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US PoliEra 2019 |OT7| It's happening
- Thread starter Ogodei
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Yeah. Warrens trade and nuclear policies are minuses. Still on board though.
Right?
Either the GOP wins this in a clincher when they should've had this on lock or Democrats flip the seat from them. Either option sucks for the GOP.
A win's a win, if they can keep clinching wins they get to continue to obstruct.
And it isn't like McCready's losing to some centrist Republican, he's losing to a psychopath.
This race has no bearing on what happens in the House.
So yes, a ~~~win~~~ means virtually nothing.
Obstruct what? This is a House seat that's been vacant for months now and changes nothing on House dynamic.
the practical effect of Bishop in office versus McCready is... nothing. And it's not even like, well shit, the GOP has to spend to take this district back in 2020. It probably won't even exist.
How can they obstruct when they're at a 40+ seat deficiency and in the minority?
Ugh.
Jon Ossoff is a weak candidate and I really can't imagine him winning in Georgia.
On a related note, I Googled Jon Ossoff to make sure I was spelling his name correctly and...man, the people who write/edit Wikipedia articles might be up there with 50+ year-old black women for most deceptively potent shade:
Jon Ossoff is a weak candidate and I really can't imagine him winning in Georgia.
On a related note, I Googled Jon Ossoff to make sure I was spelling his name correctly and...man, the people who write/edit Wikipedia articles might be up there with 50+ year-old black women for most deceptively potent shade:
I don't think Warren trade policies are going to last. She smarter than Trump and she'll be more vulnerable to criticism because of the media and Democrats being more prone to criticize their own. If reality hits, I think she will at least adjust her plans.
This seat actually literally means nothing in terms of power. Also it probably won't even exist in it's current form next year.
Medicare 4 Al.
Shifty Forma Republican big money.
Shifty Forma McKinsey child.
What happened to Levi?? Oh virtuous Levi.
Shifty Forma Republican big money.
Shifty Forma McKinsey child.
What happened to Levi?? Oh virtuous Levi.
lol
Obstruct what? Be the xth vote in the minority in a district that probably won't exist in a few years? Wow, much obstruction there lmao
Not to mention that basically all Republicans are Trump ass kissing psychopaths at this point. That plays well in a lot of the country and this district and the GOP candidate aren't special.
Didn't we say that before about him? Didn't we say that about the man who, performatively, is the better version of him (Beto)?
I mean, if he wins I'll be his #1 stan. But...I'm looking, and I'm not seeing an upgraded politician from when he ran for that House seat.
Have to disagree with Jacobin here, I don't think it's right at all to attack Jane Sanders
Do you see a better candidate for Senate for that race other than McBath who would run for the other seat?
Yeah, campaigns should be largely running on identifying problems people have, rather than picking targets. But Warren's been the best so far identifying when the target potentially IS the problem. It seems risky to do but it helps that there's an actual related issue to discuss.
Online storefronts search-promoting their own or preferred products, or worse adapting others' products and selling their own versions of products remains an issue. As does discoverability in general. It's important because people do see these storefronts as a means to make a living and a vehicle for upward mobility.
If you wade into politics via news media/interviews/stumping/etc....
More to the point, if you use the platform earned by your spouse who is a politician to attack other candidates then, yes...Hell yes, you're open to attack/criticism.
Just as a thought experiment, if our statewide candidates in 2020 perform as well as McCready did tonight in NC-09, would they be on track to win statewide?
Man, whatever. It seems like this is right past the line of "oh shit Dems can take this seat" as we saw leading up to the midterms, right? So basically the landscape hasn't changed if this is an indication. It should never be this close. Just like Missouri in 2008 should have never been close. Or something.
I cannot believe Obama lost MO by only 4k votes in 2008
I cannot believe Obama lost MO by only 4k votes in 2008
Pretty sure Missouri was still considered a bellwether state in 2008, before becoming super republican the times after.
Also, with the margin being about R+2, that tracks pretty well with last year's environment being about D+8.6 or so. So again, nothing to worry about.
Correct me if I'm wrong Autodidact ?
Correct me if I'm wrong Autodidact ?
It's consistent with at least a D+6 (you know, right around the current GCB) environment, but of course it's only one data point of many.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To be clear: a ~2% Bishop (R) victory in #NC09, a district that voted for Trump by 12%, is still bad news for the House GOP overall.
It won't do anything to convince House Rs undecided about seeking reelection in 2020 that they're in position to win back the majority.
10:05 PM - Sep 10, 2019
To be clear: a ~2% Bishop (R) victory in #NC09, a district that voted for Trump by 12%, is still bad news for the House GOP overall.
It won't do anything to convince House Rs undecided about seeking reelection in 2020 that they're in position to win back the majority.
10:05 PM - Sep 10, 2019
Yup. They spent all this money on a district that was favorable to them and barely won.
I seriously read this and thought I was in the UK politics thread LOL
If Trump won this district by 12 points and Bishop won by 2, I'd think that'd point to D+12... subtract ten points from the margin, and account for the fact that Trump already lost the national popular vote by 2 points.
Whatever, all that matters is it's a stinky result for the GOP in any context beyond "well at least they didn't lose?" Hard to feel too sore about a loss here when we already have a 36-seat advantage in the House.
Oh, I absolutely agree with this. But here's my problem: the extent to which I am associated with politics is in terms of language, presentation, and perception.
Warren's "I have a plan for that" strategy is clearly a win for her. But that doesn't mean she doesn't need to be careful. Warren has introduced some great ideas into the discourse. I will forever stan her for being one of the first candidates to openly call for impeachment and taxing the rich. But some of these plans she churns out to stay Twitter-relevant are actually kind of sloppy and bad. And if she churns out a rushed plan that's bad enough, against a well functioning machine, she runs the risk of being defined by that bad plan.
I really do think her campaign needs to think about that more than they currently are, which is why I'm really wanting a campaign to go for her throat to see how she responds.
See, I went by the PVI of the district.
But yes, bad result for them and encouraging for next year.
I'm a little confused.
The GCB at the time was tighter than November 2018. He ran about the same as Hillary did in that district when accounting for the two party vote. The GCB got more Dem friendly, and McBath was able to take out Handel by a point. Given the fundamentals, I think both performed as well as you'd expect, and I think the "he's a bad candidate" stuff is weird and not really backed up by what actually occurred.
He was completely fine.
No idea.
But dammit we need states like NC/AZ/GA to move our way like that...
Because it's very high evangelical Christian population as well as non-col whites?
Meh for the most part no one is looking at Forma's plans in any real detail.
She could put out a plan to end cat memes.
It's just on brand for her to be releasing white papers.
She could put out a plan to end cat memes.
It's just on brand for her to be releasing white papers.
It's on brand for Sanders to have terrible surrogates and staff, but we call them out from time to time as well. When Warren puts out bad plans, the same should happen.
Where I'm coming from is this:
Until further notice, the ability for a Democrat to win a Georgia Senate seat is going be this: what is your capacity to run a statewide race similar to the race Abrams ran? Georgia hasn't seen a D Senator since 2005, and politics in that state have only gotten more polarized and difficult in that state since then. Abrams ran by being unapologetic, magnetic, and capable of running a campaign that appealed equally to white Georgians, black Georgians, and white/black unlikely voters. I just don't see, in how Ossoff presents himself, the ability to activate that Georgian coalition. I haven't seen that shift in him.
Probably if they lost a race with a lot of rural communities, it would mean they are doubly fucked.
Well, she doesn't have that plan out. That may need to copy/paste from Beto too.
It's not like "In theory for Single Payer, in practical reality ______" wasn't Obama/Hillary's position in '08!
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