US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away

Deleted member 13101 · Jun 5, 2019

Kirblar said:
You can want Trump jailed and also believe that the only way you're getting him in jail is beating him in 2020 at the polls.

Which highlights the fatal flaw there in that it makes this whole thing about Trump, not a country. If this report is true, then she screwed up with that comment, perhaps revealing there isn't as much of a tactic or plan being employed. As for the rest of the caucus, they should take the time to read the Mueller report, then recognize that the subsequent requests for information are being stonewalled. "But my district..." isn't an excuse.

Doof · Jun 5, 2019

Coolluck said:
Do any of you know of a good organization to donate to to help the migrants at the border? I've been feeling so helpless about the shit going down in my own neighborhood back home.

Yeah, RAICES is worth a look.

VectorPrime · Jun 5, 2019

spx54 said:
impeachment is a much quicker and safer way to hold him accountable for his obvious crimes.

and what happens if we lose in 2020? trump will likely never be held accountable. the calculation Pelosi is making doesn't seems to take into account the risks posed by Trump winning in 2020 and the actual likelihood of him being charged after he leaves office.

Also, Pelosi's need to frequently conflate opening an impeachment inquiry with a vote on impeachment is really frustrating.

Opening an impeachment inquiry sets in motion an effectively irreversible sequence of events in the eyes of the public that if timed improperly will end with Trump being acquitted by the Senate just in time to grab every single headline in the lead up to the general election.

And you really can't open an inquiry and not then go fully through with it without the most horrible optics. It's a one way street.

Ogodei · Jun 5, 2019

Kirblar said:
Between 2/3 and 3/4 of the caucus would not vote yes on impeachment right now.

Get the numbers before making inferences based on nothing.

That's what I was suggesting. The committee chairs aren't voted on by the caucus, but I think if she wanted impeachment but for her caucus, she would express as much, at least in private, or at least frame it as a messaging fight that needs to be taken to the voters in the swing districts first.

Kirblar · Jun 5, 2019

spx54 said:
impeachment is a much quicker and safer way to hold him accountable for his obvious crimes.

and what happens if we lose in 2020? trump will likely never be held accountable. the calculation Pelosi is making doesn't seems to take into account the risks posed by Trump winning in 2020 and the actual likelihood of him being charged after he leaves office.

Also, Pelosi's need to frequently conflate opening an impeachment inquiry with a vote on impeachment is really frustrating.

Impeachment does not put Trump in Jail. It removes him from the Presidency. (it also runs a risk of Pence pardoning him, but that shouldnt be part of the calculus.)

If we lose in 2020 things are fucked. So dont lose, no matter who the opponent is.

Autodidact · Jun 5, 2019

Again, impeachment will not "hold him accountable" in the way that people mean. He won't be removed. He'll retain all his powers. It won't stop any of his policies. He will not be imprisoned or fined; there are no penalties besides removal from office and being prohibited from holding future office. And again, we won't even get that because the Senate will not convict!

It will come down to the election, and impeachment is only useful insofar as it weakens him for that election. That's why we have to be mindful of the numbers and polling.

chadskin · Jun 5, 2019

Warren would make an amazing Senate Majority Leader

Autodidact · Jun 5, 2019

Ogodei said:
she would express as much, at least in private

No, she wouldn't. She would never undercut her members and the majority of her caucus that way. She has to be mindful of the people sitting in the seats that gave us the majority. She also knows that nothing is private in DC.

SatelliteOfLove · Jun 5, 2019

The cruelty news is on the anniversary of the original caged kids reveal.

spx54 said:
since when did you need to tax dollars to raise the minimum wage lmfao

Theres some internal pollster for the GOP out this week that was 90% bad news for 2020 and 10% high partisan energy around AOC and mislabeled socialism (AKA SOCIAMALISMIZ).

I predicted it, and thus is it so.

spx54 · Jun 5, 2019

Kirblar said:
Impeachment does not put Trump in Jail. It removes him from the Presidency. (it also runs a risk of Pence pardoning him, but that shouldnt be part of the calculus.)

If we lose in 2020 things are fucked. So dont lose, no matter who the opponent is.

Yeah, duh.

