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Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,908
The fact that he's literally not getting ANY Hillary support from 2016 is just so...idk the right word. It's not surprising, but it's shocking. You'd think there would be some. And that retention from 2016 among those who did vote for him.....and, again, more people are considering AMY than him. Amy. The lady who would probably be able to pile drive me into a table. (And I might be into it, don't judge).

Makes me proud, tbh.

The SOLIDARITY is real.

Cx9QZKp.gif
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
Yes! I will make this happen, like fetch
I've still never seen Mean Girls.

Expected given his complete lack of changing a thing and doubling down on all the things people didn't like about him? :-P

Definition of insanity, etc. etc.
Like, it's that gif of Shocked not that shocked? Basically that.

I would kill for a heat map of where each candidate's supporters are. Because when you're in that 11-14% range I think it's super interesting. If your support is super collected around, say, colleges you might net fewer delegate equivalents at 13% than someone at 11%. (I know the polling can't do that really but I would love to know.)
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,927
Glancing at 2016, we might another one of these polls in about six weeks, and then starting at end of December every two weeks until caucus day.
 

Crocodile

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,071
Why in the world would you want those trash people? Like, real talk, if a person supports Tulsi or Yang I side eye the hell out of them.

Yang has been pretty consistently out-polling sitting Governors and Senators. I don't want the dude anywhere near the White House but he's clearly doing something right?
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
Under 35
Warren 27%
Sanders 22%
Biden 9%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 7%

Age 35-54
Warren 23%
Biden 20%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 11%
Harris 6%

Age 55+
Biden 29%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 4%
Steyer 4%

A reminder that in 2016, 28% of Democrats were over 65, and 64% were 45+

Among Men
Biden 24%
Warren 16%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Harris 4%

Among Women
Warren 27%
Biden 18%
Buttigieg 9%
Sanders 9%

And 57% were women.
 

Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,908
Ok I have to dunk on this.

For context: Brie attended Harvard Law.


I'm going to try to be as diplomatic as I can...

...The Fuck?

So sorry someone put a gun to your head, made you attend Harvard Law, then assumed you'd want to work as a lawyer to pay back the loans you took out.

Again, the worst people.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
Men are the worst.
They should be seen and not heard.

Also, can we all agree then that Harris is done?
Fifth in Iowa polling.
Fifth in NH polling.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,807
At this point Nancy Pelosi is nothing more then an Accomplice to Trump. Every time she opens her mouth she undermines Congress and those that are seeking to hold the President Accountable. She would rather have a fundraiser boogie man then even come close to doing the right thing. She deliberately conflates starting the Impeachment process with the end vote. All she continues to do is give trump attorneys and the DOJ ammunition to use in the various court cases to oppose information subpoenas etc.

source.gif


Thank you.

That's what infuriates me. I understand she's the Speaker and it's her job to put political calculations for the entire House into the equation. But she's been going well beyond that. She's been actively undermining the impeachment process and messaging from the beginning. I'm not going to say she's outright trying to kill it, but she wants to keep impeachment in a tiny little box and put it on a shelf so she can say, "See, we did try to hold Trump accountable!".

But anytime impeachment tries to grow beyond the tiny little box, she does everything in her power to create mixed signals and intentionally conflate a multi-step process into an impeachment boogieman, so she can shove it back into a little box. Some of us would even be happy if Pelosi just sat quietly on the sidelines and let impeachment grow or shrink on its own. But she actively tries to squash any momentum when there's a flashpoint. As Antoz said, she's even providing the Trump legal team ammunition to fight the Congressional subpoenas in court. I know she's not but it really does feel she's taking the side of Republicans when it comes to holding Trump accountable.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
Looking at the crosstabs a bit, only 41% of caucus goers think M4A as a sole government program should be the thing we run on, only 36% think free college should be a thing we run on, only 20% think we should run on socialism (with 37% saying it's both bad policy and makes them not comfortable) and only 28% want to run to the left.

This might be why Bernie is having some issues. Warren supports a lot of the same things, but talks about them in an entirely different way.

More people in Iowa supprot running on the green new deal than they do on single payer government only M4A. This is what a lot of us have been saying. It's a REAL heavy lift.
 

