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US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away
- Thread starter Aaron
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Their job in no way would stop a lower court in a state suit, the 5th Circuit, or the SCOTUS, in this. Your anger is misguided and misinformed.
They could impeach Trump tomorrow or two years ago and it'd be the same.
If you think removing a Republican House hasn't helped by preventing even more heinous shit to go from McConnell to whatever grinning goon would have been Speaker from the GOP, then...
Jana Sanchez, 2018 TX-06 Dem nominee who lost by 8 points, will not be running again, instead will be treasurer to another Dem candidate
Pressley knows their game.
Good. Spread the word, weaken their power.
Nothing is surprising anymore
trump meeting with rando twitter users in the Oval Office. amazing.
Free market principles plus they really want WinRed to take off now rather than later even though serious flaws as noted earlier
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The first time I heard about Tim Pool was years ago when he grifted a Sweden vacation to "investigate" "no go zones." I initially thought it was crappy satire. There's a clip of him saying women weren't allowed to be outside. He says this in front of a camera while some women are walking by in the background.
The second time I heard about Tim Pool was after the Wohl / Open-fly "press conference" about Mueller. Pool said he had seen the police report (doesn't exist) and begged for donations.
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I'm really hoping Democrats go more for a 50 state strategy. Heavily focusing on the Senate seats as well as presidential candidates campaigning a lot within them. I think the realistic target states that could swing in their favor would be Maine, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina for both Senate and the Presidential race. Kansas and Alabama should be given priority due to weak people running on the R side that have already lost to Democrats in statewide elections. Texas and Georgia are almost certainly not happening but they were incredibly close in 2018 to both of them flipping. Kentucky and West Virginia just to put the effort in. Kentucky because of Mitch McConnell and the Democratic party seems to already geared up to tar and feather him in nationwide attack ads. West Virginia for a few reasons. First of all the Netflix documentary "bringing down the house" really elevated Paula Jean Swearengin's notoriety. She was able to get 30% of the WV voting population in her primary race against Manchin with only $170,000 versus Manchin's 2 million dollar campaign. Since WV has been voting for a democratic senator for a long time. It does show there is a way for a Democrat to win in a statewide election. Chances are around 1% of actually flipping either one of the latter two states. However, I think it would still be a worthwhile investment.
Honestly, say what you will about the 30% that will vote Trump no matter what, but this sort of dysfunction on top of the falling apart of the NRA, and the withdraw of the Koch Network, and you're in for a 2020 where the GOP cannot mobilize a voter base anywhere but extremely safe districts and maps. Even the "30%" will be only "25%" if your entire operation is in shambles.
Yes, be Joe Manchin.
Who himself only squeaked a 3.5% plurality last year after winning by a landslide in 2012.
It's gone, Blanche. And if a Democrat does win statewide, it won't be one like Paula's Jeans Swore Again.
Won't matter much though when the Russians are manipulating poll data to hand Trump another win.
I don't meant to be blunt, but if this is really your attitude, why discuss any of this? If you think that Russia will hand Trump a victory, does anything - the primaries, what House Democrats do or don't do, what any investigations turn up, how fiery our rhetoric is - really matter? Such a stance implies his victory is already a foregone conclusion and would seem to render everything else pointless. I would hope you don't believe that, especially since we still have no evidence they changed vote totals, we'll be more aware of their social media operations, and all the pivotal states likely to decide the election have a Democratic governor and/or secretary of state (really, every single one: MI, PA, WI, AZ, NC).
Unless you mean "manipulating poll data" as in "giving Trump stolen, granular data that enabled his campaign to know exactly whom to target in key states" like they did in 2016, in which case I'd point out they won't have Cambridge Analytica for their social media operations and that internal leaks have shown the Trump campaign in disarray re:polling and Trump's status in swing states.
Spreading rumours like this will only dampen turnout if people are convinced Russia is somehow tuning the numbers.
If you're so concerned, just think about how all the blue wall states + AZ now have dem governors, SOS's and AG' who will certainly escalate issues.
I made the mistake of looking at the comment section of a Democratic Senator's tweet riling against the GOP's lawsuit to end the ACA.
(That would be Blumenthal.)
That was a mistake. So many bots, and MAGA idiots cheering for Americans to suffer needlessly.
(That would be Blumenthal.)
That was a mistake. So many bots, and MAGA idiots cheering for Americans to suffer needlessly.
I have the same amount of confidence that Trump will lose next year as I did that the Republicans would lose the House in 2018. And all the doom and gloom about the Republican finance network, plus their demographic issues don't inspire a lot of confidence that they'll bounce back so soon or so easy. While we won't have a one party system, I think the GOP is going through it's final phases before it goes away. This isn't uncommon; many parties come and go.