It holds him accountable in the sense that it could possibly deter future criminal action, even if you don't get a conviction.

as for the argument that its only for weakening him in the election, that is why impeachment proceedings should be opened quickly (even if you don't necessarily vote on articles of impeachment). Airing out his crimes and misdeeds in public would undoubtedly damage him. But Pelosi doesn't even want that.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

LordByron28 said:
VA? They've gone blue and I dont see them going back, at least with statewide elections. House seats are questionable. I think the battleground states that Democrats need to focus a lot of energy on is Arizona, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. At least in terms of Senate and Presidential election. For the presidential election there are a few more to really focus on like Pennsylvania.

As a Minnesotan I don't see why you would spend more time here than VA. Sure you have to campaign here but statewide isn't going red for anything.

Teggy · Jun 5, 2019

Ivanka is so dummmmmmmmmb

Also, tucker is having a real tough time with Warren

aspiegamer · Jun 5, 2019

Teggy said:
Ivanka is so dummmmmmmmmb

What the fucking fuck? Her father hasn't even committed any major war crimes yet! ...Probably.

Ogodei · Jun 5, 2019

spx54 said:
Yeah, duh.

It holds him accountable in the sense that it could possibly deter future criminal action, even if you don't get a conviction.

as for the argument that its only for weakening him in the election, that is why impeachment proceedings should be opened quickly (even if you don't necessarily vote on articles of impeachment). Airing out his crimes and misdeeds in public would undoubtedly damage him. But Pelosi doesn't even want that.

I'd argue it wouldn't. You see how he is with the whole "not guilty means innocent" thing. The only way you can stop a guy like him is by seriously smacking him down and not threatening to.

Grexeno · Jun 5, 2019

spx54 said:
Yeah, duh.

It holds him accountable in the sense that it could possibly deter future criminal action, even if you don't get a conviction.

as for the argument that its only for weakening him in the election, that is why impeachment proceedings should be opened quickly (even if you don't necessarily vote on articles of impeachment). Airing out his crimes and misdeeds in public would undoubtedly damage him. But Pelosi doesn't even want that.

I don't see how not getting convicted by the Senate deters future criminal action. If anything it just takes the shackles off and you do whatever you want.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

gaugebozo said:
Jesus fucking Christ. You guys I just can't. The prideful ignorance. Nobody tell them about metric time.

Tucker is somehow the master of having the exact same face in all screen caps even while he's talking.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

Impeachment also establishes a concrete historical record for prosecution so I don't really understand where pelosi is at right now.

aspiegamer · Jun 5, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
Tucker is somehow the master of having the exact same face in all screen caps even while he's talking.

"Is my future as a wealthy, white male at risk?"

Kirblar · Jun 5, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
As a Minnesotan I don't see why you would spend more time here than VA. Sure you have to campaign here but statewide isn't going red for anything.

You need literal zero time in VA. State's blue.

SquirrelSr · Jun 5, 2019

Surprised that they still don't have support for impeachment in the House of all places.

AnotherNils · Jun 5, 2019

I'm curious if the committee chairs have a sense that their members are pro-impeachment. Because I don't see why they'd be pro-impeachment if their own members weren't with them. Perhaps it's only a few committees. Otherwise, I get the feeling Pelosi is downplaying the amount of support out there because she sees impeachment as a political loser.

(I don't think impeachment could pass now, but I also think she doesn't want the idea to gain traction)

Ogodei · Jun 5, 2019

AnotherNils said:
I'm curious if the committee chairs have a sense that their members are pro-impeachment. Because I don't see why they'd be pro-impeachment if their own members weren't with them. Perhaps it's only a few committees. Otherwise, I get the feeling Pelosi is downplaying the amount of support out there because she sees impeachment as a political loser.

(I don't think impeachment could pass now, but I also think she doesn't want the idea to gain traction)

This is a clearer way of stating my thoughts on it. I think there isn't support for it now but that, against her own moral feelings on the matter, Pelosi's putting her thumb on the scale to try and keep it that way.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

Kirblar said:
You need literal zero time in VA. State's blue.

You really think it's more blue than MN???