Plinko

Member
Oct 28, 2017
18,541
Looking at the crosstabs a bit, only 41% of caucus goers think M4A as a sole government program should be the thing we run on, only 36% think free college should be a thing we run on, only 20% think we should run on socialism (with 37% saying it's both bad policy and makes them not comfortable) and only 28% want to run to the left.

This might be why Bernie is having some issues. Warren supports a lot of the same things, but talks about them in an entirely different way.

And this is the key for me: Is she going to be able to keep this going through a general election without people getting wise to it? Or is she going to move a bit closer to the center?
 

Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,908
This might be why Bernie is having some issues. Warren supports a lot of the same things, but talks about them in an entirely different way.

So far, Warren's gotten away with not talking about it at all really. She speaks on M4A in aspirational terms on what it will be. But she's yet to answer the tax question or put out a (real) plan of her own to be scrutinized. Now that Buttigieg has done so, she's officially the only top tier candidate who hasn't.

Warren is still benefiting from being handled with kids gloves.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
And this is the key for me: Is she going to be able to keep this going through a general election without people getting wise to it? Or is she going to move a bit closer to the center?
She'll keep talking about the same things the way she has, I expect. But, she's smart enough to realize when an issue is a loser you don't keep hammering on it. It's good political sense, and I appreciate it from her. Like taxing the wealthy and the assault weapons ban are popular across the board. Doing something about healthcare is popular across the board. But she's shown she's not so ideologically fixated on a specific policy proposal at the expense of actually achieving something. To me, that makes a good candidate and a good nominee.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
I'm going to contemplate that a big part of Birdie's favourables dropping... is things like that embarrassing as fuck "Media bias" thread, lol.

Rigged MSNBC!!!!!!!!! omitted him from a graphic (of people that were at the GLAAD Iowa forum). lollllll

(They're bigger fuckup seems to be... they don't know that Joe Sestak is not Michael Bennet, but I mean... fair enough)
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,359
lol at the favorability of the lower tier people

Bennet: 20/23
Bullock: 18/23
Castro: 35/36
de Blasio: 12/54
Delaney: 17/34
Gabbard: 26/31
Ryan: 13/28
Sestak: 7/21
Steyer: 27/32
Williamson: 9/48
 

aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,457
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
Warren is still benefiting from being handled with kids gloves.
I don't disagree, but I'm starting to think that oppo on her is running fairly dry since we've seen basically nothing out of anyone other than "she used to be a republican." But hey, I could be wrong and she's the most horrendously corrupt politician this side of Trump. Not that that's likely, but I mean technically possible. Even Trump hasn't had anything for her on Twitter.

This is quite the spin LOL

I'd rather people find a way to keep her in the race way-the-crap more than about a dozen who still are.
 

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,831
I don't disagree, but I'm starting to think that oppo on her is running fairly dry since we've seen basically nothing out of anyone other than "she used to be a republican." But hey, I could be wrong and she's the most horrendously corrupt politician this side of Trump. Not that that's likely, but I mean technically possible. Even Trump hasn't had anything for her on Twitter.

Yeah...I don't really see any personal landmines up ahead for Warren. The main landmine, her Native American heritage, already exploded well before it could have affected her momentum. In hindsight, that the was possible move for Warren to have made. All the stuff about Warren dropping a nuke on herself and how she was bad for so easily rising to Trump's bait is kinda hilarious now.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
So far, Warren's gotten away with not talking about it at all really. She speaks on M4A in aspirational terms on what it will be. But she's yet to answer the tax question or put out a (real) plan of her own to be scrutinized. Now that Buttigieg has done so, she's officially the only top tier candidate who hasn't.

Warren is still benefiting from being handled with kids gloves.
I just don;t know how much there there is to hit her with tbh. The "she was a Republican!" thing is dumb and literally no one cares. The DNA thing is long gone, and not really something you can weaponize in a primary. The way she talks about policy is totally different from the way Bernie does. (It's the preaching vs teaching thing.) She gets off the hook with some of her tax answers cause she's nimble enough to walk herself out of the bear trap. She's new enough on the national stage that her political record is basically all formed from 2012 onward, where most dem supporters had already moved pretty far to the left. Biden has a treasure trove of horrible things. Harris has things you can squint and spin negatively. Tulsi is a train wreck. Pete can't talk about minority issues to save his life. On paper, Warren is just a really good candidate. IDk what it would take to really damage her favorables yet.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
So far, Warren's gotten away with not talking about it at all really. She speaks on M4A in aspirational terms on what it will be. But she's yet to answer the tax question or put out a (real) plan of her own to be scrutinized. Now that Buttigieg has done so, she's officially the only top tier candidate who hasn't.