And before you scoff, I get the feeling that Justin Amash could be the precursor of what the next opposition party to the Democrats will be. As the Republican brand gets more toxic, I can see more and more right wingers and Conservatives jumping ship to the Libertarian Party. They can do very well for themselves if they offer the standard rightward politics without the racism. And considering the size and... diversity of the Democratic Party, I wouldn't be too shocked if it too broke up in a decade or two.
Realignment is a bitch.
And before you scoff, I get the feeling that Justin Amash could be the precursor of what the next opposition party to the Democrats will be. As the Republican brand gets more toxic, I can see more and more right wingers and Conservatives jumping ship to the Libertarian Party. They can do very well for themselves if they offer the standard rightward politics without the racism. And considering the size and... diversity of the Democratic Party, I wouldn't be too shocked if it too broke up in a decade or two.
Realignment is a bitch.
That's basically every Connecticut politician right now. Not just him
They are all getting ratio'd basically every time they say anything.
It's not entirely undeserved either
Barchartocrat
Edit: And to think they said piechartisanship was dead!
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who color-coded this graphic lol, they did such a bad jobPolitico on their bullshit as usual
MSNBC is clearly just using the correct international colouring for left and right-wing parties
Politico on their bullshit as usual
MSNBC too. 48 > 49 somehow
Given the graph is focused on the matchups, it is possible it is ordered by (fractional) margin over Trump from top to bottom, and with rounding it is possible that Warren's (underlying fractional) margin is larger than Sanders'.
While a plausible "excuse" and potentially not deliberate, that of course doesn't make it a good chart.
It doesnt look to be ordered by anything. I even checked if it was alphabetical or something. It's possible they rounded all the percentages down, maybe? But it goes ten point win, two point win, tie, one point Bernie win, tie. Maybe that's the order they were on the survey?
They might have rounded the percentages to the closest whole number, but ordered by the underlying, non rounded fractional margin. For example, Warren could have had 48.4 vs 48.0 for a 0.4 margin, while Sanders could have had 48.6 vs 48.4 for a 0.2 margin.
I've seen graphs and Excel sheets presented like that before.
The Guardian @guardian
BREAKING: Kim Darroch resigns as UK ambassador to Washington https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jul/10/tory-leadership-latest-news-john-major-threatens-to-take-boris-johnson-to-court-to-stop-him-proroguing-parliament-for-no-deal-brexit-live-news?CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1562756334 …
6:58 AM - Jul 10, 2019
BREAKING: Kim Darroch resigns as UK ambassador to Washington https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jul/10/tory-leadership-latest-news-john-major-threatens-to-take-boris-johnson-to-court-to-stop-him-proroguing-parliament-for-no-deal-brexit-live-news?CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1562756334 …
6:58 AM - Jul 10, 2019
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This is crazy.
Wish NYT broke it though :/ some people will dismiss it cuz BuzzFeed
ABC News @ABC
JUST IN: 60% of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, the most in @ABC News/WaPo polls since 1995.
More also say their state should make it easier, rather than harder, for women to have access to abortion. https://abcn.ws/2NKRVl2
MORE: 41% say laws on abortion access in their state should be left as they are now, and 32% say access to abortion should be easier than it is. 24% say abortion access in their state should be harder. https://abcn.ws/2Jsh8wv
7:07 AM - Jul 10, 2019
JUST IN: 60% of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, the most in @ABC News/WaPo polls since 1995.
More also say their state should make it easier, rather than harder, for women to have access to abortion. https://abcn.ws/2NKRVl2
MORE: 41% say laws on abortion access in their state should be left as they are now, and 32% say access to abortion should be easier than it is. 24% say abortion access in their state should be harder. https://abcn.ws/2Jsh8wv
7:07 AM - Jul 10, 2019
ABC News: Support for legal abortion matches its 24-year high: Poll
Sixty percent of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, the most in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1995. More also say their state should make it easier, rather than harder, for women to have access to abortion, with a plurality favoring no change in the status quo.
Most of the change in support for legal abortion is among Americans who say it should be legal "in all cases," now 27%, matching the high 24 years ago and up 11 percentage points from its low in early 2007. An additional 33% say it should be legal in most cases in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
The rest, 36%, say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, down from 45% as recently as 2010 and a high of 48% in 2001. This includes 14% who say abortion should be illegal in all cases, about half as many as say it always should be legal.
While support for legal abortion now matches its high in fall 1995, trends since then have not been consistent. The long-term average, in 32 ABC/Post polls over this period, is 55%, compared with today's 60%.
In terms of state-level action, 41% say laws on women's access to abortion should be left as they are now. Thirty-two percent say access to abortion should be easier than it is now, for a total of 73% favoring either no change or fewer restrictions. Twenty-four percent say abortion access should be harder. (In an ABC/Post poll last summer, 30% said they would like to see the Supreme Court make it harder to get an abortion, down from 42% in 2005.)