And also zero time in states you think are safe worked really well in 16.

spx54 · Jun 5, 2019

what I'm essentially getting at regarding deterring future criminal action by Trump:

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

spx54 said:
what I'm essentially getting at regarding deterring future criminal action by Trump:

It isn't that simple though

https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-powers-does-formal-impeachment-inquiry-give-house

Dr. Feel Good · Jun 5, 2019

What I'm afraid is going to happen is the right wing media will actually back off Warren as she gains momentum and go in hard against Biden. It will ultimately lead to creating a show down between her vs. Biden... in which she unfortunately loses. It will create a self defeating narrative across her voter base while also creating a very toxic u-turn (thanks to the aggresssive conservative narrative) on Biden toward Trump, effectively leading to a repeat of 2016.

Ortix · Jun 5, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
You really think it's more blue than MN???

And also zero time in states you think are safe worked really well in 16.

If you have to worry about Virginia, you're fucked regardless.

Autodidact · Jun 5, 2019

Dr. Feel Good said:
effectively leading to a repeat of 2016.

If you rerun 2016 but give our candidate a dick, we win. Don't tell me that sexism wouldn't cost a woman 70,000 votes, and probably a hell of a lot more.

ZOONAMI said:
You really think it's more blue than MN???

And also zero time in states you think are safe worked really well in 16.

Let's not do this for the umpteenth time. She planted her ass in PA and still lost; spent a decent amount of time in OH and still lost. Campaigned frequently in NC and still lost.

LegendofJoe · Jun 5, 2019

Wtf at Tucker Carlson?!? Our politics are in the process of being completely upended. We're living in interesting times.

Ogodei · Jun 5, 2019

Dr. Feel Good said:
What I'm afraid is going to happen is the right wing media will actually back off Warren as she gains momentum and go in hard against Biden. It will ultimately lead to creating a show down between her vs. Biden... in which she unfortunately loses. It will create a self defeating narrative across her voter base while also creating a very toxic u-turn (thanks to the aggresssive conservative narrative) on Biden toward Trump, effectively leading to a repeat of 2016.

Right wing media's not that smart. They're very good at manipulating their audience and people adjacent to their audience and have little understanding of the other side. They only understand us when we imitate them, like how they saw a portion of Sanders supporters hating Hillary, which (Hillary Hate) was something they understood and could act on.

It's why the "Creepy Joe" efforts come off flat.

Ortix · Jun 5, 2019

Dr. Feel Good said:
What I'm afraid is going to happen is the right wing media will actually back off Warren as she gains momentum and go in hard against Biden. It will ultimately lead to creating a show down between her vs. Biden... in which she unfortunately loses. It will create a self defeating narrative across her voter base while also creating a very toxic u-turn (thanks to the aggresssive conservative narrative) on Biden toward Trump, effectively leading to a repeat of 2016.

1) 2020 Trump will not be 2016 Trump. Trump is an immensely unpopular president. If we ran the same Hillary against current Trump, she'd win.
2) Biden is not Hillary. He doesn't have 10 years worth of bullshit propaganda baggage. Oy yeah, and he's a man. His favourables are way up compared to Hillary's.
3) It was very, very close. Comey's letter, Hillary's "fainting", her not doing enough campaigning in key states (arguably), dnc hack, etc. If any of those did not happen, we'd likely have Hillary Clinton running for reelection right now.

Iolo · Jun 5, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
You really think it's more blue than MN???

And also zero time in states you think are safe worked really well in 16.

Hillary won VA by 5.3% and MN by only 1.5%. Trump also lost the primary in VA to Rubio of all people. Trump is toxic there and shit's blue in 2020 unless we are completely screwed.

edit: I misremembered the primaries. Trump nearly lost to Rubio in VA and did lose in MN. Nevertheless, I think my other point still stands. Either that or Tim Kaine is truly electoral gold.