Warren is still benefiting from being handled with kids gloves.
Warren is regularly asked about whether she'll need to raise taxes. And deftly deflects to costs so that no one gets that soundbite.

Campaigns have tried to lay the seeds for negative stories... and none of them have taken root.
Forma REPUBLICAN.
Consulted with CORPORATE AMERICA on bankruptcy.
Used to take BIG DONOR MONEY.
Has said she will take BIG DONOR MONEY for the GE.
Cosying up to ESTABLISHMENT.

DNADNADNA
Susan Sarandon.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,507


....!!!!

Or is this just the first stage of grief from Republicans?
 

Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,908
I just don;t know how much there there is to hit her with tbh. The "she was a Republican!" thing is dumb and literally no one cares. The DNA thing is long gone, and not really something you can weaponize in a primary. The way she talks about policy is totally different from the way Bernie does. (It's the preaching vs teaching thing.) She gets off the hook with some of her tax answers cause she's nimble enough to walk herself out of the bear trap. She's new enough on the national stage that her political record is basically all formed from 2012 onward, where most dem supporters had already moved pretty far to the left. Biden has a treasure trove of horrible things. Harris has things you can squint and spin negatively. Tulsi is a train wreck. Pete can't talk about minority issues to save his life. On paper, Warren is just a really good candidate. IDk what it would take to really damage her favorables yet.
Warren is regularly asked about whether she'll need to raise taxes. And deftly deflects to costs so that no one gets that soundbite.

Campaigns have tried to lay the seeds for negative stories... and none of them have taken root.
Forma REPUBLICAN.
Consulted with CORPORATE AMERICA on bankruptcy.
Used to take BIG DONOR MONEY.
Has said she will take BIG DONOR MONEY for the GE.
Cosying up to ESTABLISHMENT.

DNADNADNA
Susan Sarandon.

You don't need to attack Warren by bringing up some past misdeed. You isolate her trickery on the Healthcare question and call it out.

Biden got the closest to doing this. And him hammering Warren on not admitting that her plan would raise taxes (coupled with her dodging the question) was one of the strongest moments he had in the last debate, and simultaneously one of her weakest. Become it's become painfully clear that she's dodging on this issue. It's not so much her savvy in dodging the question as it is nobody really wanting to take the hit and attack her on this. If I'm on a campaign, and I'm not concerned about taking a hit for attacking a favored candidate, I'd advise my candidate to call that out and go in for the kill. It might not work, but pointing out the ways in which your competitor is "playing politics" is traditionally a good way to pull a candidate out of the "darling" bubble so that you can actually engage them.

But hey, now I AM writing fanfiction. I just really want to see her get roughed up one good time before the general to see how she adapts.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
You don't need to attack Warren by bringing up some past misdeed. You isolate her trickery on the Healthcare question and call it out.

Biden got the closest to doing this. And him hammering Warren on not admitting that her plan would raise taxes (coupled with her dodging the question) was one of the strongest moments he had in the last debate, and simultaneously one of her weakest. Become it's become painfully clear that she's dodging on this issue. It's not so much her savvy in dodging the question as it is nobody really wanting to take the hit and attack her on this. If I'm on a campaign, and I'm not concerned about taking a hit for attacking a favored candidate, I'd advise my candidate to call that out and go in for the kill. It might not work, but pointing out the ways in which your competitor is "playing politics" is traditionally a good way to pull a candidate out of the "darling" bubble so that you can actually engage them.

But hey, now I AM writing fanfiction. I just really want to see her get roughed up one good time before the general to see how she adapts.
I actually want her to get hit too, because I want to see how she handles it. So I'm with you there. I just think she's a good enough politician to wiggle her way out of it without sounding like a politician. The way she talks about M4A is more an end goal, and she's given herself enough space to really put forth a lot of different plans and saying that's what she's always been for. So I don't disagree with you, but I just think (from what I've seen so far) she can navigate it well enough.
 
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