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Nov 14, 2017
2,334
I think the more alarming thing is the removal of the reserve requirement.

This is basically setting the stage for one really really REALLY dumb bank to have liquidity issues should a run on them happen.
Yeah when I saw that it freaked me out. US Bank already got a warning last week from playing the margins way too thin that the FED wasn't going to bail them out and now just 5 days later they are saying - "Hey forget about that whole having enough money to cover your asses you can use almost all your money if you want"
No. Reserve ratios are not the backstop of prudential regulation and the Fed getting rid of them is just bringing it into line with many other central banks.
 

ss1

Member
Oct 27, 2017
805
This is going to be a deep and brutal recession. Very much survival of the fittest now for companies. Those that have access to liquidity that seem them through several months of low-to-no revenue are the best placed to survive the storm that is about to land.
 

Chairman Yang

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,587
It's a bit of a commitment, but for anyone who wants to understand these sorts of moves, I recommend videos from Khan Academy:

www.khanacademy.org

Money, banking and central banks | Khan Academy

Learn for free about math, art, computer programming, economics, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine, finance, history, and more. Khan Academy is a nonprofit with the mission of providing a free, world-class education for anyone, anywhere.
 

Culex

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
6,844
Overnight lending rates have been brought to near-zero to help the banks. With the massive rate cuts that were just done, this literally imploded many banks balance sheets as they were expecting a rate of return much higher than the .75% drop.

This was done to prevent a one-two punch of businesses going poof, and then your bank going poof.
 

Deleted member 62561

Dec 31, 2019
539
It's a bit of a commitment, but for anyone who wants to understand these sorts of moves, I recommend videos from Khan Academy:

www.khanacademy.org

Money, banking and central banks | Khan Academy

Learn for free about math, art, computer programming, economics, physics, chemistry, biology, medicine, finance, history, and more. Khan Academy is a nonprofit with the mission of providing a free, world-class education for anyone, anywhere.

bookmarking. thanks.
 

NTGYK

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
3,470
Sooooo... I work in building materials/construction in Vancouver, does this mean anything for me
 

shnurgleton

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,864
Boston
This will accomplish fuck all. The problem is, nobody is going to be working and nobody is going to be spending, and rate cuts aren't going to be an incentive when people can't even go to work. We need a fiscal stimulus in the form of direct cash payments and sick leave subsidies if we're going to get through this without suffering a very deep recession
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
Get a grip dude

Low credit lending for businesses is a big deal - this isn't a panacea but it could help prop up parts of the economy

On my grip - This interest rate cut may be a great thing. It may do wonders for the economy and we'll get some idea Monday morning onwards.

I have no issue with the policy or the decision in a vacuum - only the recent (literally yesterday when Trump was cornered on Live TV and asked why he hadn't gotten rid of Powell for not lowering interest rates BEFORE Coronavirus) and less recent (Trump and Powell's entire professional relationship where he has threatened, complained and cajoled Powell And been frudstrated that he can't simply fire him) historical context - which is hugely problematic and begs consideration.

As I've already stated, Powell has shown tremendous resilience and independence so far - and Trump has done everything in his pwoer to pressure Powell to lower interest rates without the slightest concern or understanding of the broader economic impact. It's also - because of that, nowhere near as big a jolt or pressure release as it would have been in a normal Fed situation - it's a huge deal, but a drop to zero from record lows in the first place. And for an economy some have argued has been artificially buoyed in the first place - and argued by reasonable economists rather than doomsayers.

The fact that this extremely fraught and potentially risky decision was made in that context is important to remember. Nowhere have I suggested that this rate decision won't or can't work, or isn't a good idea. Only that it's happening in an exceptionally volatile situation and directly feeds into a demand Trump has made non stop with or without cause.


This might be the best possible decision - but it's a decision made in a preexisting atmosphere of externalities that are not related to the financial crisis at hand. Fed chairmen have ALWAYS been under pressure from administrations but it's usually backroom, behind the scenes, proxy whining or diplomatic outreach - not insulting and inflammatory rhetoric from the president.
 