Autodidact · Jun 5, 2019

A couple of things are true: VA's headed toward safe blue status, and MN's still very likely blue. Trump didn't improve on Romney's vote share at all there; Hillary simply lost votes and third parties performed relatively well. It wasn't technically a reddening so much as discontent in our own ranks. That won't be a problem in MN in 2020. The state will go Democratic.

spx54 · Jun 5, 2019

Ortix said:
1) 2020 Trump will not be 2016 Trump. Trump is an immensely unpopular president. If we ran the same Hillary against current Trump, she'd win.
2) Biden is not Hillary. He doesn't have 10 years worth of bullshit propaganda baggage. Oy yeah, and he's a man. His favourables are way up compared to Hillary's.
3) It was very, very close. Comey's letter, Hillary's "fainting", her not doing enough campaigning in key states (arguably), dnc hack, etc. If any of those did not happen, we'd likely have Hillary Clinton running for reelection right now.

he's not Hillary but biden has all sorts of baggage (crime bill, Anita hill, Iraq war, busing, credit card bill)

and actually, the latest yougov and CNN polls have his favorables in free fall. Just like Hillary, his favorables were high when he wasn't in the ring. Now he's in it, and they will probably get worse.

Deleted member 7462 · Jun 5, 2019

In retrospect, I wish Hillary had been Obama's VP. She would have had enough of that "Obama's third term" shine to pull it out, and she'd be a better POTUS than Joe Biden.

Is what it is.

I really do think Biden is going to win. Anecdotally, I hear a lot of, "Oh, he was Obama's VP" in a favorable way when people talk about who is running (and people really are not paying attention right now, but when it comes up, people clarify if he's running and immediately point out that he was Obama's VP in a tone that seems to say that they approve).

I also hear people, not even liberals I don't think, but white people who I wouldn't guess were really voting Democratic like that say that they would vote for Obama again right now if he could run. I think that association is going to carry Biden. It's obviously SSS, but Obama is still popular as fuck out in these streets.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

Iolo said:
Hillary won VA by 5.3% and MN by only 1.5%. Trump also lost the primary in VA to Rubio of all people. Trump is toxic there and shit's blue in 2020 unless we are completely screwed.

edit: I misremembered the primaries. Trump nearly lost to Rubio in VA and did lose in MN. Nevertheless, I think my other point still stands. Either that or Tim Kaine is truly electoral gold.

I mean yeah having your VP from a state does matter. And imo kaine was a historically bad VP pick. He helped in VA but here in MN everyone i know was like what the fuck with that vp pick. I actually think he did more harm than good everywhere other than VA.

And yeah Autodidact s post above. I consider MN completely safe given it hasn't gone red in a presidential basically ever and walz kicking ass in 18.

Doesn't mean "you don't have to campaign here."

Imo a pres candidate should be making at least 2 stops in every state and multiply that by 10-20 for swing States.

You ain't got time for that then don't run.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 5, 2019

UnapologeticallyBLK said:
In retrospect, I wish Hillary had been Obama's VP. She would have had enough of that "Obama's third term" shine to pull it out, and she'd be a better POTUS than Joe Biden.

Is what it is.

I really do think Biden is going to win. Anecdotally, I hear a lot of, "Oh, he was Obama's VP" in a favorable way when people talk about who is running (and people really are not paying attention right now, but when it comes up, people clarify if he's running and immediately point out that he was Obama's VP in a tone that seems to say that they approve).

I also hear people, not even liberals I don't think, butwhite people who I wouldn't guess were really voting Democratic like that say that they would vote for Obama again right now if he could run. I think that association is going to carry Biden. It's obviously SSS, but Obama is still popular as fuck out in these streets.

I don't think Biden will win CA and it will sink him.

Kirblar · Jun 5, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
You really think it's more blue than MN???

And also zero time in states you think are safe worked really well in 16.

Yes. It is not going red statewide any time in the near future.

VA is right next to DC. We don't really need all that much exposure to candidates.

Deleted member 17092 · Jun 6, 2019

Kirblar said:
Yes. It is not going red statewide any time in the near future.

VA is right next to DC. We don't really need all that much exposure to candidates.

MN isn't going statewide red in the near future either. Doesn't mean you can ignore campaigns in either state.

Also MN state Senate will go blue in 20. We have a dfl house and govr, and the Senate we will get. We're down by 1.

Kirblar · Jun 6, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
MN isn't going statewide red in the near future either. Doesn't mean you can ignore campaigns in either state.

Also MN state Senate will go blue in 20. We have a dfl house and govr, and the Senate we will get. We're down by 1.