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Views on abortion access at the state level are similar among men and women. Essentially equal numbers also say abortion should be all or mostly legal overall, 62% of women and 59% of men. In one difference, women are 8 points more likely to say abortion should be legal in all cases, 31% vs. 23%.
Through a political lens, substantial majorities of Democrats (77%) and independents (64%) support legal abortion, compared with 41% of Republicans. It's 81% among liberals and 70% among moderates, vs. 38% among conservatives. Support for legal abortion in all cases ranges from 56% of liberal women to 11% of conservative men.
Other differences between the sexes emerge within partisan groups. Republican men are much more likely than Republican women to favor legal abortion, 51% vs. 32%. The opposite is true among independents, with support higher among independent women than men, 71% vs. 58%. Among Democrats, men and women hold similar views on abortion being legal in all or most cases, but with women 14 points more likely to say it should be legal in all cases.
Religious beliefs also influence these attitudes. Among people with no religious preference – a quarter of all adults and the fastest-growing group in religious terms – 85% support legal abortion. So do 71% of non-evangelical Protestants, compared with 52% of Catholics and 37% of evangelical Protestants. Even among evangelical Protestants, relatively few say abortion should be illegal in all cases, 27%.
Among other groups, support for legal abortion peaks by age at 72% among 18- to 29-year-olds, and it's 69% among all those younger than 40 compared with 55% among those 40 and older.
There are no significant differences overall by race and ethnicity. But in another political group of interest, college-educated white women are more apt to support legal abortion (72%) than college-educated white men and whites of either gender who lack a college degree (all with support in the mid- to high 50s). That said, college-educated white women are no more apt than other adults to favor making women's access to abortion easier than it is now.
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Thinking that states should make it easier for women to have access to abortion peaks among those with no religion (58%), liberals (57%), Democrats (50%) and 18- to 29-year-olds (46%). Thinking the opposite – that states should make abortion access harder – is highest, in turn, among strong conservatives (58%), evangelical Protestants (44%) and Republicans, (40%).
States with more restrictive abortion laws have more Republican populations than other states; that's part of the reason that people in these states are 13 points more likely than those in less-restrictive states to say it should be harder for women to have access to abortion. Still, relatively few take this position, 29% in more-restrictive states vs. 16% in those with less restrictions. (More- and less-restrictive states were categorized using both the Guttmacher Institute's State Abortion Policy Landscape and the Americans United for Life 2019 Life List.)
As reported in a previous analysis on Sunday, 61% of all adults call abortion a highly important issue in their vote for president in 2020, ranking it second to last on a list of nine items. There's a big 27-point gender gap in this result, with abortion highly important to 73% of women compared with 46% of men. Indeed, 21% of women call it one of the single most important issues in their vote; just 6% of men say the same.
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What were these? They're both gone.
copy 👏 over 👏 tweets 👏 when 👏 you 👏 post 👏 them
Kasie Hunt @kasie
FIRST ON NBC: @AmyMcGrathKY raises $2.5 million in first 24 hours of her campaign against @senatemajldr https://www.nbcnews.com/card/mcgrath-raises-record-2-5-million-first-day-senate-campaign-n1028121 …
Team McConnell isn't talking $$ yet. But advisors say they anticipate every "left wing lunatic" in NY and CA to donate to her campaign — casting her numbers as not reflective of what's happening in KY
7:36 AM - Jul 10, 2019
FIRST ON NBC: @AmyMcGrathKY raises $2.5 million in first 24 hours of her campaign against @senatemajldr https://www.nbcnews.com/card/mcgrath-raises-record-2-5-million-first-day-senate-campaign-n1028121 …
Team McConnell isn't talking $$ yet. But advisors say they anticipate every "left wing lunatic" in NY and CA to donate to her campaign — casting her numbers as not reflective of what's happening in KY
7:36 AM - Jul 10, 2019
WASHINGTON — Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Amy McGrath raised more than $2.5 million in the first 24 hours of her campaign against Mitch McConnell — over $1 million of it coming in just the first five and a half hours after she announced, according to her campaign.
McGrath campaign manager Mark Nickolas said it's the most ever raised in the first 24 hours of a Senate campaign. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee says the next closest was former NASA astronaut Mark Kelly, who raised $1 million in his first day of his campaign in Arizona.
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All of the $2.5 million came in online donations with an average donation of $36.15, her campaign manager said. The $2.5 million total doesn't include any additional traditional fundraising money that may have been raised in the form of checks or promised campaign contributions.
