Yeah, I'd agree that the Democrats have a better chance at doing it for this reason alone.
537 votes in Florida in 2000, and less than a .5% shift in three states in 2016 would have done it.
Worth noting as well that if Kerry had done just a little over two points better in Ohio in 2004, he would have won that election too.
If NPVIC passes and holds up, I don't see why 2020-2024-2028 couldn't give Democrats three in a row, barring the usual caveats (economy crashing or personal scandal). Ideally we'll see a decade or so of Democratic domination (including in midterms, please Christ) that forces the GOP to finally get their act together and decide that moderating to win swing voters is a worthier endeavor than holding the base. Climate change, LGBTQ issues and immigration are three specific areas they're going to need to moderate on if they don't want to get murdered electorally once Gen Z and millennials are voting in greater quantities (and offsetting dead boomers), but the pendulum is bound to swing back sometime.
If the Democratic nominee wins the popular vote next year (which seems all but guaranteed), the Democrats will have won the popular vote in 7 of the past 8 presidential elections and only come away with the office 5, and possibly 4 times. That's both impressive and infuriating.