You can stop by in Richmond or w/e. We're blanketed in political coverage here because of our proximity to DC.

Autodidact · Jun 6, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
Also MN state Senate will go blue in 20. We have a dfl house and govr, and the Senate we will get. We're down by 1.

Two, actually, since Walz poached a Democratic senator in a Trump district for his cabinet and a Republican won the special election. It's still eminently flippable next year, though.

MarioW · Jun 6, 2019

UnapologeticallyBLK said:
In retrospect, I wish Hillary had been Obama's VP. She would have had enough of that "Obama's third term" shine to pull it out, and she'd be a better POTUS than Joe Biden.

Hard to know where the outcome of the election would have ended up, but at the very least watching Clinton mop the floor with Palin in the VP debates would have been amazing.

Autodidact · Jun 6, 2019

MarioW said:
Hard to know where the outcome of the election would have ended up, but at the very least watching Clinton mop the floor with Palin in the VP debates would have been amazing.

We would've won.

We had a great candidate and a movement, but the GOP was radioactive that year.

Suiko · Jun 6, 2019

ZOONAMI said:
It isn't that simple though

https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-powers-does-formal-impeachment-inquiry-give-house

Finally, someone with knowledge tries to answer that question...
and even then with barely any answer, cause there is not one.

Bottom line, it's possible judges may side with congressional investigators more so if it's under impeachment instead of 'balance of powers', and it may expedite court dates.
As I suspected, there are no clear powers granted to 'impeachment'. Certainly not enough to jump head first into it and hope everything works out.

chadskin · Jun 6, 2019

Finally a campaign shirt for us

https://teechip.com/AnybodyElse2020

Soul Skater · Jun 6, 2019

Iolo said:
Hillary won VA by 5.3% and MN by only 1.5%. Trump also lost the primary in VA to Rubio of all people. Trump is toxic there and shit's blue in 2020 unless we are completely screwed.

edit: I misremembered the primaries. Trump nearly lost to Rubio in VA and did lose in MN. Nevertheless, I think my other point still stands. Either that or Tim Kaine is truly electoral gold.

Hard to really draw any conclusions from that because of Tim Kaine. She could have won it by less than a percent or even lost it without him for all we know

Chaos Legion · Jun 6, 2019

Kirblar said:
Yes. It is not going red statewide any time in the near future.

VA is right next to DC. We don't really need all that much exposure to candidates.

I don't know, I'm wary as a native son. I don't believe "Ol' Virginny" is dead yet.

For Trump and 2020, I'd call it safe. Longer term...eh. Depends on what the post-Trump Republican Party looks like.

This actually makes me feel sad, the Republican Party had reasonable and intelligent members like John Warner. What the fuck happened.

LordByron28 · Jun 6, 2019

Soul Skater said:
Hard to really draw any conclusions from that because of Tim Kaine. She could have won it by less than a percent or even lost it without him for all we know

I dont think Tim Kaine brought in a single vote. He offered nothing to the table except being able to speak Spanish.

Chaos Legion said:
I don't know, I'm wary as a native son. I don't believe "Ol' Virginny" is dead yet.

For Trump and 2020, I'd call it safe. Longer term...eh. Depends on what the post-Trump Republican Party looks like.

This actually makes me feel sad, the Republican Party had reasonable and intelligent members like John Warner. What the fuck happened.

We're quickly swearing off states that voted red in 2016 and 2014 but cant accept VA as blue. I was mistaken with mentioning Minnesota as a larger priority. However, VA has voted blue in every statewide election since 2006. It's been over 15 years since we have voted Red. There are huge changing demographs that are steering the state further blue with each passing year. I'm not sure why this is that much of a debate

Autodidact · Jun 6, 2019

LordByron28 said:
has voted blue in every statewide election since 2006

2009. Bob McDonnell won a term.

loquaciousJenny · Jun 6, 2019

UnapologeticallyBLK said:
In retrospect, I wish Hillary had been Obama's VP. She would have had enough of that "Obama's third term" shine to pull it out, and she'd be a better POTUS than Joe Biden.

Is what it is.

But would she still have personally killed Ben Ghazi

US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away

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