spend all his time at fundraisers?

Notably of the $22 million Biden raised in his first filing... $7.9M was from maxed out donors.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,705
Also, when I first read this I thought they meant $5M total:
But looking at his FEC filings, he only had cash on hand from his first quarter of fundraising of $10.9M.

He spent $11.1M over two months, so if he kept the same level of expenditure, it would be in the realm of $16.7M this quarter.

So if I were to stab in the dark back of the envelope:
Q2 + Q3 Raised - Q3 Spent = Q3 Cash on hand
$10.9M + $15.2M - $16.7M = $9.4M
Burn rate = 110%

If he spent more line with Warren, let's say $18M
$10.9M + $15.2M - $18M = $8.1M
Burn rate = 118%

Kind of wondering if it's plausible that... Joe Biden's campaign might run out of money????
Or he's going to need to scale back?
Or he's basically going to need to spend all his time at fundraisers?

Notably of the $22 million Biden raised in his first filing... $7.9M was from maxed out donors.

worse, some of the money he reported might be only money he could use in the general.
 

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
Biden's campaign strategy feels just as decrepit as he does. Info about his mess of a campaign is constantly coming out of a bunch of backroom bundlers that seem to be running it. And bad online presence/fundraising is the excuse? That's not only a poor excuse, it's a good reason on its own to not nominate him. Did he end up with none of Obama/Hillary's campaign apparatus?
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
Biden probably made a mistake relying on larger doners

He does have support, but being so IDGAF about campaign finance probably made you're average voter who might like him not feel like they need to donate to him

Where with Bernie his supporters know he literally does need their money even if it's like 10 dollars

Biden's not getting those sorts of small contributions
 

Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,936
Biden is running a campaign that is based on the supposition that he's going to win, he's going to be the nominee, so lets keep our head down as much as possible to take as little damage as possible.

But, as with Harris, this is a lesson that they should have learned from Hillary's campaign that employed this same strategy: keeping your head down, vanishing from the campaign, does not stop the blows from coming.

AS the frontrunner, Biden is being relentlessly attacked whether his campaign is leading the news or not. Only now, because he's hiding, he's not building any of the good will among voters/media necessary to counter the bad press. The body blows are coming, and they're sticking, because there's nothing else there.
 

Deleted member 3082

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,099
So what do Republicans do now aside from grow a spine?

There's a whole evolutionary process before invertebrates showed up, just play it in reverse. If they had the good sense to learn about it, they'd know the next steps are like.... gross fishsquirrel >ugly frog fish > mutant tadpole > eel-thingy > tentacle slime lobster > pond scum > bacteria. There's plenty of room to un-grow.
 

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
Every single GOP candidate in 2016 was running against Hillary Clinton; Russia was running against Hillary Clinton, lol.
The GOP had basically been running against Hillary Clinton for 30 years.

Stupid and overconfident would be better ways to describe it than unprecedented. Obama had to run against Hillary and McCain at the same time. Hillary had to run against Trump and Sanders at the same time. Difference is they waited until they actual had some votes before trying to pivot
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
Cool, but don't blame me if I'm not going to take your word for it that he doesn't have a chance and keep donating to and supporting him in the mean time. I'll pop over to your side when it's actually clear that it's going to be Warren.
You should take the polling data's word for it and put that money somewhere where it'll do more good.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
worse, some of the money he reported might be only money he could use in the general.
If I'm reading the numbers right, it looks like around $350K of the amount in his filing was above the maximum $2800 donation and would need to go to a GE fund. I assume that some similar number of his $15.2 million this quarter will also be GE specific.

Sanders and Warren probably also have some max contributions in their mix, but I doubt it's anywhere near the level of Biden's.
 

pirata

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,410
I don't think Trump is actually referring to the election, even though he uses that word.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,491
Little does Trump know, that removing him from office doesn't nullify the 2016 election.

Not until President Warren can clean house of all of his toadies and restore a lot of the good Obama era regulations will the erasure of 2016 be complete.

including getting rid of his shitty rich people tax cuts.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,815
I don't think Tulsi had any impact on Harris' poll standings. Harris had a good debate against Biden, since then she's been meh.

Yeah Tulsi only had a real impact on Harris in the Twitter-verse.

Kamala's mistake was poorly capitalizing off her first debate performance. They tried to essentially go underground and coast off that debate, but as soon as it appeared she might be a frontrunner the Bernie/Warren crowd went full force to smack her down. There was no honeymoon period that I think Harris's people thought there would be and were caught flat footed when all the attacks came at her. Also by not pressing the flesh extensively after the first debate she missed out on building positive media coverage to build off that debate. The only news were the negative attacks.

Also Chuck Todd mentioned it on his show a few weeks ago, Warren has an extremely strong inside game that most of the public don't know about. He mentioned that Warren regularly calls people who appear on cable talk shows to explain things or build support. There's a reason a lot of pundits say good things about Warren because she likely has talked to them directly. It creates a positive feedback loop, viewers see this and they start thinking positive about Warren, and the media reports on that positive feedback and so on. Warren did this in particularly right around the debates. Harris failed to do this, so she had very few people in the media advocating her instead they always seem to report on the latest random poll that showed her poll numbers slipping. Both Warren and Buttigieg have been masters of the media war so far.
 

Falore

Banned
Feb 15, 2019
745
After rewatching the tricky dick mini series on cnn and now the cnn miniseries on the 1970s unites states vs. Nixon really does reenergize my Hope's that trump is done for. They even showed Republicans initially being staunch defenders of nixon and many delusional actions nixon took to escape justice.
 

fierygunrob

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 16, 2018
299
You should take the polling data's word for it and put that money somewhere where it'll do more good.
He's still leading, so I guess I'll donate to Biden?

It's only October, the field is still way overcrowded, and the last poll I saw showed 70% or so of first choice Warren supporters say they could change their mind.
 

adamsappel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,503
Not until President Warren can clean house of all of his toadies and restore a lot of the good Obama era regulations will the erasure of 2016 be complete.
I can't wait for the scare stories that FOX will run about the departmental purges of people hired during Trump, and those will be easily countered with stories of their corruption and incompetence.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,616
If Warren is president and she has a trifecta then FOX news is going to be white noise. Republicans are going to be mad the entire time she is president just like they were under Obama.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.