RetroGiant

Member
Oct 25, 2017
592
We have 30k in savings and 10k in the regular bank account. Savings doesn't really give us any interest regardless so does this have much effect on me/my money? I am looking to refinance the house.
 

WoahW

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,974
All this means is the big national banks will start pushing out risky loans again and end up needing bailed out. Happened in 2008 and I doubt they learned fuck all. I'm just thankful the bank I work at doesn't change our stance when things like this happen. Hell we actually grew when other banks were going under because we didn't start throwing cash at risky loans
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
Any posters talking about "they said we needed money for M4A" really need to please go through one of those online courses on the fed and monetary policy. Because the Fed doesn't spend money. The fed exists because you can't just print money constantly to pay for massive deficit spending on social programs every year. That leads to massive inflation and potential hyperinflation. Having an independent organization manage this is done because executive and legislative elected officials have a long, storied history of those bad monetary policy management behaviors when given the opportunity.

However, the Fed is basically out of options. They've done all they can, it's on congress to get emergency spending bills in place.

 

sfedai0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,963
We have 30k in savings and 10k in the regular bank account. Savings doesn't really give us any interest regardless so does this have much effect on me/my money? I am looking to refinance the house.

This has nothing to do with the laughable interest they offer with their checking/savings accounts. If you havent refi and your mortgage interest is above 4%? Yes, do it now.
 

Ether_Snake

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,306

Mortgage rate rise increases pressure for Fed intervention

Traders say liquidity in market for bonds backed by American home loans is drying up
American consumers are feeling the impact. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage spiked to 4.12 per cent on Friday, up from 3.55 per cent at the beginning of the month and the highest since June 2019, according to Bankrate.com.

I'm hearing rates have been going up anyway. Are we sure they'll drop? Do banks really want to take more risk? They don't HAVE to lend.
 

WoahW

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,974

Mortgage rate rise increases pressure for Fed intervention

Traders say liquidity in market for bonds backed by American home loans is drying up


I'm hearing rates have been going up anyway. Are we sure they'll drop? Do banks really want to take more risk? They don't HAVE to lend.

This is primarily for businesses, this is almost the exact same shit as 2008 the only reason we got into mass trouble back then was banks didn't care and started throwing it around like Monopoly money and had to be bailed out. Hoping with the string period we've had they avoid that this go around.

Why lots of people are acting like the sky is falling and everything is done I don't know. The biggest wildcard in all of this is the virus itself, if we start getting warm temps and the virus can't survive warm temps all this could be moot
 

golguin

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,759
My current mortgage rate is 3.875% for 30 year loan. What can I expect to see for refinancing?
 

Sidebuster

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,408
California
Bruceleeroy Can I ask, my parents (in Ca) are under contract selling their small business (auto service) + land that'll close early May. Is this better for the buyer trying to get a loan or is there a chance with everything going that it would be better for them to break the contract?

They barely weathered 08 and are almost retired. I'm a bit worried that everything is falling apart and will ruin their retirement plans.
 

entremet

You wouldn't toast a NES cartridge
Member
Oct 26, 2017
60,197
The only one not understanding the "macro" view is Stinkles . You dudes just look at rates and nothing else, what about the standing swap lines that help foreign central banks deal with dollar funding issues, why not point to that as being pretty fucking important.
We're still not in an official recession. What other wiggle room will we have if we do have a recession?
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
Why lots of people are acting like the sky is falling and everything is done I don't know. The biggest wildcard in all of this is the virus itself, if we start getting warm temps and the virus can't survive warm temps all this could be moot

Warm weather will not save us, that has been debunked for a while.
 

Bruceleeroy

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,381
Orange County
I know all of you were waiting with bated breath on what would happen this morning. Tried to cover all bases but if anything is confusing just PM or hit me up.

 

B.O.O.M.