The Guardian @guardian
BREAKING: Kim Darroch resigns as UK ambassador to Washington https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jul/10/tory-leadership-latest-news-john-major-threatens-to-take-boris-johnson-to-court-to-stop-him-proroguing-parliament-for-no-deal-brexit-live-news?CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1562756334 …
6:58 AM - Jul 10, 2019
Mission accomplished by Oakeshott.
2.5 mil straight down the hole
That said god damn at Dem enthusiasm
I wonder how much Allison Lundergran Grimes raised in the first 24 hours 6 years ago.
Mark Knoller @markknoller
VP Chief of Staff Marc Short still unable to disclose reason for @VP's sudden unexplained cancellation of his New Hampshire trip last week. "I can't talk about it," Short told reporters this morning. Perhaps "in a few weeks," he said.
8:10 AM - Jul 10, 2019
VP Chief of Staff Marc Short still unable to disclose reason for @VP's sudden unexplained cancellation of his New Hampshire trip last week. "I can't talk about it," Short told reporters this morning. Perhaps "in a few weeks," he said.
8:10 AM - Jul 10, 2019
Last week:
Jennifer Jacobs @JenniferJJacobs
Press: Can you tell us what what happened? Why cancel New Hampshire trip?
Marc Short, who was with Pence when VP was called back to WH: "There will be more later."
Press: When later?
Marc Short: "Weeks from now."@asebenius https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1146124320302936066 …
2:41 PM - Jul 2, 2019
Press: Can you tell us what what happened? Why cancel New Hampshire trip?
Marc Short, who was with Pence when VP was called back to WH: "There will be more later."
Press: When later?
Marc Short: "Weeks from now."@asebenius https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1146124320302936066 …
2:41 PM - Jul 2, 2019
OP
OP
If 2018 was any indication, everyone will be flush with cash next year, whether their race is winnable or not. Please do not stress about it.
AOC is working all sides! Bernard, Forma, now Harris!!
Conspiracy is still real.
Still banking on Pence being replaced on the ticket as the most likely theory.
The fact that you've got multiple presidential candidates scrambling to have their name associated with AOC just makes Pelosi's comments from the other day seem even more dumb, petty, and jealousy fueled.
Larrison Campbell@thisislarrison
I was excited this week to get on the road with Rep. Foster as part of @MSTODAYnews #MSGov coverage. Agree with his conservative politics or not, he's got a vision for MS. It's why I love my job.
Turns out I don't get the chance just bc I'm a womanhttps://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/09/robert-foster-gop-governor-candidate-denies-woman-reporter-access-because-of-her-gender/ …
8:28 PM - Jul 9, 2019
Adam Ganucheau @GanucheauAdam
Rep. Robert Foster, a GOP candidate for Mississippi governor, denied access to reporter @thisislarrison unless she brought along a male colleague.
Campaign: "Perception is everything... Unfortunately, this is the game we're playing right now."https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/09/robert-foster-gop-governor-candidate-denies-woman-reporter-access-because-of-her-gender/ … #msgov
8:13 PM - Jul 9, 2019
Larrison Campbell@thisislarrison
Basically yes. Though I even pointed out that Foster's (male) campaign director would be there the whole time. Still "too risky." https://twitter.com/williams_paige/status/1148750872706527233 …
8:32 PM - Jul 9, 2019
I was excited this week to get on the road with Rep. Foster as part of @MSTODAYnews #MSGov coverage. Agree with his conservative politics or not, he's got a vision for MS. It's why I love my job.
Turns out I don't get the chance just bc I'm a womanhttps://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/09/robert-foster-gop-governor-candidate-denies-woman-reporter-access-because-of-her-gender/ …
8:28 PM - Jul 9, 2019
Adam Ganucheau @GanucheauAdam
Rep. Robert Foster, a GOP candidate for Mississippi governor, denied access to reporter @thisislarrison unless she brought along a male colleague.
Campaign: "Perception is everything... Unfortunately, this is the game we're playing right now."https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/09/robert-foster-gop-governor-candidate-denies-woman-reporter-access-because-of-her-gender/ … #msgov
8:13 PM - Jul 9, 2019
Larrison Campbell@thisislarrison
Basically yes. Though I even pointed out that Foster's (male) campaign director would be there the whole time. Still "too risky." https://twitter.com/williams_paige/status/1148750872706527233 …
Wow. Mississippi GOP governor candidate refused to let a female reporter cover him because it wouldn't look right. Basically he Pence'd her. https://mississippitoday.org/2019/07/09/robert-foster-gop-governor-candidate-denies-woman-reporter-access-because-of-her-gender/ … via @thisislarrison
8:32 PM - Jul 9, 2019
I remember he wanted to do this early in his presidency, in 2017, and... nothing came of it.
That last bullet point is such a good summary of his thought process.
"Other country is doing unfair thing!"
*turns to aides* "We should do unfair thing."
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