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,763
I missed this thread but just so everyone has an idea who I am (Broker in California, does loans primarily on the west coast) Because I have broker access to the wholesale banks (Quickens, Loan Depot, UWM etc). Direct Lender (American Financial..) and have 3 licensed individuals on the team with retail banks (Bank of America, CitiBank and US Bank) I get pretty much all updates across the financial spectrum.

Huge thing to know about the FED cutting rates:
  1. It doesn't mean that interest rate will go lower than what they were at when they plummeted but it means they will most certainly be lower than they were this week because we had the worst jump in rates since the 2016 election.
  2. Rates going down had less to do with what the FED is doing and wayyyyyyy more to do with the volume of financing that were flooding into banks. Everyone and their mother wanted to refinance which meant the reserves the banks need to keep was getting depleted at an alarming rate to meet the demand. Normally the bank then RESELLS those mortgage notes on the secondary market to recoup the funds needed to keep lending but that didn't happen. Notes or MBS (Mortgage backed securities) were not being sold off quick enough to replenish those funds. Why? Because the secondary market didn't want a bunch of 30 year or 15 year mortgages at low 3s. So banks had to cut the cost of the notes till they were barely breaking even just to get some money back in the tank to re-lend. TO SLOW DOWN this onslaught banks raised rates dramatically.
  3. The FED is promising they are going to help increase purchases of these notes so that banks can get more money to lend and thus lower rates because the risk is being offset
  4. That however, does not mean that banks have the capacity to handle that much volume (Most banks are pushing refinances out 60 days) so again its up to the discretion of most banks to throttle (raise rates) till they have the ability to meet demand
  5. The FED reducing the reserve requirement is likely a BAD IDEA. The reserve requirement is there to begin with because its to make sure banks don't lend out more money then they can fulfill from their own liquid reserves. YOU DONT WANT TO BE PROMISING TO LEND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHEN YOU HAVE MILLIONS IN RESERVES.
  6. The FED doesn't think that is a huge risk because they are promising again to buy these notes at an increased volume which should theoretically help keep those reserves higher.
  7. The CoronaVirus is and will be the wild card factor to all of this. WHAT IF ESCROW DEPARTMENT OR BANKING INSTITUTIONS ARE MANDATED TO have all on site personal be remote. The will massively DELAY loans from funding. The longer they delay the more risk it is for the bank to hold those rates.

WHAT DO I DO IF I AM IN THE MIDDLE OF A PURCHASE?
  1. If you have a locked interest rate from before the huge spike in rates (Basically from Tuesday - Friday) there is a good chance you will get a better rate. Keep your lock but shop around starting tomorrow. Most banks will try and price match on a purchase so if you find a better rate AWESOME your current lender will likely match.
  2. Delaying escrow on the West Coast is a pretty much assured thing because of the corona virus. Everyone is getting a free pass with delays so use this to your advantage. If it means closing a couple days later cause you want to see what the rates do then DO IT
WHAT IF I AM REFINANCING?
  1. If you haven't applied with a lender and you want to explore your options DO SO NOW! We are all being worked to the bone right now and me and every lender I know are prioritizing people with apps that we know are qualified. DO NOT TEXT OR EMAIL YOUR LENDER CONSTANTLY ASKING "WHERE ARE RATES AT?" with NO APPLICATION in because he just won't have the time to look and with rates moving as quickly as they are whatever rate he quotes you will likely no longer be there by the time your application is in.
  2. If you have a LOCKED rate right now and it is awesome DO NOT JEPORADIZE that rate. Some banks will look for reasons to cancel that rate on you. That can only happen if you miss your lock period. They will negotiate a high cost to EXTEND that rate.
  3. If you are early in the refinance and haven't locked then watch what rates do. When they drop LOCK it in. You can always jump ship to another bank advertising better rates but for right now protect yourself.
Ill post an update on the market and what it is doing on the rate front for everyone tomorrow so you can all be armed and prepared.

sigh being a non-citizen with a student loan sucks all kinds of ass....(because unless I am mistaken you basically need ot be one to do it correct?) shit sucks

But thanks for the info btw. Very good read